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Instant Analysis: Kellen Winslow traded to Seattle

Greg Schiano means business.

Kellen Winslow was traded from Tampa Bay to Seattle late last night in exchange for a late round draft pick. Winslow had apparently fallen out of favor with the new brass in Tampa after he chose not to work out with his teammates recently. More than anything, this sends a message to the rest of the organization that while the team is very young, they won’t be treated as if they have training wheels.

The Bucs moved quickly to replace Winslow by signing former Indianapolis tight end Dallas Clark.  The two moves create a dynasty ripple effect all the way from Florida to Washington.

Let’s take a look at the players involved:

Kellen Winslow, TE SEA

It’s awfully tough to see Winslow ever becoming a viable fantasy player again. After burning a bridge in Tampa Bay (much like he did in Cleveland), he gets a fresh start in Seattle. However, the Seahawks employ a run first offense and haven’t used the tight end much over the past couple of seasons. In addition, Seattle already has a viable option in Zach Miller and a serviceable one in Cameron Morrah.

Winslow had a decent season last year with 75 catches for 763 yards and two scores, but repeating those numbers in the Emerald City will be awful tough. Not only will he have to beat out Miller and Morrah for playing time, he’ll need the offense to be tweaked a bit to retain his value.

There’s little doubt that Winslow’s career will be shortened by his knee problems and his days as a possible TE1 in dynasty leagues are all but over. If you have him, you just have to cross your fingers and hope he’s good enough to be your TE2 and earn some spot starts for you.

On a side note, it will be interesting to see what kind of reception Winslow gets from the “12th Man” in Seattle. When he was in High School, he was all set to sign with the University of Washington to play football until his Dad stepped in and wouldn’t allow him to go to the Northwest. While it’s water under the bridge for most fans in Seattle, it is an interesting little side story.

Zach Miller, TE SEA

Can this guy every catch a break?

After signing a nice contract last season, Miller was nearly non-existent in the Seahawk offense, posting just 25 catches for 233 yards and no touchdowns. With Winslow in town, he has one more player to fend off for playing time.

While we like Miller’s upside a lot more in dynasty leagues, it’s hard to see him making a huge impact this season unless the quarterback play improves dramatically. The addition of Winslow is just one more obstacle for Miller to overcome to regain the value he once had in Oakland.

Matt Flynn, QB SEA

Getting more weapons on offense is never a bad thing. However, his focus right now is simply to hold off Tarvaris Jackson and Russell Wilson for the starting gig – while that’s expected, it’s not seeming like a foregone conclusion at the moment.

Dallas Clark, TE TB

After some thought he may simply retire, Clark has found himself a nice home in Tampa Bay. While this is great news for Clark, it needs to be held in check. After all, his skills looked to be deteriorating fairly rapidly last year and this is simply not the same player who posted a 100/1,106/10 line in 2009. Simply put, there’s a reason why he was still a free agent in late May.

In Tampa Bay, he’ll likely be used as a nice red zone and “over the middle” option. With Luke Stocker on board and improving nicely, it’s tough to see Clark making a huge impact. If you’re a contending team and need a backup tight end, Clark may be worth kicking the tires on, but I wouldn’t be running to the wire to pick him up.

Luke Stocker, TE TB

Stocker has been a popular dynasty league stash for some time now and this news is good for his value, regardless of Clark coming to town. While his short term value may be stunted a bit with Clark on the roster, there’s no doubt that’s a short-term hurdle based on Clark’s age. Keep an eye on Stocker this offseason to see if he can make some noise – there could be some minor sleeper value here.

Josh Freeman, QB TB

Freeman struggled mightily last season, but still had a good percentage of his yards go to Winslow. It will be interesting to see where those go now that he’s gone. Could Mike Williams re-emerge? Will Stocker or Clark step up? Time will tell, but Freeman needs to improve quickly and losing Winslow doesn’t help tremendously.

Keep it here at DLF for all the offseason news and analysis!

