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Expert League Draft Blog – Round Ten (Final)


A friend of DLF, Smitty, at DraftCalc.com (check them out) invited us to participate in a new “expert” dynasty league he pulled together.

It’s a pretty straight forward Non-IDP PPR format with 24 roster spots.  Normally I like to see north of 30 roster spots in my dynasty leagues, but 24 is deep enough to keep it interesting yet shallow enough to make for some intriguing waiver wire and free agent acquisitions.  It’s a 2/2/1 (RB/WR/Flex) format .  The participants for this expert league are as follows:

1.    DraftCalc.com (Host)
2.    DynastyLeagueFootball.com
3.    FootballGuys.com
4.    FantasyFootballCalculator.com
5.    FootballDiehards.com
6.    FantasySharks.com
7.    JunyardJake.com
8.    BrunoBoys.com
9.    FantasyFootballStarters.com
10.  FantasyTaz.com
11.  FFToday.com
12.  FantasyFootballXtreme.com

It’s a great bunch with some of the expected heavy hitters representing.  It will be a lot of fun to go to head-to-head with this group and make a few new friends along the way.

I’ll be updating the blog after each round has completed as time permits.  I’ll also be adding my commentary and analysis along the way as well.  Our draft started on July 19th and the order was as follows:

1.01  FantasyFootballStarters.com
1.02  DraftCalc.com (Host)
1.03  FantasyFootballXtreme.com
1.04  BrunoBoys.com
1.05  FantasySharks.com
1.06  FantasyFootballCalculator.com
1.07  FootballDiehards.com
1.08  DynastyLeagueFootball.com
1.09  FantasyTaz.com
1.10  Footballguys.com
1.11  JunkYardJake.com
1.12  FFToday.com

Round 1

1.01  FantasyFootballStarters – Aaron Rodgers QB GB
1.02  DraftCalc – Arian Foster RB HOU
1.03  FantasyFootballXtreme – Ray Rice RB BAL
1.04  BrunoBoys – LeSean McCoy RB PHI
1.05  FantasySharks – Calvin Johnson WR DET
1.06  FantasyFootballCalculator – Trent Richardson RB CLE
1.07  FootballDiehards – Matt Stafford QB DET
1.08  DynastyLeagueFootball – Ryan Mathews RB SD
1.09  FantasyTaz – Chris Johnson RB TEN
1.10  Footballguys – A.J. Green WR CIN
1.11  FantasyFootballXtreme (From JunkYardJake) – Cam Newton QB CAR
1.12  FFToday – Jimmy Graham TE NO

The top five aren’t surprising to me.  What is surprising is that Aaron Rodgers went number one overall.  That said, how early is too early to take the leading fantasy point producer?  I wouldn’t necessarily lead out with Rodgers myself, but I can support the move.  I do fear for what the Starters will get in the bottom of the second round in the way of running back talent.  But with Rodgers outproducing every other player on the planet, you don’t have to pair him with a top back to be competitive.

Picks 1.02 through 1.05 are fine.  Each coach will have his or her own order for them, but they are all solid picks.  1.06 is a bit of a surprise to me, but another one that I can support.  I had Richardson dialed in for my 1.08 selection, but felt it was a bit early for him even then.  My draft list was between Richardson and Ryan Mathews.  Playing in Cleveland and without a single NFL snap, it’s tough for me to go mid first round with TRich.  But being that I was considering him at 1.08, I can’t fault the move.  Diehards take Stafford at 1.07.  I’m not really on board with the pick myself but if he stays healthy for a second year, then he’s golden in my book.  Still too early for Stafford for me, but he’s young, he throws to Calvin Johnson and am I the only one that sees Detroit being a potential offensive powerhouse?

I don’t like risks in the first round.  Ryan Mathews is a relatively easy choice for me, although I considered Fitz and A.J. Green.  Being that you MUST start two backs, I felt I needed to lock up one that is sure to be a workhorse.  While I’m confident that Mathews is supposed to be a workhorse, I’m still nervous about his injury history.  His value is up in PPR and I’m happy to have him.  I also considered Chris Johnson here, but was hoping he might slip to me in the second. Nope.

1.09 FantasyTaz (Jim Day) rains on my parade and selects CJ1K.  I didn’t think he was going to slip but I did have visions of dancing in the streets if he somehow did.  I think Johnson will be back in form in 2012 and is an easy first round selection.  A.J. Green going at 1.10 to FootballGuys is no real surprise, although I think he could be over-valued in PPR.  I’m not completely sold on Andy Dalton at quarterback and I don’t think Green is a lock for 75 receptions this year.  It’s early to be taking a young receiver that may not put up WR1 numbers, but there’s no arguing his upside.  My gut feeling is screaming at me that it’s still too early for Green.

First trade of the league – Fantasy Football Xtreme gives up 3.03 and 4.10 for the rights to select Cam Newton at 1.11.  That’s a lot to give in my book and while I do believe Newton is going to have another good year, not having a third and fourth round pick is going to hurt when the time comes.  Pretty risky move but having Ray Rice, Newton and likely another young player at 2.10 should be a nice trio.  I had the opportunity for a similar trade but I’m interested mostly in standing pat to see what kind of team I can put together from the eight-hole.

Rounding out the first round at 1.12 is a selection of Jimmy Graham by FFToday.  I can’t tell whether I love the pick or hate it.  That alone tells me that it doesn’t feel wrong enough to say anything negative.  It’s awfully early to go TE1, but Graham is deserving as any have been.  However, as a tight end representing the first pick, he had better produce at a very high level.

The second and third rounds will be the most interesting to me as we see how coaches want to build their teams.  Go for the ring early or build through youth and a stronger foundation in three to four years?  I know what my strategy is this time around and I tend to use these types of leagues as playpens of sorts.  Any way you slice it, the competition here knows what they’re doing and there are no slouches.  I am really looking forward to the next 24 picks.

Round two is coming up.  A couple of interesting things to discuss ….

Round 2

2.01  FFToday – DeMarco Murray RB DAL
2.02  JunkYardJake – Matt Forte RB CHI
2.03  FootballGuys – Julio Jones WR ATL
2.04  FantasyTaz – Rob Gronkowski TE NE
2.05  DynastyLeagueFootball – Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
2.06  FootballDiehards – Adrian Peterson RB MIN
2.07  FantasyFootballCalculator – Drew Brees QB NO
2.08  FantasySharks – Dez Bryant WR DAL
2.09  BrunoBoys – Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAX
2.10  FantasyFootballXtreme – Darren McFadden RB OAK
2.11  DraftCalc – Hakeem Nicks WR NYG
2.12  FantasyFootballStarters – Wes Welker WR NE

Things are starting to get interesting now but there were only a few surprises in round two.

The selection of DeMarco Murray this early REALLY surprises me.  He is well down my list and I think he could have been had in the mid-to-late round three, maybe even round four.  Forte’, Jones and Gronk all going before my pick at 2.05 is no surprise.  What is a surprise, at least to me, is that Fitzgerald was still available at 2.05.  He’s still a first round talent in my mind, even with his quarterback situation.  With all his troubles in 2011, he was still the WR5 in scoring.  I’m pleased to have my favorite player at this point in the draft.

Diehards step up with a selection of Peterson at 2.06.  GREAT value here and I almost took him at 2.05, he was the only other player I considered.  But it’s also clear that I am higher on Peterson that most others at DLF.  Drew Brees at 2.07 is about right in my book.   Sharks take Bryant at 2.08 which is a small reach given character concerns, at least in my mind.  He’s got a world of talent and a lot of opportunity but I wouldn’t touch him in the second.  That said, the Sharks have Calvin Johnson as their WR1.  It’s a decent risk-reward play on the notion that he’ll eventually “get it”.

