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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  Would you consider taking Kendall Wright with the 1.04 pick if Andrew Luck and RGIII are gone? I have Ryan Mathews, Matt Forte, Stevan Ridley and Daniel Thomas at running back, so I don’t need Doug Martin. I like Jake Locker as the quarterback and Kenny Britt is a knucklehead.  I am not sure Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd will be as good as everyone says. Glen in New Jersey

This question would be a lot easier to answer if you had the 1.05.  Frequent readers of the mailbag will attest to the fact that I strongly advocate taking best player available (BPA) in rookie drafts. A detailed rationale can be found here.

I have no problem with you taking Kendall Wright over either Michael Floyd or Justin Blackmon.  I wouldn’t, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t.  They’re close enough on my board that I won’t quibble with you on that.  Wright has looked good and your point about Kenny Britt is undeniable, unfortunately.  The issue is Doug Martin.  I simply can’t advocate taking any of the receivers over him.

A decent RB2 simply carries so much dynasty value.  In start-ups, backs such as Jonathan Stewart, CJ Spiller and Ahmad Bradshaw routinely go off the board ahead of receivers like Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, etc.  Additionally, Martin has a clearer path to being the lead back than either Stewart or Spiller.  None of the three receivers look good enough to pass on getting a shot at that type of dynasty asset.

I will put one caveat on my argument.

If you are in a league where trading is rare, dogmatically sticking to BPA is probably a mistake.  If your experience in the league suggests that trading Martin after he proves out will be difficult, then maybe that justifies taking Wright ahead of him.

As a final note, I’m not sure your running backs are as strong as you think they are.  I wouldn’t want to start Thomas under any circumstances and Ridley is a marginal flex option.

2.)  For my last keeper position I’m trying to decide between keeping Tim Tebow, Chris Ivory and Jahvid Best.  Who do you think will have better long term value? – Dwayne in Arlington, TX

Right off the bat we can toss out Jahvid Best.  I’m becoming increasingly concerned that he will never play another down of football.  It’s terribly sad, but the reality is this has gone on far, far too long.  I wouldn’t take Best even with a late round pick at this point.

As to Tim Tebow vs. Chris Ivory – I’d want to delay this decision as long as possible.  I exchanged tweets with Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) of FootballGuys this week and we both feel that when push comes to shove, barring injury to Mark Ingram/Darren Sproles/PierreThomas, one of Travaris Cadet or Chris Ivory will be on a different NFL team week one.

If Ivory remains on the Saints, he is essentially the handcuff to Ingram.  Sproles and Thomas get the same workload regardless of Ingram.  However, if Ivory moves on his value could spike dramatically.  He’d be very interesting as a complimentary back to Ryan Mathews, for example.  But until we see it happen, it’s all speculation.

If Ivory does stick in New Orleans (or you believe that’s the likely outcome) I think Tebow carries more keeper value.  I simply don’t believe that Mark Sanchez will be able to hold him off all year.  Regardless of what you think about Tebow as an NFL quarterback, he’s a low end fantasy QB1 when he’s the starter.

Note: For those who don’t follow Bloom, you should.  He’s one of the best in the business.  I learn something new every time I read his work.

3.)  I have an offer on the table of the 1.05 for the 1.12 + 2.02 picks.  That would give me the 1.02, 1.05 and 1.11, but is it smarter to keep things the way they are (#12 + #14 overall) or to take the higher pick and get a more likely ‘guaranteed’ talent at 1.05? – Jeremy in Manitoba

Note: Jeremy mentions that he is rebuilding a team that he took over.  This is his first foray in to dynasty.

Welcome to dynasty Jeremy and taking over an orphan team is a great trial by fire!

The critical thing here is to know whether or not the draft will go true to form.  By that I mean will Andrew Luck, RGIII, Trent Richardson and Doug Martin all be gone?  If so, the deal as proposed is a very reasonable one for both sides.  The 1.05 is a good (but not great) pick and the 1.12/2.02 will each yield interesting prospects.  If any of those four guys are available at the 1.05, this becomes a simple decision.

Assuming the big four are gone I’d tend toward standing pat and keeping the two picks.  The depth in the draft is sufficient to cause me to want to get two bites at the apple.  Rookie picks are crap shoots and the best way to get a winner is to place multiple bets.  In most years I’d trade up, but the strength of this draft class is the depth, not the quality of the mid-first rounders.

4.) I pick tenth in a startup keeper league, where you protect one player at each position each year. Just wondering if you guys thought selecting Brees/Newton at 10, then following with Jimmy Graham at 15 would be a wise move.  Glen in Archdale, NC

That’s certainly a valid approach.

I took a quick look at the redraft ADPs of Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham on our partner site, www.4for4.com and your projected slots are pretty much spot on.  So what that means to me is if you want to do this, there’s a reasonable chance it could happen.

I’ll tell you my issue with this approach – I think Graham is being over-drafted.  I don’t question his ability, his production, his anything.  Heck, I own him on my main team so it’s fairly convenient for me to now be telling people not to take him!  My problem is that taking Graham at 2.03 basically assumes he will repeat his 2011 production.  That’s fine, but I see zero upside on this.  I want this year’s breakouts and surprises not last year’s.  This is why on a new team I won’t own Rob Gronkowski, Graham or Victor Cruz.  I think they’re all too expensive.

I have no problem with the Brees pick.  I believe that winning fantasy teams need a cornerstone quarterback these days.  But at the 2.03, I’d be tempted to go running back.

