The Skill of the Dynasty League Trade: Tips, Techniques, Tools and Terms

Jeff Beran

murraytraded

Editor’s Note: This article was the winning submission of one of our Writing Contest winners – Jeff Beran. It was chosen for its broad focus, detail and informational approach to a basic idea. Team DLF is excited to welcome Jeff to the writing group and we know you’ll enjoy much more of his work in the coming months and years.

Arguably the most crucial skill to learn if you want to be successful in a fantasy football dynasty league (or in any fantasy sport’s dynasty league for that matter) is how to effectively make trades.  This skill is neither pure science, nor pure skill, but certainly some combination of the two.  The ideas are relatively simple, yet nearly impossible to master. Don’t worry, this isn’t a riddle, but then again, maybe it is!

Any successful dynasty league owner knows the importance of effective trading and has probably even cultivated their own system for evaluating trade proposals.  They’ve learned the procedure of how to create the careful balance of relatively harmless psychological (and sometimes emotional) manipulation while using foundational tools such as statistical analysis, logic, and economic principals. If you’ve found yourself on a website like DLF reading an article about a topic as specific as this, you probably fit into one of the following categories:

Category A: You’re an experienced dynasty owner who craves fantasy information which is specifically tailored for dynasty and keeper leagues and you’re tired of sifting through the overabundance of generic and often mundane re-draft league directed articles on huge websites like ESPN and Yahoo.

Category B: You’re relatively new to such leagues and need to get caught up to speed on one of the primary tactical differences between them and the old boring re-draft leagues to which you’re probably accustomed.

Category C: A fellow owner in your dynasty league sent you a link to this article as a not-so-subtle way of saying you just made a horrible decision and to please figure this stuff out ASAP.

In any case, you’re in the right spot!

To my brethren in Category A, most of the information below will probably second-nature to you already, but perhaps you can glean something new and useful.  To those in Category B, some of the information herein is what precludes you from being in Category A, so take notes if you want to compete for a dynasty league championship anytime soon.  Category C, the bad news is you’ve already been identified by your fellow league managers, but the good news is that your fortunes can (and will) change if you take heed to some of this advice.

Trade Proposal Evaluation

Now, if you’re anything like me – hypercompetitive, highly analytical, somewhat OCD, and borderline neurotic – or even if you’re not, you need a basic system to evaluate trade proposals, both the ones you receive from other owners and the ones you create yourself.  This process should be personal, repeatable, efficient and ultimately, effective.  If you don’t already have one, start with mine (below) as a basic template and modify it to fit your own needs.

It might take some trial and error to find something that works for you, but once you do, it will eventually become second-nature and you’ll be competing for league titles in no time.  If you’re the owner who is sending the original proposal, make sure you complete Steps 1-3 on this list before making it official.

Step 1 – The Sniff Test

The first step in trade proposal evaluation is the Sniff Test.  This step is pretty simple and it happens immediately when you open the proposal whether that’s in an email from your league website or a text message directly from the offering owner.  Wherever this initial reaction takes place, it’s important. If it smells like excrement then it is excrement; reject the trade immediately without further consideration.  Are you having a hard time identifying the scent? Is that cardamom? Hmmm…move on to Step 2.  This step seems silly to mention, but without this filter, you’ll end up wasting your time on proposals that are DOA.

Step 2 – The Bird’s Eye View

Hooray for T-charts!

Grab a pencil and some scratch paper or even use an Excel spreadsheet if you’re so inclined.  In one-for-one player trade scenarios, this step isn’t entirely necessary, but it’s paramount in multiplayer, multi-pick, and/or multi-team trades.  It should look something like the hypothetical trade illustrated here in Figure A.

 

tchart1

This initial side-by-side comparison of the players/picks you’re giving up with the players/picks you’re receiving will help you determine if the trade is relatively balanced and if it should even be considered further.  This bird’s eye view comparison doesn’t take relative value (we’ll talk more about the term “value” later) into consideration, but it does help identify red flags and also helps start the process of a potential future counteroffer (Step 5).