 

Ken Kelly
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NT
10 years ago

Wow you guys are scary fast.

smcguiga
10 years ago

Regarding Josh Freeman comment…..have you forgotten that Bucs picked up Vincent Jackson finally a legit WR1 in offseason….new coaching crew will bring Williams in line and I am not sold that Benn can’t become a decent 3rd option…..Freeman dropped 20 lbs and looks committed…..think last year was more about the breakdown in overall organization than Freeman’s fault but we will find out soon enough….I expect Freeman to have a much much better year actually

Bill G.
Reply to  Ken Kelly
10 years ago

Overall would you rather have Freeman or Bradford? I know they are both guys who had dissapointing years, but seem like bounce back candidates. Who do you believe will be the better dynasty qb this year and more importantly, overall.

Reply to  Bill G.
10 years ago

I have Bradford ranked fairly higher than Freeman but this year is make or break for him and I just don’t know that the Rams did enough to help him NOW. I expect Freeman will be better this year and my rankings may be changing soon on that front.

smcguiga
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
10 years ago

Bradford pro’s…smart very accurate, steven jackson as one of the great checkdowns Con’s- already gun shy and has happy feat in pocket from getting hit so much, not the strongest arm, seems brittle, and will more than likely have two rookie WR’s starting for him, not very athletic

Freeman pro’s- one of the better arms in the league(top 5 for sure)big athletic body that can take punishment and be able to run some in, should much improved weapons in Jackson and Martin Williams should rebound as well. intelligent seems committed this year.

Con’s- not nearly as accurate as needs to be and needs to clean up mechanics, needs to take a huge step forward reading D’s.

I think Freeman has a bigger upside both short term and long term. Bucs are going to be able to run the ball this year which should set up a lot of play action shots down the field….Rams still a few years away in a long term rebuilding mode and didn’t improve their O-line much……I don’t like Bradford much at all in the near term.

Mike Wendland
10 years ago

This should actually help Freeman a little bit, as several of his 2011 INTs came from forcing passes to Winslow who was often begging for the ball. Maybe this will help Freeman clear up his tunnel vision.

Nickdib
10 years ago

I have gronk, aaron hernandez, Kyle Rudolph, and winslow in a 10 team start 1-2 Te league. Non PPR. Since gronk and Hernandez obviously have the same bye, should I keep winslow or drop him in favor of a Mario fannin or jacquizz Rodgers?

Scott
Reply to  Nickdib
10 years ago

My advice: Run to the waiver wire, cut Winslow and pick up Quizz Rodgers. How is Quizz on waivers? That’s crazy.

Nickdib
Reply to  Scott
10 years ago

I guess in non-PPR no one thinks he can get enough touches or touchdowns to be successful, but thats probably what i’ll do

Ken Widerka
10 years ago

Freeman suffered mightily last year because he lost his 3rd doown back. Caddy helped Freeman tremendously. If Martin is as good as advertised, than I expect Freeman’s numbers to improve dramatically. I am not a VJax fan, but he is a definite upgrade.

Ken Widerka
10 years ago

down

Scott
10 years ago

I think Winslows value is in the tank. You guys laid it out pretty solidly, but I’m not as optimistic that that offense will get anything out of their TE’s (unless they are the latest copiers of that NE offense – who knows)

As a dynasty owner of K2 I think the best you can do now is “hold”. I guess we should have seen this coming though, he was pegged by most FF pundits that cus of his high salary and dimished skills, and new coaching change, that he was on the outs there. I personally thought he had another year left of 70 catch production. Which isnt great, but will get you buy if you dont wanna spend a lot for big time TE’s. He kind of reminded me of what an O.Daniels, T.Gonzalez would now get you at their stages of their careers. Noting amazing but enough to get you buy. The only problem is, that if you did see this coming this offseason, what could you have possibly gotten for him? A second rounder? Gonzalez/Daniels type guys. I’ve tried moving him and I couldnt eve get W.McGahee.

Mercenaries
10 years ago

In PPR dynasty, I have Finley as my TE1, but which two of these other TE’s would you keep?

Martellus Bennett
Luke Stocker
Kellen Davis
Jordan Cameron

Admin
Reply to  Mercenaries
10 years ago

I’d have Bennett ahead of the other guys there. I don’t see Stocker as a good fantasy option & both of the other guys have potential, but may never realize it. At least w/ Bennett, you know he’ll have plenty of opportunities in 2012 and have a chance to prove himself.

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