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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  I was wondering how you felt about the 2013 draft class.  I’m considering trading out of the 2013 draft class early because it looks so weak at this point. Brandt in Athens, GA

It’s early to start making blanket statements about the 2013 draft class.  History tells us that the player values will move around a fair amount between now and the NFL draft.  I remember Evan Royster being a top fantasy candidate going in to his final year.  How did that work out?

It is important to have a sense of it for the question you ask.  What’s a 2013 pick worth?  I don’t believe the 2013 class will shape up to be as good as either 2011 or 2012.  Last year was top heavy with AJ Green, Julio Jones and Mark Ingram.  And this year we got a super elite running back in Trent Richardson, plus depth in the form of stud quarterbacks and a slew of decent (not great) receivers.  This year is arguably the best dynasty draft class since 2009.

There are some nice players projected for the 2013 draft.  Marcus Lattimore jumps to mind along with Robert Woods, Justin Hunter and Keenan Allen.  I don’t anticipate 2013 to be nearly as deep as 2012.  There were guys going off the board in the second round of rookie drafts who still had me working trades to snap up this year.  I think 2013 will have some very nice first round players, but it will fall off more quickly.

You don’t need to be stockpiling 2013 picks.  If you get a decent trade offer that involves you sending a 2013 selection, that’s fine.

Note: To get in depth coverage of the 2013 draft class, join DLF Premium and take a look at Paymon Shokoohi’s four part series on the topic.

2.)  I’ve been offered MJD for Doug Martin in my 8-team league.  I’m new to dynasty.  Help! – Alex in Idaho

Welcome to dynasty! And this is a great question for a newbie.  There are a couple of dynasty tendencies that are showing up in this trade offer that we can all learn from.

First:  There is generally a very high value put on young running backs who appear to be in good situations.  Doug Martin is one of the most hyped players in dynasty right now because he has talent and is competing with LeGarrette Blount, who many believe is mediocre or worse.  Mark my words, this happens every single year.  Last year, the example was Daniel Thomas.  What’s his value now?  To be 100% clear, I’m not saying that Doug Martin is like Daniel Thomas.  He’s not.  What I’m saying is there is always a player who gets a lot of attention thanks in large part to situation.

Second:  There is a fear of age.  Dynasty owners are a competitive bunch.  Heck, we play a year round game when only 16 weeks of the year (if we’re lucky) our team is actually “on the field.”  I think ego drives owners to move players prematurely because they don’t want to be the guy who gets left holding the bag.

You’re seeing both of these tendencies in this offer.  I’ll say this right now – Doug Martin’s trade value is currently as high as it will be this year.  I truly believe that.  If you want to move him, now is the time.  Frankly, it’s declined a bit over the last several weeks as more and more evidence of a Blount timeshare has surfaced.

I’m not saying that Martin’s value can’t go up over time; I’m saying it’s at a peak right now pending a stunning season.  Doug Martin is going off the board as the RB14 in start-ups.  That’s incredible for a player who hasn’t played a down in the NFL.  Realistically, how much higher could he go in the near term?

As to your trade offer – I’d take it without any hesitation.  MJD is a special player and is substantially more valuable to me than Martin.  I look at dynasty in three year windows and I feel very good about MJD over that horizon.

3.)  Why is Arian Foster the consensus 1.01 in both dynasty and redraft?  Ray Rice is less injury prone and had a similar PPG.  The Texans’ O-line has been reworked and Vickers is gone.  – Trey in Tulsa

I don’t think that Foster is the consensus 1.01 in dynasty.  (And I know little about redraft!)

I wouldn’t take Foster first overall.  I’d take LeSean McCoy.  And many owners would take Calvin Johnson or maybe even Aaron Rodgers.  That to me means that Foster isn’t the consensus anything in dynasty.  In fact, I’d guess that he went 1.01 in less than half the mocks I’ve done this year.

You make some very good points about the O-line and Vickers and you seem to support Ray Rice as a candidate for the 1.01.  That’s fine.  I think he’s a terrific cornerstone player for a dynasty team.  The number one trait of a really successful dynasty owner is conviction.  If you believe that Rice is the best player in dynasty and you have the 1.01, take him.  It doesn’t matter what other people say.  It’s your team and you are the GM.  Isn’t that why we play?

Note: Let’s hope that Vickers can give a nice boost to DeMarco Murray.

