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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  What’s the suggested investment in Jonathan Stewart?  I’m thinking of acquiring him because he’s in a contract year and could end up in a favorable situation in 2013.  Even though Newton gets the goal line carries, J-Stew is still a valuable fantasy asset, right?Will from Long Island

To J-Stew or not J-Stew that is the question – there are basically three schools of thought on Stewart.

Group A: “To heck with him”

These are the people who drafted him as a rookie or traded for him during his second or third year in the league.  Frustrated by his lack of a breakout, they’ve washed their hands of Mr. Stewart.

Group B: “He’s a value”

These are the people who just traded for him during this off-season.  They got very, very excited when it was rumored he was on the trade block.  When that didn’t work out, people from Group A said, “I told you so.”  Now the Group B folks are satisfied to sit back and wait for the “inevitable” better situation in 2013.  Group A is lurking in the shadows waiting to laugh at them when that doesn’t come to fruition.

Rest of the World: “Not interested”

These are the people on the sidelines who have never owned him and never will because they think the whole J-Stew soap opera is a fantasy joke.  They pride themselves on not picking risky players that bust and they see the prices once paid for J-Stew as justification for investing in lower risk/lower return options.

Enough psychology.  What’s J.Stew really worth and should you go after him?

I’ll come clean – I’m in group B and I think he’s a value . I traded for him this offseason and I tried to resist the temptation to get excited about the trade rumors.  I wasn’t surprised (though maybe a little disappointed), when he wasn’t traded.

Note: I gave the 1.02/Matt Flynn and got the 1.05/J.Stew.

It’s time to buy on Stewart.  In the past, he was overpriced and sometimes heavily so.  It’s hard to gauge what you will have to offer up right now to get him.  If he’s being held by a Group A owner as a top-six first round pick, will likely get a quick accept.  If he’s on a Group B guy’s team, you will probably need to make that the 1.02 or 1.03.  You could also try to deal him for one of the sexy players right now like Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown or Jordy Nelson.

I’m a buyer for a few reasons.

First, I don’t think Newton’s goal line carries have much impact on Stewart.  He had five total TDs last year (with Newton) and three the year before (without Newton).  The biggest single factor about Stewart’s production is DeAngelo William’s health.  D-Will played every game in 2011, so J-Stew’s upside took a hit.

Second, Stewart is productive already.  He finished as the RB18 in PPR last year, thus making him a legit RB2.  I see no reason to think he won’t repeat those numbers.  He finished the season tied with Ahmad Bradshaw for fantasy points.  People seem to be fine with Bradshaw as a RB2.

And, of course, the big reason to buy J-Stew is the hope of greener pastures in 2013.  This is the worst reason to buy him, but the most fun reason as well.  What could be more fun than checking the Internet seven times a day when free agency starts up to see if Stewart is going to Cincinnati to replace BJGE or if he is going to Tampa to be in a time share with Doug Martin?  Stewart is either going to become the lead back somewhere in 2013 or he’s going to destroy the fantasy value of some other running back.  No telling which it will be, but I want a piece of that action.

2.)  I’m a huge believer in Trent Richardson and I’ve been offered the 1.01 for Hakeem Nicks straight up.  What do you think?  Also how do you rank Alshon Jeffery, Isaiah Pead, Coby Fleener, Ronnie Hillman and Stephen Hill?  Tim in Clearwater, FLA

In any other year, the answer would be a resounding no.  Not this one.  I’d have no problem with someone deciding to trade Hakeem Nicks for the 1.01.  And I’d have no problem with the other owner’s decision to offer that deal.  It’s a serious risk for the side that is getting Trent Richardson because we haven’t seen him play a single down.  Yet, it could well be a risk worth taking.

Think of it this way – right now, Nicks is probably worth a tad less than guys like Matt Forte and Ryan Mathews.  So, all that needs to happen for this deal to work out is that Richardson gets to that level in a year or two.  Seems like a reasonable bet to me.

