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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  When is the time to get the best value out of my 2013 rookie picks?  Do I sit on them until after the season?  Do I hold them and go in to the draft and see what people will offer at the time?  – Brian in Indiana

Perfect question for this time of year as rookie drafts are wrapping up and we move in to roster tweaking time.  I don’t think there’s an exact science on this, but I can tell what’s worked for me. 

Now is not the time to sell.  Your 2013 picks are at their lowest value right now and that will last until part way through the playing season.  The majority of dynasty owners are trying to figure out how to be competitive in 2012 and a 2013 pick does nothing for them right now. 

Selling during the season is fine.  The reason to do this is to make you more competitive.  If you have a solid contender after say six or seven weeks and you feel adding another piece will push you over the top, then trade away picks for a player.  There will be teams that are bailing early and will want to put money in the bank in the form of picks. 

In general, you will get the absolute most for your picks the closer they are to being OTC.  The downside is that the longer you wait, the less flexibility you have and you may be left holding with the pick.  This is a relatively low risk because in most leagues the market for good picks is robust.

2.)  Should I trade David Wilson and DHB for Jamaal Charles?  My current backs are Jonathan Stewart, LeGarrette Blount, and some lesser prospects.  Eric in Pennsylvania

I would. 

Denarius Moore has overtaken DHB as the WR to own in Oakland.  Your best hope for DHB is that he becomes a reliable WR3 in a 12-team league.  While that’s valuable, you can probably find one fairly easily.

Wilson is a very nice prospect.  In January, I had Wilson as my rookie RB2.  He has a dynamic skill set, amazing speed and solid body control.  The plus is that he isn’t afraid of contact either.  He’ll drop his head and initiate in order to try to break the tackle and gain more yardage.  I project his upside as a low-end RB1 in two to three years. 

But you’re getting Jamaal Charles!  He is one of the most talented athletes in the game, his injury was early in the season, and from all reports he’s recovering nicely.  Let’s not forget that Charles put up over 1,900 total yards in 2010.  I had Charles ranked as my number three overall player in 2011 and he of course destroyed several of my redraft money teams.  He’s now a bargain.  Getting him for a questionable WR and a rookie is a steal.

3.)  My team keeps ending up in the middle of the pack in my salary cap league.  I’ve been offered Cam Newton, Mike Wallace and a 2013 first for Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener.  Leaning toward passing on the deal because I’m happy with Eli as my QB1 and I like both of my prospects. Greg in Lemont, IL

I really hope you’ve already accepted this deal.  This is one of the most ridiculous examples of rookie fever I’ve seen this off-season. 

I’m very high on both Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener.  Luck has a very good chance of becoming a top-6 fantasy QB for years to come.  Fleener looks like a decent low end TE1 with upside.  That’s great.

On the other side of this deal, is a haul of value that rarely is traded under any circumstances let alone for two players who have never set foot on an NFL field. 

Since there really isn’t much to say about this trade – I’ll say this:  Readers, please stop trading away proven veteran players for prospects.  And more importantly, please join the DLF Forum so that you can run trades like this by the most knowledgeable dynasty community on the Internet. 

4.) I have the ability to hold a rookie for three years without putting him on contract.  Tannehill is of course everyone’s number three QB, but who do you like after that?  Is anyone worth my rookie stash?  Can we believe Elway on Osweiler?  Midway Monsters in Illinois

You’re certainly right that Luck, RGIII and Tannehill are the top three in this bunch.  The first two will be gone in the top six of 99% of rookie drafts and Tannehill is going in the second round of nearly all drafts. 

The clear cut QB4 for me is Brandon Weeden.  He’s realistically the only other quarterback who can earn an immediate starting job.  That alone has to be enough to push him way up the board.  Like Tannehill, he should go in the second round of rookie drafts. 

After Weeden, the drop is rather steep.  Here would be my choices and why:

  • Ryan Lindley – I like his skill set and I think he has a reasonable chance to start sooner rather than later.  The competition in Arizona is suspect at best.  (Third round pick)
  • Russell Wilson – Yeah he’s undersized and all, but he’s a great kid with leadership and skills.  If he was only a few inches taller . . . (Fourth round pick)
  • The rest should all go undrafted in my opinion.  In order:  Brock Osweiler,  Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, and if you need to go further you may want to find a new hobby.  (Note: The sneaky stash here is Foles.  Philly has a nice track record of creating buzz around it’s back up quarterbacks and dynasty owners have cashed in on guys like Kevin Kolb in the past.)

