The DLF Mailbag

Tim Stafford

jones
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.)  Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.)  Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.)  Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1:  I have Big Ben and just traded Eli and a 2013 first round pick for the 1.03.  I’ve been catching some flack in the forums for this move, but I don’t know that Eli will ever be elite (i.e. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, etc.).  I intend to take Luck or RG3 with the pick.  What do you think? Dan in Sarasota, FL

Well what’s done is done.  Taking RG3 or Luck with the pick is smart.  They’re going to be the best player available at 1.03 in a typical dynasty league.

I’m not surprised the forum is reacting negatively toward this deal.  I would have advised against it as well.  There are a number of reasons:

  • Value:  Purely on market value, you overpaid.  Eli currently has a start-up ADP of player #50 while Luck is player #60 and RG3 is player #63.  This means that if you wanted to make this deal, you shouldn’t have had to include the future pick.
  • 1.02 vs. 1.03:  I’d at least have liked to get the 1.02 in this deal rather than the 1.03.  I find it difficult to buy that you can have such a strong feeling about both players that you are willing to overpay to get one.  If you said, I have a really great feeling about Luck and I believe he’s going to be super elite. Then okay maybe you overpay.  I’m all for reaching for your guy when your gut tells you to, but not reaching for the leftovers of the two guys.
  • Risk:  You’ve taken on a much greater risk profile doing this deal.  Dynasty owners don’t like to acknowledge that rookies bust at a high rate.  The statistical odds are that one of Luck or RG3 busts.  Eli isn’t going to bust.  He’s compiled 4,000 plus yards and 27 plus TDs in three straight years.  Remember, the difference between Eli and the elite guys was purely TD production.  You are counting on the Colts or the Redskins to add weapons and run a certain type of offense that produces that many passing TDs.  Maybe your bet pays off, maybe it doesn’t.
  • Big Ben:  You’ve pretty much handicapped yourself for two years in all likelihood.  Neither RG3 nor Luck is going to pull off a Cam Newton and rush for 14 TDs.  I suppose you’ll play QBBC with Ben and the rookie, but you’ll be lucky to get better production than say the QB#10 in your league.  Maybe the new offense in Pittsburgh will bail you out.

Finally, I hope Luck falls to you.  I think if that happens you can at least feel somewhat safe that in a year or two you’ll have a quarterback who is at least as good as Eli.

2:  I was recently offered Andre Johnson for Brandon Marshall.  On the DLF rankings, Johnson is quite a bit higher but I find myself concerned with last year’s injury plagued season as well as his age.  Is this a legitimate concern or should I get this deal done? – Brady in Alaska

I’m higher on Marshall than the DLF ranking.  You can see from the individual rankings that the partners also differ somewhat on Marshall as well.

Both players come with risks.  Clearly, Johnson is an injury concern at this point.  Not only does he get nicked up, but he also seems to come back slowly from the injuries.  Marshall carries the off-field risks and also the uncertainty of joining a new team.

For me this would come down to the rest of my team, if I’m a contender I lean toward Johnson because I think he could be a difference maker.  I’d be more comfortable taking on Johnson if I had another elite WR who has a strong track record of playing most/all of his games.  Guys like Bowe, Wallace or Roddy.  I don’t think I’d want to pair him with Julio Jones, Harvin or Steve Johnson for example.

3:  I’m in a contract league and will have the choice to select either Trent Richardson or Ray Rice in our FA draft.  Richardson is five years younger than Rice and I could easily give him a ten year contract. Is ten years of Richardson better than four or five years of Ray Rice?  – Chris in Montclair, NJ

Hang on – ten years?

First off, you shouldn’t plan in ten year horizons in much of anything (except investing) and especially not dynasty football.  It’s quite possible that Trent Richardson will have a ten year career.  But the net present value of the production in years four and on is minimal.

Just for fun here are the first round backs from some drafts around ten years ago:

  • 2002:  William Green and TJ Ducket
  • 2003:  Willis McGahee and Larry Johnson
  • 2004:  Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones and Chris Perry

While there are some nice names on the list, there are also some guys who outright busted or had relatively short careers.

But that was a bit of a digression.  The way I’d recommend making this decision is based on what you think will happen over three years or four at most.  If you believe that Trent Richardson will outscore Ray Rice over that horizon, then take him for sure.  If you think otherwise, or believe that because he’s a rookie he carries some risk that Rice does not, then take Rice.

