First off, we’d like to take a moment to recognize that it’s Independence Day. This is a day to celebrate our country and everything it stands for. As we spend time with our families today, we’d like to take a moment to recognize the men and women who serve our country or have served in the past so we can enjoy the freedoms we have each and every day.
The DLF crew salutes you all!
In the recent Dynasty Dichotomy post, we took a survey of our writers to get their opinions on players who were tough to rank and also attempted to prove we could spell dichotomy. The results were great and it provided a nice platform for discussion.
Let’s do it again!
For this special Independence day edition, we polled our writing staff and asked them who they believed were the four players who were the best candidates to sell this off-season. The list we had was pretty exhaustive. It included players that some believed were being overvalued due to their inordinate production last season, their age, perceived injury risk, or simply too much hype being placed on them.
While no player on this list is a bad player (or a bad player to have on your team), the obvious idea in any dynasty league is to sell high and buy low. After compiling all the votes, there were four players who garnered the most attention – the “Four for July” are presented here:
Roddy White, WR ATL
After a slow start to his career, White was the poster child for the third year wide receiver breakout theory when he exploded for 83 catches, 1,202 yards and six touchdowns in 2007. He’s followed that up with 388 catches, 5,220 yards and 36 touchdowns the past four years, establishing himself as one of the premier players at his position, especially in PPR leagues.
So, what’s the problem? There are two, actually.
First, White is now 30 years old and will turn 31 during the season. While receivers can certainly play much longer than running backs, it’s quite likely that White’s best days are behind him. He still has the ability to post some great numbers, but how many seasons can you really expect to get them?
The second issue is in the form of Julio Jones. It’s very possible, if not likely, that Jones becomes the primary target in the offense, leaving White fewer targets. In fact, White himself has been talking lately that he expects his production to go down this season.
While White is still a great player to own, this may be your last chance to get a really good price for him via trade. If you’re not a contending team, he’s a player to shop around to see what’s out there. A contender will surely pay a King’s ransom for him.
Jacob Tamme, TE DEN
The Tamme hype train is going off the tracks. In fact, we’re fielding questions in the forum in regards to if he should be targeted in the first round of rookie and free agent drafts.
No, he should not.
There’s no doubt that Tamme was a stud when he took over for Dallas Clark in Indianapolis back in 2010. In fact, he posted 67 catches for 631 yards and four touchdowns that year, even though he started only eight games. The problem is many owners seem to be just penciling in that type of production over an entire season for Tamme in Denver next year. While he’ll undoubtedly be a factor, that’s a pretty tough sell.
Tamme should be targeted a lot by Peyton Manning, but there are other capable players in the offense, namely Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker who are also going to get theirs. Valuing him as a no brainer TE1 is risky, especially since we haven’t seen Manning throw a football in quite some time. As Jarrett Behar said, “Tamme is a mediocre talent and is being way overvalued due to the Peyton factor.”
I couldn’t have said it better myself.
Jordy Nelson, WR GB
After three relatively quiet seasons, Nelson exploded last year for 68 catches, 1,263 yards and an amazing 15 touchdowns. In some non-PPR leagues, he was the second best receiver behind only Calvin Johnson. As a few of our writers noted, that touchdown-to-catch ratio is not only amazing, but likely not repeatable when you consider some of the factors going against him.
First, Aaron Rodgers had an unbelievable season. Can he really throw for 45 touchdowns next year? Even if he did, one third of those touchdown passes would have to go to Nelson for him to repeat those numbers – that’s an extremely tall task.
Second, Nelson had one huge game in a meaningless week seventeen game against the Lions where he had nine catches for 162 yards and three scores playing pitch and catch with Matt Flynn. While you can’t just discount that game, it was undoubtedly a fluky effort all the way around statistically. Take that game out and his numbers are a little more reasonable.
Finally, the Packers offense spreads the ball around as well as any team. It’s conceivable to see another receiver catch 15 touchdown passes next year, but would it surprise you if it wasn’t Greg Jennings?
The Packers are expanding Nelson’s role next year and he should be able to post another solid season. However, valuing him in the class of the truly elite players at the position is a serious gamble. If another owner in your league has that type of a love affair with Nelson, trade him now while you can get that type of an elite premium.
Doug Martin, RB TB
Here we go!
There’s no doubt this will be the most controversial player on this list, but there’s a reason why. As Tim Stafford exclaimed, “I’m not sure you’ll ever be able to get as much as you can for him right now. His current ADP is #38. Come on!”
Martin is going to get a lot of carries and should emerge as a great player in dynasty leagues. However, there’s a risk with him that accompanies any rookie – we don’t know how good he’ll be until he actually suits up. There’s no doubt that he looks the part, but acquiring him is costing people established or young players like Julio Jones or Matt Forte. Why trade established talent for a player you think could be an established talent in the future?
At this point in the off-season, every rookie looks like the next big thing. At this time next year, half of them will look like total busts. While the chance of that with Martin seems small, it’s not small enough to merit taking him as high as many are. If you have Martin or the rights to draft him, it looks like it could fetch a small fortune if you’re not all the way sold on him.
So, who are your best sell candidates?
Others receiving at least one vote: DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, Robert Meachem, Shonn Greene, Antonio Gates, Tony Romo, Victor Cruz, Dez Bryant, Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, Peyton Manning, Jacquizz Rodgers, David Wilson, Demaryius Thomas, Reggie Bush, Eric Decker, Matt Stafford, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Cam Newton, Julio Jones, Ryan Mathews, Mike Wallace, Kenny Britt, Greg Jennings and Jason Witten.
You can follow me on Twitter – @DLF_KenK.