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Exclusive NFL Draft LIVE Pick-by-Pick Analysis

Well, that’s it!

A pretty fun weekend all in all.  We’ll have major analysis coming shortly, so stay tuned. There are a ton of free agents who weren’t picked as well. That list is highlighted by Kellen Moore, Vontaze Burfict and Chris Polk. We’ll have to see where they end up here in the next couple of days.

250. San Diego Chargers – Edwin Baker, RB Michigan State

One more late sleeper to think about. This is a pretty good landing spot and he’ll provide competition for Curtis Brinkley.

229. Philadelphia Eagles – Bryce Brown, RB Kansas State

Here’s an interesting pick.

Brown’s collegiate career did not exactly go as planned after being a highly regarded high school runner.  After stints at Tennessee and Kansas State, Brown declared for the draft after just 104 career carries. He was involved in three different NCAA inquiries during his collegiate career as well.

Nobody really knows how good he could be, but the Eagles hope they have something here. It’s conceivable that he could push Dion Lewis to back up LeSean McCoy.

He’s the very definition of a project.

[The agony of Chris Polk continues]

202 – New York Jets  -Terrance Ganaway, RB Baylor

Kendall Wright and RGIII weren’t the only players to lead the Baylor offense – just ask the Washington Huskies who saw Ganaway torch them for 200 yards and five touchdowns in the Alamo Bowl. For the year, Ganaway had 1,547 yards and 21 touchdowns. He’s a big kid at 6′ and 240 pounds, but he was still able to average more than six yards per carry, proving he’s more than just a goal line back.

Don’t sleep on Ganaway – I don’t think anyone believes Shonn Greene is the answer. I, for one, am not sold on Bilal Powell or Joe McKnight, either.

198 – Baltimore Ravens – Tommy Streeter, WR Miami

Streeter was one of our favorite risers in the draft, but it looks like he ran out of yeast! Going in the sixth round is a disappointment, but going to the Ravens shouldn’t be. With Anquan Boldin declining, Streeter could have a chance to develop and see the field here in a couple of years.

191 – Cincinnati Bengals – Daniel “Boom” Herron, RB Ohio State

Herron’s stock dropped this season, but this is a great landing spot for a deep running back sleeper. Herron will find himself battling BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott for carries, but neither of those two is likely any type of long term answer for the Bengals. It’s unlikely Herron is either, but that shouldn’t stop you from considering him somewhere around the third round of your rookie draft.

185 – Arizona Cardinals – Ryan Lindley, QB San Diego State

Want a deep rookie quarterback sleeper? He needs a lot of work on his accuracy, but there’s some talent here. With the collective performances of Kevin Kolb and John Skelton not being exactly stellar, Lindley is a player to keep in your back pocket if you’re looking for a young quarterback prospect in your rookie draft.

182 – Kansas City Chiefs – Cyrus Gray, RB Texas A&M

He was super productive and has a nice body of work at A&M. He’s obviously no threat to Jamaal Charles, but he could realistically make Peyton Hillis’ contract really be just a one year thing. Gray will be another back to consider somewhere around round three.

173 – Washington Redskins – Alfred Morris, RB FAU

Of course, the Redskins WOULD spend their extra draft picks on a backup quarterback and a running back.

Unbelievable.

No running back in the Mike Shanahan stable can be discounted and Morris was a workhorse at FAU. Questions will remain about the level of competition he faced and about how many carries he’s already taken (726 carries the past three years), but he fits the bill at 5’10” and 220 pounds.

He could get cut or start week one.  Draft accordingly.

170 – Indianapolis Colts – Vick Ballard, RB Mississippi State

I take it back, here’s my favorite sleeper from the fourth round on. I’m on record saying I don’t believe Donald Brown or Delone Carter are the long term answers in Indianapolis.

Ballard has some flaws (he fumbles a lot, for one), but he averaged over six yards a carry and had 29 touchdowns in the last two seasons.  We recently had a post focusing on late round running back success from the SEC and Ballard fits the category.

I could see him go as high as the late second round in rookie drafts.

168 – Oakland Raiders – Juron Criner, WR Arizona

The Raiders have somewhere around five picks in the next seven years, so naturally they use one on a receiver. Unbelievable.

166. Cincinnati – Marvin Jones, WR UNC

If you want a late round receiver to target in dynasty leagues, here’s one. Jones could easily compete with Jordan Shipley for slot duties for the Bengals. Adding Sanu and Jones in the draft is a pretty good haul for the Bengals. Jones is a highly underrated performer – he doesn’t have the numbers that other receivers have in this class, but much of that was a result of poor quarterback play.  At this point, Jones is my favorite sleeper from the fourth round on.

159. Pittsburgh Steelers – Chris Rainey, RB Florida

Don’t freak out just yet if you own Isaac Redman. Rainey isn’t being brought in to replace Redman, but to be a special complement to him instead. He can help on special teams, in the backfield, or even as a third down weapon. He’s a bit undersized, but he’s super fast. If not for some off the field issues, he probably would have went higher.

I could see owners make a case to make a run at Rainey in the mid-second or early third round of rookie drafts as a “boom or bust” type of pick.

134. Minnesota Vikings – Greg Childs, WR Arkansas

Is Bobby Petrino secretly trying to get the Vikings head coaching job? That makes not one, but TWO different Arkansas receivers taken by the Vikings. Jarius Wright and Childs are bound to have some good camp battles in an effort to make a name for themselves. You have to figure one breaks through. If Childs can regain his pre-injury form, it could just be him.

122. New Orleans Saints – Nick Toon, WR Wisconsin

Sleeper alert!

Toon was one of my favorite late round receivers and he couldn’t have gone to a better place. Outside of Marques Colston, the depth chart in New Orleans isn’t set in stone. He’ll compete with the likes of Adrian Arrington and Joe Morgan to make an impact this year. One of those players is bound to emerge and he has as good a chance as any.

I’d look at Toon in round three of rookie draft, maybe even early in the round.

121. Houston Texans – Keshawn Martin, WR Michigan State

I guess the Texans are serious about trading Jacoby Jones, eh? For my money, this is a pretty good spot for him to land. Martin is kind of a swiss army knife of sorts and will compete with Devier Posey for playing time. Posey has never been dominant in any one area, so keep your eye on Martin – he should be taken late in rookie drafts.

118. Minnesota – Jarius Wright, WR Arkansas

An extremely productive receiver in the SEC, Wright finds himself in a pretty good spot with the Vikings. He projects as a slot receiver, but could surprise. Productive receivers in a conference like the SEC should never be dismissed.

He’s in the mix in the third or fourth round of rookie drafts/

116. Cincinnati Bengals – Orson Charles, TE Georgia

You think he may want to be re-thinking his decision to leave school early now? After being taken in the fourth round, Charles finds himself playing behind Jermaine Gresham in Cincinnati. While he could develop quickly and play in some two tight end sets, it’s hard to see much value here.

111. Chicago Bears – Evan Rodriguez, TE Temple

You think the Bears regret trading away Greg Olsen now that Mike Martz is out of town? Rodriguez is a little undersized, but will have a chance in Chicago. Much like Green, he should be monitored. However, Rodriguez could find playing time a little earlier in his career.