As to the second part of your question, I like to rank rookies in tiers and then break ties with team need.  Here’s the way I would rank the players you list:

Top Tier

Coby Fleener, Stephen Hill.  Fleener is my man-crush for 2012.  I see a player with a low bust potential and I like that in the late first or early second of a rookie draft.

Second Tier

Alshon Jeffery.  Like Lamar Miller, I think he’s been bashed down too much.  He deserved to fall, but I think he’s now undervalued.  This is a risky pick, but one that could pay off.

Third Tier

Isaiah Pead, Ronnie Hillman.  I’m not excited about either running back.  Plus, I think Pead is getting over-drafted fairly regularly. Note: I believe I’m in the minority in my point of view on these players.

You asked for my ranks – those are my ranks.

3.) I’ve been offered the Dallas backfield and Carson Palmer for the 1.02, LeGarrette Blount and Delone Carter.  Is it worth it? Bryan from Saginaw, MI

Assuming this isn’t a 2QB league and that Trent Richardson is going 1.01, yes this is worth it.  Frankly, I think that DeMarco Murray alone would be worth that price.  The fact that you are getting Felix Jones and Philip Tanner (I guess) in the deal is icing on the cake.  Murray is probably overvalued and I’m not especially high on him, but his market value is solid right now.

My gut feeling on Murray is that he is DMC-light.  What I mean by that is he can win you games when healthy and handcuff you because he will be gimpy.  Owners of DMC have a huge advantage when he is in the lineup.  The numbers he puts up are staggering.  I see a lot of the same risk/reward in Murray.  Murray averaged a very respectable 5.5 YPC on enough carries to make that statistically significant.  Dallas has also begun to understand that he is a legit threat in the passing game.

I traded for Murray on my most serious contender this year because I wanted another option at RB2 behind Forte.  I have a sinking suspicion that this decision will either make or break my season.

4.) I’m looking for a WR1, but I don’t want to pay the price for a proven one.  Which WR ranked 19-36 by DLF has the best chance at being a number one WR for 2012?  Rich in Redding, CA

I love this question, thanks for submitting it.  It captures the essence of what makes fantasy fun.

While I don’t currently rank for DLF, my assessment is that my colleagues have ranked for a “balanced team.” There are top ten players that will likely not produce top ten numbers (e.g. AJ Green) and there are top ten players that a rebuilding team should probably avoid (e.g. Andre Johnson).  So, these ranks are for contending teams that are looking to assemble rosters with maximum balance and value.

That means there are absolutely some receivers in the 19 to 36 range who can put up WR1 numbers for 2012.  My guess based on your question is that you are a serious contender and you are looking for a receiver to push you over the top.  I’m all for that type of aggressive move.

In looking at the ranks, these are the guys I think could fit the bill for you and why:

Steve Smith (CAR)

Why couldn’t he put up top-12 numbers?  He was the WR7 in 2011.  I see no reason that he can’t repeat his performance, or maybe even top it.

Dwayne Bowe

I think he’s the most underrated receiver in dynasty.  I’ve never understood it.  Ok, so 2009 was a bust, but look at his stats outside of that year – you’re going to get 75 catches and 1,000 yards.  All you need for him to break in to the top-12 is about seven touchdowns.  That’s not unrealistic.

Marques Colston

See Steve Smith above.  If Colston stays healthy, he’ll produce top-12 numbers with ease.  I probably should have him above Bowe, but the knee stuff has begun to weigh on me a little, but just a little.

Miles Austin

You can’t ignore him.  The good news with him is that his price tag is pushed down in most leagues because of peoples’ fixation on Dez Bryant.

Honorable Mentions – Stevie Styles (Johnson) and Tampa Mike

I’d test the market for the top three on my list and see which one is the best bargain

5.)  I’m in a ten team league that has a rookie only draft.  I want to trade out of my 1.09 for a future first because I feel I’m set right now.  What should I expect in return – just a future first or a little more?  Craig in Minnesota

First off, if you can find a roster spot for a 2012 rookie I think you should.  In my opinion, this is the deepest draft class since 2009.  When I say it’s deep, I mean there are players who have a reasonable chance of having meaningful dynasty impact well in to the second round.  Rookies take time to acclimate to the league before they produce fantasy results.  The best time to be reloading with quality talent is when you don’t need it.

