Early Season Scoring Breakdown
If you drafted Robert Griffin III, CJ Spiller and Danny Amendola in your dynasty start-up draft and promptly proclaimed each of these players would be the scoring leaders at their respective positions after two weeks of the season, you would have been either laughed at or kicked out of your league for being an idiot.
The problem right now is you likely would have been right.
Part of the fun in dynasty leagues is evaluating the early season scoring and attempting to decipher fact from fiction. After all, if you can accurately evaluate player scoring trends early and do a relatively sound job of predicting the future, you can determine trade targets or identify players on your team you want to move.
With that being said, here are some things I know, I think and I wish I knew – at least that’s what I think, or know. Well, maybe I don’t know. Ahh forget it, here’s the list:
Things I Know
Robert Griffin III is for real. He’s the leading scorer at the all-important quarterback position in most scoring formats after two weeks and it’s no mirage. While it’s extremely unlikely he ends up as the overall QB1, there’s no doubting the fact he’s quickly becoming a top tier, plug and play type of starter. If he can put up these kinds of numbers in his first two starts, there’s really no telling where the ceiling is. While teams will certainly start game planning more for him and attempt to take away some of his strengths, he has the athletic ability and elite talent to be a dynasty pillar for the next decade. What he’s doing as a rookie is astounding.
Matt Ryan has a legitimate chance to be the fantasy MVP this season. The only speed reference we’ve seen associated with Michael Turner lately is in relation to his arrest after being pulled over after drinking and driving this week. With a wide open offense that’s built around Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White and not around Turner any longer, the sky’s the limit for Matty Ice and he’s really taking advantage.
Reggie Bush has turned a corner in his career. After avoiding contact and bouncing runs outside back in New Orleans, Bush has finally learned how to be a real NFL running back in Miami. In his last six regular season games, he has 760 rushing yards, 17 catches, 130 receiving yards, four touchdowns and has averaged over six yards per carry. He’s hit the holes hard up the middle, hasn’t shyed away from contact and finally has stayed healthy for an extended period of time. He was easily the RB2 of the year last season and this year, he’s looked closer to a RB1.
Danny Amendola won’t be this year’s top receiver. While that much is pretty obvious, his play is still noteworthy. Sure, he’s at the top of the scoring chart because of a career game, but he’s quickly becoming very relevant again in PPR leagues. Kudos to a bunch of our writers who were adamant in their belief this would happen this off-season.
Victor Cruz is not a one year wonder. There was still some doubt in many leagues about his ability to really put up the same type of production in 2012, but it’s obvious he’s here to stay, especially considering he’s leading the entire NFL in targets after two weeks. The salsa dance is going to be a staple in the NFL for many years to come.
If he plays every week, Aaron Rodgers won’t finish outside the top five in quarterback scoring – you can still bet the house on this one.
Percy Harvin is still underrated in many dynasty leagues. He’s in the top six in most leagues in terms of wide receiver scoring and has yet to even score a touchdown. He’s been targeted 21 times and caught 18 of them. Any questions?
Michael Vick continues to be the riskiest player to own in a dynasty league because of his injury risk. Ironically, Vick should be watching RGIII to learn how to avoid those costly hits. I heard a commentator put it best the other day when they said, “The problem with Michael Vick is he can’t throw the ball away because he just won’t accept the fact that every play can’t somehow be spectacular.”
The demise of Reggie Wayne was greatly exaggerated. After two games, Wayne has 15 catches for 206 yards and a touchdown on 25 targets (second in the league). He’s getting older, but he could be the ultimate buy candidate for contending dynasty teams this season.
Jimmy Graham is amazing. It was going to be extremely tough for him to justify his high ADP this off-season, but he’s doing just that with 13 catches, 156 yards and two touchdowns in his first two games – there just doesn’t seem to be an end in sight.
Dwayne Bowe continues to be one of the most underrated players in dynasty leagues. Sure, he has some clunkers here and there and you’d love to see some consistency, but there isn’t another high end player I can think of who gets less respect nationally than Bowe.
The run of huge games for Calvin Johnson is on its way.
The time to buy on Mike Wallace is right now. He’s started off a little slowly (nine catches for 111 yards), but his two touchdowns have salvaged his scoring days. Once he’s comfortable in the offense, his numbers are going to go up across the board.
The days in Tampa Bay for LeGarrette Blount are numbered. Doug Martin has completely taken over and Blount is the odd man out for the Bucs.
If Arian Foster is ever injured or Ben Tate finds himself in a similar type of running offense in a couple of years, Tate is a future RB1 in dynasty leagues. He’s an even more viable flex option as a backup again this season.
Shonn Greene is never going to be anything other than a weak flex option in dynasty leagues. He’s been given every opportunity in the world to be successful and is still averaging just three yards per carry. At this point, he’s like the Wayne Fontes of running backs. What does he have to do to lose his job?
Deion Branch is not going to be an option in dynasty leagues, even being back in New England.
The days of Marques Colston being a no brainer WR1 are over. Sure, he could just be off to a slow start and is still a very good player, but he’s clearly behind Jimmy Graham in the red zone pecking order and is tied with Lance Moore for third on the team in number of targets, making him more of a high end WR2. This week is big for him as he faces the Chiefs – we’ll know a lot more about his 2012 outlook after this game.