4.) Why is Nate Washington so low on draft rankings?  He is not often in the top 50 receivers.  Does the addition of Kendall Wright really lower his value that much?  Ryan in Sioux Falls

It’s important when reviewing our ranks to look at both the composite ranking and the individual rankings.  What you’ll see is that our rankers are in stark disagreement on Nate Washington.  Some have him as a clear cut WR3 while others almost have him as waiver wire material in shallow leagues.

I’m closer to the WR3 ranking myself.  However, you probably don’t need to draft or pay in a trade based off that type of ranking.  Washington is not a highly coveted player and often can be had on the cheap.

I don’t think Washington’s low ranking is attributable to Kendall Wright – he’s been ranked like this for years.  Washington was a mediocre receiver while in Pittsburgh and most felt the Titans grossly overpaid for him in free agency.  The general opinion was that he could not hold up as a WR1 and would be a disappointment.  The Titans quarterbacks also haven’t inspired a ton of confidence in fantasy owners.

I have fairly high expectations for Washington in 2012.  I anticipate a lengthy absence for Kenny Britt and I know that Damian Williams cannot shoulder the load.  I see no reason to project Washington outside of the top-36 for this year and that alone would push him up in my rankings.

5.) I just moved Trent Richardson, Brandon LaFell and a ’14 1st for A.J. Green and Beanie Wells.  I needed another receiver (Nicks and Wallace are my only other quality starters).  My main running backs are Foster, AP and Gerhart.  Giving up Richardson hurt, should I be feeling buyer’s remorse or was this a good deal?  Jordan in Vancouver

I don’t have a big issue with this deal, but I wonder if you really needed to pay this heavily.

Beanie Wells is a serious question mark and I think his time in the league may be winding down.  I doubt dynasty owners are willing to pay much for him in trades these days and return of Ryan Williams isn’t helping.  I know that I wouldn’t give a 2014 first for him and I certainly wouldn’t give both the pick and Brandon LaFell.

That leaves Trent Richardson vs. AJ Green.  Personally, I think you got the better end of this part of the trade (enough to make up for the other part, I’m not so sure).  We haven’t seen Trent Richardson play in the NFL.  And we’ve seen AJ Green excel in the league.  That alone is enough for me to side with Green given their values are relatively close anyway.

Here’s the thing – you got your man.  AJ Green is a player who’s fine to overpay for.  He’s young, talented and seems to have his head on straight.  You probably overpaid, but so be it.  Rest easy and enjoy the AJ Green highlights; trust me there will be plenty.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

39 Comments
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VoiceofUnreason
10 years ago

For a guy who values Nate Washington I find it strange you don’t think Beanie is worth a 2014 first. Beanie is the real underrated player. Washington had 1 decent year only because he was the only experienced/decent option left on the field when Britt went down. His value will quickly go to zero when Britt is back in October and Wright starts eating into Washington’s playing time.

Ryan Williams injury will be very hard for him to come back from and be the same player. And it’s unlikely he’ll have a huge impact this year at any rate. To say Beanie is nearing his end at 24 is pretty crazy.

Zach Walters
Reply to  VoiceofUnreason
10 years ago

The problem with Beanie is not his age, it’s that he just isn’t a very good football player.

See also: Greene, Shonn

Adam
Reply to  VoiceofUnreason
10 years ago

But what does one have to do with the other? Because you don’t dislike one guy you are supposed to not dislike another guy? That logic defies logic.

Ryan Krcil
Reply to  VoiceofUnreason
10 years ago

What scares me about Beanie is that he possibly had micro fracture surgery…

ggeorge
Reply to  Ryan Krcil
10 years ago

Beanie is not Shon Green. Not even close.

ggeorge
Reply to  ggeorge
10 years ago

Beanie is better

sixshooter
Reply to  ggeorge
10 years ago

I would take Greene before Wells……R Williams will be taking over for the oft-injured Beanie and Greene has who to compete with for carries and is in a contract year? Greene is definitely the better choice here!

Coach
10 years ago

wasn’t the big talk last year that Vonta Leach left the Texans? Now its a big deal that Vickers left? Foster makes any fullback good. He’s the number 1 in a draft in any format in my opinion.

Chris Russell
Reply to  Coach
10 years ago

Thought the same thing…and Rice was just a good last year with Leach as the previous.

It’s a luxury that I’m sure the top runners enjoy but does not make them a top runner.

Reply to  Coach
10 years ago

Certain RBs NNED a fullback, some don’t. Look at DeMarco Murray’s stats the games Tony Fiametta missed last year? He was very ordinary in those games.

