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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  I got a lot of negative feedback on the forum when I posted that I was thinking of trading Santonio Holmes and James Starks for Sidney Rice and Brandon Jacobs. Not a blockbuster by any means. Am I missing something here other than giving up on Starks long-term potential? Jim in Maine

I’m not surprised this trade caught some heat in the forum.

At this point, Brandon Jacobs is essentially worthless in dynasty.  It’s not even clear that he is the handcuff to Gore.  Even if Gore was to go down, I’m not sure any of the SFO backs are worth starting.

So, this deal is really Holmes/Starks for Rice.  I’m not high on any of these guys (I covered my distaste for Starks in a previous mailbag).  I’d rather own Rice because he has upside that Holmes does not.  Of course there’s a better than even chance that neither of them provides any meaningful fantasy value.  Rice has missed something like 18 regular season games over the last two years while Holmes doesn’t generate sufficient stats to make him interesting.  I suspect the argument in the forum was essentially – why trade away the outside shot at Starks becoming a flex level RB for the outside shot that Rice plays even close to a full season?

I don’t have a big problem with the deal because Holmes/Starks carry little value for me.  If you have sufficient depth, I think gambling on Rice is fine.  Realize you are betting a long shot.

2.)  I currently have Eli & Matt Ryan.  I rate Eli just outside the top five, but feel that the drop-off from the elite guys is significant.  Would you deal Ryan & DeMarco Murray for Cam Newton, Mendenhall & Redman?  Note:  I also have McCoy and Rice at RB.  – Jeff in Jersey

First off, wow – McCoy, Rice and Murray.  Very nice indeed especially since you mentioned in your note that this is in fact a 12-team league.

I have no problem at all with you dealing Murray/Ryan for Cam Newton straight up.  Getting Mendy and Redman is nice; collectively they will serve as a mediocre RB3 for you.  This is one of those situations where you can easily add Ryan to the deal because you don’t need him after the trade.  It probably causes the value to be in the other team’s favor, but it has zero impact on you.

That said, does it have to be Newton?  I completely agree with your comment that there is an elite five and that Cam is in it.  For me, he is clearly number five.  Assuming you have anything reasonable at WR you are a serious title contender and I think Newton is the riskiest of the top five in 2012.

You can withstand the injury risk of Stafford with Eli as your fallback.  And you can afford to do just about anything you want at QB.  Before I “settled” on Cam, I’d explore all four other options.  I’d even be willing include Rice or McCoy in a deal if it meant getting A-Rod.  Murray is a fine RB2 for you with Rodgers at the helm.

3.)  I’m a Wes Welker owner, and I’m trying to figure out what to do with him.  Trade now or ride him until he retires.  When is it time to move Welker, and if so what do you get for him?  – Brett in Nashville

I’d pay you a lot for Welker on a contending team in a PPR.  And I mean a lot.

I believe you can never have enough WRs.  Year in and year out even highly regarded studs disappoint us.  Greg Jennings, Dez Bryant, Dwayne Bowe all finished outside the top-15 in PPR leagues in 2011.  We will have some misses again this year and the only way to protect yourself is to have more than enough WRs.

As a diehard Titans, fan it’s very hard to say anything nice about the Patriots, but trying to be objective:  I’m giddy about what that passing offense is going to do this year.  I’m buying Brady where I can; I’d buy Welker, Gronk, Hernandez and Lloyd as well.  It would not surprise me one bit if Brady is the top scorer in 2012.  Bonus tip:  This also means I’m avoiding the Patriots backfield in all situations.

I think now is the time to buy Welker, not sell him.  Twitter has been ablaze with people suggesting that because he didn’t get a long term deal his dynasty value took a serious hit.  I think that’s an overreaction.  First, they can easily tag him again.  Second, they could do a deal next year.  Third, he’s a talented player who is unfairly portrayed as a product of the system/Brady.

4.) Which two should I keep out of Mike Vick, Darren McFadden, Darren Sproles, Julio Jones, Percy Harvin?  Justin in Minnesota

It would depend somewhat on the rules.  The big question is how long you can keep these guys.  My answer would differ if it was forever or just for another year or two.  Let’s assume you can keep them in perpetuity.

When I get these shallow keeper questions, I turn to the rankings on our partner site 4for4.com because a keep-2 league is much closer to redraft than dynasty.  As I suspected, McFadden is an easy keeper.  He’s the only guy on your list who is a sure fire first or second round redraft selection.

The next keeper is a bit tougher.  None of the rest of your options has a current redraft ADP in the top two rounds.  I think it’s safe to toss Vick out of the equation and Julio is clearly a notch above Harvin.  So it comes down to Julio vs. Sproles.  I’ll keep Julio because I think he has more enduring value than Sproles and there’s a good chance you keep him for years to come.

5.)All five of the top QBs will be available in my keeper draft.  I’m keeping Gronk, Murray and Cruz.  Would you take Rodgers, McCoy or Foster with the 1.02 pick? Steve in Buffalo

We must be getting close to the NFL season because the keeper questions are hitting fast and furious!  It’s like the first smell of Spring after a long, cold Winter.  Or in this case, the first hint of Fall after a blazing hot Summer here in the Southeast!

