2012 Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Consensus Top 20

This is a busy time of year for DLF.  In fact, it’s THE busiest time of year.  We know that most dynasty league players believe the NFL draft is the kickoff to the new season.  We want you to be prepared for your upcoming rookie drafts and are making sure we have the content to help guide you through the process.  What follows is our consensus top 20 rookie list taken from our updated rankings page, along with a short profile on each player.

For complete pick-by-pick analysis from the weekend, or for the newly released downloadable rookie draft cheat sheet with positional and overall rankings, visit our premium content section.

1.  Andrew Luck, QB IND

No real secret about this selection.  In a stunning turn of events in 2011, the Colts went from a perennial playoff team to the worst team in the league when legendary Peyton Manning sat out the season due to a neck injury. What followed was a display of just how important Manning was to the Colts.  As fortune smiled upon them in 1998, so it has again in 2012 as perhaps the greatest quarterback prospect since 1983, Andrew Luck, fell into their lap.

The Colts paired Luck with a selection of his collegiate tight end, Coby Fleener, with their first pick in the second round. This selection should generate at least some degree of immediate chemistry in the passing game.  The Colts also retained Reggie Wayne on the outside while adding speedsters T.Y. Hilton and LaVon Brazill.  The running game didn’t get an upgrade and the Colts are obviously content at this point to allow the duo of Donald Brown and Delone Carter shoulder the load.

Luck is not likely to lead the rookies in fantasy production in his first couple of years, but he is as close as you can get to a sure thing coming out of college for the next 12-15 years at the position.  His talent, maturity and skill set is too great to pass on at 1.01 unless you have a top young quarterback on your roster already.

2.  Trent Richardson, RB CLE

The Browns moved up and got the player they wanted.  In most any other year, Richardson would be an easy selection as the 1.01 in fantasy drafts.  Only the rare inclusion of someone as good as Andrew Luck in 2012 can push him down a notch.  Running backs have been de-emphasized in greater numbers of late and Richardson’s value is actually greater due to his ability to stay on the field.

He’s as pro-ready as you see coming out of college and he’ll be a three down back for the Browns.  He’s strong, nimble and has enough lateral agility and speed to make secondaries pay the price if he’s not checked at the line.  He’s adept enough in the passing game and is a willing blocker.  The Browns also have an adequate offensive line that could propel Richardson’s numbers beyond what we often see in first-year backs.

Richardson has been favorably compared to Adrian Peterson and dubbed elite by nearly the entire NFL community.  If you’re needy at both the quarterback and running back positions, you’ve got quite the decision to make but all signs point to Richardson just being too sexy to pass up on.

Now can he stay healthy?

3.  Robert Griffin III, QB WAS

It’s not often that you have a draft that has a once in a decade player (Luck) at a position, and even more rare when you have two.  Many believe that Robert Griffin III (RGIII) is nearly as good as Luck and he’s certainly more dynamic.  He’s got a monster arm, elite mobility and arguably throws on the move as well as he does standing in the pocket.  Mix in elite leadership, charisma and football intelligence and you have the second elite rookie quarterback prospect in 2012.

Mobile quarterbacks have a much higher injury quotient, so the questions will remain about RGIII’s ability to stay healthy over the long term.  You won’t find many experts who believe RGIII won’t have a very noteworthy career.  In fantasy, the combination of standard quarterback scoring with the addition of rushing yardage and touchdowns makes RGIII extremely tempting, even perhaps over Luck.  In the end, we believe Luck is the clear first choice within the position, but we won’t fault fantasy coaches for rolling the dice on RGIII before him.

The Redskins didn’t do much to add talent around Luck via the draft, but added receivers in free agency to complement existing younger receivers such as Leonard Hankerson and Fred Davis.  Given the fact the Redskins also have an emerging run game behind Roy Helu Jr., they are suddenly a team to watch in the NFC.

4.  Doug Martin, RB TB

Heading into the draft, the top four selections looked rock solid as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Trent Richardson and Justin Blackmon.

Enter Doug Martin, selected by Tampa Bay late in the first round.

Fantasy coaches love their running backs and Martin’s stock was steadily rising leading up to the draft.  A rare blend of size and downhill running ability, Martin is now in immediate line for significant carries as a rookie and could well challenge Cleveland’s Trent Richardson for best rookie running back.  Given that many don’t care for Justin Blackmon’s ultimate landing spot (Jacksonville), you can expect Martin to take over as the fourth (or better) rookie selected.  Feel free to downgrade LeGarrette Blount significantly.