This was actually a pretty nice quarterback class.  The problem, unlike last year, is a lot of them went to really terrible situations like being behind Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, and RGIIII

Bonus tip:  If you are looking for a quarterback to put on the end of your roster purely for future trade value, see if Brian Hoyer happens to be on your waiver wire.  Hoyer is a double threat to be valuable – first if Brady goes down he’s the likely starter, but more importantly he’s a UFA in 2012.  I can easily see how Hoyer is the next Matt Cassel or Kevin Kolb type.

5.) There’s a school of thought out there that the third year for wide receivers tends to be a breakout year for some. With that in mind who are some third year receivers to keep an eye on (other than Brown, Cruz, and Bryant)?  Ashley in Denton, TX

I don’t buy in to most of the “schools of thought” like third year WRs, rookie QBs like TEs or players play better in contract years.  Most of the time the stats prove these adages wrong and proponents just selectively find examples to prove their point.

There are still some good third year WRs to be excited about.  Options I’d look at:

  • Demaryius Thomas:  Surprised he didn’t make your list of exceptions from the question.  I believe he will end up as the highest scoring third year WR in the NFL.
  • Tampa Bay Mike Williams:  I’ve never seen a young player fall so quickly in the dynasty community.  I’ve seen him traded for slightly more than a bag of Cheetos.  He is a very nice buy low.  I like that the pressure should be off with Vincent Jackson on the other side.
  • Eric Decker:  While some say he’s the WR to own in DEN, I don’t agree with that.  Still, he’s going to have tremendous value with Peyton Manning.  I think he has a better than even chance of ending up in the top-20 in PPR leagues. 
  • Jacoby Ford:  Oakland is crowded and he’s probably getting crowded out, but he’s worth rostering. 
  • Others to consider:  Golden Tate, Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders

If you’re a premium content member and want a more thorough breakdown of the third year wide receivers from last year, as well as an extensive look at the group for the upcoming season, check out the article here.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Boomer
10 years ago

RE 1. The only thing I disagree with is that this might be a great opportunity to catch someone napping on 2013 value. While the pick value is low, you have the chance to catch an owner who (unknowingly) thinks next years class will be as good as this years. That’s unlikely. Outside of Barkley, Robert Woods, and Lattimore there isn’t much there like we’ve seen in years past.

ggeorge
Reply to  Boomer
10 years ago

A lot could change between now and the end of the next college season. Luckily, these things are far from static!

Amoo
Reply to  Boomer
10 years ago

No Keenan Allen? Love me some Keenan Allen.

Brian
Reply to  Amoo
10 years ago

Knile Davis will be in next years class too.

robertdhenley
10 years ago

the tampa mike comment about quickest fall in dynasty, i think eddie royal is right up there with him

the #3 question, i can see why you are always in the middle of the pack, you better hope that guy didnt sober up and retract that offer, cause he had to be drunk

questiom #4, i would think that in your case osweiler would be someone i would look at

SJ
10 years ago

RE: #4
I actually like R.Wilson as a bit of a late roster flier QB. Hes talented, and as we all know hindered by his height. I think thats somewhat overcritical of a very successful college QB that has a good of chance of any of the 4-7 rookie qb’s this year to succeed.

A few reasons are: 1) his aforementioned talent, 2) he’s not blocked significantly for playing time in year 2 or year 3 – lets not forget that SEA wasnt extremely adamant (IE: overpaying; in a rush to sign) in acquiring Flynn, and Jackson is expected to be gone leaving Wilson the change to be the top backup. 3) Wilson was hand-picked by this coaching staff, so at least he has the interest of the coaches to do well. 4) No pressure to mature/start right away. Let Flynn start in the immediate future, and, depending on your opinion of Flynn as SEA’s starting QB, Wilson has a real shot of either filling in for him for injury this season, and maybe even taking over for him in a year or two.

Add all those things together and to me you have a very quiet and very good back-end rosterable QB with upside.

If Flynn was more of a lock as a future stud QB, I feel that would be the best argument against Wilson here. But if your not that high on Flynn, Wilson’s your late rookie QB to target.

SJ
10 years ago

RE: #5

Is it just me or are D.Thomas & Decker at the point of overvalued/over-drafted at this point? Sure they were great guys to get when Manning signed – for the obvious reasons – but that cats out of the bag. Now, they’re going as high WR2’s (or low WR1’s in Thomas’ case).

Are we forgetting that both of their values (I guess you can include Tamme in there as well) hinge on a QB coming off of major reconstructive surgery? I’m not saying that Manning will miss the year again, but he’s got to be considered questionable to make it though all 16 games, right? And their backup is a rookie? Hmmm, something doesn’t feel right about spending so much on WR’s that have a shot of losing so much value on a QB change, that in all fairness, could happen this year. And given D.Thomas has an injury history of his own to deal with, at what point do we say these guys are more hype than undervalued?

