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Draft Duel: Griffin over Luck?


Congratulations!  You have the first pick in your fantasy league rookie draft and you have a need at the quarterback position.

If you are in this situation, you must admit that during those quiet moments, when left alone with your thoughts, far away from the neon pulse of SportsCenter or the NFL Network and the constant barrage of fantasy news streaming to your LCD screen, you’ve at least considered the possibility.

Could it be that Robert Griffin III is  the better fantasy selection over Andrew Luck?

If you listen to the talking the heads, you’ve heard that Stanford’s Andrew Luck is hailed as the best rookie quarterback since Peyton Manning, or even perhaps John Elway.  Put me down in the camp of the latter.  If you’ve read my rookie film room article on Luck, you understand why he is so highly rated.  However, this is fantasy football and an efficient, intelligent and strong armed quarterback doesn’t necessarily lead a team to fantasy prominence, even if he is of the once-in-three-decade variety.  The quarterback is not a team unto himself and without playmakers around him and a system that makes use of his talents, pedigree and promise, it simply won’t equate to fantasy production.

And this year, you have more information to help you make your decision.  It is now obvious that, barring a change of heart by Indianapolis, Andrew Luck will be a Colt and Robert Griffin III will be a Redskin.  So all things considered, is Andrew Luck the easy choice as first quarterback off the board?  Or is a selection of Robert Griffin III a sneaky fantasy selection?  It’s not an apples to apples comparison.

Andrew Luck
Indianapolis Colts
6’4″/234/4.67

Andrew Luck is a better prospect than any I have analyzed coming out of college, it really is that simple and I cannot overstate that.  To find fault in any area of his game is almost unfair because one has to look so closely to find it.  That being the case, to what end is it a worthy exercise?  Sure, I’d like to see him display the same velocity and accuracy rolling out to his left, but he’s plenty good enough.  It’s been said that he isn’t efficient with lifting his back foot during throws.  I’ve re-analyzed and while it’s true on occasion, I wouldn’t change a thing.  The point is, it’s all too easy to zoom in too closely in an attempt to find a fault.  It’s an exercise that need not be done for fantasy coaches.

The question marks surrounding Luck have nothing to do with the skills and abilities that he’s bringing to Indy as much as they are surrounding the Colts in general.  So much change, so much work to be done.  A new coaching staff, a new receiving corps, a new system and a lot of new faces.  There’s no other way to put it, there’s a major youth movement underway in Indianapolis.  Kudos to the Colts for not wavering on what needed to be done and to making it happen.  Gone are Peyton Manning, Pierre Garcon, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez , Joseph Addai, Jacob Tamme and even trusted center Jeff Saturday.  In a surprise move, Reggie Wayne has re-signed.  Will the Colts be successful enough at establishing a new foundation from which Andrew Luck may achieve his destiny?  They’ve done it before.

A selection of Andrew Luck as the first quarterback off the board is a selection with the belief that the tangible qualities of Luck, being as great as they are, are enough to dictate a level of ultimate success.  Jim Irsay has proven to be shrewd and successful owner and CEO over the years.  Time will now tell whether his level of success was set atop the capable arm and mind of Peyton Manning alone or if more variables were in the equation.  Either being the case, it appears as though the Colts have their next Peyton Manning and history may, indeed, repeat itself.

Remember Peyton’s first year and keep expectations low.  A 56.7% completion percentage, 26:28 TD-to-INT ratio and a 71.2 quarterback rating didn’t portend greatness to come.  Following is Luck’s three-year run with Stanford:

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2011 288 404 3517 71.3 8.71 62 37 10 11 169.7
2010 263 372 3338 70.7 8.97 81 32 8 6 170.2
2009 162 288 2575 56.3 8.94 63 13 4 6 143.5