Tampa Bay struggled mightily on defense in 2011 and Josh Freeman regressed.  Receivers Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn didn’t come close to 1,000 yards receiving and the running game had no punch.  The Bucs added Vincent Jackson in free agency which should now open up some running lanes.  Martin isn’t the type of back who will take over a game, but he should be very productive between the tackles and restore offensive balance to Tampa.  Fantasy coaches in need of running back help should be excited to have him at 1.04.

5.  Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

Blackmon’s stock was all over the map leading up to the draft.  Many an NFL front office had Blackmon as the clear top prospect in the draft, while others had him listed as a second round talent due to a perceived lack of size and speed.  Any way you slice it, Blackmon is a gritty, hard-nosed player who will do what’s needed to get the ball and punish secondaries after he catches it.  He doesn’t have blazing speed or the ability to overly stretch the field, but he knows how to use his body, be physical off the line and is extremely dangerous in both shallow and deep slants.

The Jaguars are well known for churning out offensive duds for receivers and haven’t had a consistent threat since the departure of Jimmy Smith.  High draft choices in recent years haven’t panned out and fantasy coaches are anything but excited about Blackmon’s landing spot.  Rookie Blaine Gabbert should take positive steps this year, but there are no guarantees that this will result in fantasy relevance for Blackmon.  He’s clearly the first receiver off the board in rookie drafts, but he could fall to 1.06 depending on circumstances.

6.  Michael Floyd, WR ARI

Floyd surpassed Blackmon on a few boards leading up to the draft, but ultimately fell to the Cardinals with the 13th selection.  He has deceptive speed and is a natural hands catcher.  He doesn’t play as fast on tape as he ran at the combine and he sometimes gets lazy at the top of his routes, but there’s no questioning his prototypical size and ability.

In Arizona, he’ll be paired with Larry Fitzgerald and his fantasy outlook is a little unclear.  There is arguably no better mentor than Fitzgerald and he’s sure to pick up the finer points of the game at a faster pace.  The Cardinals will also be lining up a dangerous trio of receivers in Fitzgerald, Floyd and Early Doucet or Andre Roberts.  It’s also been said that Doucet may be on the trade block after emerging some in 2011.  With a running game finally taking hold, returning starter Kevin Kolb will have few excuses for poor production.

As for Floyd, his drafted value takes a small dip until his role is established, but he’s likely to still be the second receiver off the board after Blackmon.

7.  David Wilson, RB NYG

The draft starts getting much thinner here with Wilson heading to the Big Apple.  Wilson has a speed and balance dynamic that is noteworthy, but it’s difficult to project his game to the NFL with any level of confidence.  In New York, he’ll be paired with accomplished runner Ahmad Bradshaw and will be able to ease into his role. He’ll likely be moved around to take advantage of his skill set, similar to what Miami does with Reggie Bush.

The Super Bowl champions already have a noteworthy offense, led by two-time Super Bowl champion Eli Manning.  With receivers Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and rookie Rueben Randle to handle the receiving load, defenses won’t be able to stack the box.  There will be plenty of opportunities for Wilson to see the field and Bradshaw is far from consistently healthy.  Wilson’s value takes a hit here, but he has a large amount of upside as well.

8.  Kendall Wright, WR TEN

A bit of a surprise that Tennessee ends up with Wright in the first round, but that’s what the draft is all about.  With Kenny Britt returning, the Titans should now have a potent passing offense to take the pressure off the offensive line and Chris Johnson.

Wright is a dynamic receiver with a competitive streak that runs very deep.  He’s undisciplined at times and never ran as well as expected at the NFL Combine or pro day, but the tape tells a different story.  He’s consistently able to stretch defenses, take the top off and come down with the big play at the right time.

In fantasy circles, you’ll either like Wright or you won’t, as exemplified by our individual rankings.  I’m the lone contributor who believes Wright’s value falls into the teens.  If the Titans are able to get consistent play from their quarterbacks, and prove that there are enough balls to be distributed, Wright has the ability to put up numbers similar to Jordy Nelson in 2011.  If that is how he starts, he’ll be a gem late in the first round of your rookie draft

9.  Stephen Hill, WR NYJ

Rex Ryan has already established the expectation that Hill will be an opening day starter for the Jets.  A selection of Hill in fantasy is a selection for the belief that a receiver’s eventual production is more about size and speed than it is collegiate production.  Hill blew the doors off everyone else at the NFL Combine and, no doubt, created a mad rush for game film as scouts and team brass tried to figure out just what he is capable of at the next level.   There’s just little way to tell without getting him on the field.

