Rookie Q&A w/NFL Draft Countdown’s Shane Hallam
Every year before the big day (NFL Draft), your DLF staff works tirelessly to watch tape, take notes, review and rank the rookies to give you every possible edge prior to your own rookie draft. While we take great pride in our work and accuracy, we are also fully aware that we aren’t the only game in town. As such, we seek out the best and brightest in the industry to give you additional information to ensure you are getting input from multiple sources. For the second year, we were able to meet up with Draft Countdown’s own Shane Hallam (@shanephallam) to get his views on this year’s rookie class including his thoughts about a few players you may not recognize.
DLF: What are your thoughts about the 2012 rookie class in general?
Hallam: I think it is a solid and deep class. Not elite at the top after Andrew Luck and RGIII, but I see a lot of depth at key positions like WR in the mid-rounds. From a fantasy football perspective, it is a very deep class and worth gathering picks for this draft compared to next year.
DLF: Everyone knows, or has heard, that Andrew Luck may just be the best prospect since 1983 and John Elway. Do you agree with this assessment and what do you think his bust potential is? How far is RGIII behind Luck?
Hallam: I do, at least since I have been scouting. Luck is just so polished mentally and physically. He had more on his shoulders pre-snap than Peyton Manning did in college. With Luck’s athletic ability, pocket presence, and zip within short-to-mid range, he can be an elite player. RGIII can too, but Luck is much more of a sure thing and is a much better bet for a great career. I feel both can be Top 5 QBs in the NFL.
DLF: In a rookie dynasty draft, assuming you need a quarterback, which quarterback would you choose between Luck and RGIII?
Hallam: I would choose Luck, I just trust the evaluation more. There may be a choice for me in one league, and I feel much more comfortable taking Luck, even in Indy. I recognize RGIII’s rushing ability gives him some upside, but he won’t do it as consistently as Cam Newton did. I will go with the longevity Luck will bring.
DLF: I’m on record as believing that Trent Richardson isn’t as elite as most “experts” think, although he’s certainly a beast and likely to be very good. Do you view Richardson as an elite player at the position?
Hallam: I do view him as elite. He can help in each aspect of your offense, rushing, blocking, and receiving. The size and strength when combined with the way he moves his feet, he can be a top NFL RB. Does that mean longevity for him? Probably not, he will take a beating, but he is an elite talent on tape.
DLF: In what order do you rank the next three rookie runners behind T-Rich: Lamar Miller, David Wilson and Doug Martin.
Hallam: I rank them Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, and David Wilson. I believe Miller has the most upside as a big, physical straightline player. His toughness playing through injury should translate and if he holds up, he can be a very, very good RB. Martin is the safest bet to be productive, but doesn’t quite hold the straightline and lateral ability. I’m not a David Wilson fan. He may be the second RB off the board, but he takes too many chances and seems more like a backup than a starter to me.
DLF: Do you think Martin has stood out at least partially due to the fact that Boise State’s competition has been relatively soft?
Hallam: It is a part of the reason, but the Senior Bowl has proven how capable he truly is. The fact that he is physically more developed than most of this class is an example of how he will hold up. Despite the level of competition, Martin excelled in an offense where Kellen Moore was the focal point and was extremely difficult to bring down. I think he will carve out a role in the NFL and be a fairly productive runner.
DLF: This looks to be a down year for tight ends. Are there any within the position that you are excited about?
Hallam: Not really. I think Coby Fleener can be a TD machine, but not very consistent. Orson Charles has the most upside to me, but there is huge downside and he could end up going the way of Leonard Pope a few years ago. Dwayne Allen is one of the safest bets, I like his range, but upside is limited. I am not excited about the class outside of Ladarius Green of Louisiana-Lafayette, who has the best receiving upside for fantasy purposes.
DLF: Luck and RGIII are getting all the accolades but Ryan Tannehill is likely to be a top 12 selection, perhaps even top 8. How good is Tannehill and do you believe he is going to be over-drafted?
