Developing a Flexible Auction Draft Strategy (FADS) Worksheet

TheFFGhost

The increased popularity of the auction format is leading to more and more questions being sent to DLF regarding just how much each player is worth. Unlike average draft position (ADP) values which track where players should go in a standard serpentine draft, auction draft participants traditionally have had no clear cut value they could point to in order to determine a player’s worth. There are several reasons for this, chief among them being initially a lack of popularity of the format and now currently the amazing variation within the format, specifically roster size, starting line-up size, standard or IDP formats and finally, salary cap size.

Due to the increasing demand, I’ve taken it upon myself to attempt to help clear up some of the confusion and will attempt to provide a handy and easy to use system for valuing players that can be tailored to your individual league settings. Previous attempts at player valuation for the auction format have depended upon arbitrarily set salary caps and have ignored roster requirements or limitations. I feel this new system that I’ve been calling the Flexible Auction Draft Strategy (FADS) both accounts for previous oversights and also provides flexibility for owners who wish to pursue an approach which they feel most comfortable with. The method I’ve developed for determining how much you should bid for any one player is fairly simple, can be applied to virtually any auction and can be done fairly easily in Microsoft Excel or even with a calculator and some scratch paper.

Let’s take a closer look at the steps that make up FADS and examine its inner workings:

1.) In order to work up your FADS player valuation sheet, you’ll need two important pieces of information:

a.) Your league’s salary cap per team and

b.) The roster requirements outlined by your league. This information includes the minimum and maximum roster requirements and the required starting lineup requirements.

2.) Next, you will need to obtain a list which outlines how each player performed using your league’s scoring system for the prior year. This is usually can be found on most major fantasy football hosting sites. For instance, on MyFantasyLeague.com or in Fleaflicker, this information can be found under the link labeled “Players Stats.”

3.) With the information we’ve obtained, we now have the building blocks for a FADS worksheet. At this point, one must determine if they want to pursue an aggressive strategy, a balanced strategy or a strategy which attempts to maximize depth and value. This decision is important as it will affect how your team will be built and will lock you into your chosen strategy for a long time. From this point on, I will break down the instructions one must use in order to develop the FADS sheet based upon the strategy they have chosen.

Aggressive FADS Worksheet

In the aggressive version of the FADS worksheet, we try to maximize our starting lineup production at the expense of depth. An owner that decides to pursue the aggressive FADS method will have to fill his roster with the minimum allowable amount of players and must obtain them at the absolutely league minimum salary. I will leave the advantages and disadvantages of each strategy to be debated elsewhere and will simply use this article as an instructing tool.

1.) Using the minimum roster requirements and starting lineup requirements you obtained earlier, place the league minimum amount next to each roster position that is not a starting position. For instance, if your league minimum is $1.00, your roster minimum is 20 players and your starting lineup is 10 players then you would place $1.00 next to players 11-20.

2.) In the required roster spots, place the players you are targeting in their appropriate positions (e.g. if Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback you’re targeting, then place Aaron Rodgers in the quarterback slot reserved for the starting line-up). Include their total points scored for last year next to their name.

3) Once you have filled the starting line-up with your targeted players for each required position and have placed their points scored next to their name, proceed to sum the points for all of those players. You should now have a point total for your starting lineup. At this point, determine what each player’s percentage of that grand total is (e.g. if the starting lineup total was 120 points and Rodgers’ point total was 10 points, then his percentage of the starting lineup points was 8.3% [10/120=0.8333 – 0.8333X100 = 8.3%]). Place this number next to each player. At this point a player should look like this:

Aaron Rodgers 10 Points 8.3%

4.) At this point, subtract the league minimum salaries of players 11-20 from your allocated salary cap. Using the aforementioned hypothetical league minimum salary of $1.00 and a hypothetical salary cap of $100.00, you would now have a starting lineup allocatable salary cap of $90.00. This subtotal was obtained by subtracting $10.00 ($1.00 each from players 11-20) from the total salary cap ($100.00), leaving us with $90.00.

