A friend of DLF, Smitty, at DraftCalc.com (check them out) invited us to participate in a new “expert” dynasty league he pulled together.
It’s a pretty straight forward Non-IDP PPR format with 24 roster spots. Normally I like to see north of 30 roster spots in my dynasty leagues, but 24 is deep enough to keep it interesting yet shallow enough to make for some intriguing waiver wire and free agent acquisitions. It’s a 2/2/1 (RB/WR/Flex) format . The participants for this expert league are as follows:
1. DraftCalc.com (Host)
It’s a great bunch with some of the expected heavy hitters representing. It will be a lot of fun to go to head-to-head with this group and make a few new friends along the way.
I’ll be updating the blog after each round has completed as time permits. I’ll also be adding my commentary and analysis along the way as well. Our draft started on July 19th and the order was as follows:
1.02 DraftCalc.com (Host)
1.01 FantasyFootballStarters – Aaron Rodgers QB GB
1.02 DraftCalc – Arian Foster RB HOU
1.03 FantasyFootballXtreme – Ray Rice RB BAL
1.04 BrunoBoys – LeSean McCoy RB PHI
1.05 FantasySharks – Calvin Johnson WR DET
1.06 FantasyFootballCalculator – Trent Richardson RB CLE
1.07 FootballDiehards – Matt Stafford QB DET
1.08 DynastyLeagueFootball – Ryan Mathews RB SD
1.09 FantasyTaz – Chris Johnson RB TEN
1.10 Footballguys – A.J. Green WR CIN
1.11 FantasyFootballXtreme (From JunkYardJake) – Cam Newton QB CAR
1.12 FFToday – Jimmy Graham TE NO
The top five aren’t surprising to me. What is surprising is that Aaron Rodgers went number one overall. That said, how early is too early to take the leading fantasy point producer? I wouldn’t necessarily lead out with Rodgers myself, but I can support the move. I do fear for what the Starters will get in the bottom of the second round in the way of running back talent. But with Rodgers outproducing every other player on the planet, you don’t have to pair him with a top back to be competitive.
Picks 1.02 through 1.05 are fine. Each coach will have his or her own order for them, but they are all solid picks. 1.06 is a bit of a surprise to me, but another one that I can support. I had Richardson dialed in for my 1.08 selection, but felt it was a bit early for him even then. My draft list was between Richardson and Ryan Mathews. Playing in Cleveland and without a single NFL snap, it’s tough for me to go mid first round with TRich. But being that I was considering him at 1.08, I can’t fault the move. Diehards take Stafford at 1.07. I’m not really on board with the pick myself but if he stays healthy for a second year, then he’s golden in my book. Still too early for Stafford for me, but he’s young, he throws to Calvin Johnson and am I the only one that sees Detroit being a potential offensive powerhouse?
I don’t like risks in the first round. Ryan Mathews is a relatively easy choice for me, although I considered Fitz and A.J. Green. Being that you MUST start two backs, I felt I needed to lock up one that is sure to be a workhorse. While I’m confident that Mathews is supposed to be a workhorse, I’m still nervous about his injury history. His value is up in PPR and I’m happy to have him. I also considered Chris Johnson here, but was hoping he might slip to me in the second. Nope.
1.09 FantasyTaz (Jim Day) rains on my parade and selects CJ1K. I didn’t think he was going to slip but I did have visions of dancing in the streets if he somehow did. I think Johnson will be back in form in 2012 and is an easy first round selection. A.J. Green going at 1.10 to FootballGuys is no real surprise, although I think he could be over-valued in PPR. I’m not completely sold on Andy Dalton at quarterback and I don’t think Green is a lock for 75 receptions this year. It’s early to be taking a young receiver that may not put up WR1 numbers, but there’s no arguing his upside. My gut feeling is screaming at me that it’s still too early for Green.
First trade of the league – Fantasy Football Xtreme gives up 3.03 and 4.10 for the rights to select Cam Newton at 1.11. That’s a lot to give in my book and while I do believe Newton is going to have another good year, not having a third and fourth round pick is going to hurt when the time comes. Pretty risky move but having Ray Rice, Newton and likely another young player at 2.10 should be a nice trio. I had the opportunity for a similar trade but I’m interested mostly in standing pat to see what kind of team I can put together from the eight-hole.