In the example above, my initial impression would be that the right column seems to have a pretty clear advantage, so I’d probably take a look at the other team’s roster to see if there’s anything else they might be willing to add to the offer to make it a little more balanced. If I found something I thought could be changed or added to the offer and still be agreeable to the other party, a counteroffer (Step 5) would be in order and I’d skip to that step. However, for the sake of time, let’s assume that the initial offer is worth further evaluation in Step 3.

Step 3 – The Before and After

Rejoice for more T-charts!

If the proposal has survived past the Step 2 filter without rejection or requiring a counterproposal, Step 3 is a T-chart that does a side-by-side comparison of your team before and after the trade.  Using the hypothetical trade proposal above, this step is illustrated in Figure B.

tchart2

This step allows you to see how the trade will change the complexion of your team overall. For my money, it’s the most important step in this entire process.  In the example above, the overall effect is that your team would be sacrificing some quality at the RB2 and TE positions in exchange for a big upgrade at QB, a fairly sizable upgrade at WR3, and an extra future second round draft pick as a kicker.

The original trade proposal probably looks a little bit better in Step 3 than it did in Step 2, at least it does in a vacuum. However, it will be up to you to apply the parameters of your dynasty league’s settings in order to determine the overall value of the trade.

At this point, the only way to answer the question about whether or not this trade is worth even further consideration is: it depends!**  And before you ask, the answer is no, I’m not a lawyer.

With a hypothetical offer like this that looks somewhat even on paper, the only way to truly analyze it much more is to consider external factors such as: bye weeks, waiver wire pool, league scoring settings, number of keepers or dynasty effect (this has a great effect on the value of that second round pick), league standings, long term impact vs. short term gain (are you ramping up for the playoffs or rebuilding for the future?), etc.  For our purposes here, let’s assume the trade is still worthy of further consideration given all external factors and move on to Step 4.

*I like to use a color coding system to do this step so that I can see which positions are being upgraded, downgraded, or staying the same.  I use green to signify an above-average player, yellow to signify an average player, and red to signify a below-average player.

** I get text messages and emails from friends in various fantasy football leagues all the time asking what I think of particular trade proposals and my answer is almost always the same: it depends! Fantasy football, especially dynasty leagues, aren’t played in a vacuum because there are so many dynamic factors involved so without all of that information handy it’s almost an exercise in futility to even discuss a potential trade.   Sorry for the side tangent but hopefully you can understand my stance on the issue.

Step 4 – The Consultant

Fantasy football has reached unprecedented levels of popularity in the past few years, so your available resources are anything but scarce.  I heard an ESPN radio commercial last year that stated (paraphrasing here) ‘the average person’s fantasy football league commitment lasts longer than the average marriage!’ I have no idea whether or not that’s true but if it is, why aren’t there infinitely more dynasty leagues out there?! Oh yeah, and I guess that’s a sad indictment on our society or whatever and blah, blah, blah…but I digress.

Back to Step 4!

You should have one or two websites bookmarked (DLF is a good one to start with…hint, hint) that you trust for rankings and information.  You should also have one or two people (friends / co-workers / brother-in laws / ombudsmen / sages / priests / sherpas, etc.) you can go to for quick feedback or advice.  Just make sure you don’t abuse the privilege and if you really want valuable feedback, you must make sure that they have all of the relevant external information (as previously discussed) in order to provide it.

This step is certainly optional, but comes highly recommended.  If you feel confident about your execution of Steps 1-3, this step is really nothing more than reassurance in a decision that has already been made but it’s part of our human nature to seek that so it’s totally justified. Just one thing, though – don’t go overboard with your consultations.  You know what they say about too many cooks in the kitchen, right?  When in doubt, rely on the KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) method.

Step 5 – The Counteroffer

There isn’t much to say about the counteroffer step other than you should utilize it judiciously.  I don’t mean that you should be tentative about sending a counteroffer because it’s certainly an important part of any negotiation process, just that you should perform at least Steps 1-3 (preferably 1-4) on this list before sending it.