MJD goes at 2.09.  Backs like Peterson and MJD start their value slide when they reach 27 years of age it appears.  McFadden at 2.10 is a nice get.  Risky?  Yes.  Talented?  Yes.  Could be the steal of the draft or could rip your heart out.  Nicks drafted by Smitty at DraftCalc at 2.11 is a nice play late in the second.  Paired with Arian Foster, DraftCalc has a nice foundation forming.   Wes Welker is an intriguing pick to close out the second round.  He’s aging quickly but is a top fantasy producer.  An early choice of Welker usually signals “I want to win now”.  FantasyFootballStarters now has Rodgers and Welker.  Will they keep drafting veterans to make a serious play in 2012?  We’ll see.

Round 3

3.01  FantasyFootballStarters – Doug Martin RB TB
3.02  DraftCalc – Tom Brady QB NE
3.03  JunkYardJake (from FantasyFootballXtreme) – Robert Griffin III
3.04  BrunoBoys – Andre Johnson WR HOU
3.05  FantasySharks – Jamaal Charles RB KC
3.06  FantasyFootballCalculator – Greg Jennings WR GB
3.07  FootballDiehards – Jordy Nelson WR GB
3.08  DynastyLeagueFootball – Victor Cruz WR NYG
3.09  FantasyTaz – Brandon Marshall WR CHI
3.10  Footballguys – Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
3.11  JunkYardJake – Jeremy Maclin WR PHI
3.12  FFToday – Darren Sproles RB NO

Some interesting things developing here in round three.  Just when I thought FantasyFootballStarters was drafting for the win with a veteran strategy, Doug Martin goes at 3.01.  A bold move.  If he’s starting and doesn’t overly split time with LeGarrette Blount, it’s brilliant.  As a RB1, however, I’m not sure I’d like to carry Martin in that role.  That said, if you like Martin’s long term upside, then you can always add a veteran later.  Rookies due tend to go earlier in these start-up drafts and coaches build for the future.

Tom Brady at 3.02 is a decent pick, good value yet not too high.  JunkYardJake continues to be a thorn in my side.  Every draft has a coach that seems to be on my wave length and he is it in this draft.  I was really counting on over-drafting RGIII in the third round, maybe the fourth depending on how the draft unfolded.  As it stands, RGIII is called early in the third and the quarterback position just isn’t as important to me now.  Bruno Boys sees the draft timer expire and he ends up with Andre Johnson at 3.04.  Not a bad consolation prize.  Charles, Jennings and Nelson go in the middle of the third.  Only surprise to me is that Jennings didn’t go a bit higher but Nelson’s 2011 has taken the bloom off of Jennings to a degree and coaches are wondering if there are enough balls to go around.

I have a tough choice at 3.08.  It comes down to Victor Cruz, Roddy White and Jeremy Maclin.  Brandon Marshall is a knucklehead and I just don’t want him.  It really comes down to the aging White and Cruz.  Ultimately, I think Cruz has that “it” factor and that he can repeat his 2011 performance .  I’ll take the youth over age and established production, but it’s close.    He’s a nice complement to Fitzgerald and Mathews.

As expected, Brandon Marshall follows relatively quickly.  Demaryius Thomas goes off at 3.10, a bit of a surprise to me but seeing as how I had him targeted with a possible fourth round selection, a bit early in my mind, I applaud the early selection by FootballGuys.  JunkyardJake takes Maclin which is a solid pick.  The 29 year old Darren Sproles, who represents great veteran production at running back is the last pick of the third round.

Not a ton of surprises in round three.   Notable absentees are Marshawn Lynch (knucklehead), Kenny Britt (knucklehead) and Roddy White (I don’t get it).  The fourth round is coming up and White is still on the board.  He will be 31 in November so obviously age is a concern.  Given the offense and his targets, I think he’s fine for at least the next three seasons.

Round 4

4.01  FFToday – Mike Wallace WR PIT
4.02  JunkYardJake – Roy Helu RB WAS
4.03  FootballGuys – Jahvid Best RB DET
4.04  FantasyTaz – Percy Harvin WR MIN
4.05  DynastyLeagueFootball – Roddy White WR ATL
4.06  FootballDiehards – Steve Smith WR CAR
4.07  FantasyFootballCalculator – Miles Austin WR DAL
4.08  FantasySharks – Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
4.09  BrunoBoys – Dwayne Bowe WR KC
4.10  JunkYardJake – Jermichael Finley TE GB
4.11  DraftCalc – Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
4.12  FantasyFootballStarters – Marques Colston WR NO

The real strategy begins here and I usually really look forward to rounds four and five.  I often like to trade away late first round selections in order to stock pile extra picks in these two rounds.

Mike Wallace going at 4.01 could be considered a value selection.  I’m not a Wallace fan myself, but he is intriguing.  And due to his contract situation this year, he’s a bit of a mystery.  But he’ll no doubt be in camp shortly.  I keep waiting for Wallace to drop off yet he still keeps putting up top ten numbers.

Roy Helu at 4.02 is a curious selection and I’m not really on board with it, but I’m happy to see him go here.  I stay away from Shanahan running backs as a general rule.  Whichever back eventually does emerge in Washington will have real value.  Problem is, that value is often only for a couple of weeks before things change.

Jahvid Best at 4.03.  A beast or bust pick and one I wouldn’t make.  I think there’s a very good chance that Best’s career ends this year.  If he stays healthy, I think he can be one of those players that can put a competing team over the top.  I just wouldn’t have made that move this early.

Percy Harvin at 4.04 is a nice value and the migraine issue continues to scare off coaches.  He’s also growing more unhappy and it could be that his time is coming to an end as a Viking.  He’ll outproduce this draft position in my mind.

At 4.05, I’m still amazed that Roddy White is still on the board and the choice is easy in my mind.  I feel I’m going to be very strong at receiver with Fitzgerald, Cruz and White.  But I don’t have a second running back yet and quarterback is still a concern.  My hope was that Jonathan Stewart would continue to drop.  He wouldn’t.

The next three picks go Steve Smith (CAR), Miles Austin and Jonathan Stewart.  No real surprises here and all are solid picks here in the fourth.  Smith may have been taken a bit high, but he should post solid numbers once again in 2012.

Dwayne Bowe at 4.09 is a nice value and this could be his last year in KC.  I’d like to see him playing elsewhere in 2013 and with a more established quarterback.  Until he does, his production will be muted, but he’s still young enough to invest in.

Finley hears his name called at 4.10.  Nice value for a tight end that I think will finally put it all together in 2012.  He was on my short list for round five.  Marshawn Lynch, another player on my list for the fifth, finally is off the board.  Not sure what to think about his value but I think I like it here.  Last pick in the fourth is Marques Colston.  I’m avoiding him completely, but he still has value.

Round 5

5.01  FantasyFootball Starters – Antonio Brown WR PIT
5.02  DraftCalc – C.J. Spiller RB BUF
5.03  FantasyFootballXtreme – Stevie Johnson WR BUF
5.04  BrunoBoys – Steven Jackson RB STL
5.05  FantasySharks – Ben Tate RB HOU
5.06  DraftCalc – Kenny Britt WR TEN
5.07  FantasyDiehards – David Wilson RB NYG
5.08  DynastyLeagueFootball – Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG
5.09  FantasyTaz – Eli Manning QB NYG
5.10  FootballGuys – Fred Jackson RB BUF
5.11  FantasyFootballToday – Eric Decker WR DEN
5.12  JunkYardJake – Torrey Smith WR BAL

Rounds four, five and six are core building rounds and they often dictate who will be the top teams in the next year.