Rounding out the first round at 1.12 is a selection of Jimmy Graham by FFToday. I can’t tell whether I love the pick or hate it. That alone tells me that it doesn’t feel wrong enough to say anything negative. It’s awfully early to go TE1, but Graham is deserving as any have been. However, as a tight end representing the first pick, he had better produce at a very high level.
The second and third rounds will be the most interesting to me as we see how coaches want to build their teams. Go for the ring early or build through youth and a stronger foundation in three to four years? I know what my strategy is this time around and I tend to use these types of leagues as playpens of sorts. Any way you slice it, the competition here knows what they’re doing and there are no slouches. I am really looking forward to the next 24 picks.
Round two is coming up. A couple of interesting things to discuss ….
2.01 FFToday – DeMarco Murray RB DAL
2.02 JunkYardJake – Matt Forte RB CHI
2.03 FootballGuys – Julio Jones WR ATL
2.04 FantasyTaz – Rob Gronkowski TE NE
2.05 DynastyLeagueFootball – Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
2.06 FootballDiehards – Adrian Peterson RB MIN
2.07 FantasyFootballCalculator – Drew Brees QB NO
2.08 FantasySharks – Dez Bryant WR DAL
2.09 BrunoBoys – Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAX
2.10 FantasyFootballXtreme – Darren McFadden RB OAK
2.11 DraftCalc – Hakeem Nicks WR NYG
2.12 FantasyFootballStarters – Wes Welker WR NE
Things are starting to get interesting now but there were only a few surprises in round two.
The selection of DeMarco Murray this early REALLY surprises me. He is well down my list and I think he could have been had in the mid-to-late round three, maybe even round four. Forte’, Jones and Gronk all going before my pick at 2.05 is no surprise. What is a surprise, at least to me, is that Fitzgerald was still available at 2.05. He’s still a first round talent in my mind, even with his quarterback situation. With all his troubles in 2011, he was still the WR5 in scoring. I’m pleased to have my favorite player at this point in the draft.
Diehards step up with a selection of Peterson at 2.06. GREAT value here and I almost took him at 2.05, he was the only other player I considered. But it’s also clear that I am higher on Peterson that most others at DLF. Drew Brees at 2.07 is about right in my book. Sharks take Bryant at 2.08 which is a small reach given character concerns, at least in my mind. He’s got a world of talent and a lot of opportunity but I wouldn’t touch him in the second. That said, the Sharks have Calvin Johnson as their WR1. It’s a decent risk-reward play on the notion that he’ll eventually “get it”.
MJD goes at 2.09. Backs like Peterson and MJD start their value slide when they reach 27 years of age it appears. McFadden at 2.10 is a nice get. Risky? Yes. Talented? Yes. Could be the steal of the draft or could rip your heart out. Nicks drafted by Smitty at DraftCalc at 2.11 is a nice play late in the second. Paired with Arian Foster, DraftCalc has a nice foundation forming. Wes Welker is an intriguing pick to close out the second round. He’s aging quickly but is a top fantasy producer. An early choice of Welker usually signals “I want to win now”. FantasyFootballStarters now has Rodgers and Welker. Will they keep drafting veterans to make a serious play in 2012? We’ll see.
3.01 FantasyFootballStarters – Doug Martin RB TB
3.02 DraftCalc – Tom Brady QB NE
3.03 JunkYardJake (from FantasyFootballXtreme) – Robert Griffin III
3.04 BrunoBoys – Andre Johnson WR HOU
3.05 FantasySharks – Jamaal Charles RB KC
3.06 FantasyFootballCalculator – Greg Jennings WR GB
3.07 FootballDiehards – Jordy Nelson WR GB
3.08 DynastyLeagueFootball – Victor Cruz WR NYG
3.09 FantasyTaz – Brandon Marshall WR CHI
3.10 Footballguys – Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
3.11 JunkYardJake – Jeremy Maclin WR PHI
3.12 FFToday – Darren Sproles RB NO
Some interesting things developing here in round three. Just when I thought FantasyFootballStarters was drafting for the win with a veteran strategy, Doug Martin goes at 3.01. A bold move. If he’s starting and doesn’t overly split time with LeGarrette Blount, it’s brilliant. As a RB1, however, I’m not sure I’d like to carry Martin in that role. That said, if you like Martin’s long term upside, then you can always add a veteran later. Rookies due tend to go earlier in these start-up drafts and coaches build for the future.