Hallam: I believe Ryan Tannehill will go where he should. He was the Top Senior QB going into the year and didn’t disappoint. He has only started 19 games, but shows the pocket presence and pass rush awareness of a player with 30-40 starts. Add on above average arm strength and the development to read defenses under pressure, I do feel he can be a franchise QB if developed properly and a top 15 QB in the NFL.
DLF: Turning our attention to the receivers, what do you think about this year’s class?
Hallam: It isn’t great at the top, but this is the deepest WR class in about a decade. 40+ receivers could get drafted and that is unheard of. The 2nd-4th round has receivers who could develop into starters and be fantasy relevant. This is the year to spend your later round rookie picks on wideouts.
DLF: Blackmon or Floyd?
Hallam: The bet is on Blackmon to have a better career, but if you’d tell me one will be a HOF, I will bet my life it is Floyd. His size, speed, ball tracking and high pointing are nearly unmatched in this draft. If he gets a bit looser in the hips and stays healthy, I feel Floyd can be a true Top 10 NFL WR. No one else in this class outside of Stephen Hill may have that upside.
DFL: Which receiver should be third off the board behind Blackmon and Floyd?
Hallam: Kendall Wright should, but Stephen Hill may be. Wright is pretty polished, can make catches on the outside and if he learns how to beat man coverage consistently, he can be a very good player in a west coast system. I think Hill, ultimately, is the 3rd WR off the board because a 6’4″ 4.3 player is SO tough to find.
DLF: Are you buying Stephen Hill’s upside after his monster combine?
Hallam: I buy that he has upside and that he can meet it. Look at Demaryius Thomas who has started to hit his development stride. If Hill hits that stride, he could hold even more upside, but it will take time. He is someone to not draft highly in a dynasty league, but keep a watchful eye on instead. A buy-low candidate in a year or two.
DLF: Looking at the main positions of QB/RB/WR, can you give us a couple of names that you believe are going to significantly outplay their drafted situation?
Hallam:
QB: Ryan Lindley of San Diego State, he is my QB sleeper with starting upside. Not draftable in a dynasty league, but someone to watch
RB: Edwin Baker of Michigan State is an intriguing PPR option. He has the moves of a 3rd down back with some major upside and could be drafted in the Top 100.
WR: I have a few. Juron Criner of Arizona may be a 4th rounder, but he plays like a 2nd rounder. Not fast, but he can catch a lot of balls and score TDs. TJ Graham from NC State is a candidate to drastically outperform his draft position. He is falling somehow, but incredibly fast, quick and can leap to make the catch. Finally, Michigan WR Junior Hemingway has a lot of upside and really could outperform his draft position.
DLF: Who are some of the higher profile players that you would prefer to stay away from or feel have a higher probability of being a bust?
Hallam: LSU WR Rueben Randle is getting a lot of hype, but I just don’t see a dynamic player who can take contact well. He runs a limited route tree and just mentally doesn’t seem to be all there. I worry if he can be a #1 or #2 WR. QB-wise, Brandon Weeden and Brock Osweiler both scare me as I could see neither one coming to fruition and being lost in obscurity. As for RB, Bernard Pierce has gotten a lot of hype, but the more I watch, the more I see a pure backup.
DLF: Any off-the-radar players that we should be watching?
Hallam:
RB: Jonathan Grimes from William & Mary. Pretty shifty and strong legged, I think he has potential to make a team and maybe do a bit more.
WR: Eric Page from Toledo is a small player who has elite quickness. I think he can drastically outperform his draft position and get on the radar quickly.
WR: Julian Talley from UMass has a nice frame and high points the ball well. Toss in underrated speed, he could be drafted despite being off the radar.
DLF: Thanks Shane!
Make sure you check out Draft Countdown and catch Shane Hallam (@shanephallam) on Twitter!
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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