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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  Should we be expecting a big third year break out from Dez?  Josh via Twitter

I don’t buy in to this third year WR thing.  Sort of reminds me of another popular myth that young quarterbacks favor tight ends.  Neither of these is grounded in any statistics that I can find.  However, I digress, so let’s turn our attention to Dez Bryant.

First off, I’m not sure why owners are so down on Dez to begin with.  He finished as the WR#19 in PPR – one spot behind the vaunted AJ Green.  He only missed one game all year and he only came in with single digit fantasy points in only three games –  this sounds like a darn nice WR2 to me.

Dallas is a mixed blessing for Bryant.  Tony Romo is an underrated passer and the running backs are not a tremendous threat in the passing game.  I expect DeMarco Murray will be the lead back and he’s only good for a couple of receptions per game.  The problem for Bryant is that he’s the third option in the passing game after Jason Witten and Miles Austin.  Also when Austin went down last year, Bryant’s numbers didn’t tick up much at all.  There’s nothing to make me think that Bryant won’t repeat his numbers and maybe take a slight step forward.  Until the competition lessens, there just won’t be sufficient targets for him to make a quantum leap.

Here’s the thing, I think Bryant owners have unrealistic expectations about his value.  I don’t think they are satisfied with “a darn nice WR2.”  In most cases, Bryant went as the 1.01 or 1.02 in rookie drafts.  People expect that level of rookie pick will always produce an elite level stud, but that’s not true.  In some cases all you get is a surefire every week starter and that’s not bad.  Maybe the Bryant owners and Mark Ingram owners should form a therapy group.  If they do, make sure they save room for people who draft Justin Blackmon with the 1.02 this year – they’ll want to join the group in no time.

2.)  In my 10-team PPR league I have needs at WR and RB.  I’ve got the 1.10 and the 2.01 rookie picks.  Who might be there for me?Chris in Brooklyn

While my draft board has come into focus, I need to see the results of the NFL Draft before finalizing.  I like that you mention you have equal needs at wide receiver and running back because you will have no problem following the smart approach to the draft and taking the “best player available” approach.

I hold the 1.12 in my main league, so I am focused on the area of the draft you are asking about as well.  Right now, my top guys in that range are as follows:

David Wilson

It will probably take him going to a less than optimal NFL situation and some luck for him to make it to 1.10, but it could happen.  He’s my RB4 of this class and he isn’t as complete a player as those ahead of him.  He’ll be a long term dynasty prospect and owners with better rookie picks might not want to wait on production.

Chris Polk

My expectation is that Polk’s ADP will be a direct correlation to his NFL situation.  He has a strong potential to be the Daniel Thomas of 2012.  If he goes somewhere attractive, he’ll be gone at this point.  If not, he’s likely to slide.  He’s a complete player, but lacks elite athleticism.  He’s a risky selection, but at this point in the draft the premier running back prospects are generally off the board.

Alshon Jeffery

Jeffery has done all he can this year to hurt his draft stock and that may be to the benefit of people picking at the back end of the first.  He has a good size/speed combo, amazing body control and questionable work ethic.  Sounds like a risk/reward pick to me.

Coby Fleener

I know you need a RB/WR, but maybe you can flex a tight end.  This isn’t the strongest group of tight ends in history, but I think Fleener is the most likely to become elite for fantasy.  He is a poor blocker, but has great down field speed.  The two TE set with a pass catcher split wide is all the rage.  He’s got the skills to fit that system.

Good luck and make sure you visit the DLF Forums after the draft as we will surely have tons of debate going on around this topic.  Less than three weeks to go ‘til the draft!!

3:  Three quick ones: Over/Under on carries for Daniel Thomas?  Lance Moore’s value?  Will Crabtree live up to his rookie hype? Avery in Cali

Daniel Thomas

Over/Under on carries: 200.  He averaged 12.7 per game last year and Reggie Bush somehow stayed healthy.   Thomas has his own health concerns, but he will benefit from the near certain Bush injury.

Lance Moore’s Value

Minimal.  Like all the Saints receivers except Marques Colston, you’ll never know when to start him.  He’s a bye-week filler or injury emergency guy.  Nothing better than a WR5 for dynasty.

Michael Crabtree

No.  He’ll never live up to the hype of his ADP.  To do so now would require him to approach (or eclipse) the guys who were taken later in rookie drafts – Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin and Kenny Britt.  Good luck.  Crabtree owners need to get satisfied that the best outcome is that he becomes a weekly option at WR2 for fantasy.

4:  What will LeGarrette Blount’s value be if Trent Richardson is drafted by Tampa Bay as many pundits predict? From the DLF Forum

It will be rather low, unfortunately.  Blount will be the Toby Gerhart of the South and his owners will have very few options.  Probably the best one would be to try to sell him for nearly nothing to the Richardson owner as handcuff insurance.  Short of that, he’s waiver wire material.  No team is drafting Richardson in the top ten and not using him immediately as their lead back.  And Blount is one dimensional on top of that.  The best you could hope for is eight to ten carries a game while Richardson gets a short rest.  Worthless.