If you want to trade out of the 1.09 because the players you particularly liked are already gone, that’s fine.  My advice would be to offer up the 1.09 for a future first and a 2012 second.  That’s a reasonable deal on value and this draft class will have quality players throughout the second round in a ten team league.

Should you decide to trade out of this draft all together, I’d want more than just a future first.  On one hand, the 1.09 is almost the worst first in a ten team league, but value of the pick being right now is significant.  And while I haven’t done all my homework yet, I don’t much like the way 2013 is shaping up for rookie drafts.  I’m a seller on my 2013 first round picks right now.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Johnny Vegas
10 years ago

I traded #9 and #20 plus 1st and 2nd from middle of the pack team in 2013 for Fritz..
It’s a 10 man dynasty league with a 26 man roster.. I know I broke the bank but hoping Fritz can give me 3 stud years and put me over the top before I dump him for a future 1st..
Had won two years ago but dumped , Austin. S Smith, A Brown, Baby TO, Colston, Ocho Cinco the day he signed with NE, Gates and Romo since then.. In the last 12 months ive added Cam. Julio, AJ Green, Percy, Grahm and have the #1 and #10 this year.. My RBs let me down last year (AP-CJ2K) so I’m leaning heavy towards T Rich at #1..
Ryan is my backup QB and really have nobody to back up AP and CJ2K so feel T Rich is a must if I’m to compete for the gold this year. Hate to pass on Luck as he’s the best QB I’ve scouted in years if not ever.. Thinking of breaking the bank for pick #2 taking T Rich and Luck at #1-2 and crossing my fingers I can get Fleener at #10 to pair with Luck..
I was thinking Ryan, Harvin and my 1st in 2013 and 2014 for Luck..
In general my pick is in the #8-10 range.

Do you think I’m over paying for Luck?
I am sitting pretty with picks the next 2 years with four 1st in 2013 and three 1st in 2014..

amoo
Reply to  Johnny Vegas
10 years ago

These type of questions belong in the forum. You should join.

strim281
Reply to  Johnny Vegas
10 years ago

I think that is way too much for Luck. Take out Harvin and you are right there I think.

mwb27
10 years ago

Re/ JStew. Right now have an offer that would net me Andre Johnson & a 2013 3rd rounder in return for JStew & a 2013 1st rounder (will be very late in all likelihood).

Only problem is I’m already set at WR and would be thin at RB (would be starting Foster & BJGE) if I let go of JStew.

Interested to hear some thoughts/advice.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  mwb27
10 years ago

I prefer the Stewart side, to be honest.

I own Andre and Stewart, and while I guess I value Andre more than Stewart, I wouldn’t give up a first to upgrade.

mwb27
Reply to  Cyrus Miller
10 years ago

Appreciate the response. I’d have to agree.

And if I’m being honest with myself, there are 2 to 3 teams that are, on paper, better than mine. I’d need to come through this season with great health and a couple guys to overachieve to have a legit shot at the title.

So to mortgage my future (youth of JStew plus a top-12 pick) for the immediate production increase from AJ just doesn’t make a ton of sense.

Scott
Reply to  Cyrus Miller
10 years ago

I wouldn’t do that deal at all. Let me preface this by saying, I’m not a big fan for Andre Johnson in dynasty. I think he is a big injury risk. Furthermore, once he gets injured, it takes him forever to get back on the field. I know others really like him, but not me. In my mind, you are giving up the better dynasty asset in JStew, plus a first round pick, and all you get back is a third round pick plus an injury prone, aging WR. Lastly, the Houston offense goes through Foster/Tate now, and I think AJ’s glory years are in the past, IMO.

Brian W.
Reply to  Scott
10 years ago

I own Andre, and thank him for his multiple Superbowl contributions to my team. I got him in our start up draft in the 5th round! I’m looking to deal him for a RB now too.

However, I think he plays for 3 more years, plenty of missed games though. Stewart is 25, that gives him 4 maybe 5 years? He’s no stranger to the trainer’s room either. I subtract 4 years off of elite WR’s to compare to a RB, this case says Stewart is ONLY 1 year younger.

