Dynasty League Football

Uncategorized

DLF’s Annual Preseason Predictions

This is one of our favorite times of the year. After working hard to produce over 330 articles this off-season, we can finally look forward to the 2012 Fantasy Football season in our beloved dynasty leagues. That means it’s time for our annual fantasy predictions. We compiled some opinions from the DLF Team and compiled this list of predictions for the upcoming fantasy year. The categories were as follows:

Fantasy MVP
Fantasy Rookie of the Year
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player
Fantasy Sleeper
Best Dynasty Buy
Best Dynasty Sell
Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year 

Let’s get to it.

Ken Kelly

Fantasy MVP = Calvin Johnson, WR DET

Matt Stafford had the quietest 5,000 yard season in NFL history last year and Johnson accounted for 1,681 of those. The scary thing it seems like Johnson could have had even more.  He had a five game stretch where he failed to post 100 yards in a game, but finished with 771 yards and six touchdowns in his last four games, including the playoffs. With more legitimate weapons keeping defenses from at least triple teaming him, Megatron is poised for a monster season.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year = Russell Wilson, QB SEA

Go big or go home, right?  Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are better players, but Wilson has a chance to put up some serious fantasy numbers this season. Luck, Griffin, Trent Richardson and Doug Martin are all likely better picks here, but hey, what fun is this if you don’t stick your neck out?

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player = Rob Gronkowski, TE NE

Look, I’m not saying he’s not an uber-stud because he is. The problem is he’s being drafted and valued as if it’s a given that he can repeat his numbers from last season when he posted 90 catches, 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns. If he comes back to earth as expected, his owners are going to be disappointed.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player = Percy Harvin, WR MIN

With Adrian Peterson being eased in slowly, Harvin is going to have the ball a ton next season. As our own Eric Olinger pointed out yesterday, Harvin was one of, if not THE hottest player at the end of last season and he’s not being treated as such right now.

Fantasy Sleeper = Alfred Morris, RB WAS

You can add Tristan Davis, Michael Shaw or anyone else the Redskins bring into camp or sign at any point this season. Somebody is going to get some yards in Washington this year and Morris has looked pretty impressive this preseason. Mike Shanahan running backs have turned into illegal street drugs in fantasy football. People know they’re wrong, but hey, they’re an addiction.

Note: Robert Turbin was a close second for this.

Best Dynasty Buy = Jamaal Charles, RB KC

Remember, he was a top five asset at this time last year. Since he’s a player who doesn’t need the ball 25 times to be dominant, his injury doesn’t scare me nearly as much. He’s looked explosive in the preseason and he’ll have a solid year. I believe 2013 is the year he returns all the way to his dominant self, so buy now.

Best Dynasty Sell = Roddy White, WR ATL

White is still being valued in some leagues as a top five receiver. After all, he’s averaged 108 receptions, 1,343 yards and nine touchdowns the past two years. Problem is, Julio Jones is going to become the top dog in this offense and the time to get the best value for White is right now as those numbers are all destined to fall.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year = Peyton Manning, QB DEN

After leaving Indianapolis, Manning has something to prove.  I say he proves it.

Jeff Haverlack

Fantasy MVP = Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

I just don’t see anyone coming close to his fantasy points.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year = Robert Griffin III, QB WAS

Not as good as Luck, but better in fantasy.  He’s solid.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player = DeMarco Murray, RB DAL

Yes, he’s dynamic, but he’s a paper tiger.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player = Fred Davis, TE WAS

He’s not on the radar for most, but could be top four tight end.

Fantasy Sleeper = Armon Binns, WR CIN

Focus won’t be on him, but he’s a dynamic talent.

Best Dynasty Buy = Mike Williams, WR TB

Down year has removed him from almost all radars.

Best Dynasty Sell = DeMarco Murray, RB DAL

For reasons stated earlier.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year = Chris Johnson, RB TEN

Not CJ2k, but should be CJ1.5K.