Antonio Brown, C.J. Spiller and Stevie Johnson are all good picks here in the fifth.  I’m still not high on Spiller but I’m more intrigued than I have been and there’s nothing wrong with an early selection on a player you believe in.  This is a good round to do it as, if you wait, he’ll end up on another team.

Steven Jackson is a GREAT core pick at 5.04.  I had my hopes that he’d last until my pick after missing out on a few players in the fourth.  DraftCalc goes risky again with Kenny Britt.  He’s got quite the roster of high risk high reward players.  It will only take a couple of these players to pan out for him to really have a nice roster.

David Wilson goes off at 5.07, ahead of Ahmad Bradshaw.  Bradshaw’s health issues have dropped his value to the point where the incoming rookie goes ahead of him.  Wilson has drawn rave reviews for his quickness and burst, but I’ve watched a lot of tape on him and I’m not a big fan.  Not big enough to select him ahead of Bradshaw at least.  To wit, I select Bradshaw at 5.08.  Despite his injury history, I love how he runs, he’s got a nose for the end zone and he’s great out of the backfield in the passing game.  I fully expect his touchdown total to rise.  I’d like to have less risk as my RB2 but I’m pleased to have him in the fifth.  The choice came down to Eli Manning and Bradshaw.

Sure enough, Manning exits at 5.09.  Good value for the under-appreciated passer.  The timer expires on FootballGuys again and he ends up with Fred Jackson based on ADP.  Fine by me.

At 5.11, Eric Decker lasted longer than I thought he would.  I don’t think he’s going to be WR1 for the Broncos, but his value is certainly up for 2012 due to the addition of Peyton Manning.

Torrey Smith closes out round five.

Heading into round six, I have a real choice to make.  There are still good players available that could really add to my core,  but I also don’t yet have a quarterback or a tight end.  The big names are off the board in that area so I have to really get down to business for my next three picks.  I have a plan, but I’m doing a bit more research before committing to it.

Round 6

6.01  FFToday – Aaron Hernandez TE NE
6.02  JunkYardJake – Shonn Greene RB NYJ
6.03  FootballGuys – Vernon Davis TE SF
6.04  FantasyTaz – Mark Ingram, RB NO
6.05  DynastyLeagueFootball – Matt Ryan QB ATL
6.06  FootballDiehards – Vincent Jackson WR TB
6.07  FantasyFootballCalculator – Andrew Luck QB IND
6.08  FantasySharks – Michael Vick QB PHI
6.09  BrunoBoys – Jason Witten TE DAL
6.10  FantasyFootballXtreme – DeSean Jackson WR PHI
6.11  FantasyFootballCalculator – Reggie Bush RB MIA
6.12  FantasyFootballStarters – Isaac Redman RB PIT

Round six was a good round in general with few surprises.  Aaron Hernandez at 6.01 is a nice get and he fell further than I expected.  I kept trying to find a way to grab him but couldn’t make it happen and I still am not confident that both New England tight ends are going to perform as they did in 2011.  I’m glad to see Shonn Greene go off the board early in the sixth.  I want nothing to do with him and I think it’s far too early for him to be drafted.  I was considering Mark Ingram at 6.05 myself but really didn’t want to have to step up.  I don’t want to take a running back simply because I want a third back.  I’m really focusing on adding quality players fully understanding that I can always acquire an older back later for depth or acquire a younger back in trade.  Or, simply just take some shots late on depth chart backs and wait for an injury.  I don’t feel pressured to add another back behind Mathews and Bradshaw at this juncture.  At least not before filling out my core.

Naturally, Ingram goes ahead of me at 6.04.  I’m not disappointed.  My goal was to end up with at least a top eight quarterback and I think Ryan is that guy.  He’s improved each year and while I don’t expect him to make it into the top four, I think he can be a top six back.  He’s durable, has great receivers and I’m hoping this is the year that he puts it all together.  Either way, it takes a lot of pressure off to have filled that role.  Now I only need a tight end and I’m hoping one of two that I have my eye on continue to fall.

Andrew Luck at 6.07 is a good pick.  I had considered him instead of Ryan but felt the need to secure my near-term starter first.  Luck is going to be a great player in the NFL.  That’s as much of an absolute statement that you’re going to get from me.

Rest of the picks are about as expected with the exception of Isaac Redman at 6.12.  A bit early for Redman but this is on the heels of the news that Pittsburgh is willing to let Rashard Mendenhall walk in 2013.  Redman isn’t flashy but he can get the job done.  He runs as hard as Mendy does and has softer hands.  I think Redman is a sneaky play in 2012 but I like him more in round eight or later.

Round 7

7.01  FantasyFootball Starters – Peyton Hillis RB KC
7.02  FantasyFootballCalculator – Denarius Moore WR OAK
7.03  FantasyFootballXtreme – Brandon Lloyd WR NE
7.04  BrunoBoys – Philip Rivers QB SD
7.05  FantasySharks – Justin Blackmon WR JAX
7.06  FantasyFootballCalculator – Brandon Pettigrew TE DET
7.07  FantasyDiehards – Randall Cobb WR GB
7.08  DynastyLeagueFootball – Michael Crabtree WR SF
7.09  FantasyTaz – Ryan Williams RB ARI
7.10  FootballGuys – Peyton Manning QB DEN
7.11  JunkYardJake – Robert Meachem WR SD
7.12  FFToday – Tony Romo QB DAL

Things begin to unwind for me here in the seventh.  I have two selections that I’m trying to decide between:  1)  Justin Blackmon and 2) Brandon Pettigrew.  I’m really wanting to finish off my core so that I can start value-selecting in round eight.  By round eight or nine, I like to start taking a few educated chances, even if it means drafting a player or two well before they should be drafted.  I’m willing to take that risk after I’m comfortable that I have a starting lineup that I’m happy with.  As it happens, both players are taken just before my selection.  Pettigrew was going to finish my core but Blackmon I thought represented a nice value.

Pick 7.03, Brandon Lloyd, is a nice selection that I think could well outplay his slot.  Lloyd isn’t “sexy” but he sure could be in New England.  I have my eye on Ryan Williams in round eight or nine but he is selected directly after I select Michael Crabtree at 7.08.  I cuss out loud when I see Williams’ name show up in my email.  Either way, I’m pleased to see Crabtree fall and I think he represents a nice value with upside here in the seventh.  It gives me a quality WR4 with upside.

I was curious where Peyton Manning would fall.  I had a plan in mind where I would take him shortly after taking Ryan as my secondary quarterback, but I don’t have to worry about that now.

I have a feeling round eight is going to be a real nightmare.  I can feel it.  I still don’t have a RB3 nor a tight end.  There is one remaining tight end that I really like that I believe most are missing out on.  I’ll likely have to step up and select him even though there are other options I like remaining on the board.

Round 8

8.01  JunkYardJake – Donald Brown RB IND
8.02  FFToday – James Starks RB GB
8.03  FootballGuys – Ronnie Hillman RB DEN
8.04  FantasyTaz – Beanie Wells RB ARI
8.05  DynastyLeagueFootball – Fred Davis TE WAS
8.06  FootballDiehards – Antonio Gates TE SD
8.07  FantasyFootballCalculators – DeAngelo Williams RB CAR
8.08  FantasySharksMikel Leshoure RB DET
8.09  BrunoBoys -Michael Floyd WR ARI
8.10  FantasyFootballXtreme – Pierre Garcon WR WAS
8.11  FootballGuys – Frank Gore RB SF
8.12  FantasyFootballStarters – Greg Little WR CLE

Yep, a nightmare of massive proportions.  Still needing a third running back at the close of the seventh round, I had finally set on a plan to acquire that back.  In order, I wanted 1) James Starks 2) Ronnie Hillman and 3) Donald Brown.  They represented the next tier and picking fifth in the round, I was sure I’d land one of them.  As it stands, they all went with the first three picks.  Best laid plans and all.  FantasyTaz took Beanie Wells at 8.04.  Wells is one of the backs that was completely off my radar.  And I mean completely.