Tom Brady at 3.02 is a decent pick, good value yet not too high. JunkYardJake continues to be a thorn in my side. Every draft has a coach that seems to be on my wave length and he is it in this draft. I was really counting on over-drafting RGIII in the third round, maybe the fourth depending on how the draft unfolded. As it stands, RGIII is called early in the third and the quarterback position just isn’t as important to me now. Bruno Boys sees the draft timer expire and he ends up with Andre Johnson at 3.04. Not a bad consolation prize. Charles, Jennings and Nelson go in the middle of the third. Only surprise to me is that Jennings didn’t go a bit higher but Nelson’s 2011 has taken the bloom off of Jennings to a degree and coaches are wondering if there are enough balls to go around.
I have a tough choice at 3.08. It comes down to Victor Cruz, Roddy White and Jeremy Maclin. Brandon Marshall is a knucklehead and I just don’t want him. It really comes down to the aging White and Cruz. Ultimately, I think Cruz has that “it” factor and that he can repeat his 2011 performance . I’ll take the youth over age and established production, but it’s close. He’s a nice complement to Fitzgerald and Mathews.
As expected, Brandon Marshall follows relatively quickly. Demaryius Thomas goes off at 3.10, a bit of a surprise to me but seeing as how I had him targeted with a possible fourth round selection, a bit early in my mind, I applaud the early selection by FootballGuys. JunkyardJake takes Maclin which is a solid pick. The 29 year old Darren Sproles, who represents great veteran production at running back is the last pick of the third round.
Not a ton of surprises in round three. Notable absentees are Marshawn Lynch (knucklehead), Kenny Britt (knucklehead) and Roddy White (I don’t get it). The fourth round is coming up and White is still on the board. He will be 31 in November so obviously age is a concern. Given the offense and his targets, I think he’s fine for at least the next three seasons.
4.01 FFToday – Mike Wallace WR PIT
4.02 JunkYardJake – Roy Helu RB WAS
4.03 FootballGuys – Jahvid Best RB DET
4.04 FantasyTaz – Percy Harvin WR MIN
4.05 DynastyLeagueFootball – Roddy White WR ATL
4.06 FootballDiehards – Steve Smith WR CAR
4.07 FantasyFootballCalculator – Miles Austin WR DAL
4.08 FantasySharks – Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
4.09 BrunoBoys – Dwayne Bowe WR KC
4.10 JunkYardJake – Jermichael Finley TE GB
4.11 DraftCalc – Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
4.12 FantasyFootballStarters – Marques Colston WR NO
The real strategy begins here and I usually really look forward to rounds four and five. I often like to trade away late first round selections in order to stock pile extra picks in these two rounds.
Mike Wallace going at 4.01 could be considered a value selection. I’m not a Wallace fan myself, but he is intriguing. And due to his contract situation this year, he’s a bit of a mystery. But he’ll no doubt be in camp shortly. I keep waiting for Wallace to drop off yet he still keeps putting up top ten numbers.
Roy Helu at 4.02 is a curious selection and I’m not really on board with it, but I’m happy to see him go here. I stay away from Shanahan running backs as a general rule. Whichever back eventually does emerge in Washington will have real value. Problem is, that value is often only for a couple of weeks before things change.
Jahvid Best at 4.03. A beast or bust pick and one I wouldn’t make. I think there’s a very good chance that Best’s career ends this year. If he stays healthy, I think he can be one of those players that can put a competing team over the top. I just wouldn’t have made that move this early.
Percy Harvin at 4.04 is a nice value and the migraine issue continues to scare off coaches. He’s also growing more unhappy and it could be that his time is coming to an end as a Viking. He’ll outproduce this draft position in my mind.
At 4.05, I’m still amazed that Roddy White is still on the board and the choice is easy in my mind. I feel I’m going to be very strong at receiver with Fitzgerald, Cruz and White. But I don’t have a second running back yet and quarterback is still a concern. My hope was that Jonathan Stewart would continue to drop. He wouldn’t.
The next three picks go Steve Smith (CAR), Miles Austin and Jonathan Stewart. No real surprises here and all are solid picks here in the fourth. Smith may have been taken a bit high, but he should post solid numbers once again in 2012.