Steve Wyremski

Fantasy MVP = Calvin Johnson, WR DET

His goal is to hit 100 yards in each game in the 2012 season. Madden-curse be dammed, Johnson is a beast in his prime with one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Assuming he’s healthy, he’s a virtual lock for 90 catches, 1,500 yards, and 12 touchdowns. That’s conservative. If he hits 100 yards every game, we’re going to be looking at close to 2,000 yards receiving on the year. He’s the best and safest fantasy option out there.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year = Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

He’s shown he’s past the DUI trouble and is focused on the field in the last two preseason games. Blaine Gabbert has no one to throw to except Blackmon. With Trent Richardson’s early injury troubles, Blackmon is best bet to make a fantasy impact in his rookie year. Not only is he the only offensive threat in the passing game, but the Jaguars offense is going to be playing from behind the entire season and throwing a lot.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player = AJ Green, WR CIN

He’s ranked as a top five dynasty wide receiver and many expect a top 5-10 season from Green in 2012. With potential growing pains from Andy Dalton in his sophomore season and more focus on Green with no other receiver on the other side, a big sophomore year from Green is going to be difficult. He’ll continue to be a solid player, but you have to mortgage the farm for him. It’s going to take a monster season for Green to meet expectations and he’s likely to fall short.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player = Aaron Hernandez, TE NE

Hernandez isn’t a tight end. He’s a receiver who qualifies as a tight end. His points per game average was top three among tight ends last season, but he’s still drafted a few rounds after Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. Things will change in 2012 and Hernandez will be considered with those top two guys.

Fantasy Sleeper = Robert Housler, TE ARI

My love for Housler has been well documented. He’s in the same mold as Gronkowski, Graham, and Hernandez and should get the opportunity to produce in 2012. The wild card is the quarterback in Arizona and could end up holding him back depending on how messy things get.

Best Dynasty Buy = Greg Little, WR CLE

Many are putting too much weight on last season’s struggles for Little. He hasn’t played receiver for all that long and he hadn’t played organized football in almost two years entering the 2011 season. The volume of drops in 2011 was a logical result. After a year in the league and a full offseason, Little belongs in the top 15 wide receivers. He has the prototypical wide receiver build, talent, and a perfect situation. He has the ability to be a top receiver in this league.

Best Dynasty Sell = Evan Royster, RB WAS

We all know Shannahan’s philosophy with running backs – he doesn’t have one. If you can get anything worthwhile for Royster, he should be sold. If not, wait for the first few weeks of the season after he puts up some numbers and sell then. He’s not long for the fantasy relevant world.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year = Steve Smith, WR STL

Smith appears to be atop the Rams’ wide receiver depth chart right now after a down year following two disappointing seasons. It appears he’s finally healthy. With the unproven talent, Smith should become Sam Bradford’s favorite target outside of Danny Amendola and have a surprising comeback season in 2012.

The FFGhost

Fantasy MVP = Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

In a league that is passing more and more Rodgers stands above all other QBs

Fantasy Rookie of the Year = Robert Griffin III, QB WAS

RGIII looked great in presseason play, and yeah it’s just preseason, but he looked more than ready for the NFL. He just barely edges Luck here.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player = Jordy Nelson, WR GB

His touchdowns were a big part of his appeal last year. With Greg Jennings back, they are bound to diminish. He is a great wide receiver, but not a third or fourth rounder.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player = Josh Freeman, QB TB

Everything around him has improved, it will be hard for him to underperform even in the worst of circumstances.

Fantasy Sleeper =– Rob Housler, TE ARI

Tight Ends are the new “IT” position and Housler has talent to be very dangerous, if only Arizona can find someone to throw to him.

Best Dynasty Buy = Mike Wallace, WR PIT

People in dynasty leagues are treating him like he has leprosy. He will be back on the field and he will be a high end receiver, whether its this year or next remains to be season, but long term his current price is a steal.