Robert Griffin III
Washington Redskins
6’2 3/8″/223/4.41

Keep your ear to the ground and you’ll hear many scouts and general managers who prefer Robert Griffin III (RGIII) over Andrew Luck.  Natural and dynamic mobility, an engaging personality and a monster wrist-snap all combine to yield a very intriguing professional prospect.  Most experts don’t question whether both will be successful or not – the question is really how successful will they be?  In the NFL, the measuring sticks are different than in fantasy.  One needs only to view the fantasy production of Carolina’s Cam Newton in 2011 to see the potential.  The 6-10 Panthers missed the playoffs by a wide margin,  but in fantasy, Newton passed and ran his way to a top five fantasy performance in most scoring formats.  Not top five within the quarterback position, top five overall!

RGIII looks to be heading to the Redskins.  The only threat to that selection rests with the Colts who pick ahead of Washington and are seemingly locked on to to Andrew Luck.  It’s as good as a done deal as it gets at this stage in the game.  Whereas the Colts are rebuilding from a stripped down offense, the Redskins have pieces in place and have added more with the expectation that RGIII will need veteran weapons to produce early and often.  But have they done enough?  Additions of Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan have solidified the depth chart, but don’t elicit a significant level of excitement when combined with the current corps of Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Leonard Hankerson, Fred Davis and others.  Capable?  Yes.  Exciting?  No.

I am not a fan of owner Daniel Snyder nor Mike Shanahan.  However, one thing that can be said about Snyder is he is not afraid to spend the money to bring in big name free agents.  I would have preferred to have seen Vincent Jackson added, but this is not a process that will be determined a success over a single season.  I look for Snyder and the Redskins to make significant moves in free agency next year should this year’s experiment not produce immediate results.

Many are comparing RGIII with both Michael Vick and Cam Newton.  RGIII is not the runner that Vick was coming out, but is twice the passer.  RGIII is a more mature and sound passer than is Cam Newton based on my film review, as well.  He’s compact, effortless in his delivery, smart and with the aforementioned wrist-snap that makes him special.  The combination of his passing skills and dynamic running ability will strike fear in opposing defenses from day one.  I only wish he had a receiving corps.that had at least a single, young, WR1 as opposed to a stable of secondary receivers.  Santana Moss, should he stay in Washington, may get a bump in value, but I won’t be raising his personal ranking based on Griffin’s arrival.

RGIII’s assets are as intriguing as are Luck’s. Griffin’s fantasy prospects may even be greater early in his career, though.  At least enough that makes this debate a functional exercise.  If your scoring system awards quarterback touchdowns and rushing yards to the same level as running backs and wide receivers, the decision process gets much more difficult.  Griffin is sure to pile up rushing yards and score multiple times with his feet.  Should he develop chemistry with his receivers such that it provides notable passing yardage, Griffin has the potential to match Cam Newton’s numbers from 2011.  Expecting top five fantasy production in year one is not something I’m fond of forecasting, and I won’t do so here. However, it is a possibility.

Following is RGIII’s stat sheet from his four years at Baylor:

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2011 291 402 4293 72.4 10.68 87 37 6 27 189.5
2010 304 454 3501 67.0 7.71 94 22 8 20 144.2
2009 45 69 481 65.2 6.97 42 4 0 4 142.9
2008 160 267 2091 59.9 7.83 61 15 3 28 142.0

Summary

You shouldn’t allow me to escape without giving you my conclusion.  Nor would I try.

It’s a good problem to have, but not one I want.  It is just these types of decisions that help create a fantasy dynasty or a perpetual rebuilding process.  Much like Indianapolis in 1998 who had to choose between Tennessee’s Peyton Manning and Washington State’s Ryan Leaf, get it wrong and the after effects and impact can be dire.  There is no shame in picking second and getting it wrong, but picking first and doing the same will create lost sleep and a fair amount of acrimony.  Of course, there is the great possibility that both quarterbacks will achieve to great levels and I believe that is a distinct possibility.  Ryan Leaf was not a well liked individual coming out whereas both Luck and Griffin III are.