110. San Diego Chargers – Ladarius Green, TE La Lafayette

The Chargers had great luck with another small school tight end from Kent State (Antonio Gates) and Green could develop into his eventual replacement. Tight end wasn’t an area of strength in this draft, however. Green is worth a late round flier at this point, but likely not a player to covet in the first three rounds of a rookie draft.

107. Kansas City Chiefs – Devon Wylie, WR Fresno State

He’s small. Like real small (5’9″, 187 pounds).

That being said, the Chiefs are a team without much depth at wideout and Wylie could be a PPR league stash in dynasty leagues. He’s an injury risk, but go back and watch the combine – this kid was a standout in virtually every drill.

Wylie will be a pick worth considering in the third round of rookie drafts, especially in PPR leagues.

106. Seattle Seahawks – Robert Turbin, RB Utah State

Now we’re cooking!

We’ve been watching Turbin for a long time.  At 5’10” and 222 pounds, he ran a 40 time under 4.5 at the combine. Doing that at his listed weight is notable.  He’s strong and quick and has the size and skill combination that will likely eventually earn him a chance to start at some point during his NFL career.  He’s an accomplished runner and as a receiver out of the backfield.

Marshawn Lynch recently signed a big contract, but he’s had a lot of issues in the past.  If he suddenly goes from Beast Mode to Feast Mode, Turbin is going to be waiting in the wings.

Turbin is certainly going to be in the mix in the second round of rookie drafts. Personally, I like the pick.

104. Carolina Panthers – Joe Adams, WR Arkansas

Adams should make an immediate impact on special teams and could eventually be groomed to take the place of Steve Smith. Personally, I like the spot for him.  The Panthers have been searching for a good, young WR to step ever since they drafted Dwayne Jarrett. David Gettis will have his chance, but he’s still recovering from injury.

Adams makes for a nice pick in the late second or early third round of a rookie draft.

102. Washington Redskins – Kirk Cousins, QB Michigan State

And that brings an official end to the John Beck and Rex Grossman era in Washington. Most dynasty league owners were hoping Cousins would have landed in a place like Kansas City where he could push to start at some point. In Washington, he’ll be holding the clipboard for RGIII.

The best case scenario for Cousins (outside of RGIII getting hurt, which we’d never hope to see) is that he develops strongly over the next few years and gets traded to a team in need of a quarterback. As such, Cousins is going to be a late round flyer at best in rookie drafts.

Ugh.

100. Cleveland Browns – Travis Benjamin, WR Miami

I expected Streeter to be taken ahead of Benjamin, but there’s no doubt this kid has speed, as indicated by his 4.32 40.  As with most receivers taken this low, he’s a project. However, there’s some upside here since the Browns are so thin at wideout. Benjamin is a name to look at likely in the third round of rookie drafts.

97. Miami Dolphins – Lamar Miller, RB Miami

Interesting.

Miller was one of our highest rated running backs and now finds himself staying home with the Dolphins. Reggie Bush had a breakout season and will remain the starter for now, but now has to contend with both Miller AND Daniel Thomas for carries now.  More than anything, this is really bad news for Thomas for this season. He was a highly regarded draft prospect last year and now is looking more and more like a first round rookie draft pick bust. Bush could leave via free agency soon, leaving the backfield to Miller and Thomas, but this is a bit of a mess.

Many owners will automatically anoint Miller as the starter over Bush and draft him accordingly, but that would be jumping the gun. Miller has talent for sure, but fourth round running backs aren’t typically taken to start. You do have to take into account the injury history of Bush, though.

For my money, Miller should be taken somewhere in the early second round of rookie drafts as a player with a lot of upside. He’s just turned in to a major “boom or bust” candidate being taken this late in the draft.

I would have liked to have seen the Packers get Miller, but it wasn’t meant to be.

96. St. Louis Rams – Chris Givens, WR Wake Forest

Speed, speed, speed.  The Rams were obviously not happy with their receiver depth chart, so they’ve now added Givens and Brian Quick to their roster. Givens is a bit of a project, but the outlooks for Danario Alexander, Austin Pettis and Greg Salas is getting pretty dim. At the very least, Givens could give them some return ability.

He’ll be considered with a host of other wideouts in the third round of rookie drafts.

 

Welcome to Saturday, the day Lamar Miller may actually find a team!?!

Injury concerns and an apparent lack of smarts have started a freefall that not many expected with Miller.  Chris Polk is also hanging out there and hoping for a team this morning. There are still some teams with needs, but be warned – this is getting to the point now where roster spots won’t be guaranteed. Rankings are going to need to be adjusted accordingly. Think Jonathan Dwyer here.

There are lots of other players out there who merit watching today as well. Prospects like Kirk Cousins, Edwin Baker, Robert Turbin, Tauren Poole, Chris Rainey, Cyrus Gray, Joe Adams, Nick Toon, Keshawn Martin, Marvin McNutt, Marvin Jones, Juron Criner and Dwight Jones come to mind, in addition to Polk and Miller.

{Note: We’ll be again posting only the fantasy relevant choices today, and starting out with them hour by hour until 11:00 PDT while we start work on completing the rookie draft cheat sheet for you. After that, we’ll be back to the more frequent pick-by-pick updates.  Refresh often and we’ll keep you up-to-date!}

92. Indianapolis Colts – TY Hilton, WR Florida International

Well, I guess the Colts are serious about surrounding Luck with some weapons, eh?  We had Hilton ranked pretty low because of his size (5’9″), but this seems like a good spot.  He’s extremely fast, so he fits a need since Reggie Wayne, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen aren’t exactly going to run “go” routes on every play.

Hilton is yet another in the massive group of receivers who are going to be in the mix in the mid second to mid third rounds. Separating these guys will end up being a matter of talent over situation and a whole lot of dice rolling.

[Chris Polk, Lamar Miller and Kirk Cousins are all on the board]

88. Philadelphia Eagles – Nick Foles, QB Arizona

There had been some rumblings that the Eagles were going to look for another backup quarterback with the issues that Michael Vick has had with injuries. Mike Kafka has seemed serviceable enough, but Foles will come in and compete with him for the backup job.

Foles regressed this year and his offseason was a total disaster. He showed a lack of arm strength and poor accuraccy at the combine and was the consensus scout’s pick as the biggest disappointment there.

That being said, Foles has a ton of experience and is a really good leader. This isn’t an awful landing spot for him and he could find his way up the depth chart if he can beat Kafka.

Foles can be drafted in a dynasty league, but not likely until the late third or early fourth round at best.

84. Baltimore Ravens – Bernard Pierce, RB Temple

Sigh.

You can scratch one more running back off the board as Pierce lands in a “not so desirable” location. With Ricky Williams gone, the Ravens really needed a backup and Pierce fits the bill for sure. He has decent measurables, but struggles some in the passing game. He could be a very nice (and possibly necessary) handcuff for Ray Rice, but Pierce likely won’t see much time for a while unless the Rice contract situation gets really messy.

He’s likely a late second to early third round prospect in a rookie draft. He could go higher for Rice owners.