5.) With our starting lineup allocatable salary cap, we now start determining the values for each of our starting lineup players. Using the Aaron Rodgers example we’ve been working up thus far, we would now determine how much of the starting lineup allocatable salary cap we can spend on him. Since we determined he is 8.3% of the overall starting line-up points total, we need to determine what 8.3% of $90.00 is. As it turns out this number is $7.47, this is the value we can feel comfortable assigning to Rodgers in this example.

6.) What if we don’t want Aaron Rodgers but instead we want Cam Newton and want to be able to spend more throughout the rest of our team? Easy, simply remove Rodgers’ total from the starting lineup subtotal and add in Newton’s total points from last year. In this example, say Cam Newton scored 8 points last year. The subtotal for the starting line-up is now 118 and the percentage Cam Newton contributed to this total is now 7% (8/118=0.6949 – 0.6949X100 = 7%). Applying 7% to the starting lineup subtotal we get $6.30 we can feel comfortable spending on Cam Newton.

Balanced FADS Worksheet

Much of the basis for the three methods we’ examine are very similar, but with subtle differences. A balanced approach to the FADS methodology requires an owner to determine what is important to his or her team. In order to roll out a balanced FADS worksheet, an owner must first determine two variables:

1.)  How deep they want their bench to be and

2.) How much they want to allocate to their bench and starting lineup.

In terms of depth, an owner must decide before proceeding just how many players they want on their team. The flexibility here provides much more freedom than the aggressive approach, but this comes at the expense of obtaining more of the top end players. Each player an owner seeks to add to their depth will lower the over amount they can spend on every player, so this is very much a balancing act and a very personal choice.

In regards to salary cap allocation, an owner must determine what percentage of their overall salary cap they want to allocate to their starting lineup and what percentage they want to allocate to their bench. This allocation must, of course, add up to 100%, so an 80/20 split in favor of your starting lineup would be more aggressive while a 50/50 split would allow for a deeper bench, but a far lower grade of players in your starting lineup. With these simple explanations laid out, let’s look at how we construct a balanced FADS worksheet. Remember, much of the methodology is the same and might seem repetitive, but the subtle nuances make all the difference.

1.) Write a list of the starting lineup requirements and the number of bench players you want to obtain. For this example, we’ll say your starting lineup consists of 10 players and you want a bench depth of 15 players.

2.) In the required roster spots, place the players you are targeting in their appropriate positions (e.g. if Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback you’re targeting then place Aaron Rodgers in the quarterback slot reserved for the starting lineup). Include their total points scored for last year next to their name.

3.) Once you have filled the starting lineup with your targeted players for each required position and have placed their points scored next to their name, proceed to sum the points for all those players. You should now have a point total for your starting lineup. At this point, determine what each player’s percentage of that grand total is (e.g. if the starting line-up total was 120 points and Aaron Rodgers point total was 10 points then his percentage of the starting line-up points was 8.3% [10/120=0.8333 – 0.8333X100 = 8.3%]). Place this number next to each player.

At this point a player should look like this:

Aaron Rodgers 10 Points 8.3%

4.) At this point, allocate your salary cap between your starting lineup and bench. In this example, we’ll set a hypothetical salary cap of $100.00. Let’s say you wanted a 75/25 split in favor of your starting lineup, we would allocate $75.00 dollars towards your starting line-up (75% of $100.00 = $75.00) and $25.00 dollars to your bench (25% of $100.00 = $25.00).

5.) At this point, divide the bench salary cap allocation ($25.00) by the number of bench players you are seeking to obtain, in this case 15. This gives us a total of $1.66 we can spend per bench player ($25.00/15 players = $1.66 per player).

