The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  Should we be expecting a big third year break out from Dez?  – Josh via Twitter

I don’t buy in to this third year WR thing.  Sort of reminds me of another popular myth that young quarterbacks favor tight ends.  Neither of these is grounded in any statistics that I can find.  However, I digress, so let’s turn our attention to Dez Bryant.

First off, I’m not sure why owners are so down on Dez to begin with.  He finished as the WR#19 in PPR – one spot behind the vaunted AJ Green.  He only missed one game all year and he only came in with single digit fantasy points in only three games –  this sounds like a darn nice WR2 to me.

Dallas is a mixed blessing for Bryant.  Tony Romo is an underrated passer and the running backs are not a tremendous threat in the passing game.  I expect DeMarco Murray will be the lead back and he’s only good for a couple of receptions per game.  The problem for Bryant is that he’s the third option in the passing game after Jason Witten and Miles Austin.  Also when Austin went down last year, Bryant’s numbers didn’t tick up much at all.  There’s nothing to make me think that Bryant won’t repeat his numbers and maybe take a slight step forward.  Until the competition lessens, there just won’t be sufficient targets for him to make a quantum leap.

Here’s the thing, I think Bryant owners have unrealistic expectations about his value.  I don’t think they are satisfied with “a darn nice WR2.”  In most cases, Bryant went as the 1.01 or 1.02 in rookie drafts.  People expect that level of rookie pick will always produce an elite level stud, but that’s not true.  In some cases all you get is a surefire every week starter and that’s not bad.  Maybe the Bryant owners and Mark Ingram owners should form a therapy group.  If they do, make sure they save room for people who draft Justin Blackmon with the 1.02 this year – they’ll want to join the group in no time.

2.)  In my 10-team PPR league I have needs at WR and RB.  I’ve got the 1.10 and the 2.01 rookie picks.  Who might be there for me? – Chris in Brooklyn

While my draft board has come into focus, I need to see the results of the NFL Draft before finalizing.  I like that you mention you have equal needs at wide receiver and running back because you will have no problem following the smart approach to the draft and taking the “best player available” approach.

I hold the 1.12 in my main league, so I am focused on the area of the draft you are asking about as well.  Right now, my top guys in that range are as follows:

David Wilson

It will probably take him going to a less than optimal NFL situation and some luck for him to make it to 1.10, but it could happen.  He’s my RB4 of this class and he isn’t as complete a player as those ahead of him.  He’ll be a long term dynasty prospect and owners with better rookie picks might not want to wait on production.

Chris Polk

My expectation is that Polk’s ADP will be a direct correlation to his NFL situation.  He has a strong potential to be the Daniel Thomas of 2012.  If he goes somewhere attractive, he’ll be gone at this point.  If not, he’s likely to slide.  He’s a complete player, but lacks elite athleticism.  He’s a risky selection, but at this point in the draft the premier running back prospects are generally off the board.

Alshon Jeffery

Jeffery has done all he can this year to hurt his draft stock and that may be to the benefit of people picking at the back end of the first.  He has a good size/speed combo, amazing body control and questionable work ethic.  Sounds like a risk/reward pick to me.

Coby Fleener

I know you need a RB/WR, but maybe you can flex a tight end.  This isn’t the strongest group of tight ends in history, but I think Fleener is the most likely to become elite for fantasy.  He is a poor blocker, but has great down field speed.  The two TE set with a pass catcher split wide is all the rage.  He’s got the skills to fit that system.

Good luck and make sure you visit the DLF Forums after the draft as we will surely have tons of debate going on around this topic.  Less than three weeks to go ‘til the draft!!

3:  Three quick ones: Over/Under on carries for Daniel Thomas?  Lance Moore’s value?  Will Crabtree live up to his rookie hype? – Avery in Cali

Daniel Thomas

Over/Under on carries: 200.  He averaged 12.7 per game last year and Reggie Bush somehow stayed healthy.   Thomas has his own health concerns, but he will benefit from the near certain Bush injury.

Lance Moore’s Value

Minimal.  Like all the Saints receivers except Marques Colston, you’ll never know when to start him.  He’s a bye-week filler or injury emergency guy.  Nothing better than a WR5 for dynasty.

Michael Crabtree

No.  He’ll never live up to the hype of his ADP.  To do so now would require him to approach (or eclipse) the guys who were taken later in rookie drafts – Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin and Kenny Britt.  Good luck.  Crabtree owners need to get satisfied that the best outcome is that he becomes a weekly option at WR2 for fantasy.

4:  What will LeGarrette Blount’s value be if Trent Richardson is drafted by Tampa Bay as many pundits predict? – From the DLF Forum

It will be rather low, unfortunately.  Blount will be the Toby Gerhart of the South and his owners will have very few options.  Probably the best one would be to try to sell him for nearly nothing to the Richardson owner as handcuff insurance.  Short of that, he’s waiver wire material.  No team is drafting Richardson in the top ten and not using him immediately as their lead back.  And Blount is one dimensional on top of that.  The best you could hope for is eight to ten carries a game while Richardson gets a short rest.  Worthless.

I think it is rather unlikely that Tampa Bay selects Richardson with the 1.05 pick. First, I don’t think he’s there for them at 1.05 anyway as Cleveland will scoop him up at 1.04. Second, Tampa Bay also has the 2.04 pick.  They are better served using that on a running back anyway.  Guys like Lamar Miller, Doug Martin and David Wilson are all likely to be there for them at that point in the draft.  Wilson, in particular, would be good for Blount owners.

Most importantly, Tampa Bay desperately needs Morris Claiborne.  Ronde Barber’s best option is to get on DWTS before he’s too old to do so.  Aqib Talib is one DUI or bar fight away from a long suspension.  While Claiborne isn’t Patrick Peterson, he is clearly the best cornerback in this draft.  I suppose they could gamble on Janoris Jenkins being there at 2.04, but isn’t it time for Tampa to stop picking character issue guys?

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as tstafford.