83. Cincinnati Bengals – Mohamed Sanu, WR Rutgers

His poor forty time at the combine hurt him and he doesn’t seem to be overly dynamic. He’s also only had one great year of production. However, there are some scouts who absolutely love his potential. The Bengals have a need for receiver outside of AJ Green and Sanu will get his chances for sure.

Sanu is yet another receiver who is going to be in the mix in round two of the rookie draft.

Where is Lamar Miller!  Atlanta is coming up and that could be a nice spot…

78. Miami Dolphins – Michael Egnew, TE Missouri

Egnew is a bit of a sleeper at tight end, but he’s big, strong and has a knack for making big plays. The Dolphins are taking the Colts approach of surrounding a new rookie quarterback with tight ends. With so few receiving weapons, Egnew makes for a nice sleeper and could be a third or fourth round rookie pick.

75. Seattle Seahawks – Russell Wilson, QB Wisconsin

Love it for the Seahawks. Much is made of his height, but he played behind an enormous offensive line at Wisconsin. He’s an absolute winner and if intangibles were measured more highly, he’d have been a first round pick.

Wilson is a total gamer and he’ll give Tarvaris Jackson a run for his money to be the backup to Matt Flynn. He could be used in some different packages even as early as this year. There will be rookies to keep your eyes on this offseason and Wilson is at the top of the list.

As it is, Wilson is a late round flier in a rookie draft, but he’s a kid you’d love to roster, track and study.

70. Jacksonville Jaguars – Bryan Anger P California

They say you draft for need, right?  Well, Anger fits a big one for the Jags.  If Blaine Gabbert doesn’t develop, Anger is my favorite for team MVP.

69. Buffalo Bills – TJ Graham, WR NC State

Speaking of receivers I had ahead of Posey, here’s Graham. The Bills have a need there and currently have players like Donald Jones, Marcus Easley and David Nelson competing for the spot across from Stevie Johnson.

As expected, there’s going to be a huge mix of receivers in play in the second round of rookie drafts – Graham will be one of them.

68. Houston Texans – Devier Posey, WR Ohio State

Hmm, interesting.

Posey fits a serious need for the Texans and he could quite honestly start for them next year. However, he’s not nearly the best receiver in this class and I had at least five or six ahead of him on my board.  It’s the classic case of talent vs. situation with Posey.

I’d expect him to be a late second round pick in drafts.

67. Denver Broncos – Ronnie Hillman, RB SDSU

Interesting. We expected the Broncos to go for a running back, but Hillman is a bit of a surprise here. Willis McGahee will be the starter, but Hillman could very well be the heir apparent and a change of pace back this season.

Hillman is a smaller back and has dynamic rushing ability, but you can’t help but to think this was a little early for him. The question will be if he can really hold up. At just 200 pounds, he could use a little more bulk.

Meanwhile, this is a clear indictment on Knowshon Moreno, as if he needed one anyway.

For those of you who like to roll the dice, he’ll be gone by the middle of the second round.

64. Indianapolis Colts – Dwayne Allen, TE Clemson

Luck did prefer his Tight Ends at Stanford, but this was a surprising pick, especially with their lack of talent at running back, DL, well, everywhere else.  If Allen and Fleener can be the next Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, this could work. Odd selection, though.

Allen is likely a third round prospect in a rookie draft.

[That completes Round Two.  We’ll be focusing strictly on the players who have fantasy relevance from this point forward, rather than covering every pick.  After all, who cares about the C taken in the 6th round.  We WILL focus on anyone’s name that seems funny, though.]

63. NY Giants – Reuben Randle, WR LSU

You know how we always say the draft class for fantasy always looks better before the draft.

Randle was one of our favorite sleeper wideouts going in, but this throws some cold water on his value. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz aren’t going anywhere. It’s possible that Randle fills the void left by Mario Manningham, but that’s go be some inconsistent production for sure.

This is very bad news for the likes of Ramses Barden and Jerel Jernigan, though.  They have one more player to compete with now.

Ugh.

62. Green Bay Packers – Casey Hayward, CB Vanderbilt

Another Packer pick and another pass on a running back like Lamar Miller. Wow.

61. San Francisco 49ers – LaMichael James, RB Oregon

Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, Anthony Dixon, Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James?

Wow.

Jim Harbaugh certainly knows James well from his time at Stanford, but this seems like an odd fit. You have to figure Dixon and Jacobs are probably out after a season (if they both make the team), but Frank Gore is aging. Would it make sense to pair James and Hunter?  James really isn’t a special teams option with Ted Ginn back in the bay area, either.  I guess this is simply a team really taking the best player available approach.

I love James’ heart and ability and have seen a ton of him, but this is not the best place for him. Talent always comes through, but he’s going to be a deep stash for a while.  We had him ranked at #18, but that’s likely not going to hold up. I would imagine James is likely going to be a third round pick in rookie draft.

{Meanwhile, Reuben Randle sits in the Green Room}

60. Baltimore Ravens – Kelechi Osemele, OT Iowa State

From a football standpoint, this is solid. From a fantasy standpoint, it would be great for the Ravens to get Joe Flacco at least one more receiving weapon.

59. Philadelphia Eagles – Vinny Curry, DE Marshall

More pass rushers for Andy Reid. Not a bad idea with a guy named Griffin rolling around everywhere in Washington.

58. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Lavonte David, LB Nebraska

Mason Foster was a bit of a disaster and the Bucs need serious help on defense. Worth the price here.

57. Denver Broncos – Brock Osweiler, QB Arizona State

Well, believe it or not, he’s even taller than Konz!

Osweiler possesses the arm strength, height and release the NFL looks for.  He’s has more of a 3/4 style delivery, but he can get away with it because he’s so tall.  Osweiler did not work out at the combine, instead choosing to throw at ASU’s Pro Day, which may have been a mistake in the end.  He’s a project and will benefit greatly from sitting behind Peyton Manning in Denver for as long as possible – let’s just hope he learns more from Manning than Curtis Painter did.

For a dynasty owner who is patient, Osweiler could make for a nice stash, much like Ryan Mallett last year. He’s likely going to merit some consideration in the late second or early third round from a team without any glaring needs and who’s looking for a nice little project at quarterback.

56. Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike Adams, OT Ohio State

Isaac Redman is looking better and better for 2012.

55. Atlanta Falcons – Peter Konz, C Wisconsin

As with most linemen from Wisconsin, Konz is around 8 feet tall and weighs around 700 pounds.

54. Detroit Lions – Ryan Broyles, WR Oklahoma

Wow.

Broyles is one of my favorite players in this entire draft. If not for an unfortunate knee injury last year, he would have likely been a first round pick. One of the lasting memories I have from last season was seeing Broyles sobbing on the sidelines after sustaining his season ending injury. The kid has heart and ability.

Now, to the bad news.

Going to Detroit is NOT the best destination. The Lions have been looking for a complementary player to Megatron for a long time, but it seems they have it in Titus Young. Throw in Nate Burleson and it’s tough to see what kind of a role Broyles can have. Look for him to spend most of next year rehabbing and understanding the offense, then challenging for playing time in 2013.

He’s a great story, but likely a third round pick in a rookie draft.