I don’t think Foster is a back that needs an elite FB though and he is my choice for 1.01.

sixshooter
Reply to  Eric Olinger
10 years ago

Foster is definitely the #1 pick in most every re-draft league out there and is also up there in many Dynasty leagues since owners are hoping to pick up Tate to keep the tradition of having a top RB in an offense that takes full advantage of the RB in both the running and passing game.

Rice got off to a slow start last year but ended up well. Either way…..Foster, hands down, would be my choice of the two or even three if you include McCoy!

Fife
10 years ago

I am in a 16 team league, 40 man rosters, and idp. My rb’s are terrible and they sell at a premium. There is only one person selling and he has Darren McFadden. I offererd him 2 2013 1st round picks. He wants me to include Jermain Gresham.

Does anyone else think this is too much for DMC?

Brian
Reply to  Fife
10 years ago

Gresham is just a guy. If you really want McFadden then throw him in and get it done. No sense in passing on a stud because the guy wants a borderline starting TE thrown into the deal.

pstrim
Reply to  Fife
10 years ago

Take that deal and run with it. To get DMC for 2picks and an ok TE is a no brainer imo.

sixshooter
Reply to  Fife
10 years ago

Not sure how high you feel the 2013 1st rd picks will be but that would certainly factor into my decision as well as how close you are to having a championship team. DMC has not proven he can stay healthy for a year which “should” hurt his value but doesn’t seem to be the case this year as the DMC owner in one of my Dynasty leagues “supposedly” has 3 pending offers for him so he put him on the block to try to garnish more interest.

If you are really wanting DMC and feel you are a running back away from the title, then go for it…..otherwise….you have to think for the future and RB’s don’t last long. The first question I always ask myself before agreeing to a trade is “will this player help me win a Championship”.

The reason for that question is because there is a different answer to just about every question in Dynasty depending on whether you are rebuilding a team from the ground up or are a player or two away from winning it all. There is a big difference in my opinion when making roster decisions especially when it involves a trade!

German C.
10 years ago

Wells well underrated, he has his knees scoped, so what ? Colston had in the past , MJD had in the past and they then were almost declared as bust , alot of players undergo such procedure.

but best nonsense is that Ryan Williams is coming back…..! from Torn Patella Tendon….c’mon,

see WR Childs recently….after Patella injury comes back just to tore both Patella again…!

see Clayton , See Cadillac…….Patella Tendon Rupture is way more serious than ACL injury.

we talk about football players, doing cuts etc. and getting hit by 300 pounds something ” i ‘ll take off your head” guys….this is no Vollyball….!,,!

if Williams who did not even had one run in the NFL yet, comes back than only as a spot player , good for real team , but never ever will help your fantasy team not even as a flex.

of course Wells is no stud to count on , but real good value player due to his ADP , for bye week and injury fil in duties.

dave hoover
10 years ago

you say it’s ok to overpay for a.j. green, so , how about overpaying for julio jones? have an offer of julio jones for steve ridley and mike wallace, too high of a price??? my running back depth is just ok with spiller,shonn greene, helu and ridley, receivers are fairly solid with calvin, wallace, miles austin, mike williams and cobb. what to do???

Forrest Cohn
Reply to  dave hoover
10 years ago

easy accept. easy

Sofa King Dynasty
Reply to  dave hoover
10 years ago

DO THAT!!!

john harstad
Reply to  dave hoover
10 years ago

Jump on that offer..
Julio is the next Randy Moss without the drama..

Reply to  john harstad
10 years ago

so you’re saying Julio will be either the greatest or 2nd greatest WR of all time?

John Giles
10 years ago

Ryan Williams will takeover over before midseason.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  John Giles
10 years ago

I agree. I’m not scared of the injury.

I have him in a number of leagues, and I just reluctantly traded him for a 2013 1st from a team I expect to be picking top 6. He still has value on the trade market.

Michael
10 years ago

I’m drafting at 1.3 & 1.7 in this years Dynasty Draft. Assuming Richardson, RG3, Luck, Martin, Blackmon & Floyd go in first 6…Who is your next top 5 in order that you would pick?

Derek
Reply to  Michael
10 years ago

If David Wilson is there at #7…jump on him…were talking dynasty, and he will be a stud…I’m thinking about offering MJD to the owner of Wilson in my league after the draft…I have T.Rich, R.Willams, Leshoure, MJD

Sofa King Dynasty
Reply to  Michael
10 years ago

Second Wilson. Watch some videos. Dude is explosive and runs with violent intention.