At 8.05, I use the pick to round out my core and complete my starters for the most part.  Fred Davis is flying under the radar.  Mostly because he’s this-side of being a knucklehead.  Most coaches don’t realize that if not for the four game suspension he served in 2011, he would have been the TE3 overall if he scored his average points to close out the season.  He’s still young and I suspect that RGIII will find him early and often as he rolls out of the pocket and draws the safety.  Davis was my ace in the hole at the position and I didn’t want to risk losing him with the final tight end run set to occur any round now.

Don’t have much to say about the other picks.  All look pretty good and the eolder veteran backs are starting to roll off the board.  DeAngelo Williams and Frank Gore go this round.  This leaves other such backs as Willis McGahee, Michael Turner and even Pierre Thomas still looking for a home.  I have my eye on one of them but have another plan as an “out” before going the veteran route.

As it stands, round eight was worse than expected and while I’m pleased to have Davis to round out my starters, I had hoped to delay things another round before going to the well.

This is also the point where I like to start trading away picks for 2013 first rounders to teams that believe they have a chance to win it in 2012.  Most coaches tend to over-estimate the strength of their team and are often eager to deal what they believe is a low draft pick for a chance to secure a ninth or tenth round player here.  We’ll see.   Thus far, I’ve been able to fend off multiple offers, one of which being the acquisition of a ninth, tenth and eleventh round selection for my eighth round selection.  If I had landed my RB3, I would have taken it without much thought.

Now with my core in place and being relatively young, I can begin over-drafting those players that I believe are worthy.  This doesn’t mean that I won’t take the value player that falls further than he should, but I’d rather take greater risk now with the full expectation that 33% of them only pan out.  Go big or go home.  With a small roster size (24) like we are playing, I want players that blow up or bust very quickly.  You don’t want players that take up valuable space only to be professionally mediocre and not startable.  That’s the death of many dynasty teams.

Round 9

9.01  DraftCalc – Isaiah Pead RB STL
9.02  FootballGuys – Sidney Rice WR SEA
9.03  FantasyFootballXtreme – BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB CIN
9.04  BrunoBoys – Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
9.05  FantasySharks – Coby Fleener TE IND
9.06  FantasyFootballCalculator -Stephen Hill WR NYJ
9.07  FantasyDiehards – Kendall Hunter RB SF
9.08  DynastyLeagueFootball – Stevan Ridley RB NE
9.09  FantasyTaz – Darrius Heyward-Bey WR OAK
9.10  FootballGuys – Reggie Wayne WR IND
9.11  JunkYardJake – Brian Quick WR STL
9.12  FFToday – Titus Young WR DET

Rounds eight through twelve are extremely important in dynasty building.  I actually like to extend that through fourteen as being a determinant for longer term success of the team.  At this point in the draft, it becomes clear who has done their homework and who is taking blind stabs at players.  A good coach that understands talent evaluation and depth chart mechanics can work magic in these rounds while other coaches end up needing to fill holes with older players.  My goal is always to build a solid core group through rounds seven or eight and then be able to go young between rounds eight and fourteen, give or take a round.  The more rounds you have to use to secure your starters, the less chance you have at adding those young players that can secure your near-term future.

I’m still playing catch-up here in round nine, more than I want to.  I’d like to be one player deeper at running back than I am which would afford me taking a few risks at receiver.  Instead, I’m looking at running back and going to try and make an educated choice that also has some upside.

Isaiah Pead goes at 9.01.  Too early for my liking and I’m in the minority in that I don’t see Pead developing into Jackson’s heir apparent.  But he’s the type of player that you can take a chance on if you’ve done a good job of building your core leading up to this point.  Roethlisberger at 9.04 is a good value.  He’s flirted with QB1 numbers in the past but is best in a QB2 role.  Fleener at 9.05 is about what I expected but still two rounds too early in my estimation given the names still on the board.   Stephen Hill at 9.06 is the type of player I really like to step up to in round nine and I was hoping he’d last until round ten.  I’m not sure what to think about Kendall Hunter these days with Gore and LaMichael James really gumming things up.  I’ll let someone else take that risk.

I take Stevan Ridley at 9.08.  With Green-Ellis out of the picture, Ridley is certain to get extra work.  How much extra work is anyone’s guess but I like his chances to see meaningful touches.  Either way, he’s young and I only need RB4 numbers from him as I expect to go with one of the productive veterans in round ten to secure my running backs.

At 9.10, Reggie Wayne is a great addition.  The round finishes with Brian Quick and Kevin Smith.  Smith has a real opportunity if he can stay healthy, but I’ve been saying that for many years.  At what point do we as fantasy coaches finally accept what a player is?

Round 10

10.01  JunkYardJake – Kendall Wright WR TEN
10.02  FFToday – Kevin Smith RB DET
10.03  FootballGuys – Matt Schaub QB HOU
10.04  FantasyTaz – Jay Cutler QB CHI
10.05  DynastyLeagueFootball – Michael Turner RB ATL
10.06  FootballDiehards – Jared Cook TE TEN
10.07  FantasyFootballCalculators – Doug Baldwin WR SEA
10.08  FantasySharks – Josh Gordon WR CLE
10.09  BrunoBoys – Lance Moore WR NO
10.10  FantasyFootballXtreme – Mike Williams WR TB
10.11  FantasyFootballStarters – LeGarrette Blount RB TB
10.12  FantasyFootballStarters – Jacquizz Rodgers RB ATL

Kendall Wright is the first to go in round ten, he was on my short list should one of the veteran running backs not fall to me at 10.05.  Kevin Smith at 10.02 is a risk-reward pick and I like it.  If (big “if”) Smith can stay healthy, I think he’s got a great chance to put up good numbers in 2012.  That said, “healthy” and Kevin Smith shouldn’t exist in the same paragraph together, let alone the same sentence.

My biggest need is at running back but I’m also feeling the need to add my second quarterback.  Matt Schaub wasn’t on my list but Jay Cutler was and they go back-to-back before my selection.  I think Cutler is a very heady selection and he’s is underrated in fantasy.  I’m pleased to see Michael Turner fall to me in the tenth round.  Of the veterans, he’s sure to get a lot of work and while the Falcons don’t expect him to get 300 touches in 2012, that should still put him at or above 1,000 yards, with perhaps eight touchdowns.  I think he’ll be great as my RB3 for a year or two.  This selection takes the pressure off.

I like the pick of Doug Baldwin at 10.07.  Another underrated young receiver on a team needing play makers.  He could be a great value selection.  When I was on the clock at 10.05, I nearly selected Josh Gordon.  I, instead, decided to test the waters a bit to see if he would last until my selection in the eleventh.  He didn’t.  I think the tenth round is over-drafting him and I doubt I’m comfortable drafting him any earlier.

What a difference a year makes.  Tampa’s Mike Williams is selected at 10.10, a huge fall from preseason last year.  I think he’s a good bet to have a decent year and I’m a bit surprised he lasted this long.  I’m happy to see Blount go off the board, I don’t want anything to do with him.  Jacquizz Rodgers was a player I was hoping would fall another couple of rounds as I would have liked to have paired him with Michael Turner.  Not excited about his prospects but I think he could be a viable RB4 with upside.

