The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
Let’s get to it!
1: What’s a good offer for Bowe in an 11-man keeper? I currently have Fitz, Dez, Crabtree, Decker, Rice and Cobb. – Aggs82 via Twitter
I think you’re on to something in trying to buy Dwayne Bowe. There just seems to be a group of players that inexplicably are disliked by dynasty owners – Matt Forte (and Bowe) both come to mind. These players consistently outperform their trade values. Not surprisingly I have both of these guys on my team.
Bowe’s ADP currently is at the early part of the fourth round in startups, along with the likes of Vincent Jackson and Marques Colston. I have Bowe ahead of those guys on my board and believe he is a lock for 1,100 yards and about seven touchdowns. In addition, he is the undisputed WR1 on his team.
As to your question, I think I’d offer Eric Decker and a second round rookie/FA pick. The pick is worth a good bit more in this format because it’s a keep-11 rather than a full dynasty. As for Decker, I’d like to capitalize on the Peyton Manning hype. My bet is the ceiling for Decker is the level of production we have already grown accustomed to with Bowe. I’d be willing to cough up the second in order to eliminate the risk.
2: Give Reggie Bush for Mark Ingram? – jwhite_85 via Twitter
Absolutely. I’m a bit shocked you’re being offered this deal.  Mark Ingram’s early ADP is fully two rounds ahead of Reggie Bush.
I’m guessing the team making this offer is a serious contender and wants to get the immediate production that Bush promises –  that’s a bad gamble. Bush is coming off a career year and has nowhere to go but down. The stats he put up last year were miles better than anything he’s done before. And somehow Bush avoided the injury bug. I’m betting against a repeat. For much more in-depth analysis on Bush take a look at Ken Kelly’s recent Dynasty Dilemma Article.
As for Ingram, I think he’s a buy low. My take is the majority of his owners drafted him with the 1.01 in their rookie draft last year and are frustrated by how he’s being used in New Orleans. Plus, AJ Green and Julio Jones are there adding insult to injury. People have an expectation (wrongly) that the 1.01 should always net an immediate stud.
Ingram is an oft-maligned player in the DLF Forums. By and large I think the problem was that expectations were wrong. It should have come as no surprise that Sean Payton would run a full-on RBBC. That’s been his history and has been very successful for the Saints. When healthy, Ingram was the lead back in the RBBC and that’s what his owners should expect going forward.
Ingram will emerge as a consistent, reliable RB2/flex in both PPR and non-PPR. I suppose this isn’t what people might have hoped for with the 1.01, but there is meaningful dynasty value in having your RB2/flex locked up for years and years. The likelihood of us looking back and labeling Ingram a draft day bust is extremely low.
3: The top scorer at WR in fantasy rarely repeats that feat in consecutive seasons. Will Megatron break that trend? – Brandon in Chicago
While it’s rare it can happen, Andre Johnson pulled off the feat in 2008 and 2009, but was replaced by Roddy White as the top-PPR WR in 2010.
As for Calvin Johnson, I think it’s largely out of his hands as to whether or not he repeats. The single biggest factor in my mind is Matt Stafford’s health. I was very impressed by Stafford in 2011 and hope he can continue his level of production and make it through another season without missing significant time.
When watching Megatron play, he appears to be unstoppable and seems to be getting better with time. Additionally, the Detroit running game continues to be a mess with all their backs having some sort of significant health issue. Plus on top of that, the other receiving options present no threat of reduced targets for Megatron.
There is one red flag in the numbers. Megatron’s TD to reception ratio is rather high. Of the top-20 PPR scorers in 2011, he had the third highest at 17% (behind only Jordy Nelson and Laurent Robinson). We all know that touchdowns are somewhat hard to predict and if there is one area where he may regress at it’s this ratio. Admittedly, I feel like I’m forcing this issue because I feel compelled to say something negative. Would it really matter if he has 14 touchdowns in 2012 rather than 16? No.
Calvin Johnson is the undisputed WR1 in dynasty. While one can debate who the RB1 is, there is no debate here. While he’s not a lock to repeat as the top scorer, he’s a lock to finish in the top-5 and that’s really what we ought to be looking for in our early draft picks. More than a high ceiling, it’s nice to know that he has a high floor. He isn’t going to pull a Randy Moss of 2010 on you.
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as tstafford.