I think it is rather unlikely that Tampa Bay selects Richardson with the 1.05 pick. First, I don’t think he’s there for them at 1.05 anyway as Cleveland will scoop him up at 1.04. Second, Tampa Bay also has the 2.04 pick.  They are better served using that on a running back anyway.  Guys like Lamar Miller, Doug Martin and David Wilson are all likely to be there for them at that point in the draft.  Wilson, in particular, would be good for Blount owners.

Most importantly, Tampa Bay desperately needs Morris ClaiborneRonde Barber’s best option is to get on DWTS before he’s too old to do so.  Aqib Talib is one DUI or bar fight away from a long suspension.  While Claiborne isn’t Patrick Peterson, he is clearly the best cornerback in this draft.  I suppose they could gamble on Janoris Jenkins being there at 2.04, but isn’t it time for Tampa to stop picking character issue guys?

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as tstafford.

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StevieMo
10 years ago

An NFL scout we know told me that Crabtree would be a 4th round pick were that same draft held today. He’s just a guy; for the most part a very short-area receiver that will average about 10-12 yards a catch and maybe 4 TD’s a year.

Phorts
10 years ago

Great bag man! One question is that you mention once the competition goes down for Dez he might increase his production. L Rob not signing was a good thing IMO. I know he didn’t increase his production w Miles out but I think if it’s just the two of them then he can succeed. I’m a little higher on him then most but not. Much higher than you are. I don’t get all the Dezrespect (sorry) either, I just wish the Dez owner in my league was a hater! He offered him and the 1.7 for 1.1. I declined.

Thanks man!

10 years ago

Intersting article, great information. I’m curious though about the comment off topic about Blackmon. I keep hearing smatterings here and there about him not living up to his hype. Is there a breakdown on him somewhere that I have missed? why do so many people have him rated so high, and some respectable sources, are being very cautous about him?

Cyrus
Reply to  B.S. Inc
10 years ago

He isn’t AJ Green.

We have seen Dez and Crabtree “overdrafted” as sure things, then turn out to be solid WR2 (Dez) at best.

I see Blackmon being a solid WR2 like Dez, and if he ends up in STL he might even flirt with top 15, but I don’t think he is an AJ Green, Julio Jones type of talent. People are drafting him at 1.02-1.03 and will expect him to be a WR1, which he won’t be, IMO.

I traded the pick and the hype to get Stewart and some other players. I’ll then trade up to get Floyd (who I think is equal to Blackmon) or one of the many talented WR’s who will fall due to the sheer number of them.

I think Blackmon has a high floor, but his ceiling isn’t amazing. There are several prospects with similar ceilings available, but they also have lower floors. Good year to gamble.

tstafford
Reply to  Cyrus
10 years ago

Cyrus nailed it. This is the exact issue. If people take Blackmon expecting a solid WR2, they will be happy. But they won’t be satisfied with that. Just watch. It’s Dez/Ingram all over again.

meens
Reply to  tstafford
10 years ago

hes not fitz, cj, andre, aj, or maybe even julio. but i think he will fall into the value range of nicks, britt, harvin and wallace. all this guy does is make plays. he isnt the biggest or fastest but he does what it takes. other than the normal learning of the difference between making plays in the nfl compared to college, id expect this guy to settle in as exactly the type of WR you want to build around in a dynasty league. Its combine season, come week 1 the plays on the gameday players will show themselves. also on this point, dont draft stephen hill in the first 12 picks, that will be the move owners will regret. whatever your opinion of blackmon and hill were 3 months ago should strongly reflect your opinion of them now. Ignore the noise in between.

Sensei_John_Kreese
Reply to  meens
10 years ago

Guy drafting 1.1 in my league is taking Blackmon first. Gundy said he liked him better than Dez, and i think he will be very successful. He’s more Anquan Boldin than Calvin Johnson, though.

Chris
10 years ago

Bucs are in a good spot. They signed Eric Wright so CB is still a need but this pickup makes it easy for them to take best player.

I think if they get to choose, they take Claiborne over Richardson. Tough to pass up on either but you only get to pick one.

Hawks Nest
10 years ago

I’ve heard rumors that Dez’s immaturity and inability mentally to grasp a NFL offense is hurting his development. Is it possible he’ll be nothing more than a goalline option and deep threat do to his inability to run crisp routes and read defensive coverages? I am of the opinion “yes”.

Still think Richardson is a bad pick for Browns. Generally a rebuilding team should get a runningback as the last piece to their puzzle considering a rb short career in the NFL. Where the Bucs are defensively & offensively Richardson could be the hammer that puts them over the top. With the Browns he would be LT in San Diego with best years will be behind him before Browns turn it around ( if they ever turn it around ).