Best Dynasty Sell = Cam Newton, QB CAR

He will regress this year in my opinion. His numbers were so inflated due to his rushing touchdowns, with Mike Tolbert being brought in, its clear Carolina knows this isn’t sustainable long term. With Steve Smith now 33 and by far Cam’s favorite receiver, I don’t expect his rookie year to be his baseline.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year = Danny Amendola, WR STL

Have I said his name enough to DLF? Amendola is a PPR machine and Bradford’s target of choice by a huge margin. The injury he sustained was a freak one and not to his legs, he should return to form and post receptions by the bucket-load.

Tim Stafford

Fantasy MVP = Tom Brady, QB NE

I fully expect him to outscore A-Rod and carry teams to the playoffs/championship.  He’s a redraft “must get” and a dynasty gem.  Well worth the risk of his age.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year = Kendall Wright, WR TEN

Too easy to say Trent Richardson.  Wright has looked stellar so far in the preseason.  I think he leads all rookie WRs in fantasy points.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player = Andre Johnson, WR HOU

He’s a “do not draft” for me in redraft leagues.  Let someone else take on the risk.  I love the talent, skills, upside – but I hate the injuries and slow recovery times.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player = Kenny Britt, WR TEN

He’s falling too far now.  At the price tag, he’s worth the risk at this point.  You’re getting a WR3 who has top-5 WR potential.  I’m a buyer at today’s prices.

Fantasy Sleeper = LaVon Brazill, WR IND

This is DLF so we go deep.  Brazill has the opportunity to step up if Austin Collie continues to struggle with concussions.

Best Dynasty Buy = Quizz Rodgers, RB ATL

High risk/high return.  But at the right price, he’s a buy.

Best Dynasty Sell = Doug Martin, RB TB

Didn’t have to think more than two seconds on this one.  He’s likely at his peak value right now.  If you are purely about extracting maximum value, sell now.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year = Jamaal Charles, RB KC

I ‘m a believer.  Would love to own him as a low end RB1 paired with a guy like DeMarco Murrary or Darren McFadden.

Paymon Shokoohi

Fantasy MVP = Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

All the pieces are in place for Rodgers to lead the league in scoring. The only thing that kept him from the points lead last year is sitting out week 17.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year = Andrew Luck, WB IND

Luck hasn’t done anything to disappoint in preseason. In fact, he’s probably solidified the argument that he’s the best prospect of this rookie class.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player = Isiah Pead, RB STL

I’ll go into the rookie pool for this one. Pead has been drafted in rookie drafts as a potential starter, and a starter he is not. After a lackluster preseason, at least some are jumping off of the hype train.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player = Steven Jackson, RB STL

Jackson may not have many more years left in the tank, but I feel he’s poised for a top 5-6 type year in PPR.

Fantasy Sleeper = Alex Green, RB GB

Yes the Packers picked up Cedric Benson, and he’ll factor in, but as the season goes I anticipate Green’s play making ability to force a bigger role in the offense.

Best Dynasty Buy = Chris Johnson, RB TEN

A lot of folks have jumped off the CJ2K bandwagon. I think he’ll far outproduce his ADP.

Best Dynasty Sell = Brandon Marshall, WR CHI

It may not happen until next season but at some point he will become a problem again. Best case scenario, ride him out to success this year and then jump ship.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year = Peyton Manning, QB DEN

The arm and spiral may not be as it once was but Manning’s still as precise a thrower as there is in this league. He’s still a top 12 fantasy quarterback.

Jacob Feldman

Fantasy MVP = LeSean McCoy, RB PHI

With his explosiveness and speed, he is tough to beat. Combine that with another year of experience AND I think he will be even better than last year.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year = Andrew Luck, QB IND

Hard to beat a talent like him. Though this pick has as much to do with his talent as it does with a gut feeling that the two big rookie running backs will struggle – Richardson with getting healthy and Martin splitting time.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player = Ryan Mathews, RB SD

He just isn’t a top 5-7 RB. He’s the new McFadden. Lots of talent, but I have a feeling that injuries will limit him to about 12 games this year.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player = Matt Ryan, QB ATL

Already a top 7-10 quarterback in leagues last year and he hasn’t hit his prime yet. Shift in offensive mentality combined with Julio Jones maturing should lead to a top 5 finish this year.