But, it depends on the rest of your team. Andre is the type that can get you to the playoffs with consistency and blow up to win you a bog game. Stewart? Doubtful.

Boomer
10 years ago

RE: Q4. Demaryious Thomas.

Ron Williams
10 years ago

Hey, Tim… I have been trying to shop around Vick. I know his value is lower now than it will be during the season (if he can stay healthy for a few weeks), but I had just as difficult of a time in another league last season. I did get one intriguing offer. My league is IDP heavy PPR, but offers 1.5 ppr for TE’s. I currently have Fred Davis and Finley. With the ability to start up to 3 TE’s (with flex options) I had been targeting some of the younger TE’s in the league who I felt had some upside. I was recently approached by the Jared Cook owner and offered Cook for Vick straight up. I like Cook, but I felt like that just wasn’t enough value for Vick. It seems like a catch 22. I really like Cook and think that he has a lot of potential this year. I have Luck and Freeman on my team so Vick seems expendable. Do I make the trade and get a young TE that I like, even though the value may not be there? Or do I ride Vick into the sunset and hope to get another year or two out of him until Luck becomes viable?

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  Ron Williams
10 years ago

Don’t do this trade!

Cook is a perpetual tease. While he might be really good, he hasn’t put it on the field and they just drafted another TE.

Vick is a stud when healthy. If you wait until the season, you will get a lot more for Vick. Potentially, if Cook has a slow first few weeks, you can also get him for cheap.

If you absolutely have to have Cook, try something else to trade for him. They added Wright and Britt is back, so there are other options in the passing game ahead of Cook.

Scott
Reply to  Ron Williams
10 years ago

No way Cook equals value for Vick. Not even close. Plus, the Titans traded up to grab Taylor Thompson, and he might end up taking Cook’s job in 1-2 years. I like Cook’s talent, but not at that price. If you really want Cook, you could ask for a first round pick in 2013 and Cook. Or, target Kyle Rudolph, who I think could really blossom this year, especially with Ponder starting.

Brian W.
Reply to  Scott
10 years ago

Agreed. You won’t miss the boat on Cook. I like him, but the chances of him becoming a Gates-style player that pushes your team over the top are slim. Other talent is out there. Maybe if they give you a couple future 1st rounders, but still loco?

Wait for a QB injury or bye week, playoff run guys to ante up for Vick during the season.

tebow
10 years ago

i have a drop to make and i going between downtown donald brown and steven ridley. i think ridley is a better player but i think brown might get more touches. its driving me crazy!lol

Ryan Krcil
Reply to  tebow
10 years ago

You have to drop Donald Brown here in my mind. Ridley at least as shown something and Ridley is the starter (at least at this point)

Scott
Reply to  tebow
10 years ago

Agreed, drop Brown. I know Belichick is a headache for RBs, but Donald Brown has been a disappointment since entering the NFL. There is a new regime, which means Donald is on a short leash. The Colts Oline is crappy at run blocking. Luck will be a pass-first QB, and Brown might end up getting the hook pronto. Brown might end up having marginal value for one year, then fade away. At least Ridley has a shot at being the next BJGE, which isn’t great, but it’s at least a decent RB2.

tebow
Reply to  Scott
10 years ago

thanks man i have been going back and forth i was worried about ridley because of shane v. who was picked high in the 2nd round and looked good in the game he played where brown has little comp for touches and they might be forced to use him because they dont have anyone better. im glad there r people that give advice i need it at the moment!

Chris R.
10 years ago

I own J-Stew and while it’s not a big deal stashing him behind Adrian Peterson and Lesean McCoy, we can start 3 RB’s as a flex so I’m going all in to try and move him for Trent Richardson off a rebuilding team.

Starting with J-Stew, Evan Royster, 2013 1st rounder(9-12 likely), 2.11, and 3.11

I’m almost certain I’ll need to add someone else to the mix, but for me it’s worth it because we don’t know how this situation will play out.