Robertbobson
10 years ago

I think you make a good point about tampa not drafting TRich. I think the days of teams taking RB’s that high are almost over. However, TB wouldn’t need TRich to obliterate Blount’s value. If MIller/Martin/Wilson get drafted in the second round, I would think blount’s value would be similarly hurt.

Krcil
Reply to  Robertbobson
10 years ago

But you would still assume Blount would get goal line carries. I was hoping they would let him walk this year, so he could go beast mode for some decently coached team…

Jesse
Reply to  Krcil
10 years ago

Blount had a poor short yardage conversion metric last year. As big as he is, he just doesn’t seem to be a good short yardage guy. He isn’t a quick accelerator and doesn’t always get low at the point of contact.

Detroitcity
10 years ago

i agree with Sensei, I think Blackmon is more of the Boldin type and you should expect similiar production… maybe 1100 – 1300 yds and 5 – 8 tds per year

Detroitcity
10 years ago

and as far as Dez Bryant, I agree that his production is not likely to increase. Honestly until his route tree gets more versatile (he pretty much on runs straight fly routes), I don’t see him being anything more than a top 15 – 20 WR with Witten and Austin both around

Dan
10 years ago

Need Help, Would you trade Charles for Forte? If not would you trade De Williams or crabtree in a deal to get hillis to handcuff Charles?

Meens
Reply to  Dan
10 years ago

i think charles and forte are near equal. i personally like charles slightly more.wouldnt trade either dwill or craptree for hillis. he should come cheaper than that

Boomer
Reply to  Dan
10 years ago

I’d trade Michelle Lobsterbush. SF doesn’t want to improve QB and CAR should trade Stewart. Also, when the Stewart deal does happen, Williams has really few carries for an older and proven RB.

Also, with Forte. I’d avoid him like the plague unless the Bears deal him on draft day to a good team. He’s just not worth what the other owner is going to want.

Jon
10 years ago

I am in a PPR league and traditionally have trouble with RB. Got lucky and received Foster in a trade a few years back. currently have Shonn Greene and Mcgahee as my #2 or flex. I also have Rashad Jennings who received a truckload of hype last year before the IR, what are the thoughts on him this season? and I am also curious what the take is on the CJ Spiller/ Fred Jackson battle. Spiller seemed to find his role towards the end of the year. How do you see that playing out?

Boomer
Reply to  Jon
10 years ago

Rashad Jennings isn’t talented enough to take consistent carries away. He’s one step above useless. They might draft a 2nd day RB to soften the inevitable crash of MJD. Personally I’d find a disgruntled McFadden, CJ2K, Ingram, Mendenhall, Charles, or Stewart owner about a three for one on Foster.

Dan
10 years ago

Would you trade the 1.01 , 1.03 and charles for foster, flynn?

Chad
Reply to  Dan
10 years ago

YUCK! Carles should be back to form as a top 5 RB…so trade a top 5 for a top 5 and plus giving him a 1.1 and 1.3….

Dan
Reply to  Chad
10 years ago

Is charles a top 5 next year? they got hillis and is coming off injury? Foster is the top RB by far. I am high on charles and feel like i may be giving up too much but not sure. anyone else have advice?

Meens
Reply to  Dan
10 years ago

also think that would be giving up too much. foster is definitely better than charles but not enough to add in 2 of trent/griffin/luck. i would definitely reject. I wouldnt even do charles and 1.03 for foster

Cyrus
Reply to  Dan
10 years ago

I would definitely not do that. Take Richardson and luck, griffin if luck is gone.

You now have a better QB and two top fifteen RB. I love Foster, but I think you can do a lot better.

Injury is always a concern for me, and you are giving up three big pieces.

Alex in Tulsa
10 years ago

As an Oklahoma State season ticket holder for many years, I know quite a bit about Dez & Blackmon – having met both.

Blackmon will be a great NFL WR. He will be mre productive than his measurables will indicate, and his charater & work ethic is second to none. As others have correctly started, his floor will be very high. But, I suspect his ceiling will suprise a few.

Mark my words… he is Larry Fitzgerald – Part II.

Sensei_John_Kreese
Reply to  Alex in Tulsa
10 years ago

I agree, he is just like Larry Fitzgerald. Other than the fact that he isn’t as tall…or fast, and that he sometimes takes plays off and drops balls. He also has never played a down in the NFL, and Fitz has 4 1400 yard seasons under his belt. But, other than that…..agree 100%

Alex in Tulsa
Reply to  Sensei_John_Kreese
10 years ago

As I said, he measurables (height, speed, etc) are not on the same level. I guess you ignored that part of my post.

His productivity will mirror Fitz’s… after the first season, I will accept your apology but you will still be a dick.

