Right on Target

Jaron Foster

cruzWhen your favorite preseason sleeper hauls in a 52-yard bomb in the first five seconds of the first Monday Night Football game of the season, you may be quick to look past his team’s defensive, run-first philosophy. To many, spontaneous reactions are much more interesting than crunching the numbers and trend analysis. However, those dedicated to dynasty leagues are well aware that success relies on much more than gut feelings. Considering key variables such as offensive philosophy are important, but nothing beats experience. In the case of identifying future opportunity, tangible experience can come in the form of recent trend analysis.

In an effort to predict future value and assuming your receivers can catch and hold on to the passes thrown their way, one of the best statistics to forecast receptions is targets. Through the first three weeks, the number of receivers with ten or more targets is broken down in the table below:

stats1

When you total targets, however, the story changes from one of depth to one of inconsistency. Only 14 players have averaged at least ten targets per week. Notable names that had at least one week of ten or more targets who fall off this new list include Steve Smith (Car) (averaging 6.3 targets per week), Marques Colston (6.3), Lance Moore (7.3), Andre Johnson (6.0) and Stevie Johnson (8.7).

Within the group of 14 heavily targeted receivers are 12 who were thrown to less than ten times at least once, meaning their opportunities have not been as consistent as the top two receivers. This group includes (in order starting with most total targets): Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Victor Cruz, Danny Amendola, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, Dennis Pitta, Jimmy Graham, and DeSean Jackson. To the surprise of nobody reading this, the two receivers who have had at least 11 targets each week are AJ Green and Percy Harvin.

Many of these names you’d expect in any list of top-14 receivers, but some important observations can be pulled from these statistics.

–       Wayne has caught 23 of the whopping 40 passes thrown his way for 294 yards, or 7.7 receptions and 98 yards per game. As he builds rapport with Andrew Luck, the 57.5% reception rate should increase. With the occasional touchdown thrown in, you’re looking at a very reliable PPR receiver.

–       Bowe was targeted 31 times in weeks two and three alone, which is more than all but 12 receivers in the NFL for all three weeks combined. Concern over his holdout and the hype around Jon Baldwin (ten targets total this season) has been silenced.

–       Cruz’ statistics reflect his increased use in the slot as he has averaged just over 12 yards per reception, down from nearly 19 last year. Likely more the result of the Giants offensive personnel changes than his skill set, Cruz is on pace for well over 100 catches – just don’t expect as many YAC as last year.

–       Amendola just barely misses joining Green and Harvin as Sam Bradford looked his way “only” nine times in week three. Although a 37-point (PPR) week against Washington stands out, Amendola is averaging 13.6 yards per catch and 11.5 fantasy points per game in his down weeks. In a big group of average receivers for St. Louis, he’s the guy you want.

–       It’s hard to believe that someone other than Marshall has the biggest attitude problem in the Bears offense, though a shift in his direction is probably only a matter of time. He has only caught 16 of his 31 targets, but the fact is that he’s the ninth most targeted receiver in football. I’m excited for the dynasty prospects of Alshon Jeffery, especially once the Bears address their o-line issues over the next couple of years, but for now Marshall is clearly Jay Cutler’s go-to guy.

–       Lloyd was a very polarizing player in the off-season given his immense potential, but also his need to suddenly share the spotlight with several talented playmakers. Through three weeks, however, it’s been all about Lloyd. With 22 receptions on 33 targets, he’s the guy Tom Brady is focusing on. Incidentally, with all the talk about Wes Welker’s declining role in the Patriots’ offense, he is second on the team with 26 targets and Rob Gronkowski’s 14 receptions have come on only 18 targets.

–       Dubbed “American Express” by Terrell Suggs last year because “he’s everywhere you want him to be,” Dennis Pitta is averaging 16 fantasy points per game and is dominating the middle of the field for Baltimore. As a second year tight end in 2011, he showed flashes with seven or more targets in 25% of the Ravens’ games. The 18 receptions and 31 targets is promising for Pitta’s future outlook, but even with increased production, the nickname is a bit of a stretch.

–       Jackson has the lowest reception rate of any player with 30 or more targets, catching only 14 of Michael Vick’s passes in his direction. His receiving average of 16.7 yards per catch is on pace with his 2011 statistics, but far below the 20 yards per catch he averaged in 2009 and 2010 seasons. Still, it’s promising that he’s still being heavily targeted. Given how far he has fallen out of favor with dynasty owners (and understandably so), it’s to the point where he’s becoming a decent value as a late-round draft pick or trade throw-in.

Other players worth noting with regards to targets include Kendall Wright, who has seen his targets increase each week (from 6 to 8 to 11) despite inconsistent quarterback play and the return of Kenny Britt; Kevin Ogletree, who isn’t completely going away with as many week three targets as Dez Bryant; and Coby Fleener, who started strong with ten targets in week one but has only been thrown to six times combined in weeks two and three, may lose some looks to fellow rookie (and superior blocker) Dwayne Allen.

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