I often like to take calculated risks in my fantasy selections.  It’s a live by the sword, die by the sword method of fantasy management.  However, when it comes to my quarterback selections, the league has a long history of prototypical quarterbacks that line the Hall of Fame.  Andrew Luck is as great as any of these coming out of college.  There is little doubt that the NFL game, especially at the quarterback position is changing very quickly.  Strong armed and accurate quarterbacks with good footwork remain the ultimate prize, but speed and mobility are quickly ascending the list of desired traits – Robert Griffin III has this in spades.

In the end, I would select Andrew Luck first overall, and not just in a duel here with RGIII.  Luck’s skill set, tangibles and maturity are just too much to pass up.  The Colts have a lot of work to do to build a franchise behind their new face, but it is my belief there is no better guide than experience toward being ultimately successful with any endeavor.  Jim Irsay and the Colts have done it before, understand the variables in the equation and can do it again.  Luck, as a better prospect than Peyton Manning in 1998, just has greatness written all over him and I’m not about to try to re-write history now.

It’s not often that a quarterback such as Andrew Luck is seen.  It’s even more rare that a second one matches up so well.   Make your own decision based on your own due diligence, but if you have the first pick in the draft this year and expect to have any need at the quarterback position within the next three years, make one of these two quarterbacks your selection.  There is nothing like 15+ years of fantasy stability at the quarterback position.

My selection is Andrew Luck.

Jeff Haverlack
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10 years ago

I would take RGIII. I always lean toward upside!

RP
10 years ago

And if you have extreme needs at rb as well should it be t rich over both?

We have a flex of any position so it’s almost a qb league as they score more generally.

the clarion contrarian
Reply to  RP
10 years ago

I say take the guy you will get a decade or better of stellar production from – with a rb – you get 3 or 4 great years and then the inevitable slide occurs Trich looks great but didn’t ingram and knowshown moreno previously coming out. League settings could make it close but give me the franchise qb every time unless I have a premium player at the qb position already.

Sensai_John_Kreese
Reply to  the clarion contrarian
10 years ago

I disagree in the sense that Moreno and Ingram looked good, but TRich is a different kind of animal. If i were drafting first, it would be Richardon, without hesitation. I don’t need a qb.

RP
Reply to  Sensai_John_Kreese
10 years ago

YOU dont need the QB so that doesnt help my dilema Sensai –

Trent def impresses me far more than Ryan Matthews, Ingram, or Moreno when they were drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

I never truly understood the hype behind Ingram. His running style was great from a fans prespective but he looks very Marion Barberesq. Thumper not complete.

Knowing what Cam has done I think the QB has more value than RB UNLESSSS its a 3 down back which might be 3 total in the NFL right now.

I honestly have all 3 rookies equal then a HUGE drop off. Same as last year. Picks 4 through 20 of a rookie pool will be pretty equal value for me. 4through6 only have slightly more value in that you can secure your mancrush otherwise goodness will fall in everyones laps.

Good crop this season.

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  RP
10 years ago

If you need both … I take the QB in this case. If you’re set on QB for 3+ years, I’d take Richardson

Greg G.
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
10 years ago

The owner drafting first in my league is taking Luck. I have Stafford and Cutler and was considering taking RGIII with the second pick.Richardson is my other choice. Leaning toward Richardson but boy RGIII looks special. Makes more sense to take Trent though. Maybe I will feel better after his pro day. There seems to be a split jury on T. Rich being a true elite talent. Some say he is good, others say he is special. RGIII and Luck are special. Is T. Rich special?

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  Greg G.
10 years ago

I’m in the minority but I don’t see TRich as special. Very good yes … but history in fantasy doesn’t lie. Most RBs taken first overall in fantasy become producers but NOT studs.

If TRich gets a good O-Line I think he can be a very very good back. But I don’t see that happening given his projected situational possibilities. We’ll see.