Enough waxing poetic, Steve you have some very nice choices with the 1.02.  I’m guessing since these guys are all available that teams cannot keep their first rounder the following year.  If that’s the case, you will only have this player for 2012.  Somewhat reduces the attractiveness of Rodgers.  His high dynasty value is in part attributable to the tremendous longevity owners expect from him.

Any of these guys is a fine selection, but I’d take Foster.  Although I like Murray, I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as my RB1.  With your set of keepers, I’d probably forego the stud quarterback and look to get Vick, Romo or Ryan after I added a second receiver.  I have a sneaky feeling that 2012 might be a darn good year for Vick.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

16 Comments
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BadgerYou
9 years ago

I traded Antonio Brown pick 6/9 (2012 Rookie Draft) for Welker and 3rd/4th rounder in a .5 ppr league. My team is considered the “favorite” by all the others in my league.

BadgerYou
Reply to  BadgerYou
9 years ago

Yes I know I gave up a lot but I’m in it to win it this year.

Jimmy Graham Cracker
Reply to  BadgerYou
9 years ago

Cool story, bro.

Reply to  Jimmy Graham Cracker
9 years ago

Yeah how dare he include a story relevant to the subject matter of the mailbag.

As a Welker owner, thanks for the insight BadgerYou.

BadgerYou
Reply to  Eric Hardter
9 years ago

I was just about to say something along those lines.

Cool story? Hardly.

Relevant story? Yes.

Matt Peach
Reply to  BadgerYou
9 years ago

Is that pick 6 out of 9 picks or picks 6 and 9

BadgerYou
Reply to  BadgerYou
9 years ago

Pick 6 and 9

Matt Peach
Reply to  BadgerYou
9 years ago

Seems a bit steep to me. One of them i can understand but the Z receiver in a Haley offense usually leads to fantasy goodness especially in PPR

Ken Dogson
9 years ago

On Welker –

2012 will be another great FF season for him, barring injury. But age catches up with everyone, and there is no guarantee he has a decent QB throwing to him in 2013.

If at any trade deadline you are out of it, move him for a younger WR or two.

bbwayne
Reply to  Ken Dogson
9 years ago

Yeah. I agree with this. As much as I love Welker, I don’t think he comes anywhere close to his production on another team. The Patroits are so far ahead of people that they probably have identified the next slot WR for the team. There is no way Welker is franchised next year(too much $$$) so unless he signs a discounted deal he will be gone. It’s a situation to monitor closely but look to Shipley or Amedola as potential Welker replacements after this year. Get your value this year, but the future is cloudy.

Again, think about objectively. Is Welker the same player in another offense? I don’t think so.

9 years ago

i traded dez bryant, santonio holmes and mark ingram for jimmy grahm.
its a 10 team league.
my team now looks like this.

Peyton manning(QB), ben rothlesberger
ray rice(rb), marshawn lynch(rb),stevan ridley, micheal bush
demariyus thomas(wr) jeremy maclin(wr), lance moore, micheal floyd, rubeun handle, nate burlseson
rob gronkowki(te), jimmy grahm(flex)
Patriots d/spt(d/spt)
lawrence times(k)

how does my team look? the starters i put there position right next to there name

Chad
9 years ago

Would you trade

My: Andre Johnson

for

His: Percy Harvin and 2013 1st (6-9)

my team listed below….Thanks!

Dynasty, PPR (.5), 12 team league, 1 qb 1-2 rb 3-4 wr 1 te, 1 flex (rb, wr, te), 1 k & 1 def

QB: Tom Brady NE, Big Ben PIT

RB: Darren McFadden OAK, MJD JAX, Ahmad Bradshaw NYG, BJGE CIN, Bernard Scott CIN, Rashad Jennings JAX

WR: Andre Johnson HOU, Calvin Johnson DET, Larry Fitzgerald ARI, Roddy White ATL, Kenny Britt TEN, Johnny Knox CHI, Doug Baldwin SEA

TE: Jimmy Graham NO

K: Stephen Gostkowski NEP

DEF: Chargers

Matt Peach
Reply to  Chad
9 years ago

No way. If you move a WR it needs to be for upgrade at RB2. Format allows you to get by with DMC as RB1 but Bradshaw is a liability at RB1 when injury strikes

Ken Widerka
Reply to  Matt Peach
9 years ago

I agree that he could use an upgrade at rb, but value is value. I personally would not trade Harvin straight up for AJ. Getting a 2013 1st would put it way over the top for me. Do the deal.

Josh
9 years ago

Is now the right time to sell either RG3 or Spiller, or wait for them to improve on their value? I think Spiller is going to make the jump sooner rather than later as a RB1, with the running ability he showed last year and Fred Jackson’s age as the two major factors. As for RG3, I just can’t see myself dealing him for anything less than an elite talent, as that’s what he has a good chance to be.

Pancakes
Reply to  Josh
9 years ago

Why would you want to sell them at all? You only sell when 1. You expect less than ideal fantasy production 2. Perceived value is expected to about to go down

neither of these things are happening anytime soon

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