4:  I’ve read where Isaiah Pead might be the next “Chris Johnson” for Jeff Fisher, and that certainly has me salivating.  If I don’t select Pead at 1.8, there’s no way he falls to me at 2.8.  Should I just go with best player available in rookie drafts or is it okay to reach for a player who might just as well be a bust?  Kaleb in The Hague, Holland

I can’t comment on the article you mention because I’m not familiar with it.  Chris Johnson is an elite athlete and I’m not sure I’d say that about Pead.  Pead is an agile player with above average speed.  But he brings some uncertainty with him when it comes to carrying the full load, blocking skills and pass catching.  The good news for Pead owners is that S.Jax is declining and has a lot of wear on him.  Plus Fisher has a proven track record of running the ball.

As to your question, I don’t think 1.08 is excessively early to take Pead.  No one blinked when he went 1.09 in my salary cap league.  And you’re right; he won’t be there at 2.08.  After the top six players, I’m fairly open to people making a gut decision.  I think Wilson is clearly the next best player and if he was there at 1.08, I’d have a very hard time passing on him.  But after that, it becomes a bit less clear.  This is especially true if you happen to be in a non-PPR.

Which will you regret more:  having Pead and seeing him bust or not having him and seeing him hit?  It’s your team, have some fun with it.  Chances are your 2012 rookie selection isn’t going to make or break you.

5: I am trying my hardest to obtain Julio Jones, but his owner is coming off a championship and has no real needs.  I offered DeMarco Murray and a 2013 first but he hasn’t bitten on that.  Would it be too much to offer Murray/Jordy Nelson for Jones/Shonn Greene? Josh in Westland, MI

You aren’t alone in trying to acquire Julio Jones.

I’ll say this:  in 90% of the situations it’s a waste of time and energy to try to acquire Julio Jones.  That’s certainly the case when he’s on a team that just won the championship and has no real needs.

A good team isn’t going to trade him.  Why would they?  He’s likely to produce at least high end WR2 numbers this year and he’s only been in the league for a year.  It’s worth trading him for an aging veteran in a win-now move because he could easily out produce the veteran.

A bad team probably isn’t going to trade him either.  They will properly demand extraordinary compensation and rarely can a team justify paying that price.  I suppose you might get an inpatient owner in a rebuild who wants to trade one for two or for a player and a pick.

As to the question, yes you’re overpaying.  You’ll need to in order to get him.  If you can sustain losing two high end weekly starters for Jones, then go for it.  But you’d need to have a stunning roster to make this deal sensible.  I’d bet that Murray/Nelson will outscore Greene/Jones in 2012 and 2013.  That means you need to have a player on your bench to replace Murray in your line-up who isn’t Shonn Greene.

6: When a team drafts two excellent or similar style players at the same position in the same or consecutive years (Gronk/Hernandez in NE, Hunter/James in SF) is this an indication that management has made a philosophic strategic decision regarding that position and is “insuring” it, or is it just the team drafting BPA?  When should dynasty leaguers pay attention? – Sam in Wisconsin

It could be a lot of things.  It depends on the general manager, the head coach and the state of the NFL team.  The two examples you give are quite different in my opinion.

Gronk/Hernandez:  This signaled a change in offensive strategy coming from Belichick.  Good dynasty owners understood this and capitalized.  I think people understood that Belichick wasn’t hedging his bets but rather that he saw a creative way to work both of these elite players in to his offense.

Hunter/James:  We don’t really know yet what this means, so for now it’s speculation.  My read on this one is that it’s a combination of SFO taking BPA and not being totally bought in to Hunter.  I’m of the opinion that Hunter is a player who has lost a ton of value this off-season.  I wasn’t especially concerned about the Jacobs signing – when Gore is your lead back, you need some options.  But the James pick is bad for Hunter.  He’s gone from looking like the heir apparent to being another guy in a crowded backfield.  If SFO was convinced that Hunter was the guy, James was a wasteful selection.  And SFO is a well-run organization.

So I think the answer is “it depends”.  You need to analyze each situation individually taking in to account the players, coach, front office and the team composition.

Guest Question: When is the soonest to take a veteran in your rookie draft? I have a big need at LB and #25 ranked Perry Riley is available.  Is the fifth round too early? – Matt in Chattanooga

Occasionally I get a question that I can’t handle, but that deserves an answer.  In these cases, I call in the experts on the staff at DLF.  Matt, today’s your lucky day.  You get to hear from not one, but two of our IDP experts.

We currently have Riley ranked as our 23rd overall LB on the DLF LB rankings so I’d say taking him in the fifth round of a rookie draft isn’t a stretch at all! I’d even consider him in the third or fourth. It’s tough to get an LB ranked that high and in a rookie draft most guys in the fifth will never break your roster anyway! – @TheFFGhost

And

I’d agree.  Fifth round would actually be some nice value, though he only starts 2 LBs, so I’m not sure I’d take him earlier than the fourth. – @SteveWyremski

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.