If the eventual production of fellow Georgia Tech receiver Demaryius Thomas is any indication, Hill will be just fine.  And let’s not forget that Tech’s quirky offense also produced super-stud Calvin Johnson – the lineage is a good one.  Unfortunately, the Jets offense isn’t.  I have serious concerns about the leadership of Mark Sanchez and his  ability to generate a consistent passing attack with Shonn Greene at running back and Santonio Holmes across from Hill.

Regardless, Hill has too much talent not to carry a level of excitement and he’ll likely be drafted consistently in the bottom third of the first round of fantasy drafts.

10.  Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA

This selection was anything but a surprise.

There’s little chance that Tannehill isn’t starting by week ten as the Matt Moore experiment comes to an end.  To his credit, Moore didn’t fail entirely and actually put up respectable numbers.  However, the winds of change are blowing in Miami and he’ll need a new home.

Tannehill represents the typical rookie quarterback who needs time to develop.  His arm is adequate, perhaps even more so.  His footwork is fair, his pocket presence is average as well, but he seems to have above average IQ and the ability to lead.  If not for being overshadowed by Luck and RGIII, there would have been more excitement surrounding Tannehill and his fantasy drafted status would have been higher in most other years.

He’s not flashy, but for teams needing young quarterback depth, Tannehill represents a good bet in the late first round.

11.  Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI

Talk about enigmatic!

With the 45th pick overall, the Bears brought to an end the discussion about just where Jeffery would be selected.  Some considered him a first round talent with the work ethic of a fourth rounder.  Some considered him a slower Calvin Johnson, while others were seriously concerned with his weight.  Jeffery will remain a complete unknown until he proves something on the field. He’s got the body and catch radius to be extremely productive, but big questions about physicality remain.

The Bears have yet to produce fantasy significance from their receivers, but acquired Brandon Marshall from Miami in free agency and now Jeffery via the draft.  Can Jay Cutler and Marshall be as productive as they were in Denver?  Will the existence Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett and Devin Hester delay Jeffery’s growth, or will the Bears seek to get Jeffery immersed quickly.

This is a classic “boom or bust” pick.

12.  Mohamed Sanu, WR CIN

There’s a lot to like about Sanu and his selection by the Bengals is chief among them.  Having lost Jerome Simpson to the Vikings, the Bengals had great need at receiver.

Sanu isn’t flashy, but he’ll have every opportunity to take over for the departing Simpson and start from day one along side A.J. Green.  Sanu is the the type of receiver who will work the middle of the field and may remind some of T.J. Houshmandzadeh of a few years ago.  With Green on the outside and Sanu working underneath, he could be very productive in PPR leagues.  Note the Bengals also selected receiver Marvin Jones out of Cal, so the camp battle is on.

Don’t look now, but the Bengals have quietly assembled a very young offense with upside.

13.  Brandon Weeden, QB CLE

You have to feel a little bad for Colt McCoy.  Receiving the dreaded vote of confidence on the day of the draft was obviously a smokescreen to keep others at bay and away from the Browns true intentions of selecting Weeden with their 22nd pick.  He’s older than half the existing starting quarterbacks in the NFL without even taking his first snap, so you can expect Weeden will be under center from day one.

He has a lot of work to do in order to learn how to play the NFL game from under center, but he has the arm and football IQ to develop quickly.  He’s an accurate signal caller and throws with a nice release point and touch.  He tends to get jumpy in a collapsing pocket and shows reluctance to hang in and deliver the ball.  However, as a rookie quarterback, he’ll develop quickly if given snaps.

He’s not a sexy fantasy pick, but he’s a good selection in the teens for those looking for a backup quarterback or those already possessing McCoy.

14.  Coby Fleener, TE IND

Fleener has moved up due to the falling prospects of other rookies.  Reunited with his Stanford quarterback, Andrew Luck, he should have immediate chemistry as a receiving tight end and post solid numbers in his first year.  The Colts also selected Clemson’s Dwayne Allen, most likely to provide some degree of in-line blocking as Fleener is notoriously incapable at this point in his development.