The DLF team is (I have updated it with my selection in the eleventh round):

QB:  Matt Ryan (6)
RB:  Ryan Mathews (1), Ahmad Bradshaw (5), Stevan Ridley (9), Michael Turner (10)
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (2), Victor Cruz (3), Roddy White (4), Michael Crabtree (7), Alshon Jeffery (11)
TE:  Fred Davis (8)

This will be my final update for this particular draft.  I hope you have found it useful and that you can use it to gauge the approximate value of players.

Jeff Haverlack
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seth
9 years ago

I grabbed AJG at 1.11 in a recent startup (non-ppr). 4 QBs were off the board by then, with a fifth going at 1.12.

seth
9 years ago

1st round of startup (2rb, 3wr) went as follows
Rodgers
Calvin
McCoy
Newton
Foster
Rice
Richardson
Stafford
Mathews
Brady

And I took Green at 1.11.

Drew Swanson
9 years ago

“Fantasy Football Xtreme gives up 3.03 and 4.10 for the rights to select Cam Newton at 1.11.”

You have DraftCalc drafing Cam in round 1.

Jeff
Reply to  Drew Swanson
9 years ago

Looks like a typo by the author:
1.11 11. Fantasy Football Xtreme – Newton, Cam CAR QB

see draftcalc’s website:
http://draftcalc.com/fantasy-football-content/mock-drafts/live-2012-fantasy-football-draft-dynasty-expert-ppr/

Chris R.
9 years ago

Maybe it’s just me but taking Welker in the 2nd round is really really early. I don’t know how his team will play out, but me personally when I do start-ups I don’t take a WR1 that in 1 year I’ll be furiously trying to replace the production that he had. That’s why I can’t fault the AJ Green selection much because whatever you get the arrow is pointing straight up.

Welker is just terrible value IMO. There are going to be a handful of WR’s going later that have the same potential to explode as him with youth on their side.

And being that he hasn’t taken a RB yet, he’s going to be behind the curve in trying to chase some of the young WR’s and a RB.

RobertBobson
Reply to  Chris R.
9 years ago

I think you should review Welker’s PPR production from last season, if you think there are a handful of WR’s that have the same potential as Welker to explode. He outscored Calvin through week 16 in my ppr league. I do agree that his age and contract situation are concerns, and would make me slot him lower than 2.12, but I don’t think there’s single WR after him has anywhere close to the odds of having a super stud receiving season next year.

Josh Gans
Reply to  RobertBobson
9 years ago

Wait..so you are saying its Calvin and Welker and NO ONE ELSE has a chance to be a super stud (PPR or otherwise) for WRs next year?

Just to be sure, Ill assume 1100+ yards, maybe 75 rec and 8+ tds is a super stud/WR1? Or is the baseline higher? 10 tds? Welker had 9.

Regardless, if we use those stats to define a premiere WR, that would give us Calvin and Welker and several others who either fit or are maybe off by maybe 1 td or less than 50 yards or so, such as Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Jordy Nelson, Nicks, Wallace, V-Jax..and if you add in TEs, you have Gronk and Graham. Then you have other potential players who either improved their situation like Brandon Marshall or simply now have more experience AJ Green and Julio Jones, and other wildcard candidates who may post those numbers like A. Johnson, Bowe, Harvin, Maclin, Jennings, Dez Bryant..and so on.

Granted, a few of those names I certainly dont expect to post those numbers (Maclin, Steve Smith, Harvin..etc)..but there are a handful I certainly would be surprised if they DON’T meet or exceed those numbers (injuries to player or starting QB notwithstanding).

Robertbobson
Reply to  Josh Gans
9 years ago

You obviously did not understand what I wrote. First, I didn’t say NO ONE HAS A CHANCE. I said ” but I don’t think there’s single WR after him (meaning drafted after him) has anywhere close to the odds of having a super stud receiving season next year. have an elite season as welker. ”

OF the players you bring up, Gronk and Graham aren’t WR’s, and are therefore irrelevant. Even if they were relevant, they were drafted ahead of welker, and are therefore double irrelevant. Fitz, Nicks, Green and juilo were taken ahead of welker, and are therefore irrelevant. However, I would argue that Welker is a much safer bet for an having 18+ PPG next season than either Julio or Green, but obviously they have more dynasty value due to their age. He’s probably a safer bet than Nicks and Fitz too, but I would say “Marginally” safer, rather than “much” safer.

So, strictly for next season, I think welker is, by far, the safest bet to have an elite (18+ ppg) season. I’m not saying NO ONE ELSE has a chance to do it. That would be idiotic. Of course other players are likely to do it. What I am saying is, Welker is an extremely safe bet.

The only year Welker put up less than 110 receptions and 1150 yards in New England was the year he was coming off a knee injury. Last year he put up 122 and 1569. It was cute that you bring up the td total (9) being below your baseline of super stud (10), but you utterly ignored the reason he was a super stud last year. If he had zero td’s last year, he still would have been the third highest scoring WR in my ppr league. Yes, his yards are likely to regres, and his catcher are likely to regress some also. The question is, how much will they regress? What has changed about the New England situation that should lead me to believe his numbers are going to take a significant down turn? Baring injury, I see no reason why that number is going to drop significantly. It’s the same offense, same team, same QB, he’s not (that) old, he’s not hurt.

There are reasons to have him ranked below some of the players that got drafted behind him in this draft. His age is one. His contract situation is another. Who knows how he’d produce in another system and with a different qb. I also think he takes bigger hits than players like Calvin or Fitz take (though I have no stats to back that up with), so he feels like a bigger injury risk. But his is a PPR monster, and there’s no better WR to take (at this point in this draft) if you’re an owner in win now mode.

Robertbobson
Reply to  Robertbobson
9 years ago

grr I wish I could have edited that, I messed up quoting myself LOL

I meant to quote ” I don’t think there’s single WR after him (meaning, that was drafted after him) that has anywhere close to the odds of having a super stud receiving season next year. ”

I should probably proof read what I put in these commets better, since I can’t correct them later.

Josh Gans
Reply to  Robertbobson
9 years ago

Given the way you wrote your entry, discussing Megatron and Welker only by name, it therefore can be read as though you only expect those 2 to be super studs and no one else to approach that. That is not your intention so apologies if *I* misconstrued your comments…no need to jump all over my back though.

Josh Gans
Reply to  Robertbobson
9 years ago

Also I said 8 tds, then I said 10 tds for the stud WR..then pointed out Welker had 9 to simply show where he is..whether its 1 above or 1 below..all essentially the same to me. Not to point out he is a less than worthy wr. You from Boston or just ride his jock or something? Cripes.

Robertbobson
Reply to  Robertbobson
9 years ago

I wasn’t “Jumping on your back”. I was clarifying my position. and no, I’m not “from boston”. I just think he is absurdly underrated for his level of production, and I’ve never heard a good reason why. I’m “on his jock” because of 122/1569.

SJ
9 years ago

Really great article.. the format is much like my leagues so I’ll be interested to see how this draft pans out

RobertBobson
9 years ago

I really like the Fitz pick, and I’m kinda shocked that he’s around at 2.05. I have a ppr league (4 point passing td) coming up, and I have the 12th pick and i’ve been banging my head trying to come up with a draft strategy. If Fitz is still there, it would make my life much easier.

robertdhenley
9 years ago

i dont think mathews is a workhorse, think he dis going to disappoint a lot of people this year, dez bryant at 2.8 was a horrible pick, great value on fitz though

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

A Norv Turner RB1 has led the NFL in touches in 6 out of the last 20 years. If healthy Matthews will be a workhorse and is an extremely solid RB1 choice.

