As has been an annual event here at DLF, we like to highlight a couple of our rookie drafts to give you an idea where the players are being selected. Every league is unique with different owners who will value players and positions differently, but you’ll likely find a common thread that runs through most drafts, especially through the first two rounds.
This particular league is nearly a decade old and has been the source of many draft articles in the past. The owners are knowledgeable and very competitive. Surprisingly enough, this league also has only recently converted to a PPR system and this draft represents the first one under the new format. It is also includes a three player IDP format (any position).
Just for reference, I am “Team 1,” Ken Moody is “Team 9” and Ken Kelly is “Team 10.”
Let’s get to the selections:
2012 Rookie PPR Draft
1.01 Team 9 Andrew Luck, QB IND
1.02 Team 9 Trent Richardson, RB CLE
1.03 Team 5 Doug Martin, RB TB
1.04 Team 1 Robert Griffin III, QB WAS
1.05 Team 9 Justin Blackmon, WR JAX
1.06 Team 2 David Wilson, RB NYG
1.07 Team 9 Michael Floyd, WR ARI
1.08 Team 5 Isaiah Pead, RB STL
1.09 Team 3 Kendall Wright, WR TEN
1.10 Team 3 Stephen Hill, WR NYJ
The first thing you’ll note is that Team 9 (Ken Moody) is in a mode of draft pick acquisition and rebuilding. That process is essentially complete in 2012 and he’s going to have a good young foundation. This year, 1.01 and 1.02 have been used on the best two names in this year’s draft, Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson. No further explanation needed. Team 5, already owning Matt Stafford, selects Doug Martin at 1.03. Even though I own Tom Brady, Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton at quarterback, I make the easy choice of using 1.04 on Robert Griffin III. Unsurprisingly, Justin Blackmon also goes to Team 9 at 1.05.
Now the fun and guesswork really begins.
At 1.06, Team 2 takes David Wilson. At this point in the draft, just about any player is fair game to be taken and I could make a case for perhaps fifteen different players here depending on team need. Wilson is entrenched in a time share situation, but incumbent starter Ahmad Bradshaw is far from injury free year after year. For the record, I’ve become less and less enamored with Wilson as a great prospect in the NFL.
Team 9 scores again with a Michael Floyd selection at 1.07. He now lands the best quarterback, the best running back and the top two rated wide receivers. Floyd’s situation is murky but he’ll be mentored by the best character receiver in the game in Larry Fitzgerald. Isaiah Pead is a surprise selection, in my estimation, at 1.08 by Team 5, who selected Doug Martin earlier in the round. Team 5 needs running back help and Pead at this point represents Steven Jackson’s backup. Team 3, who is now starting a rebuilding process of his own, but lacking any top picks, traded Marques Colston for both picks 1.09 and 1.10, a deal we believe is pretty good for Team 3. Those two picks are used on Kendall Wright and Stephen Hill, respectively, in hopes that one of them pans out. With receivers, it’s far from a certainty, but the picks are solid.
2.01 Team 3 Mohamed Sanu, WR CIN
2.02 Team 9 Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA
2.03 Team 3 Coby Fleener, TE IND
2.04 Team 8 A.J. Jenkins, WR SF
2.05 Team 4 Ronnie Hillman, RB DEN
2.06 Team 4 Lamar Miller, RB MIA
2.07 Team 5 Brian Quick, WR STL
2.08 Team 7 Luke Kuechly, LB CAR
2.09 Team 6 Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
2.10 Team 9 LaMichael James, RB SF
Despite the absence of a couple of names, the second round was about as expected. Mohamed Sanu at #11 overall, given his situation, makes sense unless you feel fellow rookie Bengal receiver Marvin Jones is on equal footing heading into camp. Clearly, A.J. Jenkins is still a mystery to many as he falls to #14 overall, but about where I had him pegged. We then get back-to-back picks of both Ronnie Hillman and Lamar Miller by Team 4, a team that needs running back help. Hillman is rising on boards and I had Miller going at #17 overall. Hillman has an opportunity in a backfield where things are really up in the air. Miller looks like he’s going to get some time on the bench and the Dolphins are on record as saying that he was drafted as a kick returner and developmental back – those two roles don’t usually carry quick rewards.
