Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) I was wondering how you felt about the 2013 draft class. I’m considering trading out of the 2013 draft class early because it looks so weak at this point. – Brandt in Athens, GA
It’s early to start making blanket statements about the 2013 draft class. History tells us that the player values will move around a fair amount between now and the NFL draft. I remember Evan Royster being a top fantasy candidate going in to his final year. How did that work out?
It is important to have a sense of it for the question you ask. What’s a 2013 pick worth? I don’t believe the 2013 class will shape up to be as good as either 2011 or 2012. Last year was top heavy with AJ Green, Julio Jones and Mark Ingram. And this year we got a super elite running back in Trent Richardson, plus depth in the form of stud quarterbacks and a slew of decent (not great) receivers. This year is arguably the best dynasty draft class since 2009.
There are some nice players projected for the 2013 draft. Marcus Lattimore jumps to mind along with Robert Woods, Justin Hunter and Keenan Allen. I don’t anticipate 2013 to be nearly as deep as 2012. There were guys going off the board in the second round of rookie drafts who still had me working trades to snap up this year. I think 2013 will have some very nice first round players, but it will fall off more quickly.
You don’t need to be stockpiling 2013 picks. If you get a decent trade offer that involves you sending a 2013 selection, that’s fine.
Note: To get in depth coverage of the 2013 draft class, join DLF Premium and take a look at Paymon Shokoohi’s four part series on the topic.
2.) I’ve been offered MJD for Doug Martin in my 8-team league. I’m new to dynasty. Help! – Alex in Idaho
Welcome to dynasty! And this is a great question for a newbie. There are a couple of dynasty tendencies that are showing up in this trade offer that we can all learn from.
First: There is generally a very high value put on young running backs who appear to be in good situations. Doug Martin is one of the most hyped players in dynasty right now because he has talent and is competing with LeGarrette Blount, who many believe is mediocre or worse. Mark my words, this happens every single year. Last year, the example was Daniel Thomas. What’s his value now? To be 100% clear, I’m not saying that Doug Martin is like Daniel Thomas. He’s not. What I’m saying is there is always a player who gets a lot of attention thanks in large part to situation.
Second: There is a fear of age. Dynasty owners are a competitive bunch. Heck, we play a year round game when only 16 weeks of the year (if we’re lucky) our team is actually “on the field.” I think ego drives owners to move players prematurely because they don’t want to be the guy who gets left holding the bag.
You’re seeing both of these tendencies in this offer. I’ll say this right now – Doug Martin’s trade value is currently as high as it will be this year. I truly believe that. If you want to move him, now is the time. Frankly, it’s declined a bit over the last several weeks as more and more evidence of a Blount timeshare has surfaced.
I’m not saying that Martin’s value can’t go up over time; I’m saying it’s at a peak right now pending a stunning season. Doug Martin is going off the board as the RB14 in start-ups. That’s incredible for a player who hasn’t played a down in the NFL. Realistically, how much higher could he go in the near term?
As to your trade offer – I’d take it without any hesitation. MJD is a special player and is substantially more valuable to me than Martin. I look at dynasty in three year windows and I feel very good about MJD over that horizon.
3.) Why is Arian Foster the consensus 1.01 in both dynasty and redraft? Ray Rice is less injury prone and had a similar PPG. The Texans’ O-line has been reworked and Vickers is gone. – Trey in Tulsa
I don’t think that Foster is the consensus 1.01 in dynasty. (And I know little about redraft!)
I wouldn’t take Foster first overall. I’d take LeSean McCoy. And many owners would take Calvin Johnson or maybe even Aaron Rodgers. That to me means that Foster isn’t the consensus anything in dynasty. In fact, I’d guess that he went 1.01 in less than half the mocks I’ve done this year.
You make some very good points about the O-line and Vickers and you seem to support Ray Rice as a candidate for the 1.01. That’s fine. I think he’s a terrific cornerstone player for a dynasty team. The number one trait of a really successful dynasty owner is conviction. If you believe that Rice is the best player in dynasty and you have the 1.01, take him. It doesn’t matter what other people say. It’s your team and you are the GM. Isn’t that why we play?
Note: Let’s hope that Vickers can give a nice boost to DeMarco Murray.
4.) Why is Nate Washington so low on draft rankings? He is not often in the top 50 receivers. Does the addition of Kendall Wright really lower his value that much? – Ryan in Sioux Falls
It’s important when reviewing our ranks to look at both the composite ranking and the individual rankings. What you’ll see is that our rankers are in stark disagreement on Nate Washington. Some have him as a clear cut WR3 while others almost have him as waiver wire material in shallow leagues.
I’m closer to the WR3 ranking myself. However, you probably don’t need to draft or pay in a trade based off that type of ranking. Washington is not a highly coveted player and often can be had on the cheap.
I don’t think Washington’s low ranking is attributable to Kendall Wright – he’s been ranked like this for years. Washington was a mediocre receiver while in Pittsburgh and most felt the Titans grossly overpaid for him in free agency. The general opinion was that he could not hold up as a WR1 and would be a disappointment. The Titans quarterbacks also haven’t inspired a ton of confidence in fantasy owners.
I have fairly high expectations for Washington in 2012. I anticipate a lengthy absence for Kenny Britt and I know that Damian Williams cannot shoulder the load. I see no reason to project Washington outside of the top-36 for this year and that alone would push him up in my rankings.
5.) I just moved Trent Richardson, Brandon LaFell and a ’14 1st for A.J. Green and Beanie Wells. I needed another receiver (Nicks and Wallace are my only other quality starters). My main running backs are Foster, AP and Gerhart. Giving up Richardson hurt, should I be feeling buyer’s remorse or was this a good deal? – Jordan in Vancouver
I don’t have a big issue with this deal, but I wonder if you really needed to pay this heavily.
Beanie Wells is a serious question mark and I think his time in the league may be winding down. I doubt dynasty owners are willing to pay much for him in trades these days and return of Ryan Williams isn’t helping. I know that I wouldn’t give a 2014 first for him and I certainly wouldn’t give both the pick and Brandon LaFell.
That leaves Trent Richardson vs. AJ Green. Personally, I think you got the better end of this part of the trade (enough to make up for the other part, I’m not so sure). We haven’t seen Trent Richardson play in the NFL. And we’ve seen AJ Green excel in the league. That alone is enough for me to side with Green given their values are relatively close anyway.
Here’s the thing – you got your man. AJ Green is a player who’s fine to overpay for. He’s young, talented and seems to have his head on straight. You probably overpaid, but so be it. Rest easy and enjoy the AJ Green highlights; trust me there will be plenty.
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.