Fleener may grace the bottom of the first round in fantasy drafts, or could slip much further in shallower leagues.  In all likelihood, he’ll be a coveted pick due to the poor 2012 tight end class.

15.  Isaiah Pead, RB STL

Many may mistakenly (say that three times fast) believe that Pead has been drafted as Steven Jackson’s backup.  I find that highly unlikely as Pead doesn’t have the size and speed combination to provide the every down ability that Jackson does.  Coach Jeff Fisher does have experience with small, quicker backs such as Chris Johnson, so look for him to get Pead into space to utilize is 4.47 speed.  Pead is no Chris Johnson, but does bring a dynamic that the Rams need.

Jackson may not be back with the Rams in 2013 and Pead’s role will be determined through his play in 2012.  Either way, look for him to play a heavy support role to Jackson and to eventually give way to bigger back in 2013.  Until then, Pead may have some value as Jackson’s handcuff, especially in PPR formats.  Given Jackson’s injury history, it’s not out of the question that Pead could be called into duty and surprise us.

16.  Rueben Randle, WR NYG

Randle could have fallen to a better situation, but has to be happy with the receivers around him from which he’ll learn about the game at the next level.  A big, capable playmaker, Randle took hits from scouts due to his speed of play.  In watching tape, I see some of the noted concerns, but I also see a receiver with better speed than given credit for and very capable hands.  He won’t take the top off defenses, but is reliable in space and will give Eli Manning another big target, especially over the middle.

Randle isn’t a “boom or bust” pick, but a receiver who should be productive for many years once his role is established.  The question will be if he can garner a role that leads to fantasy significance or whether he becomes one of those receivers deserving of a roster spot, but can rarely be played (i.e., Michael Jenkins).

17.  A.J. Jenkins, WR SF

A shocker of a pick at number thirty overall in the first round.

San Francisco was quick to defend the selection saying he rated very highly and reminded them of a young Terrell Owens.  At 6’0′ and 190 lbs., it’s obvious that Harbaugh and company saw things on tape that suggested Jenkins was a diamond in the rough, or maybe a gem now.

Jenkins is a natural hands snatcher and will high-point tough passes.  He’s relatively quick and has deceptive speed – his 4.39 40 was notable.  He has the ability to get in and out of breaks quickly to create separation.  It seems likely that Jenkins would have been available much later in the second round, but perhaps other teams were onto him as well.

Jenkins’ situation isn’t ideal for early productivity in that he will be sharing the field with Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and Michael Crabtree.  For this reason, he may slip a bit in fantasy rookie drafts and could be a bargain late in the second round.

18.  Brian Quick, WR STL

Following the draft, it’s already been said by beat reporters that the expectation is that both Brian Quick and fellow rookie Chris Givens will be starting for the Rams when the season opens.

Quick is as raw as they come out of college, but possesses good size and fair speed (4.55).  He’s strong in traffic and isn’t afraid of contact or routes across the middle.  For a big receiver, his hands (9.6″) are smaller than we like to see and he sometimes fights them on balls received into his body.

Pencil him in as your day one starter for the Rams, but keep expectations low.  He’ll be drafted in the mid-to-late second round in fantasy.

19.  Ronnie Hillman, RB DEN

Hillman is a dynamic speed back who will have an immediate role for the Broncos, desperately in need for speed in the backfield.  We expected Denver to seek out a bigger back to take over for Willis McGahee when he departs, but Hillman likely won’t fit this role.  That said, Hillman is a quick-twitch athlete who has great lateral agility, stop-start ability and rare toughness for his size.

On a sour note, Hillman also has small hands and isn’t accomplished in the passing game.  He doesn’t exhibit a lot of patience behind his line and is too quick to push the play.  Once in the open field, though, Hillman is a nightmare for second level defenders.  Look for Denver to use him in a similar role to Reggie Bush in Miami as they try to get him into space or as a runner in stretch plays parallel to the line of scrimmage.

It’s hard to project his eventual production outside of a PPR format.

20.  Lamar Miller, RB MIA

Outside of the surprise that was Chris Polk (undrafted), Miller continued to fall and wasn’t selected until the fourth round.  Concerns about his shoulder weighed on his value, but it has been said his football intelligence is seriously in question after failing chalkboard sessions at the NFL Combine.  Miami is said to view him as a “kick returner” and “developmental running back.”