53. Cincinnati Bengals – Devon Still, DT Penn State

I guess receiver and running back aren’t priorities as some have speculated!?!

52. Tennessee Titans – Zach Brown, OLB North Carolina

Not seemingly a threat to young Colin McCarthy (whew), but he fits a need for the Titans, unlike Kendall Wright the day before.

51. Green Bay Packers – Jerel Worthy, DT Michigan State

James Starks owners are thrilled as the Packers have still yet to address the position.  Could they really go into the year with Starks as the starter?

50. St. Louis Rams – Isaiah Pead, RB Cincinnati

Finally.

As DLF_ Jeff says…

“He’s a bit undersized, but is smooth and instinctive showing a clever style and natural vision as a runner.  In the passing game, Pead is a dangerous weapon and he catches the ball fluidly, reaching top speed quickly.  Note that Pead’s productivity did decrease as his carries increased which could be a concern at the next level, displaying that he may tend to wear down with an increased workload.”

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Well, he won’t have the problem of an increased workload at first with Jackson in town. However, he very well could be the heir apparent to him in St. Louis. We had him as our 17th rated player on our board, but he’s likely going to go earlier than that in a dynasty draft to an owner who wants to be very, very patient.

Pead won’t be a serious threat to Jackson’s starting job, but he will take some carries away here and there. This is much better news for Jackson owners than the addition of Trent Richardson would have been.  Jackson needs a break, not to be replaced.

He should be considered in the late first and early second rounds in rookie drafts.

49. San Diego Chargers – Kendall Reyes, DT Connecticut

With every passing Chargers pick that isn’t a running back, the possibility of Ryan Mathews being a top five dynasty running back rises.

48. New England Patriots – Tavon Wilson, S Illinois

As we’ve said, it’s tough to project S and CB production, but the Pats have now passed multiple times on running backs. Could they be that confident in Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley?

It’s starting to look that way.

47. Seattle Seahawks – Bobby Wagner, LB Utah State

The Seahawks need players to replace the loss of David Hawthorne and they have to hope Wagner can help. They also have KJ Wright and Barrett Ruud, so it’s a bit of a head scratcher.

46. Philadelphia Eagles – Mychal Kendricks, LB California

Here’s a nice piece for the Eagles. He likely won’t man the middle with DeMeco Ryans in town, but he needs to be monitored in the preseason or in drafts as a possible IDP add. It’s obvious now the Eagles weren’t sold on Jamar Chaney and Casey Matthews.

45. Chicago – Alshon Jeffery, WR South Carolina

Ugh. Great pick for the Bears. Bad pick for fantasy leagues.

There’s no doubt the Bears were serious about addressing their anemic receiving corps who hasn’t had a 1,000 yard receiver since Marty Booker in 2002.

The Bears brought in Brandon Marshall via a trade from the Dolphins and he was Jay Cutler’s former target monster. Marshall caught more than 100 passes and had at least 1,200 yards in both 2007 and 2008.

If you have Cutler, you have to be excited. Jeffery is certainly a talent, he’s just an enigma as well. His numbers should have been markedly better being a Spurrier-led offense in South Carolina. His decision to skip the combine workouts was a terrible one.

In Chicago, fantasy owners are going to be asking themselves if Cutler is good enough (and if the weather cooperates enough) for him to sustain fantasy viability for not one, but TWO receivers.  With Jeffery in town, that’s major bad news for the likes of Earl Bennett, Johnny Knox and Devin Hester.

Jeffery is going to merit consideration in the second round of rookie drafts, but he’s likely going to be a guy who you hope gets taken before you so you simply don’t have the choice on pulling the trigger.

44. Kansas City – Jeff Allen, OG Illinois

Please keep Jamaal Charles healthy.  Please.

43. New York Jets – Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech

Now we get something fun!

If the draft was predicated solely on workouts, combines and measurables, Hill would have gone early in the first. The Jets have to hope he’s the real deal. After all, he caught just 49 passes in his career.

Sure, he played in a freaky weird offense at Georgia Tech, but you still want to see some level of dominance, right? If the Jets get anything close to the production of the last two highly regarded Tech receivers (Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas), they’ll be thrilled.

We had a debate between Stephen Hill and Kendall Wright recently and it was actually pretty close. With Wright landing in a less than desirable spot in Tennessee and Hill going to New York to battle Chaz Schilens, it may be even closer.

Hill is the ultimate boom or bust pick at receiver. The optimist will say he’ll give Mark Sanchez the type of player Braylon Edwards was supposed to be. The pessimist will say he’ll bring Tim Tebow to the fold sooner rather than later.

Hill is going to merit consideration in the early part of the second round in rookie drafts.

Feel lucky?

42. Miami Dolphins – Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford

If you’re going to actually put Ryan Tannehill in a game, you better get some guys to protect him.  The Dolphins still need some receivers, that’s for sure.

Speaking of receivers, there are a LOT of them on the board, including Alshon Jeffery, Reuben Randle and Stephen Hill. When this run on offensive linemen ends, it’s likely these receivers are going to go quickly.

41. Buffalo Bills – Cordy Glenn, OT Georgia

Pretty good value here for the Bills.  They really wanted Ryan Kalil and were offering the Vikings #10 and this pick here at #41 to get him earlier yesterday. Instead, they get Stephon Gilmore and had Glenn fall to him here.

Nice.

40. Carolina Panthers – Amini Silatolu, OG Midwestern State

What, no running backs available?

39. St. Louis Rams – Janoris Jenkins, CB North Alabama

Well, Jeff Fisher isn’t scared, that’s for sure.  Jenkins comes with tons of baggage (like PacMan Jones-type baggage.) However, he’s a super talented player and fits a major need for the Rams.  On talent alone, he could rival Morris Claiborne, but that’s pretty much where the comparisons end. If he pans out, this is a steal for the Rams. If he doesn’t, St. Louis likely has a Lawrence Phillips type of bust.

Are the Rams ever going to get Steven Jackson some help?

38. Jacksonville Jaguars – Andre Branch, DE Clemson

Another spot where a running back could have been taken. Do the Jags have that much faith in Rashad Jennings to come back and back up MJD?  Hard to say for sure on a team with this many needs.

37. Cleveland Browns – Mitchell Schwartz, OT California

After taking Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden yesterday, the Browns choose to attempt to help them out on the O-line. There are still major questions at receiver for them, so stay tuned.

36. The Denver Broncos – Derek Wolfe, DT Cincinnati

Nice to see Terrell Davis again and owners of Willis McGahee owners smile as he didn’t announce the name of LaMichael James, who has been rumored to be on the radars of the Broncos here.

35. Baltimore Ravens – Courtney Upshaw, LB Alabama

Perfect fit for the Ravens.  Here’s a guy who can play a lot of positions on defense (DE and LB) and play them very hard. He lands in a nice spot where he’ll be mentored by some of the best in Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs.

34. Indianapolis Colts – Coby Fleener, TE Stanford

…and somewhere out there, Andrew Luck is smiling. Fleener is the top tight end prospect and now gets to start his career alongside his college quarterback.

Nice.