Luke Kuechly is the first IDP taken and goes about where we expected. Alshon Jeffery falls much further than expected and Team 6’s owner really didn’t even want to draft him there. As I had the first pick in round three, I was happy to see LaMichael James off the board at #20 overall. I didn’t want to be tempted.
3.01 Team 1 Rueben Randle, WR NYG
3.02 Team 10 Ryan Broyles, WR DET
3.03 Team 5 Robert Turbin, RB SEA
3.04 Team 1 Marvin Jones, WR CIN
3.05 Team 4 Brandon Weeden, QB CLE
3.06 Team 9 Nick Toon, WR NO
3.07 Team 5 Michael Egnew, TE MIA
3.08 Team 7 Chris Givens, WR STL
3.09 Team 1 Chris Polk, RB PHI
3.10 Team 10 Russell Wilson, QB SEA
I’ve always loved drafting in round three. This is where you can get real gems, take the deep sleeper without immediate expectation for production or trade away the picks for a second rounder next year.
My pick at 3.01 (#21 overall) was a value pick. I also have pick 3.04 and wanted both Rueben Randle and Ryan Broyles. There are advantages to running a dynasty site with fellow league mates in that you at least know what they are thinking about certain players. Knowing that Team 10 (Ken Kelly) liked Broyles quite a bit, I considered drafting him here in hopes that Randle would slip. In the end, Randle is a first round talent in my book and I had to just hope that Broyles fell past Team 10 at 3.02. He didn’t. Robert Turbin at 3.03 was a bit of a reach but, hey, the coach lives in the Pacific Northwest and is a Seahawks fan. Why not at this stage of the draft? Marshawn Lynch has been paid and that usually doesn’t equate into a better year to follow.
At 3.04 Brandon Weeden is still on the board and represents a great value. But noting my quarterback situation earlier, I don’t want an aged rookie. I really wanted to take a stab at Chris Polk and didn’t expect him to fall much further. As it stands, I selected Marvin Jones because I believe he IS on an even playing field with Sanu in Cincinnati. He played in a pro-style offense and is every bit of the receiver Sanu is in my mind, but with more speed and upside. Weeden is finally taken at 3.05, representing a great bargain to a team that could use a developmental quarterback.
At 3.06, the allure of the Saints’ offense is too much and Nick Toon is off the board. Drew Brees can make any receiver look good and Toon does look the part of a possible starting receiver in time. Again, it’s the third round. Michael Egnew is a head-scratcher here at 3.07 but Miami does have a need for an athletic tight end. Maybe there’s a prayer. The pick at 3.08 sees Chris Givens off the board, slotted as expected. At 3.09, Polk does fall to me, surprisingly, and I had to take the chance.
At 3.10, one of my favorite sleeper players, goes off the board to Ken Kelly, the same team that took Ryan Broyles. We’re obviously operating off the same list – not surprising. Russell Wilson is as good in the work ethic and character departments as you’ll see. If he’s three to four inches taller, he’s a top ten pick in the draft. It’s worth the risk as Seattle’s quarterback situation is anything but settled.
There you have it, three rounds of rookie draft goodness.
In the end, this draft ended up being fairly representative of my expectations following the NFL draft, without any significant reaches or head-scratching moments. Given that 2012 went from the penthouse to the doghouse very quickly due to drafted situations, I didn’t have a lot of excitement about the later rounds. However, as usually ends up being the case, intriguing players often drop. This draft does have a talent curve that suggests more later round players could be fantasy productive than what normally would be expected. We’ll see how that turns out.
Biggest Reach – Isaiah Pead selected in the first round was a surprise. He does have a chance, but there’s little about him that screams every down back or eventual successor to Steven Jackson. I’ve been wrong before, though.
Biggest Value – A close call between Rueben Randle at #21 overall and Brandon Weeden at #35. I believe picking Weeden in the middle of the third round represents a great bargain. He’ll likely be starting from day one and, if he’s able to stick at the position, he does have a good opportunity to produce despite his age. Honorable mention goes to Chicago’s Alshon Jefferey at 2.09. I still don’t like Jeffery as a receiver, however, and his selection isn’t that far off from my own valuation in the end.
- Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Five: Road Trip Edition - October 4, 2022
- Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Four: Road Trip Edition - October 1, 2022
- Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Three: Road Trip Edition - September 20, 2022