Miller disappeared on third down, short yardage or when tough inside runs were called for and this likely added to his significant drop.  In space, Miller is able to showcase his legitimate 4.40 speed and, given his size, is difficult to bring down from behind.  Unlike other backs in this class with questionable speed, Miller can go the distance if a seam develops and not be caught from behind.  In the passing game, he’s capable but not adept.  He shows fluidity when catching the ball on the move and a relatively fluid ability to catch while maintaining forward motion.  HIs toughness is in question with the ball in his hands, so to is it in question as a blocker.  He’s not overly physical or willing in pass protection and plays much smaller than his size would suggest.

Miller is as high a risk-reward as you can get in 2012.  His value, due to drafted position, is clearly in the middle of the third round but as other rookies went to questionable situations, it’s likely that Miller will be taken late in the second round.  Not many running backs pan out from this position.


Jeff Haverlack

Jeff Haverlack

Senior Partner / COO at Dynasty League Football
Husband and father who devotes far too much time to Fantasy Football, research, statistics and content development.We created DLF to ultimately assemble the largest fantasy football community on the planet and want YOU to be a part of it.

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
Jeff Haverlack

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  1. Boomer

    April 30, 2012 at 7:20 am

    GREAT article. Would move Pead up to even 8 for a RB needy team. The sitting for a year and then playing concept tends to work out great for RB’s(Shady McCoy, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, MJD, Charles).

  2. OlingerIDPGuru

    April 30, 2012 at 7:26 am

    Very well put Ghost. Very nice innaugural article on DLF.

  3. Joe

    April 30, 2012 at 7:44 am

    Fantastic article. I have 1.01 in my 32 team dynasty league. I am taking luck. Just traded for 1.5 to grab Blackmon or Floyd since I have Beanie Wells on my team I dont need a RB. But, rumor has it Trent Richardson will slide to me. Im not complaining.

    • Jeff Haverlack

      April 30, 2012 at 11:51 am

      Wow … that would be something. Good luck and let us know how it pans out.

    • Irish

      June 30, 2012 at 5:02 pm

      Calling bs on Joe. 32 team league? ” I have Beanie Wells on my team so I don’t need a RB?” WTF? Richardson sliding to 5? Clown post Joe, clown post.

      • SKHAN7UWO

        August 19, 2012 at 6:55 pm

        haha…i agree with Irish

  4. joeday

    April 30, 2012 at 9:34 am

    “Now can he stay healthy?”…does TR have an injury history?

    • Jeff Haverlack

      April 30, 2012 at 10:07 am

      No … he’s been very solid. But as a three down back in the NFL, it’s a question that we ask of every workload player.

      • joeday

        May 2, 2012 at 9:51 am

        oh ok, I thought there was something I missed. I mean you could pretty much say that about any RB in the NFL (as we saw last year). The most wild thing about the RBs in the top 10 in scoring last year, only 3 of the 10 did not miss a single game…Ray Rice (which isnt too surprising), but MJD (who has a pereceived injury history) and Turner (who is always nicked up) surprised me.

  5. tebow

    April 30, 2012 at 10:51 am

    well it looks thin on the rb market for playing time. with so many wrs to choose from its more of a crap shoot than ever. i will be taking wilson w pick 1.3 as martin and rich will be off the board.my real question is should i trade pick 1.6 for bradshaw since im getting wilson? its either that or pick james/hillman. pead is going pick 1.5. wrs,tes and qbs go later in the first round in my league

    • Jeff Haverlack

      April 30, 2012 at 11:15 am

      Yes … I’d do that in a heartbeat personally. But I also wouldn’t be taking Wilson at 1.03. I’d be taking one of the QBs and looking to grow with them or trade them for greater value.

      • tebow

        April 30, 2012 at 11:38 am

        hey thanks jeff for your input,i have to take wilson as i already have brady and will ride him for a few more.qbs aare easy to get in my league or i can just not get bradshaw and pick wilson and luck at pick 6

  6. tebow

    April 30, 2012 at 10:55 am

    and one more sorry guys i have donald brown,ridley and laShoure as my roster bubble guys. i need to keep 2 outta these 3 young backs. i was waiting till after the draft but seems like all three will be the primary/goal like backs for their teams. who should i drop?

