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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

Note: We answer additional Mailbag questions on the weekly DLF Podcast.  Make sure to download and listen because your question might be answered on the air.

1.)  I have the fortune of having Matt Ryan and Drew Brees.  I am thinking of moving Brees to the Rob Gronkowski owner because I only have Brent Celek and Fred Davis at TE.  Is Ryan going to have a strong enough year to make this trade? Ryan in Chicago

Purely on value, I think this is a very solid offer.  Assuming the other owner has a weak quarterback and another acceptable option at tight end, I’m sure he will consider it seriously.  If you make the offer, you might add Celek to the mix to give him a replacement level tight end.

As to Matt Ryan, he is a polarizing player.  The composite DLF rankings have him as the QB#9, but the individual ranks vary quite a bit.  Ryan has yet to put elite fantasy numbers on the board so you’re still betting on the come at this point.  With many predicting a breakout season for Julio Jones, hopefully we see an uptick in Ryan’s production.

Ryan is near the bottom of the list of every week starters for me.  The quarterbacks I have ranked after him are all QBBC candidates and can’t be counted on to shoulder the load.  If I owned Ryan, I wouldn’t be enthusiastic about it, but I also wouldn’t be scrambling to make a change.

I believe that Fred Davis is poised for a strong season and that Brent Celek is underrated.  I’d rather keep Brees and see which of my TEs panned out.  If by week three or four neither is producing adequately then I might consider making this offer.

2.)  My current starting lineup is Ryan Fitzpatrick, MJD, LeSean McCoy, Larry Fitzgerald, AJ Green, Robert Meachem, Fred Davis and Mark Sanchez as my flex player.  I have the following picks in this year’s draft: 1.1, 1.4, 2.1 (16th pick), and I was wondering who you would recommend.  – Justin in Fairfax, VA

What a strange league – a 15 team super flex.

I think you need to load up on quarterbacks.  I don’t believe Mark Sanchez will survive as the starter with Tim Tebow breathing down his neck.  Andrew Luck would be an easy selection for me with the 1.01.  At 1.04, I’d take Doug Martin, Trent Richardson or RGIII.

A steal at 2.01 would be either Ryan Tannehill or Russell Wilson.  My bet is that Tannehill is gone, but that Wilson might be there for you.  He just won the starting job by putting up an amazing fight.  Pete Carroll is the type of coach who will ignore the big dollars paid to Matt Flynn and go with the option he thinks gives the team the best chance to win and that’s Wilson right now.  Obviously this is a risky pick if you make it, but the upside in a superflex would be worth it to me.

3.)  Doing a start-up dynasty draft with all newbies, including me. I am 10th in the draft.  Should I take rookies in the first three rounds or go with the best veterans? – Joseph in Selden NY

Great question Joseph.  And I hope you and your league mates enjoy your foray in to dynasty.  Make sure you tell them about DLF.

The only rookies that warrant consideration in the top-30 picks of a standard league are Trent Richardson and Doug Martin.  A strong argument can be made that even Martin doesn’t deserve to be drafted that high – I certainly wouldn’t take him in the top 30.  There is a consensus in the fantasy community that Trent Richardson is an impact player and a caliber of player that only comes along every five years or so.  He’s worth a late first round or early second round pick in dynasty start-ups.

Newbies to dynasty tend to overvalue youth.  If the other owners are snapping up mid-tier rookies like David Wilson, Justin Blackmon and Kendall Wright, they’re leaving high value veterans for you.  You want to be competitive now, but also not draft an entire team of aging veterans.  Draft with an eye toward winning but with each pick consider age.  For example, if you are torn between say Julio Jones and Greg Jennings, take Jones since he’s younger.  But don’t take AJ Green over Calvin Johnson as Calvin is clearly the superior player.

Another tip about age.  People will overvalue this year’s rookies, but undervalue last year’s.  Inexperienced players will draft Michael Floyd over Greg Little because they’ve been seeing Floyd on ESPN, in the NFL draft, etc.  The new car smell has worn off of Little, but that doesn’t mean he and the others from last year aren’t still nice pick-ups.

4.) What are Delone Carter’s prospects for the next two years?Adam in Toronto

Not good I’m afraid.