He could end up dominating carries in Cincy, or back in Car again. There is no dead set plan that he’s for sure going to FA, it’s likely but you just don’t know. I’d only trade for him if it was a team I could stash him, not expect him to be my RB2 all season.

Scott
Reply to  Chris R.
10 years ago

Wow, that’s a lot to give up for TRich. I’d keep JStew, Royster, and your picks, IMO. But then again, I’m not sold on TRich being the next AP.

Brian W.
Reply to  Scott
10 years ago

I’d do it! Why not go for the superstars? You have to gamble a little. Plus, Stewart just doesn’t do it for me. You literally have to talk yourself into his value, while TR maybe awesome! If not, he’s a decent #2RB (you can’t have too many RB’s).

Royster is a flyer, and the picks are even less valuable. So DO IT!!! The upside is on your end. Always accumulate elite talent at any cost, depth is found easily enough later.

Scott
10 years ago

Hey, Tim.

Nice mail bag as usual!

You got a fantastic deal on JStew. To trade him for Matt Flynn/1.02 for JStew/1.05 is robbery, IMO. I think Matt Flynn is really overrated right now. Flynn hasn’t proven much at the NFL level, except he is a great caddie for the best QB and offensive system on the planet. We’ve all learned from Kolb and Cassel that the grass is greener where the dogs are crapping. I think Flynn is at best a QB2, or a total flop like Kolb. To make it even better, you might end up having a shot at RG3 or Luck at 1.05, and they are already better QB options than Flynn. Plus, you got an exciting young RB like JStew. I traded MJD/2.08 for JStew/1.12/4.12 in one league (Get Your Dynasty On in my sig), mainly because I wanted to get younger at RB. I also love JStew’s potential, so I’m in camp B. Nice job!

Brian W.
Reply to  Scott
10 years ago

The Matt Flynn/1.02 for JStew/1.05 is OK, if you don’t mind taking the scraps at 1.05 it’s pretty good. The draft is 5 deep, so why not I guess, if you want 1 of the QB’s/Martin/Blackmon at worst.

My problem is the obsession with Stewart. He had single digit points more often than not, has 6TD’s in 2 years. He’s 25, will be a 26 year old FA. He’ll always be an injury waiting to happen. His upside is that he’s a FA? Ask Michael Bush owners how that strategy works out.

Robert Scibetta
10 years ago

Can anybody tell me why I’m unable to log into the forum?
I’m logged in at the home page, but when I attempt to post a topic or reply, the site prompts me to log in; when I attempt to log in, my username or password is incorrect. I even tried to register again, but no luck. I sent a couple inquiries through “Contact Us”, but have received no response. Thanks.

Admin
Reply to  Robert Scibetta
10 years ago

Robert, sending you an email now. Didn’t see any contact us messages. Not sure what went wrong there, but we’ll get you fixed up. KM

Robert Scibetta
Reply to  Ken Moody
10 years ago

Thanks, Ken. Plugged in the email password & got right in. Is my forum password different from the password on my profile?

stephen wolkiewicz
10 years ago

Just got done reading ur column and u say your not too hot on 2013 prospects and you say like the middle of pack guys in this rookie draft. Who do you like in the 2013 draft ? And I’m in a 16 team league and I haven’t had a pick in top 12 last 3 years we have done this. Would it be a good idea to trade next years 1st to try and move up in 1st Rd this year

suchislife
10 years ago

Hello,

I have a pretty good offer on the table for D.Breese in 10 man true Dynasty league:

I give up: D.Breese

I get: M.Ryan, Julio Jones, and either S.Jackson or F.Jackson

This is a pretty sick offer but how do i trade D.Breese after one of his best years ever. I think Breese is 32, but does the M.Ryan youth and upside come close to matching D.Breese’s killer stats? and i can always trade Breese next year if i think the end is nigh.

My other QBs are J.Freeman, M.Flynn, and C.Kapernick

RBs are: R.Rice A.Foster & CJ Spiller(i’d almost jump to take F.Jackson but all these guys have a week 8 bye)

and I have the #5 overall pick so I could prossibly snag Luck or RGIII

Reply to  suchislife
10 years ago

Wow. I would take that deal in a heart beat. I traded Brees for Matt Ryan/1.11/2013 2nd round pick. If you can get Julio Jones, Ryan plus SJax or FJax, that’s a steal for you, IMO.