DP
Reply to  robertdhenley
9 years ago

I disagree Robert. I think you’ll be in for a shock for how MUCH of a workhorse Mathews actually is. I lived in Fresno while he played at Fresno State, it wasn’t until his 3rd season that he absolutely exploded with dominance. He has a long learning curve, and once he reaches his potential, he’s unstoppable. I think this year will be the year he reaches his potential at the NFL level and shows everyone why SD drafted him in the 1st round.

robertdhenley
Reply to  DP
9 years ago

i actually live 30 miles south of fresno, and watched him in college, he is overrated

Wertz
Reply to  robertdhenley
9 years ago

Your dead wrong on both takes.

Tattoo
9 years ago

This is nitpicky but I would appreciate a response, a comment on it. I have always had an issue with fantasy serpentine drafts. I have never participated in a league with a draft like that. It has always been worst to first and every one of my picks is only 12 picks apart. The point I want to make is when Jeff commented on the DeMarco Murray pick, he stated that it was way to early for Murray at that spot and he thought Murray could have been had in the mid-to-late 3rd round (or possibly the 4th). HOWEVER, if FFToday REALLY wanted Murray, there is a very good chance he may not have been around in the mid-to-late 3rd so it was important for FFToday to take Murray that early. And thereby, distorting Murray’s true ADP, which is another concept I have trouble with. I understand the deal with value but I also am quite well aware of the old computer programming phrase “GIGO” which stands for “Garbage In, Garbage Out”. If a player’s value is distorted by the vagaries of a serpentine draft, is his ADP really a true representation of his actual “value”. And if I really want a player, I am going to draft him to make sure I get him, VBD be damned!

Am I “all wet”? Comments?? Thanks!

Admin
Reply to  Tattoo
9 years ago

A couple of thoughts…First, ADP is an ‘average’ of drafts, and good ADP is an average of a LOT of drafts. That means it will be a true representation of a player’s value because of the amount of times he’s drafted. Assuming players aren’t actually using ADP to pick their players for them & therefore reinforcing the ADP, this will balance out to find the player’s perceived value. I prefer to see an ADP that also shows the high and low spot the player was drafted & the number of drafts it’s averaging.

Second, I believe what Jeff was saying about it being early is that any team has an opportunity to move into a range where they think they can select a certain player. In this case, FFToday could have attempted to trade down a little bit, maximizing value, and still selected Murray in an ‘average’ draft.

Overall, you make a good point though…if you want a player, go get him. ADP is only a tool used to let you know where most draft, not a cheatsheet. Use it wisely.

Tattoo
Reply to  Eric Dickens
9 years ago

Thanks for the response. However, I would still contend that in using a serpentine draft, ADP is still distorted. My “rant” there was about using serpentine drafts. I still don’t understand why it is used. Even with the averaging that is inherent in an ADP, if a team drafting at the end of round 1/beginning of round 2 likes a player, they will have to draft him at 1.12 (#12) or 2.01 (#13) if they are almost certain he won’t be there at 3.12 (#36) or 4.01 (#37) when his “true” value may more realistically be say 3.05 (#29). So, that player’s ADP is inflated to somewhere around #15 or #16 (given an averaging of teams in the back-half of round 1, early round 2 drafting the player) simply because the type of draft that is used. No matter how many data points go into the averaging, the problem inherent with a serpentine draft distorts a player’s ADP. If I am able to draft a player every 12 picks, depending on league size of course, then I will have a truer understanding of a player’s true ADP. He will be selected “at a more reasonable spot” relative to what his perceived value really is. Thanks again for the comments!

Admin
Reply to  Tattoo
9 years ago

Yes, but that’s assuming that trading isn’t a part of serpentine drafts. If there’s a guy I want that is typically going off the board around 20 picks later than me, then I’ll make a trade down to get value & then take the guy, say 15 picks later. Because of that, it gives a more accurate average of the player’s draft position.

In general, a serpentine draft is to offset inequity & create parity. Without it, the earlier you pick in the round, the stronger your team should be thearetically. Also, a straight draft (1-12, 1-12, 1-12, etc) would still distort ADP in the same manner as you mentioned for serpentine drafts.

Robert Scibetta
Reply to  Eric Dickens
9 years ago

IMO, Tattoo’s argument fails because this is a start-up draft. Last-to-first is designed to give struggling teams first access to incoming talent, like the NFL.

As per Eric’s argument, having to pick last is a HUGE disadvantage. Consectutive picks at the end of the round are necessary to restore equity, but they can never compensate for having to start with fantasy’s 12th best player.

In a vacumm, there IS a correlation between early picks and higher finishes. This is why (again, IMO) veteran ffballers typically gravitate to auction drafts, where all owners have access to all players.

While I completely agree that having to wait two full rounds after your 2.01 pick forces you to make choices about picking a guy earlier than “average”, at least you have the choice to pick the guy. Besides, It’s nuts to think it’s more fair that the #12 pick should start his team with the #12 and #24 overall picks.

As for ADP being “skewed” by the draft format. I also disagree; ADP is ADP. If Demarco Murray is being picked at ADP20, you can figure he’s going in the late 2nd, regardless of the direction the draft is flowing.

Robertbobson
9 years ago

I hate the way that MFL does the ADP though. First of all, they make no distinction at all between rookie drafts and start up drafts, in their rankings, so rookies get hopelessly skewed. Second, they don’t have a true “Dynasty” category. They have a Redraft, and a keeper category. I’ve looked at some random drafts before, and some they have in the Redraft category are clearly dynasties. And who knows how many keeper leagues are actually dynasty leagues. It infuriates me that MFL can’t have a dynasty category, particularly considering how many of their leagues are dynasty. I wouldn’t think it would be that difficult of a thing to program, either.

Admin
Reply to  Robertbobson
9 years ago

Robert, I agree it would be nice to have more drilled-down info. We have a pretty good relationship with MFL, so I’ll pass that along when I talk to them next.

Dan
9 years ago

Not sure i liked the move of one year wonder in cruz over the knuckle head proven Marshall. I know he is an idiot but he can play and will be a beast with cutler who seems like he can help control marshall a bit.

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  Dan
9 years ago

May be, but I heard last year before the season that Marshall “was going to be” a beast as the centerpiece of that offense. The problem is that you can’t use absolute terms like “will be” in fantasy. It’s just a guess and I don’t like to guess on receivers that didn’t show much the year before. And there’s nothing guaranteed about the Bears offense other than Forte’ needed to be paid. I do like Marshall being reunited with Cutler, but I’ll let someone else take the risk with Marshall.

DP
9 years ago

Go dynastyleaguefootball.com! This is pretty cool. I’ll be rooting for ya! This is the only dynasty site I use, and I bought your guide last year for my first-ever start-up dynasty league with IDP. Needless to say, I not only won the championship, but I dominated the year with a 12-2 record, and scored the most points overall.

Love this website. Thanks for all your hardwork, great articles, and awesome rankings 🙂

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  DP
9 years ago

Awesome job at winning your league … that is VERY cool! And thanks for supporting us here at DLF!

DCR
9 years ago

What are your thoughts on RG3 going early in round 3 (ahead of Eli, Romo, Matty Ice) and Luck still being on the board nearly a full round later?

Ken Dogson
Reply to  DCR
9 years ago

I suspect that Luck will be the better NFL QB. But with respect to FF, Griffin may outperform him.