I like them to a degree, but to me it seems like we’ve reached that point, and may be able to turn them for more reliable talent. Any thoughts?

Reply to  SJ
10 years ago

D. Thomas produced at a very high level (Calvin Johnson type level) with Tebow at QB and Decker was a WR3 in his 2nd yr with Orton/Tebow at QB…enough said

StevieMo
10 years ago

Spot on, Tim, particularly the aspect of trading away proven and productive fantasy veterans over relative crapshoot rookies like Doug Martin, Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd and David Wilson.

The chances are, of these four, one (flip a coin) will be an impact fantasy baller, one or two will be solid but not spectacular guys and the other one or two will be fantasy busts. At best it’s about 50/50 as to whether first round NFL skill position players pan out at all.

As compared to players who have proven themselves at the NFL level, it’s a huge gamble to trade for hope in place of tangible production.

Having said that, I’ve played dynasty for 25 years and am huge on Andrew Luck, as I was with Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson when they came out. Of course there are exceptions to the rule. If you can get Luck for anything close to a reasonable price, I’d do it in a heartbeat. He’s P. Manning with wheels, brilliant, with heart, and a guy who will give you 100% every day in every way for his entire career. I would overpay to get him, and enjoy that fruit for the next 14 years. He’s a guy to build around.

witdog67
Reply to  StevieMo
10 years ago

Agreed! I love rookie hype and early/mid draft pick talent, BUT there is no substitute for veteran peace of mind. Young veterans even better! Unless your team is stacked and deep, don’t bother playing rookie roulette, let another sucker give you starters for hype and hope.

witdog67
10 years ago

TAKE THOSE TRADES!!!!! I’m a notorious trade-o-holic, but they look too good to be true to everybody. The Jamaal Charles one is a no-brainer, especially with only situation-questionable RB’s Blount and Stewart. The Newton/Luck deal with a 1st
+ Wallace/Fleener kicker is a little closer, but without the 1st it’s probably still a good deal. Cam is hot, I don’t have him or a dog in this hunt, but IF Luck equals his point outputs in the next year or 2, I’d be mildly surprised and his owners thrilled! In the long run, they are both as good as it gets in fantasy. Then it’s Wallace for Fleener? DUH.

I traded got Charles and Wallace for DMC,M.Bush, and Little a few weeks ago. What do you all think about that deal? Other RB’s=Mathews,Best,Leshoure,Tolbert. Other WR’s=AJ,Julio,Austin,Marshall,Crabtree. Crazy that I thought of Charles as the most durable RB of Mathews,DMC, and him?

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  witdog67
10 years ago

I like that deal for you…If Forte gets back on the field.

witdog67
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

Thanks for the feedback (assuming “forte”=charles). Funny, but he had AP & Forte already, so Bush had value to him “just in case” all those injury comebacks don’t work out. So I pounced.

He insisted on Little, which was hard to give up, but I had to do it because he’s still young and basically unknown quantity (like a rookie with a sneak peak). I got value from surplus Bush (he’s29). So to me it was Charles & Wallace for DMC? Why Not?!!!

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  witdog67
10 years ago

Like I said, I like the deal for you. I am a Little owner myself, so I understand your reluctance to trade him.

Matt
10 years ago

DHB is way better than Moore, way better, in my opinion.

meanmachine
10 years ago

I keep looking for credible evidence the D. Moore has passed DHB on the depth chart and CAN’T FIND it anywhere…

Is this just wishful thinking on the part of some D. Moore owners; kinda like Dorthy clicking her heels.

What gives?

Alan Bauerle
10 years ago

The Contra Costa Times’ Steve Corkran “fully expects” Darrius Heyward-Bey to break out with his first 1,000-yard season in 2012.
Corkran has done a 180 on his DHB prediction from February after the Raiders failed to address the position in free agency. We noticed tangible improvement in Heyward-Bey’s hands, route running, and run-after-catch explosion down the stretch. He closed out the season as a top-10 fantasy receiver over the final five games, averaging 5.8 receptions and 91.2 yards. Corkran also believes Carson Palmer will be “much, much better” and Denarius Moore will “live up to the hype” this season, leaving Jacoby Ford as the third option in the passing game. Source: Steve Corkran on Twitter:

I also believe DHB will be a low end wr1. He never had a decent qb. He does now n it showed the end of last season. Moore will be double teamed more. Just my 2 cents

Ken Widerka
Reply to  Alan Bauerle
10 years ago

Finally, the hype around Moore is over the top. I too think DHB is the #1 guy in Oakland and he looked it last year and I expect better things this year.