Brian W.
Reply to  Scott Peak
10 years ago

Sorry if this comes off as rude, but you got taken to the cleaners! Unless you hit the lottery with those draft picks, I guess. On 2nd thought, even IF you get starters there, longshot, you still got the short end. Ryan needs to be almost as good as Brees for a long time for the math to work on this one.

***I’m changing my name to “Why not win now?”

Brian W.
Reply to  suchislife
10 years ago

DON’T even think about it. With those RB’s and Brees, you should be in the playoffs without even fielding WR’s! If you have any type of production from TE and WR, you are as close to winning the title as you can get. Ryan is NOWHERE near Brees and never will be. Jacksons are fool’s gold, good for a year or 2, but they will be on the bench for you anyway. Julio is awesome, but just stick with your core 3 players and figure out how to augment them with WR’s and a TE….. it’s all you can do to get the best team out there.

Brees has 3 or 4 TOP years left, use that time to find a replacement (Freeman/Flynn may do it by then?), why rush him out the door? You’ll be sorry if you do. Julio will have to break every WR record in the books to make up the points over a average WR, that you lose dropping from Brees to Ryan.

In my league there’s a similar situation. 1 guy has Rodgers,McCoy,Rice and makes the playoffs every year with Bowe and trash (not even roster worthy) at WR and Daniels at TE.

Aaron
Reply to  Brian W.
10 years ago

Makes me feel better since I traded a lot of depth this offseason to get McCoy…I figure I have Rodgers and McCoy for the next 7 years if I want so my team will always be competitive. I also have Andre Johnson, Colston, and Demaryious Thomas at WR so I like where my team is and I think I can always replace depth, but superstars are hard to come by and I always would rather make a deal where I get the best player in the deal…

suchislife
Reply to  Brian W.
10 years ago

on a side note, i scored the most points in my league last year and didnt even make the playoffs

my wrs aren’t bad:

G.Jennings, A.Brown, M.Williams*TB), R.Meachem, E.Decker, D.Moore, T.Smith, J.Simpson, G.Little, B.Lafell

TEs:
F.Davis, K.Roudolph, E.Moore, O.Daniels

thanks for the comment, kinda what i was thinking

Pntgvn2399
10 years ago

Or Group C for J-Stew those of us who actually drafted him and are STILL waiting for him to get out of Carolina!!!!

Jeff Coffey
Reply to  Pntgvn2399
10 years ago

Yep, I’m a group C also. I drafted him as a rookie, let him sit on my practice squad for a while, now have him on my active roster at RB4 behind DMac, Forte, and Michael Bush. I was torqued last year when the Panthers re-signed Williams. Fortunately I have not had to rely on JStew yet (I had Tolbert and Gore last year), so it has not been terribly difficult to be patient. I think this is the last year of patience though, since I’m also having to show patience with Mark Ingram!

robert huber
10 years ago

I am in a 12 team keeper league, i am trying to optimize my WR for value and performance fo rthe next 3 years. I have the following WR’s on my roster
Mike Wallace (not keeping after this year due to salary cap)
Jordy Nelson
Vincent Jackson
Torrey Smith
Demarious Thomas
Denarious Moore
Titus Young
Leonard Hankerson
Randall Cobb

If i can get Kendal Wright, Michael Floyd or Justim Blacmon cheap i will but i doubt my others owners will let that happen.

So out of the following group of Tier2 WR’s which ones should i grab to replace which of my current WR’s? I am looking for upgrade, upside and I want to dominate my league in this category!

Alshon Jeffery
Marvin Jones
AJ Jenkins
Brian Quick
Greg Childs
Devan Wylie
Tommy Streeter
Stephen Hill
or is there someone else i should consider?

thank for your input!

robert huber
10 years ago

ps we start 3 WR’s and we have an auction draft with FA’s and rookies combined.

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