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  DCR
9 years ago

I think RGIII went too early …. because I couldn’t get him in the next round. ;o)

It’s a big risk obviously but not guts and glory and I have no problem with coaches leading out with a bold strategy. After all, if you don’t draft a player early enough, then you may not get him.

Yes, it was early but if he had waited, I was going to take him shortly after his pick. I’m high on RGIII myself as a fantasy quarterback. Love his attitude, his work ethic and his desire to be great … yet stay reasonably humble. I just wish he didn’t go to the Skins. I’m struggling with getting his fat head … or maybe trying to become a skins fan.

Alan Bauerle
Reply to  DCR
9 years ago

I love how Osi Umenyora calls Griffin “Bob Griffin” and says he hasn’t played a single snap ang gets a nickname. I agree you have to earn your stripes. How many college players were studs in college then coke to the NFL n suck. Not saying he’s gonna be terrible but let’s wait n see what he does b4 we annoint him the chosen one

Alan Bauerle
Reply to  Alan Bauerle
9 years ago

*Come to NFL* dam sausage fingers

Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

Okay, maybe someone could sit me down like Danny Tanner and explain to me why Percy Harvin is still on the board.

87 catches, 1309 total yards and 8 tds. He just turned 24.

I find it simply baffling that he hasn’t been taken, and guys like Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, Jeremy Maclin and Hakeem Nicks have been.

Will Jordy Nelson ever really score 15 tds again? His numbers were grossly inflated by his last two regular season games. Prior to week 16, he posted less than a 1000 yards. He is a good guy to have, but not in round 3 of a dynasty start up. Those with realistic expectations should assume his numbers to come back to Earth a bit.

Demaryius Thomas. If you want to take a guy whose success is contingent upon the health of a 36 year old qb coming off neck fusion surgery, more power to you. Is the over/under for this guy’s numbers higher than 1300 total yards? I’ll take that under all year.

Jeremy Maclin has never had a 1000 yard campaign. Grossly overrated IMO.

Hakeem Nicks has a ton of talent, and potential. Someone call me when he reaches that elusive 1200 yard mark, or can actually suit up for an entire season.

The argument against Harvin is that he has migraine headaches? He has missed a total of 2 games in the last few years. To put up those kind of numbers with mediocre qb play and with AP being injured for some of that time, is no less than astounding. I get that a lot of fantasy gurus weren’t sold on Harvin coming out of Florida, but it is time to start admitting that you were wrong. Harvin is a rock solid wr1, especially in return yardage leagues (wr4 in my league last year).

Alan Bauerle
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

Nicks only missed the mark by 8 yards. Yes his duribility is a concern but he’s a super stud w/o the migranes. Expect a call from me next off season… Lol. U r right about Harvin though. Get that guy a playmaker n he’ll put up way bigger numbers!

Robertbobson
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

I totally agree about Harvin, I think he’s second round pick worthy in a PPR. I’d take him over Dez and Welker, without question.

StevieMo
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

My response to Harvin is along the lines of what you wrote about the other receivers. He’s injury (migraine) prone, often missing games with little or no notice, he plays on an offense with an average QB (at best), and not a particularly prolific offense at that. He’s a great talent but too inconsistent for my tastes. Big game, little game, does-not-play game. I guess others agree since his draft stock has dropped.

Robert Scibetta
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

DITTO about Percy. Plus the guy runs the ball several times a game (last I heard, rushes are touches, too), AND he returns kicks-in case your league double dips! PAAARCY!

Jordy? Agreed on all counts, but the guy’s a BALLER!

I’d LOVE me some Demaryius. The guy’ll be a beast with TOM THUMB at QB lol!

Gotta disagree with you big-time about Maclin.

and concerning NICKS? Dude, YOU DESERVE TO DIE!

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Robert Scibetta
9 years ago

I still like Nicks. I still like Maclin. I would put Harvin over both of them.

@Steve

He is not injury prone. He has missed 3 games in 3 games in his 3 years in the NFL.

14.3 at Chargers
14.5 vs Buccaneers
13.7 vs Lions
16.9 at Chiefs
3.3 vs Cardinals 17.2 at Bears
6.5 vs Packers
15.4 at Panthers
13.0 at Packers
22.0 vs Raiders
28.8 at Falcons
40.5 vs Broncos
28.8 at Lions
4.8 vs Saints
23.3 at Redskins
29.8 vs Bears

You are right, he did have 3 bad games.

Those numbers were still good for the WR4 in my league.

Not sure what you mean by “big game, little game”

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

you guys gotta add an edit button 🙂

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

Looking over old posts. I was, for the most part, Nostradamus right here. I was wrong about Demaryius, but I’ll still take it.

David Friday
9 years ago

I agree with Dan above. Cruz is simply not that talented, so over the next several years this will show up. There is always a chance he could match last year’s production, but I just can’t see it – his TD’s will definitely drop. I think the most likely outcome for Cruz is in the 65-75% range of what he did last year. Marshall is a knucklehead for sure, but last year he played with a bottom feeding QB in a TERRIBLE offense. Now he is back with Cutler and there is no denying his amazing talent level.

ccj
Reply to  David Friday
9 years ago

Cruz crushed in 2010 preseason and then was side lined with injury. Cruz crushed in 2011 regular season.

Teams tried to take him away in the playoffs and he went for:
21 – 269 – 1, extrapolate that out to 16 games and you’ve got 84 – 1076 – 4. I think that’s a safe “floor” for him.

Meanwhile all that attention freed up Nicks to the tune of:
28 – 444 – 4, x4 = 112 – 1776 – 16 … yeah, I think teams will be paying more attention to Nicks and Cruz probably splits the difference from his playoff numbers and his regular season totals from last year ~83 – 1230 – 6.5. <- bank on it.

Alan Bauerle
Reply to  David Friday
9 years ago

How can u say Cruz is not that talented. The guy makes incredible catches and is one of the reasons the Giants won the SB!!!! He makes circus catches on Sundays. He runs a very good route tree. Yes it was only 1 year but he broke the Giants record for yards recieving. Obviously Jerry Reece n company see something in him. Time after time last season he made plays to keep drives alive. I think you are undervalueing him and his abilities. He’s just going to keep doing his thing as long as defences key up on Nicks. You couldn’t just put another unknown in there n watch him grab 1500 yards and 9 tds. Victor Cruz is special and if you can’t see that then go back n watch his highlight reel on YouTube.

David Friday
Reply to  Alan Bauerle
9 years ago

That’s what makes FF so much fun. You’re opinion is certainly shared by a majority of people that believe Cruz is a top 10 talent. I just don’t share that opinion. I’m not saying he will be terrible, I’m saying he will not be a top 10 WR this and likely will fall into the 15-25 WR range, thus not worth a 2nd/3rd round pick. I think the Giants will try to run the ball more this year as well as get their RB’s more involved in the passing game.

By the way, I would never draw a conclusion about a player based on a YouTube highlight reel.

Alan Bauerle
Reply to  David Friday
9 years ago

As long as teams double team Nicks Cruz will continue to put up top 10 fantasy numbers. 1200 yards and 8 tds per year are not impossible numbers for Cruz. The guys a stud and will be for a long time. I’m not basing fantasy production on YouTube videos. I’m saying he has talent based on how he makes these impossible catches. Steve Smith put up over 100 receptions with the Giants. It’s all on Eli. Do you think Eli is not breaking out? If he gets better than so do his recievers. You think Cruz isn’t a top 10 talent.. As of right now he is. So it’s his ranking to lose he’s already there. It’s funny no matter what is really going on Giants players get no respect. I’m sure somebody else in your league is already reaping the bounty of Cruz skill set.