6.) With our starting lineup allocatable salary cap, we now start determining the values for each of our starting lineup players. Using the Aaron Rodgers example we’ve been working up thus far, we would now determine how much of the starting lineup allocatable salary cap we can spend on him. Since we determined he is 8.3% of the overall starting line-up points total we need to determine what 8.3% of $75.00 is. As it turns out this number is $6.23, this is the value we can feel comfortable assigning to Rodgers in this example.

7.) As with the Aggressive FADS strategy, we can adjust the players we want to target simply by swapping out the new player we want to target with the previous player in that position as we did with Cam Newton in Step 6 in the Aggressive FADS Strategy.

Value & Depth FADS Worksheet

The final version of the FADS methodology is one which seeks to maximize value and depth. Owners who follow this approach are seeking for more flexibility and options when creating their team. An additional benefit to this approach is the ability to build a team through youth and by obtaining sleepers. The downside, of course, is that this owner will be at a distinct disadvantage when pursuing top level talent. Just as with the balanced approach an owner following this version of the FADS methodology must first determine how much they want to allocate to their bench and starting lineup.

1.) Write a list of the starting lineup requirements and the maximum number of bench players you are permitted to obtain per your league rules. For this example, we’ll say your starting lineup consists of 10 players and the maximum number of players allowed on a team’s bench is 25 players.

2.) In the required roster spots, place the players you are targeting in their appropriate positions (e.g. if Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback you’re targeting then place Aaron Rodgers in the quarterback slot reserved for the starting lineup). Include their total points scored for last year next to their name.

3.) Once you have filled the starting line-up with your targeted players for each required position and have placed their points scored next to their name, proceed to sum the points for all of those players. You should now have a point total for your starting lineup. At this point, determine what each player’s percentage of that grand total is (e.g. if the starting line-up total was 120 points and Aaron Rodgers point total was 10 points then his percentage of the starting line-up points was 8.3% [10/120=0.8333 – 0.8333X100 = 8.3%]). Place this number next to each player. At this point a player should look like this:

Aaron Rodgers 10 Points 8.3%

4.) At this point, allocate your salary cap between your starting lineup and bench. In this example, we’ll set a hypothetical salary cap of $100.00. Let’s say you wanted a 60/40 split in favor of your starting lineup, we would allocate $60.00 dollars towards your starting line-up (60% of $100.00 = $60.00) and $40.00 dollars to your bench (40% of $100.00 = $40.00).

5.) At this point, divide the bench salary cap allocation ($40.00) by the number of bench players you are permitted to obtain, in this case 25. This gives us a total of $1.66 we can spend per bench player ($40.00/25 players = $1.40 per player).

6.) With our starting lineup allocatable salary cap, we now start determining the values for each of our starting lineup players. Using the Aaron Rodgers example we’ve been working up thus far we would now determine how much of the starting lineup allocatable salary cap we can spend on him. Since we determined he is 8.3% of the overall starting lineup points total, we need to determine what 8.3% of $60.00 is. As it turns out, this number is $4.98 – this is the value we can feel comfortable assigning to Aaron Rodgers in this example.

7) Don’t forget, as with the other two versions, you can adjust the players you want to target simply by swapping out the new player you want to target with the previous player in that position as we did with Cam Newton in Step 6 in the Aggressive FADS Strategy.

As you can see, creating a FADS worksheet is beneficial, easy and requires a certain degree of planning and foresight. I can’t stress enough just how much the creation and reviewing of a FADS worksheet both helps you understand the appropriate values of players in your league and how much of an advantage you obtain over your league mates by such an exercise. Just as with budgeting in real life, proper budgeting of a salary cap in an auction league is directly attributable to success. Players who overspend or poorly plan will have to deal with their budget problems all season long, or even for several seasons in extreme cases.

I know that everyone reading this piece may not be savvy with Microsoft Excel but, if at all possible, I’d like to encourage those reading to try to create a simple FADS worksheet in Excel. If there is enough demand for it, I can create a FADS worksheet for the community that will accept a league ID number and interface with MyFantasyLeague.com. This resource would be available to premium subscribers, so just let me know in the comments if you have interest.