There were some better places for Fleener to go, but the Colts have a clear need and Luck will most certainly use him as a nice safety valve in the offense. We had him ranked right around #16 in our pre-draft collaborative rankings and that seems about right. Fleener is big, strong and fast. Many wondered if his production was just a byproduct of playing with Luck.

Ironically, we’ll never know.

33. St. Louis Rams – Brian Quick, WR Appalachian State

Nice.  Roger Goodell announces it as the 2002 NFL Draft before the round starts.  Can the Rams take Julius Peppers? Seeing that it’s actually 2012, the Rams settled for Quick.

It’s a bit of a stunner, really.

There’s no doubt the Rams had a big need at the position with a depth chart consisting of Steve Smith, Danario Alexander, Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson, Greg Salas, Austin Pettis and Dominique Curry.

We had Quick ranked in the 20’s in our initial rankings, but expected players like Alshon Jeffery, Reuben Randle and Stephen Hill to all be picked ahead of him.  He has great size, but his body of work is really small.

Taking a relatively unknown guy when you have such a need goes to show just how much they much have liked Quick. He needs time to develop, but can the Rams give it to him?

Regardless, Quick is a guy to consider now in the second round of draft since he landed in such a great spot.

Friday, April 27th

Welcome to day two!

The first and second rounds of rookie drafts will likely round into form today.  As it stands, Andrew Luck (IND), Robert Griffin III (WAS), Trent Richardson (CLE), Justin Blackmon (JAX) and Doug Martin (TB) likely make up the top five in some order.  Michael Floyd (ARI), David Wilson (NYG) and a host of others will all be angling to be drafted at the bottom half of the round as well.

There are a ton of players to track today, which was the day I was looking forward to the most.

Notable players on the board: Coby Fleener, Lamar Miller, LaMichael James, Chris Polk, Isaiah Pead, Stephen Hill, Reuben Randle and Alshon Jeffrey. 

32. New York Giants – David Wilson, RB NYG

Hmm. Remember what I said about hoping Cleveland would pass on Richardson so it would open up better places for running backs. Yeah, this isn’t the best.

Wilson is super fast and incredibly athletic, but has had some serious issues with inconsistencies and fumbling – those won’t sit well with Tom Coughlin,

For Ahmad Bradshaw, this isn’t great news. Wilson is likely no threat to challenge him for the lead role, but it’s obvious the Giants are trying to create a committee of backs to help keep Bradshaw healthy. That’s not great new for his dynasty value.

The Giants are also a pass first team with Eli Manning, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks around. The player most affected is Da’Rel Scott, though. He’s a very talented player and nice young prospect, but the depth chart just got a lot more crowded.

Wilson is going to be a player to consider in the bottom half of round one. He’s super talented and Bradshaw does get nicked a lot  – there were just better places for him to end up in the short term. He still retains a lot of long term value, though.

The debate of Martin vs. Wilson in a rookie draft is effectively over, though. Martin is going to go first in virtually every one.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Doug Martin, RB Boise State

Nice!

Martin is a solid all around back and will challenge LeGarrette Blount for carries right away. Most will simply say Blount will turn into a “change of pace” back and short yardage player. I question that because I doubt the Bucs want to change the pace to “ineffective.” I think Martin will be the opening day starter, without a doubt and I think this effectively kills most of Blount’s dynasty value.

With the addition of Vincent Jackson to the offense and the existence of Kellen Winslow, Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn, defenses won’t likely be able to stack the box against Martin. Of course, Josh Freeman is going to be the key to that.

Regardless, this is a nice destination for the former Bronco. New Coach Greg Schiano wants to run a more ground oriented offense and he now has his guy. Martin gives Tampa the best running threat they’ve had since Cadillac Williams – let’s just hope for a longer career.

From a dynasty perspective, Martin is right in the mix with Luck, Richardson, Blackmon and RGIII as being the top five picks in some order for this year’s rookie draft.

30. San Francisco 49ers – AJ Jenkins, WR Illinois

Now this one is interesting!

The 49ers are obviously not set on the Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, Mario Manningham connection long term. Kyle Williams can pack his bags for sure with Jenkins and Ted Ginn in town, though.

Jenkins is fast and productive. He’ll probably be a developmental player for a year, but the 49ers can get away from Moss and Manningham rather easily if Mario can’t catch and Moss moons a restaurant owner next season.

I’d file away Jenkins as a nice sleeper to target somewhere in the late second round. Many dynasty leaguers will dismiss him because of the stacked depth chart ahead of him.

Veteran ones won’t make that mistake, knowing that’s a short term problem.

29. Minnesota Vikings – Harrison Smith, CB Notre Dame

Sigh #2.

I was hoping the Vikings would have traded up to take a shot at Stephen Hill. I would have liked to see that.  The Vikes needed some help on the backside, so it’s a solid pick. Seems like they must be pretty set on Peterson’s health, eh?

28. Green Bay Packers – Nick Perry, LB/DE USC

Sigh.

I was personally hoping the Packers would have gone for Doug Martin to fill a need at running back, but their defense really did need a boost.  It’s going to be interesting to see if Martin and/or Stephen Hill make it out of the first round.

27. Cincinnati Bengals – Kevin Zeitler, OG Wisconsin

Again, it’s not flashy, but it’s effective. BGE and Bernard Scott need all the help they can get and if Andy Dalton can get one more half a second, AJ Green can make use of it.

26. Houston Texans – Whitney Mercilus, DE Illinois

Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are gone. You do the math.

25. New England Patriots – Dont’a Hightower, LB Alabama

Put this guy next to Jerod Mayo and try to run the ball against us.  We dare you! Brandon Spikes is on notice because Hightower is a bona fide stud. Three reasons why Hightower will be a stud:

1.) The Patriots always get the steal of the draft.
2.) I hate the Patriots.
3.) I liked Hightower.

Now I just need Mike Shanahan to trade up for Doug Martin.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – David DeCastro, G Stanford

Much like Detroit, the Steelers are focused on keeping their oft-injured quarterback upright. They may regret this pick, though after who was taken next.

23. Detroit Lions – Riley Reiff, OT Iowa

Love the pick here.  It’s not often an offensive lineman is a sexy pick in the draft in regards to fantasy production, but owners of Matt Stafford will take every bit of help they can get to keep him healthy!

22. Cleveland Browns – Brandon Weeden, QB Oklahoma State

Now we’re rockin’!

I chuckled today when the news came out that the Browns were giving Colt McCoy a ringing endorsement. Well, actions speak louder than words, that’s for sure.

Weeden is no doubt talented, but he’s also 28 years old. The Browns will certainly be looking for him to compete with McCoy in camp and likely hope he wins that competition before he has to get his AARP card.

He would have gone a good ten picks earlier had he been younger, but it’s just not the case. The Browns have now added a quarterback and a running back in the first round to shore up their offense. No surprise there and I like the direction personally.

The Browns now need to get some more weapons on the outside to help out McCoy or Weeden. Greg Little has promise, but that receiver depth chart is a mess.

Weeden is going to be a VERY interesting pick in a dynasty league. You could take him and hope he develops quickly and plays this season – that way you could get a good 6-8 years out of him. It’s also going to be a risk with his age and the fact the Browns are still far away from competing.