Ryan Krcil
Reply to  Michael
10 years ago

I have a jones for Wilson. Traded down to #8 actually to get him in my draft.

David Friday
10 years ago

Tim,

With all due respect, Foster is clearly the #1 choice. McCoy scored 17 TD’s last and he still did not have more points per game than Foster – this even takes into account Foster’s hammy injury during a game. Philly O line is not any better than last year and Philly is not a run first team. The Foster/Tate pair are the safest bet at RB in all of FFL. Foster and McVCoy have had almost the exact sma enumber of touches so they are the same age RB wise. Forster is the clear choice to me.

Ryan Krcil
Reply to  David Friday
10 years ago

I am a believer that McCoy’s value is with Vick. Not dependent on him but the way Vick spreads the defense really helps McCoy get in good situations.

sixshooter
Reply to  David Friday
10 years ago

Have to agree with David……Foster is the clear cut choice as the #1 back especially with most having Rice as the #2. Doesn’t matter if it is Dynasty or re-draft……Foster is the #1!

Rob
10 years ago

I agree with Tim. In Dynasty, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, and Calvin are all viable choices @ 1.1

For me, it would probably look like this:

Calvin
Rice or McCoy
Rodgers
Foster

…with Foster being 5th. There are plenty of ways to build a team and having any one of those guys would be a nice cornerstone.

In redraft leagues, I could easily see it being more geared toward Foster #1 as there is less consideration for the future.

Derek
Reply to  Rob
10 years ago

Just need some thoughts from others. My dynasty draft starts Thursday morning, I’m in the 8th spot, (16tm) don’t figure D.Wilson will be there, I thinking Kendall Hunter-RB-SF, K.Wright-WR-TN, B.Quick-WR-Stl, L.Miller-RB-Mia? Wright seems the sure thing, but what is thought on Hunter? Do you think he’s the man by 2013? Gore is getting old. I don’t need immediate help, my team is already good-M.Stafford, MJD, T.Rich,R.Williams, Leshoure, A.Johnson,AJ.Green,E.Decker,L.Hankerson,G.Little, J.Finley. RB’s are hard to come by, I don’t want to grab Hunter just because of that when I’m sure Wright will be a top 15 for many yrs! Thoughts?

Malte
Reply to  Derek
10 years ago

If you really want to take an RB, I’d take Miller. Hunter could (and should) have more value short-term since he could be inserted into the starting lineup any day when Gore gets injured. But even then, he’ll most likely be in a time-share with Jacobs and James. I don’t think SF views him as the long-term solution and neither should you. Miller won’t see a lot of snaps this year, but he’s the most talented back in the Dolphins backfield. That should really kick in next year when Bush is gone and only Daniel Thomas as serious competition for the starting job. All reports suggest that Miller is far more talented, so there shouldn’t be much competition at all.

As for Wright, he’s definitely talented and should make for a fairly good WR2 in a few years. He could produce immediately, that’s what seperates him a bit from Miller. I think their long-term value should be about the same, so it really depends on your decision. I’d probably take Miller since your RBs aren’t nearly as deep as your WR. But given that Miller’s impact is more hypothetical as anything else, you could make a good argument for Wright as well.

dave hoover
Reply to  Derek
10 years ago

you might want to consider i. pead, rb rams. i think he will be a starter real soon for the rams and produce at a high level for years to come…

sixshooter
Reply to  Rob
10 years ago

So why would Foster have more value in redraft than Dynasty? He is the younger of the three after all and if you wish to handcuff him at least his handcuff is clear. Age certainly should be a consideration for the future and Tate will not win over the starting job in Houston unless Foster is unable to play. Foster is an incredible back who is capable of getting you a 100 yds receiving just as much as he is capable of getting you a 100 yds rushing and has shown the ability to do both in one game!

alden bietz
10 years ago

So if I have a choice of QB Griffin or RB Martin, at the 3rd pick in a rookie draft even if I have a bigger need at RB. Am I right in assuming its better to take Griffen because of longer tearm value plus. His future trade value could be worth being patient.

fife
Reply to  alden bietz
10 years ago

I was in the exact situation and I went Griffin. It was a tough pill to swallow but I think a stud qb has more value.

alden bietz
Reply to  fife
10 years ago

thanks for the input

Cullen
10 years ago

Where’s the love for Antonio brown? He appears to be the next Hines Ward, only with more elusiveness. Him and Pierre garcon are setting up to have quality seasons, heck, their contacts may allow for great three to five year runs. Anyone agree?

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