10 years ago

not really sure who the #1 wr in oakland will be this year. yeas i had heyward-bey down the stretch last year and he did help me big. he seems to be turning the corner, and with the maturity of palmer, it sure should rub off on him. moore has all the upside in the world. he reminds me of a young mike wallace, and considering wallace is’nt that old, that says a lot? personally i think they need each other and jacoby ford to make that offense productive with palmer. add in some production from the te spot, and a healthy DMC????? raiders could be pretty good. but again i’d say i’d take either one on my squad this year if that offense clicks.

Mercenaries
10 years ago

With all of the talent on offense in Oakland, and the fact that Carson Palmer is not that young, what is the dynasty outlook for Terrell Pryor? Word is that he’s been working his tail off to improve his skills as a QB. Is he someone worth stashing for a few years?

Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

I have AJ Green.

Would you guys do AJ for Trent Richardson and Kendall Hunter?

Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

it seems like an “ok” trade, but so much of a trade like this would depend on who else you had at wr and would losing aj weakin your wr corp. the same would be on the flip side as to who else you have at rb. if you have 2 solid rb starters, green maybe more valuable? you want your best talent on the field not on the bench. we start 2 rbs 3 wrs. i have mcfadden and mathews at rb. had calvin, welker, and wallace at wr. i was offered the 1.01 pick for my 1.09 pick and wallace. i decided that the injury situation with mcfadden and mathews was to great to pass on landing a guy like trent to have for years down the road. the contract situation with wallace also helped my decision. some say it was a bad trade, some say it was huge. i thought it worked for me because i thought it would be easier to replace wallace with my wr. corp already, then try to replace one of my rbs. trent may end up a starter? he will be as his second year comes around? secret of the deal in my opinion…..always weigh out the consequences first. if it fits you, take it.

Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

by the way i’m not really high on hunter considering the 49ers signed jacobs and drafted the james kid. why would they if they are high on him?

Alan Bauerle
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

Sensei no I wouldn’t.. Greens gonna have some of the heat off him now w Sanu and company starting. The only way I would is if you are weak at rb and stocked at wr. What’s your roster look like?

witdog67
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

Don’t trade AJ for anything! Well maybe Ray Rice, McCoy, or AP. But, TRich’s value will plummet once he starts playing games. He will be great, but rookies and draft picks are so much hype! The Browns are no fantasy point factory either. If he puts up 60-75yds in the first few games and the Browns look ugly, then you will hate yourself. Elite WR’s are hard to come by.

I like Hunter, he looks good! BUT they have way to much of a team concept going on in SF. This year, Jacobs and Gore block his TD’s. Next year, let’s say they are both gone and Hunter is the starter. Not likely. Even if it were to happen, wouldn’t they get more guys in like this year with James and Jacobs? Too confusing to assign any real value to Hunter, other than speculative or handcuff.

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  witdog67
10 years ago

Thanks so much for the opinions, guys.

Okay, so I am now targeting another Kendall.

AJ for TRich and Kendall Wright? Forget about rosters.

Dynasty builder
10 years ago

Ok, 4th year in my dynasty league (12 team, non-PPR, 1 QB, 2RB+Flex, 3 WR, 1 TE, D/ST, K): after inheriting a stinker of a team, good draft/waiver wire picks, winning the championship and then a sharp decline into geriatric-ville…I am in my 2nd rebuilding year. I’ve had to recover from a couple bad RB and TE choices, but here is my current roster. I have this year’s 1.02 pick. Anything you absolutely hate (aside from having both SEA TEs…) or absolutely like?

QBs
Matt Flynn, Sea
Peyton Manning, Den
Mark Sanchez, NYJ
Brian Hoyer, NE
Joe Webb, Min

RUNNING BACKS
Frank Gore, SF
Darren Sproles, NO
Kendall Hunter, SF
Isaac Redman, Pit
Phillip Tanner, Dal
Jonathan Dwyer, Pit
Brandon Saine, GB

RECEIVERS
Pierre Garcon, Wsh
Demaryius Thomas, Den
Denarius Moore, Oak
Santana Moss, Wsh
Early Doucet, Ari
Earl Bennett, Chi
David Nelson, Buf
Dezmon Briscoe, TB
Preston Parker, TB
Kyle Williams, SF
Chastin West, Jac
Josh Morgan, Wsh
Danny Amendola, StL

TEs
Ed Dickson, Bal
Jordan Cameron, Cle
Zach Miller, Sea
Kellen Winslow, Sea

D/ST – Giants
K – Dan Bailey, Dal

witdog67
Reply to  Dynasty builder
10 years ago

Rebuilding Plan:

Trade, Trade, Trade!!!