I would imagine Weeden goes somewhere in the second round in rookie drafts.

21. New England Patriots – Chandler Jones, DE Syracuse

It’s probably the steal of the draft because of two reasons.

1.) The Patriots always get the steal of the draft.
2.) I hate the Patriots.

20. Tennessee Titans – Kendall Wright, WR Baylor

Say what!?!

The Titans seemed stacked at receiver with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Damian Williams, not to mention Jared Cook coming on as a tight end. The big loser here may just be Washington, who posted a career season last year.

Wright was super productive, but was he the product of Robert Griffin III’s dominance or playing against some pretty soft defenses? His speed is also in question as he failed to post any dominant times in the offseason. This is the first real curveball thrown in the draft on the offensive side as the Titans must have really liked Wright.

This is great news for Jake Locker, though.  The Titans are obviously serious about surrounding him with great offensive talent. We had him at 9th overall in our rookie rankings and he certainly won’t be climbing that any time soon.

Owners are going to need to be pretty patient here.

19. Chicago Bears – Shea McClellin, OLB Boise State

He’s a great athlete and should give the Bears a nice infusion of youth in an aging linebacker corps that features Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs.

Buckle your seatbelts, because we’re about in the range for some WRs and possibly Doug Martin.  Side note: Trent Richardson is the highest drafted running back since Reggie Bush in 2006.

18. San Diego Chargers – Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina

He’s a fairly universal player and it’s going to be interesting to see where Ingram fits in with the Chargers. There’s enough talent here to read up on the Chargers plans because he could develop some nice IDP value.

17. Cincinnati – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama

Alabama players are having a round of their own here and Dont’a Hightower hasn’t even gone yet. Interesting the Bengals passed on wide receivers or a running back here, but I would expect they add one here shortly.

16. New York Jets – Quentin Coples, DE NYJ

Typical pick for the Eagles, typical pick for the Jets. Again, it’s tough to project production from these guys, but there’s no doubt that Coples as a ton of talent. Can he be consistent, though?

15. Seattle Seahawks – Bruce Irvin, OLB West Virginia

He’s going to be a speed guy from the outside, but it seems like this was a reach. Interesting after the Seahawks “reached” last year for James Carpenter. A high risk, high reward player for sure. After losing David Hawthorne, they were skinny at the position, but one thing is certain – Pete Carroll doesn’t care what any of the talking heads think.

14. St. Louis Rams – Michael Brockers, DT LSU

Interesting.

The Rams traded down a few times and as a result, they missed out both Floyd and Blackmon by one pick. Brockers fills a need for sure, but their offensive line, wide receivers and running back depth all need to be addressed.

Well, I guess they just have a lot of needs, right!?!

13. Arizona Cardinals – Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame

Here we go!

The Cards must feel like they finally have the answer opposite Larry Fitzgerald that they’ve been looking for since Anquan Boldin left for Baltimore in 2009. Andre Roberts, Early Doucet, Steve Breaston, Stephen Williams and a host of others have tried, but none have solidified themselves as a solid second option – the Cardinals have to hope Floyd does.

Floyd’s last year at Notre Dame was solid as he posted 100 catches for 1,147 yards and nine scores. Many people feel he be an even better player at the NFL level than he was in college. His character issues have been mostly put to rest as well.

From a dynasty perspective, Floyd is very intriguing. Do you take a guy in Floyd who can be no better than a WR2 on his own team over a guy like Blackmon, who can be a WR1 on a pretty bad team? That debate is going to rage in dynasty league drafts all Summer.  He’s certainly going to be considered in the middle of the first round, though.

Regardless, Floyd is in a place where he’ll learn how to play the game from one of the best. Owners of Fitzgerald should be thrilled the team is adding someone who could eventually take some of the attention off of him. Owners of Andre Roberts, Stephen Williams or Early Doucet, not so much.

Kevin Kolb is running out of excuses.

12. Philadelphia Eagles – Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi St

Typical Eagles pick here, but they must have really liked him to give up a 4th and a 6th to Seattle to move up just three spots. The Eagles do love their offensive and defensive lineman in the draft, that’s for sure.

Meanwhile, Michael Floyd is on the board with the Rams and Cardinals on the board next. Hmm.

11. Kansas City Chiefs – Dontari Poe, NT Memphis

A lot of talent, but the numbers don’t match. It’s a risk for the Chiefs here, but he could be pretty good down the road.

10. Buffalo Bills – CB Stephon Gilmore, CB South Carolina

With Kuechly gone to Carolina and the Bills passing on another LB, owners of Kelvin Sheppard smile.

9. Carolina Panthers – Luke Kuechly, LB Boston College

Kuechly is a total stud and would be the only IDP who could sneak into the first round of IDP fantasy drafts. Kuechly, Jon Beason and James Anderson (or Thomas Davis) will form arguably one of the best LB crews in all the NFL.  I would imagine they kick Beason over to the weak side and have Kuechly man the middle.

Nice.

8. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M

He hasn’t had nearly as much experience as you’d like and he’s a huge notch below the big two of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, but the Dolphins are desperate for a quarterback. His former Coach, Mike Sherman, is also on the staff to help him out.

Matt Moore and David Garrard should be good enough to play for a year while Tannehill develops.  From a dynasty perspective, you have to hope that happens because he just isn’t ready to play quite yet. He certainly has the measureables, but taking a guy who used to be a wide receiver and one who has this little experience is a huge risk.

As far as a rookie draft goes, Tannehill will likely be a lower first round or high second round pick in dynasty leagues, with a major “boom or bust” factor. Simply put, he’s your typical rookie project quarterback.

Hopefully he can develop for some time and wait for the Dolphins to add some more offensive talent. Like I said, he’s a risk, but one worth looking into if you have some quarterback depth and need a young project.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mark Barron, S Alabama

Again, most S and CB designated players are tough to project from a fantasy standpoint. The most intriguing part of this pick is the Bucs NOT getting Richardson tonight.  For the moment, LeGarrette Blount owners have to be stoked.  Doug Martin, David Wilson or Lamar Miller would be obvious threats, but not quite as much as Richardson.  With Trent, Blount would have had no future in fantasy or reality with Tampa Bay.

6. Dallas Cowboys – Morris Claiborne, CB LSU

You can’t really predict IDP excellence from a CB.  After all, some of the worst DBs make for the best fantasy performers since they get a lot of tackles after being roasted in coverage.  That being said, this looks like a major get for the Cowboys.

You have to wonder if the Rams want Michael Floyd at this point after missing out on Justin Blackmon.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State

While Richardson, Luck and RGIII are consensus top picks, the book seems to still be out on Blackmon. Some think he’s a top three talent in this draft, while others think he’s a mid-first rounder.

Regardless of what you think about his size or speed, this is a decent spot for him to land. The Jaguars have been completely inept at the receiver position and now have both Blackmon and Laurent Robinson to right the ship. They really haven’t had a consistent threat since Jimmy Smith and have struck out on players like R. Jay Soward, Reggie Williams and Matt Jones. The big question is going to be the development of Blaine Gabbert.