    • Jeff Haverlack

      April 30, 2012 at 11:17 am

      Leshoure for me. It’s obvious that the Colts are hoping Brown can stay healthy as he showed promise last year. Big IF. Ridley is going ot have a chance for sure and without BJGE in town, his role could increase significantly. Leshoure is in DET where all RBs go to die. I’d like ot hope that he could someday produce but it’s been a dubious start for him.

      • tebow

        April 30, 2012 at 11:46 am

        i hear what ur saying i was so tempted with lashoure because we saw what smith did last year and that could be lashoure with all the space and goal line shots he will get. i think brown is going to be a lot better with luck,he stayed healthy and gained some muscle,they will run the ball more with luck and those tight ends giving some lanes. i like ridley’s talent the best but they have that other guy they drafted in the 2nd round last year so he me makes me nervous about keeping ridley cuz belly-check likes to run the ball with 5 different guys during the game

      • Coach

        April 30, 2012 at 12:26 pm

        speaking on the NE situation… any chance Shane Vereen does more than hand out towels this year? I have Foster, MJD and BJGE but am really hoping i can get something out of Vereen or Ryan Williams this year.

        • tebow

          April 30, 2012 at 12:46 pm

          vereen is going to be tough but u should for sure to be able to get some picks to the wells owner for williams.if i had wells i would give a 2nd this year and a 2013 3rd round to sure up my zona rbs stable to obtain williams

          • Meens

            May 1, 2012 at 5:56 am

            just put it out on the message board that you would be willing to take any 1st for Ryan Williams. I got a 1st. Alot of people think Beanie stinks and its a matter of “when” not “if” williams takes the job. It only takes one owner.

        • Cyrus Miller

          May 1, 2012 at 10:30 am

          I have Vereen and Ryan Williams as well and am really hoping that one of them becomes a startable RB.

          Honestly, I wouldn’t settle for a 2nd for either one, as their upside if they become the guy is worth a lot more. Maybe an early 2nd this year, so I could take Pead or Miller if they fell.

          Otherwise I view it as a sunk cost and now I just need patience.

  7. J Fizzle

    April 30, 2012 at 11:01 am

    You quoted about Luck “skill set is too great to pass on at 1.01 unless you have a top young quarterback on your roster already”

    Would you consider Philip Rivers worthy enough to bypass Luck?

    • Jeff Haverlack

      April 30, 2012 at 11:20 am

      Oops … accidentally hit the thumbs down vote. 🙂

      Funny you mention that because Rivers is the QB at which point it becomes questionable. I understand the difficulty with taking a QB over Richardson and if I have Rivers it would be really tough and dependent largely on who I have in my stable of RBs.

      If you aren’t rebuilding and have a shot to win it now, I’d lean toward Richardson. If you don’t think you are going to be competitive soon, I’d lean toward one of the QBs

  8. iron Fist

    April 30, 2012 at 11:04 am

    You quoted the above about Luck ” skill set is too great to pass on at 1.01 unless you have a top young quarterback on your roster already”

    Would you consider Philipp Rivers worthy enough to bypass Luck?

  9. Jersey Rob

    April 30, 2012 at 11:54 am

    “Funny you mention that because Rivers is the QB at which point it becomes questionable. I understand the difficulty with taking a QB over Richardson and if I have Rivers it would be really tough and dependent largely on who I have in my stable of RBs.

    If you aren’t rebuilding and have a shot to win it now, I’d lean toward Richardson. If you don’t think you are going to be competitive soon, I’d lean toward one of the QBs”

    In the exact same boat with Rivers. My team is competing, so for me, I went Richardson, and I’m not looking back!

  10. Pingback: 2012 Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Consensus Top 20 | Dynasty … | Pro Openbin

  11. Misfit74

    April 30, 2012 at 1:19 pm

    I think you did a good job in this article of illustrating talent over situation. It will be tempting for less-experienced owner to get impatient and reach for players in better situations than their talent level indicates.

    That said Weeden is about too high on the list. 😉

    • Jeff Haverlack

      April 30, 2012 at 3:19 pm

      Well … personal pre-draft opinion of Weeden was in the 3rd round of a rookie draft but this draft went from bad to worse very quickly and even our RB4 now is Pead. That’s amazing!!

      And any way you slice it, it looks like Weeden is now the starter for the Browns and a first round starting rookie QB has some value that should be above many of the other players that are far more risky.