If your fellow league managers are setting their anchors appropriately, they should expect a counteroffer anyways so you might as well see what they might do to sweeten the deal for your franchise, right? After all, unless the anchor you send pulls you overboard and drowns the deal entirely, the original offer very rarely will ever come off the table, so you really have nothing to lose.  You might have to go through this step several times within the course of negotiation but if it leads to Step 6, trust me when I say that it will all be worth it.

Step 6 – The Acceptance

Hit the “Accept Trade” button, then sit back and relax.  If you’ve put enough time and effort into steps 1-5, you won’t get that instantaneous buyer’s remorse feeling that impulsive shoppers often get. You’ll be excited about the future of your dynasty squad and ready to compete for championships!

Adages, Idioms, Mantras, and Other Trade Considerations to Live By

1.) The terms “value” or “worth” are completely relative in business and especially in fantasy sports.  There is a market with a static number of teams in your league.  Any player, pick, or combination of the two is only worth what somebody is willing to pay/trade for it.

2.) Performing “due diligence” is your responsibility.  Don’t underestimate its importance.

3.) The value of draft picks is lowest right after the draft and highest right before the draft.  The value of players is generally the inverse of that.  Keep that in mind during negotiations.

4.) A “sunk cost” is a term for something that has already happened (a trade, a waiver claim, an injury, etc.) and cannot be changed.  It should not affect future decision-making.  I can’t stress the importance of this term enough.

5.) If your league allows them, multi-team trades are your friend.  They’re a little bit trickier to navigate, but the extra effort will definitely pay off.

6.) If you’ve dug yourself a hole, stop digging.

7.) In general, your starters are the only ones who score points.  Your bench is there as a supporting cast.  Your focus in negotiations should be geared more towards the former, less towards the latter.

8.) Balanced teams with players who get hot at the end of the season usually win.  Take this into account when evaluating a trade or even your own roster. Keep the playoff schedule (weeks 13-16, usually), Win-Loss records of the actual NFL teams, injuries and playing opportunities in mind.

9.) “Losing” a trade isn’t the worst thing in the world. Learn from your mistakes, but don’t harp on them.

10.) Know your competition.  Which trading personality do the other owners in your league most resemble? Do they like to haggle like a street merchant at the Eiffel Tower or does the idea of a counteroffer freak them out?

11.) Try to avoid biases whenever possible. We all have those natural subconscious biases but don’t swear off a player forever just because he didn’t pan out for you in a previous year.  I once traded pre-fantasy-stud LeSean McCoy for a pre-Beast-Mode Marshawn Lynch because I saw him whiff on a blitz pickup in a preseason game. I’m an Eagles fan and was mad about McCoy’s missed block. Yes, I overreacted. And granted, that’s probably the worst trade I’ve ever made, but still, I should have followed my own rules!

12.) Don’t burn bridges with other owners in your league. Trade embargos don’t usually work out in the long run. Just ask Fidel Castro.

13.) Always have a contingency plan prepared.  This goes along with setting anchors, but you’ll win more trades than you’ll lose if you have a counter-counteroffer ready to go.  The fantasy owners with the most success are usually playing chess when everyone else is playing checkers.

14.) As a general rule, two-for-one trades rarely work out for the team taking on more players.  In fact, there’s really no such thing as a two-for-one trade if both rosters at maximum capacity. Always factor players you’ll be forced to waive into the equation.

15.)  Always check the waiver wire to see if there are comparable options available.

16.) Timing is everything – check matchups, both past and future, especially in fantasy playoff weeks.

17.) Know when the trade deadline in your league is!  The closer to the deadline, the more desperate the person proposing the trade will be.  Use that information to your advantage.

18.) Know exactly how long it takes for a trade to clear the review period.  Nothing worse than trading for a guy as a fill-in who won’t even play for your team because it won’t be executed until after games start that week.

19.) Excel spreadsheets are your friend. Use them to store notes, info, future predictions, etc.

20.) Get the App! If you’ve got a smart phone, having internet access and your league website’s mobile app automatically gives you a leg up on the competition.

21.) Don’t stress out too much. HAVE FUN!