Speaking of high character, Blackmon seems to be a great kid. If you saw the little girl with him at the draft, that’s a special leukemia patient who he’s taken under his wing over the past year and it’s a genuine “big brother” relationship from everything I’ve read.

Unlike his predecessor at Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant), there are no red flags (other than a DUI charge in 2010) in the area of character concerns. In fact, one of his teammates put it well the other day when he said, “If you were going to have a 1:30 workout, Dez would be there at 1:30, but Blackmon would be there at 1:00.” There’s a difference in meeting expectaions and exceeding expectations. It wouldn’t be surprising to me to see Blackmon do exceed the expectations people have of him at the NFL level.

Blackmon doesn’t have the talent of AJ Green, Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald, but he’s still very good. His run after the catch ability is fantastic and he should grow to be the Jaguars number one weapon. Blackmon projects as a possible high end WR2 with a lot of upside.

In dynasty drafts, he’s likely in the top four with Luck, RGIII and Richardson, pending what unfolds here shortly.

4. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT USC

Yeah, I know.  You don’t play in many OT eligible leagues, right.

This pick does have a dynasty impact, though.

With Trent Richardson NOT going to Minnesota AND the Vikings adding Kalil, this is great news for the recovering Adrian Peterson. If the Vikings would have surprised us and taken Richardson, that would have been a mess.

3. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB Alabama

Meet the new bell cow for the Cleveland Browns everyone!

Richardson lands in a great spot as the Browns have very little on the depth chart to challenge him for carries. Montario Hardesty is still around, but his durability is a serious issue. Richardson is being brought to Cleveland for one reason – he’ll be asked to shorten the game.

I really do wish he would have went to Tampa Bay, New York or St. Louis since the Browns are going to be facing the Ravens and Steelers defenses four times each year. While you could argue that’s a short term issue, those two teams have historically had imposing defensive units and having Richardson face them in ¼ of his career games is a concern. Outside of a couple of good years from Jamal Lewis and Peyton Hillis, the Browns haven’t exactly been churning out solid seasons from their running backs, either.

What isn’t a concern is his talent.

While we at DLF don’t truly believe he’s “elite” like Adrian Peterson, Barry Sanders, Bo Jackson or some of the other incredibly talented backs of the past few decades, there’s no doubt he’s very, very good. Richardson can do it all and will be asked to in Cleveland as well.

The Browns are likely still looking for offensive talent at quarterback and receiver, but adding Richardson is a coup.

He should be drafted no later than second in rookie drafts and projects to be at least a top ten running back for the foreseeable future based on his talent level alone. If the Browns improve, the rewards could be even higher.

On another note, I had mentioned earlier that I wished the Browns would have passed on Richardson because they have such a clear need for a back now. Had the Browns gone for someone like Justin Blackmon, they could have taken Doug Martin later on. Richardson was going to be a stud wherever he went, but the running back spots in the late first round get pretty murky.

2. Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor

Again, no surprises on this front as the draft really starts here shortly at #4..

Griffin was an absolute stud this past season at Baylor as he completed a robust 72.4% of his passes and posted 4,293 passing yards, 699 rushing yards and accounted for a total of 47 touchdowns with just six interceptions.

Whoa.

The Redskins gave up a ton to get him and now he has to perform up to some lofty expectations. However, the benchmark set by John Beck, Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman isn’t exactly high, so anything positive he does will likely be overblown early – that helps!

Mike Shanahan has been known as one of the best developers of quarterbacks over the years, though the shine on that seems to wearing thin these days. With Griffin, he gets an elite athlete who can throw on the run or from the pocket. Can they work together and finally solve the Redskins long standing issues at quarterback?

In Washington, Griffin won’t exactly have a stacked deck. I’m on record saying the signings of Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan don’t exactly excite me. While they’re an upgrade over what they had, both have question marks surrounding them. The league’s penalty imposed on the salary cap of Washington hurt their chances of doing more like adding Vincent Jackson, however. In the end, they did the best they could, given the situation.

At this point, the offense of Washington will feature Griffin, Roy Helu, Evan Royster, Garcon, Morgan, Leonard Hankerson and Fred Davis. That’s not exactly an offensive juggernaut, but likely not one that will allow Griffin to get “David Carr-ed,” either.

In terms of dynasty value, Griffin should likely be targeted in the top four in a rookie draft, along with Luck, Trent Richardson and Justin Blackmon, pending what transpires here later in the draft. He projects as a future QB1. He’ll also likely outpace Andrew Luck at the beginning of their careers based on the talent around him, combined with his athletic ability.

On another note, if you want to have good people on your team, he’s an absolute no-brainer.

1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB Stanford

No shocker here as the Colts likely made up their mind to take Luck before the 2011 season was even over. Much will be said about Luck over the next few months, but the telling thing to me is about how much wasn’t said in the previous three or four. In a time where collegiate prospects are scrutinized so heavily, nobody was able to find a fault in Luck’s game.

To me, that silence speaks volumes about him.

My thoughts on Luck as the possible 1.01 pick in rookie drafts are pretty well known by now. I think he should be taken first, regardless of where Trent Richardson ends up (Cleveland, anyone). I love the long term potential here and he certainly looks like a guy you can eventually pencil in as your QB1 for the better part of a decade – that luxury cannot be understated.  That, combined with the short life of running backs and the tendency of coaches to go with running back committees shifts me towards taking Luck first in a rookie draft.

I recently compared the Luck and Richardson debate as picking between the careers of Edgerrin James and Peyton Manning. Both could get you a championship (much like Richardson and Luck should), but Manning would have you competing for more over the long haul. Again, both are winners and it’s a good year to have 1.02 in your rookie draft.

In Indianapolis, Luck will have the services of Reggie Wayne, but the rest of the offense is a far cry from the one that Manning led in the past. They’ll need to add more weapons in this draft (and in 2013 as well).  Luck could very well struggle at first and will likely be behind RGIII in scoring early in their careers.

Patience should be rewarded, though.

Thursday, 4:15 PM

The Vikings have traded with Cleveland for the rights to the #3 pick in order to land Trent Richardson.  We’ll analyze the pick when it happens!

[Read from the bottom up if you’re new to the page]

Thursday, 9:15 AM PDT

Just some random thoughts before we get going tonight.

For me, the key to the draft from a dynasty perspective is Trent Richardson.  If he goes at #4 to Cleveland, that takes away another great landing spot for a running back, either later in the first round or early in the second. If you own pick #5 in your rookie draft, you’re likely hoping for Richardson to go to Tampa Bay (or have someone like the Jets trade up to get him) so the Browns can take someone like Doug Martin later onIf that happens, it’s likely a rookie draft top five of Andrew Luck,  Robert Griffin III, Richardson, Justin Blackmon and Martin in some order. If that doesn’t happen, #5 gets pretty interesting and the debate on talent vs. situation may rage on at that spot in rookie drafts this Summer.

On a side note, owners of Steven Jackson would be thrilled to see Richardson go at #4 or #5 because Jackson would likely be staying put. You’d have to figure the Rams would target Justin Blackmon at #6 as well.

