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The DLF Mailbag

 

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  I subscribe to the theory that anyone can be traded for the right deal.  What do you think of this trade offer?  I give: Megatron, Tampa Mike, and Mark Ingram and I get: Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace and the 1.12.Jeff in the Garden State

Now that is the definition of a blockbuster!

It’s rare to see an owner seriously considering a deal involving Megatron.  Plus, I agree with your notion that anyone can be traded if the price is right.

I don’t like selling Tampa Mike and Ingram at this point in time.  Their values are at career lows.  This time last year Ingram was arguably the 1.01 and was locked as a top three rookie.  Tampa Mike was viewed as a low end WR1/high end WR2.  I have a positive outlook for both of these players in 2012.  Tampa Mike should benefit from the addition of V.Jax and I think Ingram gets too much heat for his lack of first year production.  Admittedly, his recent knee surgery is worrisome to me but I’m not jumping off the train quite yet.

I look at the mix of players you are trading and it comes down to this:  Would I trade Tampa Mike and Ingram for Wallace?  And if so, would I also trade Megatron for Nicks and the 1.12?  For me, the overall answer is no.  I think the first part might be slightly in your favor, but certainly not by the margin that the second part goes against you.  Stand pat and enjoy Megatron’s continued dominance and the resurgence of Tampa Mike and Mark Ingram.

2.)  Would you trade the 1.03 and the 2.02 (or 2.03) for Ahmad Bradshaw, Antonio Brown and the 1.05?  My only legitimate quarterback is Matt Schaub and I think RG3 will be there at 1.03. Alan also in the Garden State

Yes.  And I’m tempted to leave it at that.

I hope by now you’ve already accepted this rather unbelievable offer.  Antonio Brown is arguably worth the 1.03 by himself.  So the rest of this deal is tremendously in your favor.  Figure out your quarterback problem later.  Keep acquiring the most valuable assets and you’ll be fine.  I suspect someone will trade you a decent quarterback for Bradshaw – maybe the guy who takes David Wilson in your rookie draft.

3.)  What kind of value do you see in these second year WRs: Randall Cobb, Jon Baldwin and Greg Little? Phil from Tobacco Alley

I’ll touch on each individually:

Randall Cobb

I like him a lot and I’d have him second among the guys you list behind Greg Little.  He has tremendous talent, a great attitude and the best quarterback in football.  The only thing working against him is the crowded team he plays on.  That will shake out in time.  Patient owners will be rewarded by Cobb.  I also think he may end up being a very good buy low candidate mid-season because I doubt he comes out of the gate with much production.

Jon Baldwin

Never liked him and nothing has changed.  I think Baldwin was grossly over drafted by Kansas City last year.  He is a malcontent and has behaved that way in college and the pros.  Add to that, Matt Cassel who I think is an acceptable-to-good backup NFL quarterback and you’ve got a guy in Baldwin that I won’t have on any dynasty roster.  He’s outside of my top 60 WRs, but he’s not quite waiver wire material.  There are other flyer receivers I’d rather own.

Greg Little

Short of Cleveland doing the right thing and closing the deal on RG3, this was a terrific off-season for Little.  Let me count the ways:

1.) Once again Little finds himself as the undisputed WR1.  Cleveland did nothing meaningful in either free agency or the draft to bolster the wide receiver group – this will translate to his getting the majority of targets.

2.) They added some guy called Trent Richardson.  He will take pressure off the passing game because he will demand attention from defenses.  I expect the focus of teams who play the Browns will be to stop Richardson at all costs.  That’s good for Little.

3.) Brandon Weeden isn’t that bad.  Whether he’s the day one starter or not, I don’t know.  But I am willing to bet that he is starting sooner rather than later.  Weeden was wildly successful running the OSU offense that focused on Blackmon.  I think Little is a comparable talent to Blackmon, but frankly has superior measurables.

This is probably the optimal time to try to acquire Little with a 2012 rookie pick.  It is an absolute steal to get him for the 1.07 or later.

4.)  What’s Chris Polk worth now that he plummeted in the draft and was taken by Philadelphia?  I need running back help.  Jarred in Seattle

I was never high on Chris Polk and wasn’t all that surprised that he fell in the draft.  In the plus column, he’s probably the best pass catching running back in the draft class and Philly will appreciate that.  On the other side of the coin, he’s backing up LeSean McCoy who I rank as the overall most valuable dynasty player.