Dwayne Bowe at 4.09 is a nice value and this could be his last year in KC. I’d like to see him playing elsewhere in 2013 and with a more established quarterback. Until he does, his production will be muted, but he’s still young enough to invest in.
Finley hears his name called at 4.10. Nice value for a tight end that I think will finally put it all together in 2012. He was on my short list for round five. Marshawn Lynch, another player on my list for the fifth, finally is off the board. Not sure what to think about his value but I think I like it here. Last pick in the fourth is Marques Colston. I’m avoiding him completely, but he still has value.
5.01 FantasyFootball Starters – Antonio Brown WR PIT
5.02 DraftCalc – C.J. Spiller RB BUF
5.03 FantasyFootballXtreme – Stevie Johnson WR BUF
5.04 BrunoBoys – Steven Jackson RB STL
5.05 FantasySharks – Ben Tate RB HOU
5.06 DraftCalc – Kenny Britt WR TEN
5.07 FantasyDiehards – David Wilson RB NYG
5.08 DynastyLeagueFootball – Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG
5.09 FantasyTaz – Eli Manning QB NYG
5.10 FootballGuys – Fred Jackson RB BUF
5.11 FantasyFootballToday – Eric Decker WR DEN
5.12 JunkYardJake – Torrey Smith WR BAL
Rounds four, five and six are core building rounds and they often dictate who will be the top teams in the next year.
Antonio Brown, C.J. Spiller and Stevie Johnson are all good picks here in the fifth. I’m still not high on Spiller but I’m more intrigued than I have been and there’s nothing wrong with an early selection on a player you believe in. This is a good round to do it as, if you wait, he’ll end up on another team.
Steven Jackson is a GREAT core pick at 5.04. I had my hopes that he’d last until my pick after missing out on a few players in the fourth. DraftCalc goes risky again with Kenny Britt. He’s got quite the roster of high risk high reward players. It will only take a couple of these players to pan out for him to really have a nice roster.
David Wilson goes off at 5.07, ahead of Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw’s health issues have dropped his value to the point where the incoming rookie goes ahead of him. Wilson has drawn rave reviews for his quickness and burst, but I’ve watched a lot of tape on him and I’m not a big fan. Not big enough to select him ahead of Bradshaw at least. To wit, I select Bradshaw at 5.08. Despite his injury history, I love how he runs, he’s got a nose for the end zone and he’s great out of the backfield in the passing game. I fully expect his touchdown total to rise. I’d like to have less risk as my RB2 but I’m pleased to have him in the fifth. The choice came down to Eli Manning and Bradshaw.
Sure enough, Manning exits at 5.09. Good value for the under-appreciated passer. The timer expires on FootballGuys again and he ends up with Fred Jackson based on ADP. Fine by me.
At 5.11, Eric Decker lasted longer than I thought he would. I don’t think he’s going to be WR1 for the Broncos, but his value is certainly up for 2012 due to the addition of Peyton Manning.
Torrey Smith closes out round five.
Heading into round six, I have a real choice to make. There are still good players available that could really add to my core, but I also don’t yet have a quarterback or a tight end. The big names are off the board in that area so I have to really get down to business for my next three picks. I have a plan, but I’m doing a bit more research before committing to it.
6.01 FFToday – Aaron Hernandez TE NE
6.02 JunkYardJake – Shonn Greene RB NYJ
6.03 FootballGuys – Vernon Davis TE SF
6.04 FantasyTaz – Mark Ingram, RB NO
6.05 DynastyLeagueFootball – Matt Ryan QB ATL
6.06 FootballDiehards – Vincent Jackson WR TB
6.07 FantasyFootballCalculator – Andrew Luck QB IND
6.08 FantasySharks – Michael Vick QB PHI
6.09 BrunoBoys – Jason Witten TE DAL
6.10 FantasyFootballXtreme – DeSean Jackson WR PHI
6.11 FantasyFootballCalculator – Reggie Bush RB MIA
6.12 FantasyFootballStarters – Isaac Redman RB PIT
Round six was a good round in general with few surprises. Aaron Hernandez at 6.01 is a nice get and he fell further than I expected. I kept trying to find a way to grab him but couldn’t make it happen and I still am not confident that both New England tight ends are going to perform as they did in 2011. I’m glad to see Shonn Greene go off the board early in the sixth. I want nothing to do with him and I think it’s far too early for him to be drafted. I was considering Mark Ingram at 6.05 myself but really didn’t want to have to step up. I don’t want to take a running back simply because I want a third back. I’m really focusing on adding quality players fully understanding that I can always acquire an older back later for depth or acquire a younger back in trade. Or, simply just take some shots late on depth chart backs and wait for an injury. I don’t feel pressured to add another back behind Mathews and Bradshaw at this juncture. At least not before filling out my core.