I haven’t seen anything to like about Delone Carter so far.  One can’t pin that all on him.  The Colts O-line continues to be a work in progress and the passing game in 2011 was totally ineffective.  And of course he’s been banged up this preseason.

From what I’ve seen so far, this is Donald Brown’s job to lose.  I think the Colts will go with him until he proves them wrong.  Worse yet, Vick Ballard has looked good with the carries he’s gotten.  From what I’ve seen, Carter is going to be lucky to be listed as the RB2 on the depth charts.

I can’t see the benefit of owning him at this point in a shallow league.  He’s certainly outside my top-250.  Regardless of how good Luck has looked, the Colts are in for another rough season.  I’d bet pretty heavily that Carter is never a startable player over the next two years.  The combination of the competition at the position, the weak O-line, Luck himself stealing carries and constantly playing from behind severely impacts Carter’s two year value.

5.) I have the 1.05 & 1.08 pick in our upcoming rookie draft.  Our league is a bit strange in a sense that QBs tend to go very late in our drafts.  Assuming Richardson, Martin, Blackmon and David Wilson are gone; who would you take at 1.05.  I really think Luck will fall to me at the 1.08.  Barry in Madison WI

I’m in a league like that as well.  Luck fell to the 1.06 in my league.  You don’t mention if this is a salary cap/contract league, but quarterbacks tend to fall pretty far in that format.  You know your league, but for Luck to fall to the 1.08 seems unlikely.  His strong showing so far in the preseason must have caught the attention of others in your league.  I wouldn’t run the risk of passing on him at 1.05.

Let’s assume I can’t convince you to take Luck at the 1.05.  The second choice would be Kendall Wright.  I’ve seen every snap he’s played this preseason and I think if I was drafting today I’d take him over Michael Floyd.  Wright’s looked very strong so far and has benefited from Kenny Britt being sidelined.  My bet is that he is a day one starter for the Titans and quickly becomes a viable bye-week, injury replacement.

6.) How much do you value IDPs in comparison to the other 2012 rookies? I have the 11th pick in the upcoming rookie draft and I need to address WR, TE, LB, and DE. Where would you rank Luke Kuechly and Andre Branch among the rest of the rookie class?Matthew in LA

Note:  Special thanks to TheFFGhost for answering Matthew’s IDP question.

Luke Kuechly is such a talent that it makes his ranking a little bit easier than most. As you and many others know, Kuechly entered this year’s draft as the number one linebacker far and away.  In his sophomore and junior years at Boston College he posted over 100 tackles in each year – an amazing feat for any player. Drafted by the Carolina Panthers in the first round of the draft, he is now penciled in as their weakside linebacker with the clear (believed) intent to move him to middle linebacker in the near future. As such, I have no problem ranking him as a late first round, early second round talent in a 16 team league. Bottom line, if you don’t take him with the 11th overall pick then he won’t be there the next time you pick.

As for Andre Branch, he too should be a stud in the IDP world given some time to develop. Branch however can be had later than Kuechly in the draft. The news out of Jacksonville’s training camp that Branch’s run stopping ability seems to be above par to go with his superior pass rushing ability, which is pretty encouraging. As such, don’t sleep too long on him, it might be better to grab him too early as opposed to too late as his stock seems to be on the rise as of late. I’d say the third round would be the sweet spot here.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Andr3w
9 years ago

I don’t understand how you can make judgement on when a LB or DE should be taken in the last question without knowing the scoring system. I am in multiple dynasty leagues and the value of an IDP changes drastically based on how they score. In one of my leagues I grabbed Lavonte David at 2.01 because LBs score pretty much on par with WRs and in another I got Kuetchly at 2.14 because they score about 1/2 as many points as any OP.

GangstaMachine
Reply to  Andr3w
9 years ago

Andrew, you are so right.

I mean c’mon, Tim. Take for example if I were to ask you to rank Matt Stafford and Ray Rice versus the rest of the option in a redraft league. I mean, a guy like you would say “Take Ray Rice.” But, I’m serious here, what if in my league QBs got 100 pts per completion. You didn’t ask about my scoring, Tim.