      That all said, I’m not going berate anyone that simply crosses Weeden off their board altogether. 🙂

    • Jesse

      May 1, 2012 at 9:14 pm

      It will be in the VAST minority of leagues that Weeden goes in the top 25, much less #13. MAYBE 14+ team leagues, and start 2 QB leagues. Lamar Miller isn’t likely to fall to #20 in many either, nor Pead to #15. RB positional scarcity is a reality, excepting leagues that start less than 2 RBs.

  12. KC Guzz

    April 30, 2012 at 9:48 pm

    Funny what the lack of “workhorse” backs is doing to fantasy value of the RB’s. You would think the overall value of the RB would take a similar drop, just as they have for NFL teams. What I am actually seeing happen is that values are getting pushed up for RB rookies, and also for any 2nd-3rd year guys that have been on the fringe who might get more touches going forward or who ended the year strong (Ridley, Spiller, D. Brown). TRich will go #1 every league I’m in regardless of format. In some, Martin and Wilson will go before RG3, maybe even before Luck.

    I’m going to buck the trend and go with Luck 1.02 in a league I’m defending the title, even with Schaub one more year (12 multi-year contracts 4 each of 2,3,4 yrs and cap/RFA/UFA league), Kolb, and Freeman coming off my developmental team (3 years max once drafted). Luck will be playing and throwing 30-32 TD’s 6 years after TRich and the rest are all done.

    In another league, I need more starters on an 8-keeper league- started with all junk last year; mortgaged a lot for Stafford before the deadline. I traded out of 1.02 to get 1.06 and 1.12. i might still get luck or RG3, and then I can go get an extra “keeper” at 1.12. Rebuild done.

  13. bigD

    May 1, 2012 at 2:25 pm

    one guy i’ve got my eye on is rb…gannaway from baylor drafted by the jets in the 6th round. say what you want about a 6th rounder, but he has the size and durability that shonn greene does’nt display on a regular basis for rex ryans liking? if greene goes down, or just gets winded, don’t be surprised to see gannaway come up big.

  14. Greg G.

    May 1, 2012 at 6:52 pm

    I hear that Pead is INDEED the heir apparent in St. Louis. How does that impact his value? I stashed him away like a tulip seed waiting for the day he blossoms into a starter.

    • Jeff Haverlack

      May 2, 2012 at 7:53 am

      Depends on what you read. Most recently the word is that they do view him as the heir apparent, but I also read that he should not be viewed that way. Personally, I don’t view him that way. I don’t think he has the size or every-down ability at this point. We’ll see how he develops through 2012

      • Greg G.

        May 2, 2012 at 3:21 pm

        Thanks Jeff

  15. Joe

    May 1, 2012 at 11:20 pm

    This is a great early perspective on these rookies, great article.

    Couple of questions for you, with the fall of Chris Polk in the draft and his injury concerns where does he deserve to be valued. Before the draft he was a late first/early second in rookie only drafts, but no it’s like a shot in the dark. Where does the potential return outweigh the risk?

    Also, it would be great to have a similar article including defensive players since so many dynasty leagues are also IDP.

    • Jeff Haverlack

      May 7, 2012 at 4:46 pm

      I just took him in a draft at #29 if that helps. Figured he’s worth the risk at that point. He’s still young and I think he has elite vision as well as being a great receiver. He’s a better prospect coming out than Jonathan Dwyer I believe

  16. Brady

    May 4, 2012 at 12:00 pm

    I’ve got picks 1.04 and 1.07 in my upcoming rookie draft. I’m well off at WR and have Philip Rivers at QB but I need a RB (James Starks is a projected starter for me at this point).

    Would you suggest that I trade these two picks for 1.01 and get Richardson? Or should I sit tight where I am and be guaranteed either Luck, RG3, or Martin as well as someone else a few picks later?

    I think my team has the potential to win it all this year if i can grab an upgrade at RB.

    Any insight would be much appreciated!

    • Jeff Haverlack

      May 7, 2012 at 4:47 pm

      If you can … yes. Or target other backs and see if you can land two with those two picks. I wouldn’t reach for David Wilson though personally. Take RGIII or Luck if he’s still there at #4 and BPA at 1.07.

      But your best shot is to package for a great RB or get two lesser tiered RBs for the the two picks.