Naturally, Ingram goes ahead of me at 6.04. I’m not disappointed. My goal was to end up with at least a top eight quarterback and I think Ryan is that guy. He’s improved each year and while I don’t expect him to make it into the top four, I think he can be a top six back. He’s durable, has great receivers and I’m hoping this is the year that he puts it all together. Either way, it takes a lot of pressure off to have filled that role. Now I only need a tight end and I’m hoping one of two that I have my eye on continue to fall.
Andrew Luck at 6.07 is a good pick. I had considered him instead of Ryan but felt the need to secure my near-term starter first. Luck is going to be a great player in the NFL. That’s as much of an absolute statement that you’re going to get from me.
Rest of the picks are about as expected with the exception of Isaac Redman at 6.12. A bit early for Redman but this is on the heels of the news that Pittsburgh is willing to let Rashard Mendenhall walk in 2013. Redman isn’t flashy but he can get the job done. He runs as hard as Mendy does and has softer hands. I think Redman is a sneaky play in 2012 but I like him more in round eight or later.
7.01 FantasyFootball Starters – Peyton Hillis RB KC
7.02 FantasyFootballCalculator – Denarius Moore WR OAK
7.03 FantasyFootballXtreme – Brandon Lloyd WR NE
7.04 BrunoBoys – Philip Rivers QB SD
7.05 FantasySharks – Justin Blackmon WR JAX
7.06 FantasyFootballCalculator – Brandon Pettigrew TE DET
7.07 FantasyDiehards – Randall Cobb WR GB
7.08 DynastyLeagueFootball – Michael Crabtree WR SF
7.09 FantasyTaz – Ryan Williams RB ARI
7.10 FootballGuys – Peyton Manning QB DEN
7.11 JunkYardJake – Robert Meachem WR SD
7.12 FFToday – Tony Romo QB DAL
Things begin to unwind for me here in the seventh. I have two selections that I’m trying to decide between: 1) Justin Blackmon and 2) Brandon Pettigrew. I’m really wanting to finish off my core so that I can start value-selecting in round eight. By round eight or nine, I like to start taking a few educated chances, even if it means drafting a player or two well before they should be drafted. I’m willing to take that risk after I’m comfortable that I have a starting lineup that I’m happy with. As it happens, both players are taken just before my selection. Pettigrew was going to finish my core but Blackmon I thought represented a nice value.
Pick 7.03, Brandon Lloyd, is a nice selection that I think could well outplay his slot. Lloyd isn’t “sexy” but he sure could be in New England. I have my eye on Ryan Williams in round eight or nine but he is selected directly after I select Michael Crabtree at 7.08. I cuss out loud when I see Williams’ name show up in my email. Either way, I’m pleased to see Crabtree fall and I think he represents a nice value with upside here in the seventh. It gives me a quality WR4 with upside.
I was curious where Peyton Manning would fall. I had a plan in mind where I would take him shortly after taking Ryan as my secondary quarterback, but I don’t have to worry about that now.
I have a feeling round eight is going to be a real nightmare. I can feel it. I still don’t have a RB3 nor a tight end. There is one remaining tight end that I really like that I believe most are missing out on. I’ll likely have to step up and select him even though there are other options I like remaining on the board.