QB: Manning after he plays a game and his value goes up. Flynn BEFORE he plays a game and his value goes down! Sanchez whenever, or keep him as long term backup. Plan on using 1.02 on Luck or RGIII.

RB: Your OK for now, Sproles, Gore/Hunter, Redman can get you through the season. I usually advocate Martin at 1.02, but you need a long term QB, and this is the year for them! If TRich is there, take him over QB’s, but only if you have acquired a solid QB through other trades.

WR: Like the starting 3, they are on the upswing. The rest should be packaged into any trade that anyone will take. They are all easily replaceable. Moss,Bennett,Amendola are OK, but you won’t win a title with them in the lineup.

TE: Pray that Fleener makes the 2nd round of your draft, or try to trade up to 1.08-1.10 for him. Throw all those WR’s at them with your 2nd rounder!

Overall: I would not hesitate to shop Manning, Gore/Hunter, Moss, Winslow/Miller if they bring back any younger replacements. I’d trade them all together for a young stud RB in a second! Also, somebody has to have a decent backup QB to target, or needs Manning for a playoff run, if you get a Cutler better for Manning+ junk, then you could take TRich or Martin?

The first trade will open up others. Good luck!

Jeff
10 years ago

12 team Standard scoring PPR 25 man roster league. I was fortunate to trade my 2.04 for Titus Young earlier to help my WR depth: J. Jones, K. Britt, R. Meachum, M. Crabtree, DHB, L. Robinson, B. Lafell, L. Hankerson, traded 3.04 for S. Moss, B. Edwards, And Young. QB: C. Kap., K. Kolb, E. Manning RB: Ridley, Vereen, Addai, Ingram, Thomas, Ivory, McKnight, and Royster. I need TE help any ideas? And I still have the 2.04 this year.

witdog67
Reply to  Jeff
10 years ago

Do you have a 1st rounder? You’re living dangerously at RB too. You have some decent WR assets. Group them with the 2.03 to get high enough to grab Fleener (1.08-1.10). Group WR’s with Royster/Thomas/McKnight to the respective handcuff owners for whatever you can get at RB or TE if no Fleener. Patriots RB is the same. You only need the top 5 WR, and you’ve got 7 or 8 valuable ones. Unfortunately, you need to just target people with bad WR situations or good RB/TE situations to trade with, and throw a lot of WR’s at them as sweeteners, along with your RB/TE to upgrade each spot. ONLY target above average starters, otherwise your treading water, but if 1 becomes available, there’s no such thing as overpaying!

Jeff
10 years ago

Sry mean 2.03 not 2.04

Jeff
10 years ago

No 1 st rounder this year. Did a lot of trading to get to this point. I have been trying to trade britt and had one guy commit to a reasonable offer including a TE: I was giving britt for 2.07, T. Gonz., and 2013 1 st?

witdog67
Reply to  Jeff
10 years ago

I wouldn’t do it. Your on the right path there, but Gonzalez is toooo old and Britt is too good. He’s the 1 puzzle piece to hold onto, to go all the way someday, you’ll need elite talent. Be the guy giving away the old-timers and draft picks, not the other way around.

This year’s playoff WR corps is: Britt/Crabtree/DHB/Meachem/Jones. Tell him you’ll give him Hankerson or LaFell or others for Gonzalez, and ONLY because you don’t need so many WR’s have an irrational man crush on Tony….. otherwise forget it. I think he’d be crazy to pass on your WR’s with Gonzalez near retirement, his production is average. I know he already has a replacement TE, so he should be desperate to SELL. Give him 2 or 3 or 4WR’s, let him pick which! For the 1st next year (flatter him that it is a late pick), the 2.07 and Tony. You’ve got him by the short and curleys! Heck half of your bench WR’s would go in the middle late 1st round this year if they were in it, and people weren’t so obsessed with picks.

witdog67
Reply to  witdog67
10 years ago

correction: “obsessed with rookies” not picks.

Seriously, most rookie WR’s taken in the 1st round (your guys were) end up worthless on the trade market a year later! Even if they show promise but no stats yet. Crazy. You’ve got a couple of them that look good in the uniforms, are fast, and are possibly breaking out this year, they are worth something, they have a head start on next year’s class after all!

Jim Drake
10 years ago

Do you think there is any value in Griff Whalen for the colts or will he be lucky to make the roster?

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