The Dolphins seem to be in position to draft Ryan Tannehill at #8. It’s possible that a team could trade up ahead of them, but it’s not looking likely at the moment.

On the IDP side of things, Luke Kuechly has been rumored to be on the radar of the Bills. That could have an adverse effect on the prospects of Kelvin Sheppard.

The second half of the first round will be pretty exciting. Players like Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Martin, Coby Fleener and Stephen Hill could all hear their names called

Let’s get this thing going already!

Thursday, 6:15 AM PDT

Good morning everyone!

Welcome to the exclusive NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis post from DLF. It seems like we’ve been waiting forever for the Draft to arrive and it’s finally here. This will be an incredibly exciting weekend and we thank you, our premium content members, for spending it with us.  I’ll start off this morning by explaining a little bit about what to expect.

1.) We’ll start off with some random comments and events from the day and follow that up with our exclusive analysis of the picks as they come in, starting this evening. This post will be continuously updated throughout the entire weekend, from the bottom up. So, expect to see the newest information at the top for convenience purposes. This will help you avoid the annoying refresh and scrolling down part of the experience. Harder for us, but seamless for you.  Easy choice for us, there.

2.) We’ll be sharing our thoughts on each of the relevant picks as they come in throughout the Draft in real time (or as long as it takes us to write). Many of you check the Rotoworld fantasy news feed, so think of it that way, but with more of a dynasty spin. While there may be a few lapses in time while we get our thoughts together, it should work out very well. We won’t be posting commentary on the 75th right guard taken, but expect anything important in relation to dynasty leagues being covered. We WILL cover some IDP players (especially early), but the focus here will be more on the offensive side of things.

3.) Feel free to make any comments here on the post, within the premium (or free) forums or over at the live chat we’ll be facilitating. While I won’t have the ability to respond to many of the comments or questions immediately (I’ll have my hands full updating the post here), comments are encouraged.  You guys are all the “elite,” so I would expect some great discussions all over DLF the entire weekend.

We’re absolutely stoked to be able to offer this to you guys as an exclusive part of your premium membership with us.  Thanks a ton for supporting DLF and enjoy the draft.

Oh, and one other thing.  Expect the initial downloadable draft sheet for the rookies (exclusive for premium content members) to be available earlier than you could possibly expect.

No pressure, right!

 


Ken Kelly
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StevieMo
10 years ago

Quite possibly my favorite day of the year.

“Can’t wait!” ~ Bart Scott

Reply to  StevieMo
10 years ago

I echo that Steve.

Cyrus Miller
10 years ago

“=… it’s likely a rookie draft top five of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Richardson, Justin Blackmon and Martin”

Interesting. In my league, I expect it to go Richardson, Griffin, Luck, Blackmon, Martin.

As the 1.01 owner, I am considering trading down to 1.05 and taking Martin. Are the Browns really that great of a landing spot? I feel like they have a good offensive line but nothing else and face the AFC North defenses 6 games a year.

Not saying he won’t succeed, but I don’t like facing Baltimore and Pittsburgh and their track record against RB’s.

I think Martin, Miller and Wilson will all end up in good spots. The real question is how people value the individual players.

Andy Masker
Reply to  Cyrus Miller
10 years ago

I wouldn’t guarantee that Martin will be there for you at 1.05. In fact in many leagues I would bet against it. I have 1.04 in my league, and am looking to take Martin there if he is available (assuming a good landing spot).

Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

“Sweep the leg….I want him out of commission”–Gregg Williams

JoJo
10 years ago

The Browns just moved up to #3 to get T-Rich.

Josh Gans
10 years ago

Anyone else having connection issues? Every 2 min or so I get booted from the site.

Reply to  Josh Gans
10 years ago

Same here.

Frank The Tank
Reply to  Josh Gans
10 years ago

yea i have been having trouble too.

Josh Gans
Reply to  Frank The Tank
10 years ago

Does it say 403 Forbidden..you dont have permission to access…or something similar?

Reply to  Josh Gans
10 years ago

Yes

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  therangerdave
10 years ago

chat seems to be working now, i think

Josh Gans
10 years ago

My daughter dragged me away for a few min..what did the Rams get in exchange for #6?

Reply to  Josh Gans
10 years ago

Got 1st and 2nd pick from the Boys.

Josh Gans
Reply to  Steve Wyremski
10 years ago

so 14 and 45..ok..thanks 🙂

Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

Im SICK about missing out on Kuechly.

Lets go Michael Floyd??

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

Gilmore???

This is what i waited all year for……

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Ken Kelly
10 years ago

Yeah, Davis’ knee shouldn’t be ANYWHERE near the “strong” side

Reply to  Ken Kelly
10 years ago

Panthers also showed some 3-4 last year and they now have solid personal to run those packages too.

JoJo
10 years ago

I thought the Bucs moved back to take Kuechly but I can live with Mark Barron.

10 years ago

Bengals probably go O-line with their next pick, or trade down.

Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

Okay, so im calmed down. Admittedly, I dont know much about Gilmore. What do you guys think of him? Opinions?

Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

I think he was very close to being the best corner in the draft.

10 years ago

I love New England’s draft so far. Just have to hit on some secondary help later.

Reply to  therangerdave
10 years ago

Me too. Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower? That’s awesome.

Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

Love that Bills selection. Really hope Jeffery will be there for us in the third. Doubt it.

Brian Medina
10 years ago

Please no more of those terrible Verizon Mom daughter crying commercials.

Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

Wow. Where do you put Broyles now? Slot receiver in that ridiculous passing offense? That may move him up to the early/mid second round.

Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

How is Lamar Miller not drafted yet?? Must be something we don’t know.

Reply to  Ken Kelly
10 years ago

Jonathan Dwyer-eqse!!

Wow. All I know is that if Miller doesn’t go in the 4th round today, I’m staying away from him.

Reply to  Ken Kelly
10 years ago

Read on twitter that his shoulder injury is supposedly much worse that teams originally thought. He was advised to stay at Miami by his coaches, but elected to declare anyways…

Ray White
10 years ago

what about miller in pit? atl would be my top spot but steelers could use mendys replacement

Stoney Curtis
10 years ago

It seems STEELER Issac Redman will be a fine late #1 pick in dynasty rookie/free agent drafts. Also, I believe you could improve your team more in the second round, by selecting Eric Decker or the anyone of the Pats 2nd year RB’s over an available rookie WR or a D.Wilson or I.Pead RB in the 2nd rd……just my dynasty draft .02

10 years ago

Huge steal by the Chiefs in round 4 with Devon Wylie…only hope they realize what they have and get him on the field

Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

What an absolutely awful crop this year.

Five players deep. Who do you take at 1.6?, 1.7?

Josh Gans
10 years ago

Indy should take Chris Polk!

Stoney Curtis
10 years ago

Based on the landing spots (T.B. vs Cleve) does anyone else see the distinct possibility of Martin having a better Dynasty career than Richardson?

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Stoney Curtis
10 years ago

Anything is possible. Richardson will get a ton more touches than Martin, and touches=fantasy points. After watching this draft, I’m inclined to suggest that i am not as conversant with college football as i thought as i was 3 days ago. I was planning on trading up for Lamar Miller….what a fool i was.

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