Steve
9 years ago

I dont think Fitz at 2:05 was late. The fact is that QB situation is a mess and there’s no other proven offensive talent to divert the defensive attention away from him. As a result, he’s just not enough of a difference-maker for me to get excited about drafting him. Where you took him was about right.

RobertBobson
9 years ago

Looking ahead in the draft, I see the 5.11 pick is Eric Decker. Which is fine. But then, FFtoday made this comment…

“Playing the Marvin Harrison role in the Broncos’ new offense, I actually like Decker to be a better keeper than Demaryius Thomas b/c he can stay healthy. ”

I wish I had psychic powers that allowed me to see into the future and know that players are going to avoid injury. I never would have drafted brady in the first round in 2008.

Coleman Kelly
Reply to  RobertBobson
9 years ago

That’s not the first time I’ve heard that. According to Mike Clay from ProFootballFocus, Decker aDOT was actually higher than Thomas’. That means Decker was actually the deep threat last year. I believe it was Evan Silva who talked about Demaryius Thomas running more short and intermediate routes in 2011. It’ll be interesting to see if they’re right.

9 years ago

Hello everyone,

I just wanted to drop by and say great article, and great draft so far! Hey Jeff, I’ll give you:

Lynch and Nicks
for
Mathews

Great commentary so far, everyone!

Robertbobson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

What did you think of that trade, Jeff. Alone, I thought Nicks + Lynch was a little steep, since I think Nicks and Julio have comparable values. But he also traded the 8.11 and 9.02. That seems like a whole lot to me.

Reply to  Robertbobson
9 years ago

Yeah, I’m much higher on Jones than I am on Nicks, which explains why I gave up a ton. Nicks has elite talent, but I question his ability to stay on the field, and even though he has played hurt week in and week out, I think it will end up adding up. Jones is a top 3-4 fantasy WR of the future in my eyes, and I think we see him look like that by mid-season (if not sooner). I have only Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green ahead of Jones for the long-term, and only Dez Bryant is really competing for that third-ranked spot along side of Jones (in my eyes).

Time will tell!

Again, great commentary so far, differing opinions is why this game is so fun and why there are so many fantasy sites out there like DLF and DraftCalc!

Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

No worries, my friend. You know that more trade offers are to come! For those that don’t know, I trade A LOT 🙂 Jeff can verify this.

I know it was a lot to give up, but as I write on another comment below, I have Jones as my 3rd-ranked dynasty receiver, only behind Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green. Dez Bryant is in the convo for that third spot, but Jones has ownership of it. I think this physical freak is going to dominate for years and years to come, and he and AJ Green will eventually be 1 and 2 (but Calvin is in that top 3 for a handful more years, no question).

Coleman Kelly
9 years ago

Best and Tate were selected way early in my opinion. Why spend a 4th round pick on Best when you can get him in the 6th or 7th? Tate can also be found in those rounds. I guess the Best pick irks me more. In the 4th round, you’re still taking top 50 players, seems incredibly risky to pass over a top 50 player for a guy who might not even be able to play football again. Just my 2 cents.

Ches
9 years ago

In a 24-team league, first round went:

1.1 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
1.2 Trent Richardson RB CLE
1.3 Calvin Johnson WR DET
1.4 Cam Newton QB CAR
1.5 Arian Foster RB HOU
1.6 Ray Rice RB BAL
1.7  Matthew Stafford QB DET
1.8 LeSean McCoy RB PHI
1.9 Robert Griffin QB WAS

I picked Drew Brees at 10th overall. I followed that up with selecting Greg Jennings and Wes Welker at 39th and 51st overall, respectively. Seeing as how both of those WRs were picked in the top 30 of this “expert” draft, I think I got a great value.

Carlos
9 years ago

I think you got good value with Matt Ryan picking him where you did.

Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

Personally, I would taken Luck in the 6th, then come back with Romo/Manning in the 7th. Michael Turner in the 8th, then Fleener/Cook/Celek in the 9th and hope Kendall Wright was still there in the 10th.

That being said, I like Matt Ryan this year, also my starter.

One more thing, and I am not trying to be mean…but is JunkyardJake drafting with a dartboard?

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

Weird that drafting Michael Turner in the 8th round is considered a “wild stab”. You are the expert here,sir, but I see minimal risk with drafting Turner as a stopgap RB3.

What is your opinion on Jacquizz? Do you like his chances to eventually achieve rb2-rb3 value in ppr? Is he returning kicks/punts?

Robert Scibetta
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

In a ppr dynasty start-up, I’d rather have TINA TURNER!

To be fair, I never have really liked him in ppr fantasy(LOVE him on the field), but Turner seems to have 2 or 3, 150yd, 2-3 TD games, and lots of 50-70 yd, 0TD games. I’ll take somebody else with the pick, and let you predict when he goes off while he fades from fantasy relevance.

tebow
9 years ago

hopefully you can grab wilson since you have Bradshaw. if his feet go out then you will have an explosive handcuff option

9 years ago

Looks like I am in minority but I don’t think Ryan has a shot in hell to be a top 6 or even top 10 qb….I personally find him overrated….rarely has monster games and has plenty if sub par ones…he does not have a big time arm and is not mobile sounds like they are going to try and air it out more this year but until I see it I am not a believer Romo and Manning are tier above IMO

sean mcguigan
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

Regarding Brady the slow part yes…sub par arm? Not so much as he always has had a pretty good one even back in Michigan….here is deal with Ryan he is definitely smart but Almost never steps up against decent pass defenses and pass rushing teams……not sure…29 TDS and barely 4000 yards used to be great but not anymore now 4500and 40 is what you look for in QB….I think 7 or 8 QBs have a decent shot at 5000 yards and 35-45 tds in the pass friendly nfl…..Ryan is not one of those guys IMO good QB decent fantasy QB but not a stud…

I could be a little tainted from Giants playoff game where he looked lost…in full disclosure I also traded him not long ago for draft picks and Freeman(now that is a qb with a cannon)

Just my opinion but unless falcons have a real soft schedule last year is what you are gonna get….solid but nothing special

VoiceofUnreason
9 years ago

Nice draft but Crabtree in 7, not so sure. He’s overrated if anything.

I understand why people don’t like Beanie but is he really worse than Starks or Donald Brown?

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

Starks is 26 and has never played a full season going all the way back to his junior year in college. At 6-2 he runs too high and his lower body is too thin.

Green and Saine will eat his touches, what few there are in the Packer passing attack, and regardless Green is the future back of that organization.

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

Well, what part was false?

Starks just can’t stay healthy. He’s 26. He’s 6-2. His lower body is thin. He runs tall.

Saine and Green will take some touches from Starks, and the Packers will pass 60% or more of the time.

Yes, those are absolutes. They are also facts.

Green is younger, bigger, faster, and has a lower center of gravity. He has better hands out of the backfield – this was evident in last year’s preseason games and from the practices.

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

He’ll likely be the #1 there this year – certainly next year.

Round 16 or after is what I’d be looking for, depending on how the roster is filling out.

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

10th?

Is that a case of drafting the guy who could become a #1 or #2 while passing up guys who are already #1s or #2s?

It would seem so.

Jimmy Graham Cracker
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

10th round was definitely way too early. Especially for a guy that went in the supplemental draft.

Amoo
9 years ago

FFToday must have high hopes for Kevin Smith… They drafted him in Rounds 9 AND 10.

Jimmy Graham Cracker
Reply to  Amoo
9 years ago

He’s the guy to own in a high powered offense. I’d take two of him too.

SJ
9 years ago

Somebodys gonna be rooting for some Falcon games 😉

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