Fantasy Sleeper = (Not too deep) Kendall Hunter, RB SF

He’ll take over for Frank Gore this year and finish as a top 25 RB.

Fantasy Sleeper = (Deep) Rod Streater, WR OAK

This year’s Victor Cruz. He won’t produce quite as well due to the offense he is on, but he’s going to start and produce at a decent level by mid season.

Best Dynasty Buy =Matt Ryan, QB ATL

The window might already be closed to get him cheap, but there are still several that don’t believe.

Best Dynasty Sell = Andre Johnson, WR HOU

Still viewed as a top ten or even top five wide receiver in some leagues. He’s pretty much at the end of the line with all of the injuries. It was a great run though!

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year = Peyton Hillis, RB KC

He went from a top back to almost nothing last year. He could approach 200 carries this year in a run heavy offense that will try to limit Charles’ touches.

So, who are your candidates for these awards?

Ken Kelly
Latest posts by Ken Kelly (see all)
8 Comments
0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
8 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
StevieMo
10 years ago

Fantasy MVP: She’s a bit older now but I’m still gonna go with Halle Berry.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Zoe Kravitz.
Fantasy Sleeper: Without a doubt the Italian babe in that Fiat commercial.
Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Pamela Anderson is back (on Dancing With The Stars).

Oh, you meant fantasy FOOTBALL….

Orange Dawg
Reply to  StevieMo
10 years ago

LOL!!!

StevieMo
Reply to  StevieMo
10 years ago

You gotta love the guy who goes thumbs down on this lighthearted take. Sweet.

10 years ago

It must be an IDP guy thing Ghost & Steve, I too am a huge fan of Housler and have been getting him in every Dynasty league.

robertdhenley
Reply to  Eric Olinger
10 years ago

funny i drafted him last yr, cut him, picked him up again, put him on taxi squad and cut him again. i picked up again in our free agent period for $1

10 years ago

MVP: Jimmy Graham – I think he flirts with 100 catches, 1,400 yards and 10+ TD’s. He’ll become Brees’ favorite target and dominate red-zone throws, while roaring past the Gronk and delivering the largest relative positional advantage in fantasy.

Rookie: Doug Martin – 1,450 total yards as the clear bell-cow in that offense. He’ll also catch a lot of passes in garbage time, as the Bucs will constantly be playing from behind.

Overvalued: MJD – Holds out for too long and never regains feature-back duties, as Rashad Jennings runs well in his absence.

Undervalued: Marques Colston – He’s the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy. Every year he’ll fly under the radar, but still give you 1,100 yards and 8+ TD’s. He’s poised to do so again with no other reliable targets on the team outside of Graham and Sproles.

Sleeper: Christian Ponder – He’ll establish a solid rapport with emerging threat Kyle Rudolph, to pair with the relationship he already has with Harvin. Jerome Simpson will also emerge as a reliable WR2. When factoring in 200+ rushing yards, Ponder will finish as a top 16 QB.

Buy: Julio Jones – It sounds counterintuitive, as his value is already sky-high. However, I can only see it climbing from here. He’s one of the only wideouts in the game who can almost match Megatron in physical skills. He’ll have a minimum of nine dome games every year, and has a top 10 QB throwing him the ball. You’ll have to pay a lot now, but it’s less than you would after he blows up for 90 catches and 1,500 yards receiving this year.

Sell: Frank Gore – Find a contending team who has a hole to fill at RB2 and hope he’ll take the bait! Gore’s value is already relatively low, but I only see it getting lower from here.

Comeback: Braylon Edwards – Sidney Rice will wind up missing even more time this year, and Edwards will lead the Seahawks in receiving. He’ll get between 900-1,000 yards, with 6 TD’s, proving to be a spot starter and reliable WR4.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  Eric Hardter
10 years ago

I like your list and have basically traded for all of the big guys (Graham, Martin, Colston) and sold Gore in my main league. Didn’t buy Julio Jones because my brother has him and won’t trade him for the world.

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Cyrus Miller
10 years ago

Yeah, I don’t have a problem with anyone on this list.

To Top