Polk is likely to get some touches regardless of whether McCoy is injured or not.  The Eagles coaches said recently that they felt they may have overworked McCoy in 2011.  On the other hand, a lot of analysts were pretty high on Dion Lewis last year and he hasn’t gone anywhere.  So, in short, you have an elite running back (McCoy) and a fight for carries when he needs a breather between Lewis and Polk.  Yuck.

Net/net:  You’d need to be very far down in a rookie draft to take Polk – like the fourth or fifth round.  He’s not even locked in as the handcuff to McCoy.  I’d look elsewhere for my running back help.

From time to time a question hits the mailbag that I simply can’t answer.  I just rely on the wealth of dynasty know how at DLF.  This week I got an IDP question and it was all I could do to spell IDP just now.  So, please welcome my guest Steve Wyremski to the mailbag tradition.

Special Question:  I am working on a trade to bring in DL Charles Johnson (CAR) and went to look at your Dynasty DL Rankings to see where he ranks and he is nowhere to be found.  DL Greg Hardy (CAR) comes in at #17, but Johnson isn’t in the top 25??  I have to imagine he is ranked higher than Greg Hardy, – isn’t he?  Brian in Michigan

Steve’s Reply:

Charles Johnson not being included in our rankings is a clear oversight. Nice catch!

In fact, updated dynasty IDP rankings are one of the items we will be focusing on in the near term. We added a number of additional IDP resources to the current group, so expect that soon.

Specific to Johnson, he ranks as a top ten dynasty defensive lineman. I currently have him ranked seventh overall in my second tier of defensive lineman behind guys like Jason Pierre-Paul, Jared Allen, Mario Williams, and Trent Cole. He is also a significant upgrade from Greg Hardy who can be reasonably ranked as a top 25 defensive lineman. Johnson remains a top defensive line option since he’s only 25, plays in a 4-3 base defense, and typically is on the field for more than 85% of the team’s snaps. To provide some additional context, he was recently drafted as the ninth defensive lineman in a 12-team IDP expert mock draft we participated in. Hardy was drafted in the 29th round.

So, you are correct. Johnson should be ranked well above Hardy.

One thing to keep in mind is that Johnson did recently undergo a knee procedure. They are calling it minor, but it is something to be aware of when targeting him.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Mitch Jahnke
10 years ago

After reading your article Im thinking about offering the owner of david wilson Ahmad Bradshaw. I was thinking of offering him Bradshaw for either Jake Locker or Flacco. In our league we start one QB, 2RB, RB/WR, 2WR, TE, and an OP. I already have Romo and Alex Smith to use as my QB’s and my running back situation is Fred Jackson, DEmarco Murray, Bradshaw, some backup talent, and then I drafted Ronnie Hillman and Cyrus Gray. Im just wondering if I should just stay put or try and get some depth at QB, I did draft Ryan Linley and Nick Foles, so I do have some developing QBs.

Brian
Reply to  Mitch Jahnke
10 years ago

No way! Everybody needs a 3rd RB. Locker is on my team and I think he will be awesome, but Romo has 4 or 5 years left, so worry about it later. You have to win now in fantasy, even dynasty too. Flacco is just good enough to get you beat, his good games are not enough to make up for his multiple clunkers per year.

strim281
10 years ago

I’ve been offered Julio and a 2013 3rd for CJ1K. .5 PPR and we can start either 3RB OR 3WR as there is a flex. I’m worried that i will deplete my RB Depth of CJ, Mathews, Martin, JStew & Donald Brown while adding to my WR depth of Fitz, BMarsh, Demary, Lloyd, Cobb, Randle. I know that WRs last a lot longer than RBs, but is CJ going to bounce back like I think he is?
Is the value right?

Does it make sense for my team?

Thanks for any input and love the site!

Steve Wyremski
Reply to  strim281
10 years ago

I’d take Julio over Chris Johnson any day in a PPR league (even 0.5 PPR). CJ hits 27 in September. Maybe he bounces back in ’12, but you aren’t going to have him much longer at a high level.

Your RB committee is still very solid without him.

Brian
Reply to  strim281
10 years ago

Mathews, Jones and Marshall are all on my team. I don’t play flex leagues though. My question is, what happens when/if Mathews gets hurt or is questionable every week? Stewart or Brown will have to play, while Demaryious will have to sit, as you’ll be playing only 3 of 4 WR’s. Won’t a team with 3 good RB’s and only 2 good WR’s be favored over your Rookie RB + 1 of the 2 above inconsistent RB’s and 3 WR’s?

Coach
10 years ago

love that you think so highly of antonio brown. i think he’s a good one as well.

i don’t agree that you have mccoy has your top player- i’ll take foster any day of the week- but both are top 3 and thats an argument for another day.