      • Alan Bauerle

        May 7, 2012 at 6:33 pm

        Ok I traded the 1.3, 2.3,n 3.3 plus 2 throw ins-nobody special for Ahmad Bradshaw, Antonio brown, and the 1.5. This is my roster 1ppr 6td for everyone.

        J Stewart, Bradshaw,Ridley,Blount,BScott
        M Wallace, Antonio Brown, DHB, Deon Branch, Ramses Barden
        B Pettigrew, J Cook
        M Nugent
        Jets D

        At 1.5 Wilson will be there. The big 4 rookies will be gone. Should I go wr n get blackmon or Floyd, or get bradshaws shiney new handcuff..thanks any help much appreciated

  17. james r stewart

    May 11, 2012 at 6:09 am

    ppr dynasty league, traded Fitzy last season for 1.03 and 3.03. franchise tagged cj2k and have helu, I have 1 year left on brady also have newton cheap and for 4 years. richardson will go 1st, martin 2nd, do i take rgiii ?

    • Eric Dickens

      July 25, 2012 at 6:11 am

      I think you have a lot of options sitting where you’re at w/ your QB situation. I’d entertain offers to move down & pick up value. If I stayed put, I’d take Luck over RGIII, but that’s more of a preference thing.

  18. ozzie mesa

    May 17, 2012 at 9:07 pm

    Great article, well I have huge decisions coming up I am rebuilding I have 1,2 , 1.5 and the 1.6 picks per trades. What do you think about if I can get Luck at 1.2 and pick both floyd and blackman with my 1.5 and 1.6? or should I go wilson and floyd need some opinions

    • Eric Dickens

      July 25, 2012 at 6:13 am

      I think you should go BPA at 5/6 which would be Blackmon/Floyd for me if they’re still there. I have Wilson slightly lower.

  19. PatrickC

    June 27, 2012 at 9:18 pm

    First off I’d like to say great article I really enjoyed it. Now, I have the 1.04 and 1.07 and not sure who I should take. My mind is all over the place at this point. Qb’s are Cutler,Schaub,andPalmer rb’s are forte, r.rice, m.lynch, t.hightower,, wr’s are b.marshall, m.austiinte is v.davis have more but these are the mai.n guys. What do i do??????

    • Eric Dickens

      July 25, 2012 at 6:16 am

      The first thing I’d do is decide who I liked better between Luck/RGIII, as at least one of those will likely fally to you and would be a good pick for you.

      I’d probably start shopping either Palmer or Schaub packaged w/ another player to upgrade at WR & make space for Luck/RGIII.

      At 1.07, you have several options: Sit tight and take the best player available that falls to you or shop the pick for someone producing right now. Many owners will overpay for a rookie pick right before the draft, especially if they don’t have a 1st round pick or have a guy they are eyeing.

  20. Andrew

    July 24, 2012 at 10:51 pm

    16 team dynasty league:

    I have the following first round picks:


    Current team:
    Qb- Vick
    RB- Mathews
    RB- Daniel Thomas
    WR- Harvin
    WR- Desean Jackson
    TE- Witten

    Debating on my first two picks. I will have two of the big three. Just can’t decide if I go luck and then take rg3 or Richardson at 3.

    The 2 pick team desperately needs a qb so I could land luck and t rich.


    • Eric Dickens

      July 25, 2012 at 6:19 am

      Wow, nice work on accumulating all those high picks…

      I personally wouldn’t risk the owner at 1.02 taking Richardson or trading the pick to someone who would. Having the 1.03 gives you the luxury of knowing you’ll get at least one of Luck/RGIII, so I’d take TR at 1.01.

      If you don’t, you run the risk of an owner (like myself) trading a QB to the guy at 1.02 in order to snag Richardson if you pass him over. With the rest of your 1st round picks, you can either take the BPA or use them as trade bait for current players.

      • Peter

        July 25, 2012 at 7:32 am

        I absolutely concur with Eric’s advise. I remember a similar scenario when I had two early first round picks with one in between and I wanted to draft Percy Harvin (I needed a WR) and either Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy (which at the time I was fine with either). I picked Donald Brown (wrong choice there) and the next pick took Harvin so I “ended up with” LeSean McCoy too. Even though Harvin has been up and down I wish I had taken him and let one of those two RBs “fall” to me later.

  21. Pingback: Late Round Freak Alert: Georgia Tech's Darren Waller - RotoViz


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