So next time, Tim, I wish you’d just be a mind reader or answer the question with every known scoring system possible rather than simpl answering the question put to you.

Admin
Reply to  GangstaMachine
9 years ago

Keep in mind a couple of things here.

First, Tim can only answer what’s asked of him. If there are odd scoring requirements or strange rules in a league, it’s the responsibility of the person asking the question to disclose that. If that isn’t disclosed, we answer any question as if the league is pretty vanilla in regards to scoring.

Second, many times there are certain aspects of a question that aren’t published. For example, if you send in a question that reads, “I’m in a 12 team league with standard WCOFF scoring and standard lineup requirements with PPR and I’m wondering if I should trade Mike Wallace for Steve Smith,” we’re not going to publish the first part and are only going to publish, “In a PPR league, I’m wondering if I should trade….”

We weed out anything that’s not needed to make it easy for our readers.

Aric Bremer
Reply to  Ken Kelly
9 years ago

Heh. Owned.

Andrew Kozak
Reply to  Aric Bremer
9 years ago

Last time I post on this site. Thats for sure. I liked this site because people didnt seem as immature as other fantasy sites when using the boards and through comments.

I was simply saying that it is a hard thing to judge because, based on my experience, IDP league scoring varies much much more than the standard 1pt per 10 yards that we are accostumed to for offensive players so its harder to judge where a defensive player should be drafted.

You guys are a fantastic source of fantasy knowledge. Keep up the good work, I will keep my input to myself from now on.

Admin
Reply to  Aric Bremer
9 years ago

Andrew, don’t let one comment keep you from participating. Generally the discussion here is way above that found on other sites. Keep posting and help keep the discussion on track. Thanks, hope to see you around. KM

Bowser
Reply to  Aric Bremer
9 years ago

Come on Andrew, you do this in our salary league all the time too. Don’t let one response take you out of the game. LOL

Ryan
9 years ago

Tim, thanks for the advice! I’ve waited on the making that trade for the same reasons you cited. From the preseason action I am concerned that Davis doesn’t appear to be on RG3’s radar. Am I reading too much into the preseason, or is this a real concern?

Briks
9 years ago

Why would Luck or RG3 not be possible picks in the top 30 of a startup league? I’d take Luck in the first round. You are getting 10+ years of production out of a QB, and he is the best prospect since Manning. Taking Trent or Martin in the top 30 but not Luck or Griffin is confusing to me.

GangstaMachine
Reply to  Briks
9 years ago

Not wanting to speak for the author here but I think you’d load up on Lucks of the world in the top 30 of a startup, if you wanted to go ahead and write off the first year.

If you want to carry yourself to championship year 1 you still need to grab one of the more elite QBs. If you can find both youth and championship-caliber talent from the get-go (e.g., Richardson, Martin, Julio, AJ Green, Megatron) that’s when you have a winner in the Top 30.

Mike Rapolas Jr.
Reply to  Briks
9 years ago

I agree that Luck or RGIII could be taken in the first 30 or so picks of a startup. But in the first round, unless you have traded for an additional first round pick, it’s hard for me to see making the foundation of your franchise a rookie who hasn’t played a regular-season NFL down, no matter how high the sky is for his career.

Joe Schmo
9 years ago

Take Chandler Jones over Branch.

GangstaMachine
9 years ago

Delone Carter: No shot he’s the goaline back for Indy? For some reason, it appeared in a few preseason games that’s what they were using him for.

Granted, I’m having a hard time clicking “drop” on his name in my league before being 100% sure he’s a no-go. Top 350 players or so or gone…

Mark
Reply to  GangstaMachine
9 years ago

I believe Carter is 4th on the depth chart behind Brown, Ballard and Moore. Not a good place to be. Also consider that he is a hold over from the last regime. IMO, don’t know if this notion holds water or not, but I suspect that a new coaching staff would be likely to value their guys (Ballard, Moore) more than hold overs like Carter.

Johnny V
9 years ago

You better take your ball and go home Andy..
Don’t you understand if it’s not spelled out on what the scoring system is they are gonna go with main stream scoring for their rankings?
Looks like you over think things way to much..
Lighten up : )

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