Tom
10 years ago

Is it just a given then that Polk makes the team over Bryce Brown? I’ve had an eye on Brown all off-season, and the Eagles at least cared enough to burn a 7th rounder on him, where Polk went undrafted. I was planning on taking a flier on Brown in the 4th-5th round area, just wondering which back you guys like better?

MR ROURKE
10 years ago

I can’t get past the comment of A.Brown is arguably worth the 1.03 by himself. I wish I had me some A.Brown to sell.

Pete Van Blaricom
Reply to  MR ROURKE
10 years ago

I love Antonio Brown, and I agree that he isn’t worth the 3rd pick in a Rookie/Dynasty Draft. BTW, I’m the guy that made the trade with Alan from NJ. I know I gave up alot in this deal, but I wanted to trade up from the 5th pick to the 3rd pick. I also added a high 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder in the deal. I know have the 3rd pick, 15th, 22nd, and the 28th pick.

Brees Brothaz–Key players
QB—Brees, Sanchez, Locker, Kolb
RB—McCoy, Rice, Vereen
WR—A. Johnson, B. Marshall, D. Bryant, D. Thomas
TE—J. Graham, Keller
K—D. Bailey
Def—Pack, Hou, Det

Coach
Reply to  MR ROURKE
10 years ago

i have brown and i wouldn’t trade him for the 1.03. who am i going to get? i won’t be getting luck or richardson. no thanks.

Nate
10 years ago

Would you rather have Tannehill for a max of 5 years (behind Brady and Ponder) or Vincent Brown for 2 years (probaly WR4 or WR5) in a 0.5 ppr, 6 points/all TDs, no negative points for INTs

Bad Santa
10 years ago

I am in a Dynasty league where I can start 2 RB (No flex) but can only KEEP 3 RB max.

I have:

DeMarco Murray
Chris Johnson
LeSean McCoy
Jamaal Charles

I need to cut one. McCoy and Murray are written in, do I cut/trade Chris Johnson or Jamall Charles?

Alan Bauerle
10 years ago

I say u cut/trade Jaamal Charles. C2k gonna have Locker spreading the ball out to Kenny Britt, Jared cook, Damien Williams, Kendall Wright, and a few other weapons. Charles is like the only weapon, Cassel isn’t the best qb, and Charles is comin off a big injury. Just my 2 cents

Danton Goulet
10 years ago

Wanted some opinions from you guys.
In a 12 team 20 man roster non ppr league, one team traded mendy, beanie, and 2nd overall this year for Foster.
What do you all think?

Alan Bauerle
10 years ago

I don’t know why the owner of Foster would give him up for that… Unless he’s really stacked at rb. I wouldn’t have done it.. Mendy is another one comin off a big surgery and Beanie Wells has been up n down so far.

racer-x
10 years ago

Love the mailbag feature and I liked the reference to Antonio Brown being arguably worth the 1.03 pick by itself. This made me think that an article or an addition to rankings is in order.

I would love to see top 25 lists include that players value in rookie draft picks. Like Antonio Brown = 1.03, Hakeem Nicks 2 first rounders, etc.

Is this doable?

P.S. “It will be included in the premium content” is an acceptable answer!

F B Nut
10 years ago

Can you give me the trade value for my WRs, im in a 14 team 20 roster , keep 13 in a deep keeper league. We have a flex position. Pretty much standard scoring.

WR Calvin Johnson ( keep )
WR Brandon Marshall
WR Denarious Moore
WR Antonio Brown
WR Eric Decker

Now my WRs are solid and young, My biggest needs are at RB and Better QBs. But im in a league were im only getting offers of third rd picks or lower QBs for Decker or Brown. So unless I can get value for one I would keep them. but in a league like this it hurts to keep 5 WRs on your roster. Meaning I would have to drop some players I dont want to.

I could use any input .

Thanks

strim281
Reply to  F B Nut
10 years ago

Out of those 4 ( not counting Mega ) I’d easily cut/trade Denarius rather than part w/ the other guys listed. I would see his trade value in the late 1st ish since he may be the guy in OAK. He def has some tremendous upside, but i like the others listed better. GL

F B Nut
Reply to  strim281
10 years ago

Thanks for the info bud.

Its just that no one wants to give more than a third for any of my WRs other than Megatron or Marshall. Its at the point in my league where guys are thinking about who to drop, so they are thinking they can get players that are deep on a owners roster cheaply.

I wont drop any of these guys if I cant trade for value. But will have to bite the bullet on dopping guys elsewhere. My WRs all have upside, so they have priority.

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