8.01 JunkYardJake – Donald Brown RB IND
8.02 FFToday – James Starks RB GB
8.03 FootballGuys – Ronnie Hillman RB DEN
8.04 FantasyTaz – Beanie Wells RB ARI
8.05 DynastyLeagueFootball – Fred Davis TE WAS
8.06 FootballDiehards – Antonio Gates TE SD
8.07 FantasyFootballCalculators – DeAngelo Williams RB CAR
8.08 FantasySharks – Mikel Leshoure RB DET
8.09 BrunoBoys -Michael Floyd WR ARI
8.10 FantasyFootballXtreme – Pierre Garcon WR WAS
8.11 FootballGuys – Frank Gore RB SF
8.12 FantasyFootballStarters – Greg Little WR CLE
Yep, a nightmare of massive proportions. Still needing a third running back at the close of the seventh round, I had finally set on a plan to acquire that back. In order, I wanted 1) James Starks 2) Ronnie Hillman and 3) Donald Brown. They represented the next tier and picking fifth in the round, I was sure I’d land one of them. As it stands, they all went with the first three picks. Best laid plans and all. FantasyTaz took Beanie Wells at 8.04. Wells is one of the backs that was completely off my radar. And I mean completely.
At 8.05, I use the pick to round out my core and complete my starters for the most part. Fred Davis is flying under the radar. Mostly because he’s this-side of being a knucklehead. Most coaches don’t realize that if not for the four game suspension he served in 2011, he would have been the TE3 overall if he scored his average points to close out the season. He’s still young and I suspect that RGIII will find him early and often as he rolls out of the pocket and draws the safety. Davis was my ace in the hole at the position and I didn’t want to risk losing him with the final tight end run set to occur any round now.
Don’t have much to say about the other picks. All look pretty good and the eolder veteran backs are starting to roll off the board. DeAngelo Williams and Frank Gore go this round. This leaves other such backs as Willis McGahee, Michael Turner and even Pierre Thomas still looking for a home. I have my eye on one of them but have another plan as an “out” before going the veteran route.
As it stands, round eight was worse than expected and while I’m pleased to have Davis to round out my starters, I had hoped to delay things another round before going to the well.
This is also the point where I like to start trading away picks for 2013 first rounders to teams that believe they have a chance to win it in 2012. Most coaches tend to over-estimate the strength of their team and are often eager to deal what they believe is a low draft pick for a chance to secure a ninth or tenth round player here. We’ll see. Thus far, I’ve been able to fend off multiple offers, one of which being the acquisition of a ninth, tenth and eleventh round selection for my eighth round selection. If I had landed my RB3, I would have taken it without much thought.
Now with my core in place and being relatively young, I can begin over-drafting those players that I believe are worthy. This doesn’t mean that I won’t take the value player that falls further than he should, but I’d rather take greater risk now with the full expectation that 33% of them only pan out. Go big or go home. With a small roster size (24) like we are playing, I want players that blow up or bust very quickly. You don’t want players that take up valuable space only to be professionally mediocre and not startable. That’s the death of many dynasty teams.
9.01 DraftCalc – Isaiah Pead RB STL
9.02 FootballGuys – Sidney Rice WR SEA
9.03 FantasyFootballXtreme – BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB CIN
9.04 BrunoBoys – Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
9.05 FantasySharks – Coby Fleener TE IND
9.06 FantasyFootballCalculator -Stephen Hill WR NYJ
9.07 FantasyDiehards – Kendall Hunter RB SF
9.08 DynastyLeagueFootball – Stevan Ridley RB NE
9.09 FantasyTaz – Darrius Heyward-Bey WR OAK
9.10 FootballGuys – Reggie Wayne WR IND
9.11 JunkYardJake – Brian Quick WR STL
9.12 FFToday – Titus Young WR DET
Rounds eight through twelve are extremely important in dynasty building. I actually like to extend that through fourteen as being a determinant for longer term success of the team. At this point in the draft, it becomes clear who has done their homework and who is taking blind stabs at players. A good coach that understands talent evaluation and depth chart mechanics can work magic in these rounds while other coaches end up needing to fill holes with older players. My goal is always to build a solid core group through rounds seven or eight and then be able to go young between rounds eight and fourteen, give or take a round. The more rounds you have to use to secure your starters, the less chance you have at adding those young players that can secure your near-term future.
I’m still playing catch-up here in round nine, more than I want to. I’d like to be one player deeper at running back than I am which would afford me taking a few risks at receiver. Instead, I’m looking at running back and going to try and make an educated choice that also has some upside.
