The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  I am considering offering the 1.03 rookie pick and one of AJ Green, Mike Wallace or Miles Austin for Aaron Rodgers.  What do you think? – Ben via e-mail

It’s certainly a lot to give, but that may be what it takes to get Aaron Rodgers.  In order to answer this question definitively, I’d need to know your roster.

I like trading the 1.03 rookie pick in this deal.  It’s a very valuable piece, but because it is an unproven player it carries a fair degree of risk.  I see this as a “sell-high” move on your part.

The WRs you list are of varying value.  I think universally people would agree that Austin is the least valuable in the group.  I wonder if Austin/1.03 would be sufficient to entice the Rodgers owner.  Maybe you start with that offer and see what happens.

Take a look at your roster.  If you are otherwise going to be starting a low end QB1 and you have a reasonable option to slide in as your WR3, I think I’d work the deal.  Rodgers is a serious fantasy difference maker and he’s got plenty of gas in the tank.

2.)  Why is it that Eli Manning is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL and Fantasy? When I try to make deals to improve my team, other owners seem insulted that I would even mention Eli in a deal.  – Ashley in Denton, TX

 

I like your sense of humor Ashley.

I don’t know why Eli Manning gets so little respect.  It was as if he committed a crime last year when he said he believed himself to be elite.  Would people rather him think of himself as mediocre?  And let’s not forget the trade that sent him to New York.  At the time, and for several years after, the consensus opinion was that San Diego cleaned the Giants clock.  Well Chargers fans, how many rings do you have?

Of course it’s possible to be a great NFL QB and not a great fantasy QB – think Big Ben and, for the older folks out there, Troy Aikman.  Let’s break it down:

• Receiving threats:  I took a look at our partner 4for4.com’s rankings.  These guys are the best in the business of projecting near-term production and they have Victor Cruz as the WR3 and Hakeem Nicks as the WR4 for redraft.  Well if they are even close, that spells good things for Eli.
• Durability:  Eli Manning is one of the most reliable players in the NFL.  He simply doesn’t miss games.  You can’t say that about Michael Vick or Matt Stafford or Tony Romo.
• Price:  The price on Eli is reasonable.  He’s going off the board as the QB6 somewhere in the fifth round of start-ups –  that’s decent value because by then you have drafted your stud receivers and stud running backs.  If you want to take Cam Newton or Matt Stafford, you will need to sacrifice at receiver or running back.

Okay, so enough good stuff.  The problem with Eli is that he won’t win you many games on his own and he may lose you one or two a year.  In 2011 in a six point per TD league, Eli only had two games of thirty points or more (one of which was week 17).  Compare that to Tom Brady who had eight and A-Rod who had nine.  I have Eli ranked as my QB6 for dynasty.  Remember there’s a massive gap in perceived value between the top-5 and Eli.  He’s comes at a discount.  He’s the best of the rest.

3.)  I have a fairly solid team from top to bottom.  I’m debating between David Wilson and Justin Blackmon at the 1.06.  Leaning toward Blackmon, is that a mistake?  – Alex in Raleigh

First off, no, it’s not a mistake.  And second, how the mighty have fallen.

It’s been less than three months since the NFL draft and I don’t think a single player has taken more of a value hit than Justin Blackmon.  Pre-draft there was a raging debate as to whether he as elite or not.  Many, many people posted in our forums that he was a stud in the making.  I took strong positions against that and was in the minority.  Dynasty players wanted to believe Blackmon was the next Julio Jones or AJ Green.

Fast forward to today.  The buzz on Blackmon has all but died off.  Where are those people who said he was elite?  Going to Jacksonville doesn’t have any impact on him as a player.  Certainly it impacts his fantasy value, but if he’s elite, he’s elite.  Did going to Cincinnati seem like a terrific destination for AJ Green?

My point is that dynasty owners need to have courage in their convictions.  If you believed that Justin Blackmon was an up and coming stud, his going to Jacksonville shouldn’t have dropped him very far down your rookie board.

Alex, take whichever player of David Wilson or Blackmon you like better.  They are exceptional athletes and I think both will become solid fantasy contributors.

4.) Randy Moss is available in our rookie/FA draft.  Is the 1.07 too early to take him?  I have no picks after that.  – Alan in New Jersey

 

Yes, that’s too early to take Randy Moss.  Sounds like you want him, but unfortunately the prudent move is to let him go to another owner.  Moss shouldn’t be selected in a rookie/FA draft until the late second.  And even that’s probably a reach.

For all intents and purposes, Randy Moss hasn’t played football since 2009.  I’m tossing out that strange 2010 season where he moved around the league and mostly sat out the second half anyway.  He’s 35 years old!  I know I preach that age isn’t as big a deal as a lot of dynasty owners think, but there’s a limit.  His dynasty value is very low.

Let’s say you could get him with a late second.  Would you even want him?  What would it take to make you comfortable putting him in your line up?  Randy Moss will have an exceptional game or two this year.  I’d bet on it.  But I’d bet against you being able to predict which week it will be.

 

5.) I’ve been going back and forth on this trade for a week.  I would give AJ Green and James Starks for Forte and two future firsts.  I am a contender.  What would you do? – Ben in Holt, MI

James Starks should be in the AMC show “The Walking Dead.”  He just won’t go away.  He was over-hyped last preseason, disappointed, fell in value, but now he’s the cat’s meow again.  Let’s be crystal clear – James Starks is an average talent on a team that prefers not to run the ball.  The great news for Starks owners is that somehow they have the opportunity to sell him at high value once again.

AJ Green is a tremendous player, but so is Matt Forte.  I like the flexibility you’re getting by banking two future firsts.  They are very valuable as trade commodities and if you find yourself needing to make a mid-season addition before the playoff push, having them will be helpful.  This deal comes down to what you need more – a stud receiver or a solid running back.  Without knowing your roster, I can’t say one way or the other.  On value, I think it’s fine.

6.) My league is expanding from eight to ten teams, but we have no idea how to best go about it.  Expansion draft?  Something else? – Milo in Massachusetts

This comes up from time to time in the DLF forums and usually the consensus is there isn’t a good answer.  But I think it would be fun to go through the process and see how it played out.  Regardless of what approach you take, there will be winners and losers.  That naturally creates a degree of tension in the league.

Option One:  Disband the league and start again.  Of course some owners won’t want to do this.  People have built up their teams, traded for (or away) future picks, etc.  The advantage, of course, is this gives the new owners an equal chance.

Option Two:  The most common approach I’ve seen is the expansion draft.  Each team exposes a few of their players and picks to the draft.  Then the expansion teams do a snake draft to build their rosters from that pool.

If you go with the expansion draft approach, you need to carefully consider how many players you force each team to expose.  If you don’t cut in to the muscle of the existing teams, you will put the new owners at a serious disadvantage for several years.  This is a philosophical question – should the teams coming in be in rebuild from day one or should they have a chance to contend immediately?

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.