5.) I get to keep four players.  Locked in on Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson.  Debating between DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews and Dez Bryant.  Had been leaning towards DeMarco and Mathews, but with the recent injury to Mathews, I am wondering about Dez instead. Aaron in Lincoln

Nice keepers!

You have the backbone of a serious contender here.  And I certainly agree that you want to keep Calvin, Stafford and Murray.

While I understand the debate between Mathews and Dez, I think I’d stick with your first instinct and side with Mathews.  We toss around the “injury prone” label in fantasy a little too liberally.  Broken bones happen and they’re bad luck.  I fully expect Mathews to come back strong and have a dominant (fantasy RB1 level) finish to the season.

As well, receiver is so deep this year.  There are guys ranked in the high teens and early twenties who I believe could step up and be WR1s.  I’d rather anchor my team at QB/RB and then take a slew of receivers to see who emerges.  I’m not sure where you’re drafting, but it wouldn’t shock me if you could pick Dez up with your first round pick, thus having your cake and eating it too.

6.) In my seven man keeper league, my starting running back is Darren McFadden.  I have the 1.01 in the draft and my best options will be Trent Richardson and Darren Sproles.   Who should I take?Sean in PA

Hmm.

It would help to know the rules about keepers in your league.  It seems incredibly odd to me that Darren Sproles is available in a keep-7/12-team league.  For the sake of answering this question, I’ll assume you can keep the player you take at 1.01 in the future.

Because this league is a non-PPR, this decision is fairly easy – take Trent Richardson.  There’s a reasonable chance that he outscores Sproles this year anyway and you lock in his future production which is projected to be substantially greater than Sproles.  The bell cow back in the NFL is a rarity at this point and you have a chance to own one for the next five to seven years.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

Alright, so I was asked to help a friend out by joining their 10 team dynasty league, as the previous owner of the team was chronically absent.

I was told that some of the owners in this league weren’t exactly the most skilled dynasty managers on the planet, so I felt pretty good entering the rookie draft. It went down last Saturday. This is how it went.

1.1….Trent Richardson
2.1….Kendall Wright
3.1….Ronnie Hillman
3.6….Isiah Pead
4.1….Russell Wilson

Did i do as well as i think i did?

And sorry, but i need to ask just one more question…Considering the strong possiblity that Austin Collie may now be done. Who is the receiver to own in Indy now? Brazil or Hilton?

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

You covered the second question in the premium section…

Brian
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

I am in a league with several skilled owners. You got 4 guys that went in the first round of that draft. You also got Wilson who I really like and looks like he could start some games this season if Flynn struggles.

I am big colts fan. Brazill is the one to own for sure.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  Brian
9 years ago

Agreed, in my league you got four first round picks.

And Brazill looks more enticing to me than Hilton, but I don’t think Collie is done.

And, I’m a Patriots fan, so listen to Brian ahead of me.

Mike D
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

From what I’ve watched in the two pre-season games, Brazill looks really good…better than HIlton in my opinion.

Cullen
Reply to  Mike D
9 years ago

If donnie Avery stays healthy, he could be the sleeper. But he never stays healthy.

jeff hemlick
9 years ago

JMO, but your draft looks good.

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  jeff hemlick
9 years ago

Thank you guys. I appreciate the input.

If 3-4 OLB’s are going in the second round of a rookie draft in this league, I may actually be able to turn this team around.

Paul
9 years ago

1. Trade the pick. Whether it’s for 1.5 or something else don’t pass on the value of Martin.
2. Go with Ivory. Guy can actually play vs Best’s concussions and Teblow’s well ‘skill’.
3. Agree that if one of the big four are there take the deal. If not take more chances especially as a rebuilding owner.
4. If you’re keeping one of each position it’s a lot better strategy to take Gronk or Graham early. It should pay off in the long run when you get to keep that TE every year.
5. Considering how good the Lions are I’d go with both RB’s. You’ve already got the consistent production of said Lions might as well hope they stay off IR.
6. T-Rich. Enough said.

AuctionLeaguer
Reply to  Paul
9 years ago

It’s funny that the first question asked was if he could take KWright at 1.4, becuase my draft just went down this past weekend and this is how the first 12 picks went- T.Richardson, Doug Martin, Andrew Luck, KENDALL WRIGHT AT 4, RGIII, David Wilson, Justin Blackmon, Brian Quick, Ronnie hillman, Isiah Pead, Michael Floyd, and number 12 Stephen hill.

Brady Lawson
9 years ago

“My problem is that taking Graham at 2.03 basically assumes he will repeat his 2011 production. That’s fine, but I see zero upside on this.”

This makes no sense. That’s true of any top pick. If they are a top pick they don’t really have anywhere to go but down. Plus, with Meachem gone, how does Graham have “zero upside”?

Adam
9 years ago

Tim, did you mean to post this mailbag on http://www.keeperleaguefootball.com or just light on dynasty questions this week?

Adam
Reply to  Tim Stafford
9 years ago

Just busting balls – plenty of overlap between the two formats.

Daniel
9 years ago

In my keeper league (6pt QB TD, 0.25pt completions, keep five players), I’m looking for a QB. I have pick 1.02, and these are the QBs I’m looking at:

Vick
Ryan
Luck
Griffin

Who would you take? I’m leaning towards Luck, but I also love Ryan in the Falcon’s increasingly pass-oriented offense. Who would you take?

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