Isaiah Pead goes at 9.01. Too early for my liking and I’m in the minority in that I don’t see Pead developing into Jackson’s heir apparent. But he’s the type of player that you can take a chance on if you’ve done a good job of building your core leading up to this point. Roethlisberger at 9.04 is a good value. He’s flirted with QB1 numbers in the past but is best in a QB2 role. Fleener at 9.05 is about what I expected but still two rounds too early in my estimation given the names still on the board. Stephen Hill at 9.06 is the type of player I really like to step up to in round nine and I was hoping he’d last until round ten. I’m not sure what to think about Kendall Hunter these days with Gore and LaMichael James really gumming things up. I’ll let someone else take that risk.
I take Stevan Ridley at 9.08. With Green-Ellis out of the picture, Ridley is certain to get extra work. How much extra work is anyone’s guess but I like his chances to see meaningful touches. Either way, he’s young and I only need RB4 numbers from him as I expect to go with one of the productive veterans in round ten to secure my running backs.
At 9.10, Reggie Wayne is a great addition. The round finishes with Brian Quick and Kevin Smith. Smith has a real opportunity if he can stay healthy, but I’ve been saying that for many years. At what point do we as fantasy coaches finally accept what a player is?
10.01 JunkYardJake – Kendall Wright WR TEN
10.02 FFToday – Kevin Smith RB DET
10.03 FootballGuys – Matt Schaub QB HOU
10.04 FantasyTaz – Jay Cutler QB CHI
10.05 DynastyLeagueFootball – Michael Turner RB ATL
10.06 FootballDiehards – Jared Cook TE TEN
10.07 FantasyFootballCalculators – Doug Baldwin WR SEA
10.08 FantasySharks – Josh Gordon WR CLE
10.09 BrunoBoys – Lance Moore WR NO
10.10 FantasyFootballXtreme – Mike Williams WR TB
10.11 FantasyFootballStarters – LeGarrette Blount RB TB
10.12 FantasyFootballStarters – Jacquizz Rodgers RB ATL
Kendall Wright is the first to go in round ten, he was on my short list should one of the veteran running backs not fall to me at 10.05. Kevin Smith at 10.02 is a risk-reward pick and I like it. If (big “if”) Smith can stay healthy, I think he’s got a great chance to put up good numbers in 2012. That said, “healthy” and Kevin Smith shouldn’t exist in the same paragraph together, let alone the same sentence.
My biggest need is at running back but I’m also feeling the need to add my second quarterback. Matt Schaub wasn’t on my list but Jay Cutler was and they go back-to-back before my selection. I think Cutler is a very heady selection and he’s is underrated in fantasy. I’m pleased to see Michael Turner fall to me in the tenth round. Of the veterans, he’s sure to get a lot of work and while the Falcons don’t expect him to get 300 touches in 2012, that should still put him at or above 1,000 yards, with perhaps eight touchdowns. I think he’ll be great as my RB3 for a year or two. This selection takes the pressure off.
I like the pick of Doug Baldwin at 10.07. Another underrated young receiver on a team needing play makers. He could be a great value selection. When I was on the clock at 10.05, I nearly selected Josh Gordon. I, instead, decided to test the waters a bit to see if he would last until my selection in the eleventh. He didn’t. I think the tenth round is over-drafting him and I doubt I’m comfortable drafting him any earlier.
What a difference a year makes. Tampa’s Mike Williams is selected at 10.10, a huge fall from preseason last year. I think he’s a good bet to have a decent year and I’m a bit surprised he lasted this long. I’m happy to see Blount go off the board, I don’t want anything to do with him. Jacquizz Rodgers was a player I was hoping would fall another couple of rounds as I would have liked to have paired him with Michael Turner. Not excited about his prospects but I think he could be a viable RB4 with upside.
The DLF team is (I have updated it with my selection in the eleventh round):
QB: Matt Ryan (6)
RB: Ryan Mathews (1), Ahmad Bradshaw (5), Stevan Ridley (9), Michael Turner (10)
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (2), Victor Cruz (3), Roddy White (4), Michael Crabtree (7), Alshon Jeffery (11)
TE: Fred Davis (8)
This will be my final update for this particular draft. I hope you have found it useful and that you can use it to gauge the approximate value of players.
- Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Four: Road Trip Edition - September 27, 2022
- Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Three: Road Trip Edition - September 20, 2022
- Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Two - September 17, 2022