Isaac Redman is nowhere near a starting caliber player in reality or fantasy. With Rashard Mendenhall on his way back and Jonathan Dwyer coming on, the days of fantasy relevance for Redman are fading quickly.
Michael Turner is done. It seemed like all the hyperbole about him just falling off a cliff this year was a little harsh since he still averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, but he has just 74 yards on 28 carries this year (2.6 yards per carry) and has looked awful in the process. It’s hard to say who looks worse between Turner and Shonn Greene and that’s saying something.
There’s no reason to panic if you have Larry Fitzgerald. Yes, he has just five catches for 67 yards and no touchdowns so far this year, but remember you’re in a dynasty league. His numbers revolve directly around the quarterback play for the Cardinals and that’s a problem that can be fixed at some point – you may just have to swallow a tough year.
The days of Braylon Edwards being relevant are over. He earned a roster spot with Seattle and even started in game one, but his subsequent dropped winning touchdown pass in that game, coupled with the return of Golden Tate have him back on the bench. For whatever reason, he’s just not the same player we saw in Cleveland back in 2007.
There’s no reason to panic over Justin Blackmon’s slow start this year. We saw enough in the preseason to know he can play and it’s way too early in the year to start projecting what his numbers will be at the end.
Things I Think I Know
Demaryius Thomas is the receiver to own in Denver. He’s been targeted 18 times to Eric Decker’s 15 and it’s obvious to anyone that his explosiveness, combined with an equal number of targets makes him the Broncos receiver of choice in dynasty leagues. With as much as Decker was talked up this off-season, that was in question.
CJ Spiller is an elite talent who is finally coming in to his own. While the Bills organization honestly (and inexplicably) believes he can’t be trusted as a true workhorse back because they fear his ability to hold up over an entire season, they’re going to have no choice but to test that theory – he’s been too good to take a back seat to Fred Jackson any longer. Jackson is going to return and take some carries away, but Spiller has earned more than the second part of a time share – even the Bills can’t ruin that,  right?
Donnie Avery is back. After dealing with some serious injuries over the past couple of years, Avery has finally resurfaced with the Colts and has played extremely well thus far with 12 catches for 148 yards and a touchdown on a healthy 18 targets. With the Colts trailing as much as they may, he could re-emerge as a viable WR3 again.
Alex Smith is finally turning into a legitimate starting quarterback. After seven long years at the helm, Smith looks efficient, intelligent and completely in control. While he won’t be asked to put up monster numbers with that defense, you could do a whole lot worse with your QB2.
Sam Bradford is healthy and ready for a nice bounce back season. He’s completing over 70% of his passes so far and has only one interception on the season. While the Rams still lack weapons for him, he’s doing a nice job and Jeff Fisher is doing his best to keep him upright.
Stevan Ridley seemingly has a stranglehold on the Patriots backfield. You truly can’t be certain until Shane Vereen returns from injury, but Ridley has been very impressive so far. He’ll get a tough test against Baltimore this week, but his 5.0 yards per carry average has carried over from last year and he looks explosive at times, giving the Patriots the balance they’ve been wanting.
The Panthers have finally found their second receiving option in Brandon LaFell. Through two games, he has nine catches for 155 yards and a score. Â Carolina has been searching for a Steve Smith running mate for years and it looks as though they finally have it in LaFell.
The run of bad rushing games for Darren McFadden has to end shortly. He’s still been great in PPR leagues since he has 15 catches in just two games, but the Raiders haven’t been able to get anything going on the ground. McFadden is just too good to have 54 yards rushing on 26 carries. Oakland is going to have to do something schematically to get him going.
DeSean Jackson is back to his old self. He’s always going to be a boom or bust player, but Jackson has played hard the first two games and put the past in the past.
Shaun Draughn is not going to be a viable fantasy performer this year unless the Chiefs get blown out every week. Of course, the way they’ve looked, that may actually be possible.
The days of Felix Jones having dynasty value are over. It would take a change of scenery or a DeMarco Murray injury for him to get another chance, but he really looks like he’s lost a step or two even if he was to get it.
Things I Wish I Knew
Nobody really knows that the future holds for Chris Johnson, but I sure wish I did. The fact is he’s absolutely terrible right now and the problem most owners have is they don’t really have other viable options to bench him for. Over his last 18 games, he now has 1,068 rushing yards on 3.8 yards per carry. His longest run this year is seven yards and if you take that away, he sadly has 14 yards on 18 carries, good for an average of 0.8 yards per rush. Yes, his offensive line has had some problems. However, just blaming his troubles on that unit is simply an excuse – they’re part of the problem, but not all of it. If you own Johnson, there’s really nothing you can do at this point. Finding anyone in your league as a trade partner who still values him as an RB1 is going to be next to impossible and that’s likely what you’d need to justify moving him.
The future of Wes Welker is murky and it’s impossible to predict what’s going to happen here as well. It’s almost as if he’s being punished for wanting a new contract, but not holding out. It’s a bizarre situation for sure, but Welker’s value takes a nose dive if he ends up anywhere outside of New England next year or ends up being permanently supplanted by Julian Edelman when Aaron Hernandez returns.
I really wish I knew how many games Alfred Morris will start for Washington so we can advise you when to trade him. It could be two or sixteen and neither would surprise me.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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