Alan Bauerle
10 years ago

Hey guys what’s up.. Love this site!! Just pulled a trade off n wann know what u thought. I gave up Vernon Davis n 2 throw ins for johnathan Stewart Brandon Pettigrew n Heyward bey. My Starters thanks to dlf looks like:

Schaub, Tebow
Stewart, Ridley
Wallace, Baldwin, Heyward Bey
Pettigrew, Cook
Nugent
Jets d
I also have the 1.3 n both teams in front of me only have 1 startin qb. Looks like i might get T-Rich.
Thanks for all the advice n tips from everyone

Cyrus
Reply to  Alan Bauerle
10 years ago

Awesome value. As a Stewart, DHB and Davis owner, I would trade Davis for DHB for Stewart. And you got Pettigrew too.

That said, if Davis continues like he did in the playoffs, maybe the trade is fair.

Mike
10 years ago

I think Dez will see increased production this year. And my theory has nothing to do with a player being in his third year. Dez has the talent, I don’t think anyone questions that. But in his rookie season, he was coming off that suspension in college only to come back and get hurt in training camp (the day before my friends and I showed up too, the jackwagon) and miss pretty much all of the preseason. So there was a gap of about a year where he had almost no game-time football.

Last year there was the lockout and thus again no offseason for Dez to work with the coaching staff.

So I think this year, after having a full offseason to work with the strength and conditioning staff and WR coach Jimmy Robinson (who I think is one of the best), Dez should be poised to finally “put it all together” and break into WR1 territory.

Mercenaries
10 years ago

A guy in my PPR Dynasty League offered me his 1.8, 2.4, and 3.4 for Julio Jones. I currently only have the 1.6 and 3.6 in our rookie draft, so this would give me 5 picks, including 2 1st rounders. My question is, will there be any rookie WR’s other than Blackmon that I could pick up with my 1st rd pick that might come close to replacing Julio’s production?

MoraccoMole
Reply to  Mercenaries
10 years ago

No. I would keep JJ.

MoraccoMole
10 years ago

If offered to you, would you take a mid rookie pick (#7 or #8) for Matt Ryan (Brees is your other QB)?

Dan
Reply to  MoraccoMole
10 years ago

I would keep ryan for that price, You dont need him but is rated number 8 on the website at QB. You should be able to get more than the 7 or 8th pick.

MoraccoMole
Reply to  Dan
10 years ago

Based on previous drafts, Luck and RGIII may be there at those picks. These guys are rated higher than Ryan. That’s why I am contemplating this. Will Ryan ever be elite?

Dan
Reply to  MoraccoMole
10 years ago

If you can get luck/rg3 in your draft then i would go for it because ryan will not be an elite Qb that Luck/rg3 can be. is this an all rookie draft that you have them going 7th or 8th? In my league they will be going 3-5 for sure

MoraccoMole
Reply to  Dan
10 years ago

Rookie and FA draft. In the years they came out, Ryan went 2.06, Stafford 2.01, Bradford 2.04, and Newton 2.05. This league values RBs and WRs.

Dan
10 years ago

Would you deal Charles and the 1.03 for AJ Green, Ingram and 1.07? I feel it is a killer offer buy at three i would have got luck/rg3 to backup Payton Manning who i hope just plays at top 7 qb at the worse for two years.

MoraccoMole
Reply to  Dan
10 years ago

Tough call. I almost lean toward the AJ side of deal. But only slightly.

Dan
Reply to  MoraccoMole
10 years ago

I get alot of mixed reactions. I wouldnt have made the deal without trusting this website opinions. With Green being a top 3 Dynasty WR for the future. I was not getting alot of Value for Charles so i hope to move Green or Watch him blossom

Krcil
Reply to  Dan
10 years ago

I usually side with the player getting the the best player and this is the perfect example of that.

Only if you have no confidence in Peyton Manning would be the only reason not to do this trade in my opinion

10 years ago

Our rookie/fa draft is coming up in beginning of May and i was wondering how early Mendenhall should go. Yeah, you heard me, someone dropped Mendy when keepers were do. I know he will be on PUP list to start the season, but is this a no brainer at 1.7 in a 10 team draft? I currently have CJ and RyMatt as my starting RBs along with Ingram and Shonne on the pine. We can start up to 3 RBs as there is 1 rb/wr flex. As our draft is after the nfl draft, i’ll know if Pitt has taken a RB or not, but say they don’t. Do i snag Mendy at 1.7 and Redman later in draft? Or take bpa? Demaryius is available too as a FA. hmmmmmmmmmm

Reply to  Wilson!
10 years ago

figured i should put my roster for above post ^^^^^

Cam, Freeman
Matthews, CJ1K, Shonne, Ingram
Wallace, BMarsh, Jordy, TBMW
AHern, Olsen
Roman Harper, James Harrison

Thanks!

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