RobertBobson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
10 years ago

That’s a really poor argument, Jeff. TRich’s success or failure is completely independent of Ingram’s, Moreno’s, Jstew’s or Matthews’. You’re making a pattern out of unrelated events. TRich is, by near universal acclaim by scouts, the best RB prospect since AP. That is what you should care about, you should care about his specific skill set and how well it does ( or does not) translate to the pros. If you have an argument about why something about TRich’s game bodes poorly for his NFL success, you should make that argument (and I would be interested in hearing it). The argument you should not make is one based independent outcomes and try to shoe horn them into an reason why TRich is likely to fail. It’s akin to betting on black in roulette because the last 3 spins have been black. TRich’s odds of fantasy success and failure are his own, they have nothing to do with the odds of any other back that has ever lived.

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
10 years ago

Well, OF COURSE I look at the skill set of the RB well ahead of draft history. And I’ve watched a ton of tape on Richardson. I don’t see the elite talent given the offensive line he played behind. I don’t see the ability to create when nothing else was there like Peterson or McFadden was able to do. I didn’t see the phone-boot agility that leads me to believe that he’ll be able to take over a game on a bad team. My point is that given what I have seen in Richardson and then comparing draft history, there’s not enough there for me to take him #1. I would NEVER simply say you can’t take a player because of unrelated draft history.

tidewaterjc
10 years ago

Good article Jeff… was just thinkin this today as I have the 1.04 in a couple of leagues and wouldn’t be upset if someone valued RG3 over Luck…. or even if I was left with Blackmon

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  tidewaterjc
10 years ago

1.04 is a great spot. I have the 1.04 as well in one of my main leagues and this top tier is 4 deep. No decision to be made. Just take whoever falls.

RP
10 years ago

Jeff – I have:

QBs:
Flacco
Locker
Gabbert (odds Ill drop him as the more players you keep the last add/drops you get during the season so a team keeps 6 to 12 players max generally speaking)

RBs:
JSteward
Toby Gerhart
Stevan Ridley
Bernard Scott (will prob cut)
Montario Hardesty (will prob cut)

Stacked with 5 nice WRs (AJ Green, E.Decker, Sidney Rice, Greg Little, Amendola) but my league is full of owners who fear losing in trades so they are hard to come by.

PS I inherited a rough roster and traded all my avg players for rookie picks last year and essentially forfited my season.

As you can see Im desperate to get the best of the 3. I have my top 3 rookie 2013 picks plus my 13overall this year offered for picks 2 or 3 overall this year and not a word from either owner. Tough league to trade.

Greg G.
Reply to  RP
10 years ago

Wow, that IS a rough roster. Flacco is serviceable but I would go RGIII in your case. His upside is tremendous. You can always find a decent runningback or receiver as the season progresses. Game changing quarterbacks are hard to come by.

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  RP
10 years ago

Flacco is a serviceable QB2 but you’re lacking a heavy hitter. Your WR group is okay for now and a little questionable if Rice doesn’t return to his old form … but young enough to have upside.

I’d wait on cutting Hardesty until you find out what CLE does at RB. Ridley at least has a clear shot at the RB1 in NE, but that doesn’t usually amount to much at this point.

I still have this year’s rookies ranked as:

Luck
Griffin
Richardson
Blackmon

…in that order.

RP
10 years ago

Also offered Flacco and Sidney for 2 or 3overall – heard nothing and both teams need qb and wr. I just dont have much more to offer.

Should I be paying more than that?

Greg G.
Reply to  RP
10 years ago

Now may not be the time for trades. As the need develops for other teams, you can move a guy like Flacco later in the year when owners aren’t as guarded and are making a push for the post season. Timing is everything. In our league, NOBODY is willing to trade unless you are willing to take a loss. In other words, nobody is trading. Lol.

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  RP
10 years ago

If you aren’t getting bites then you’ll have to pay more. But just because you can get bites for upping your offer doesn’t mean that you should. In most cases, I recommend building through younger players that have a couple of years in the league before trying to accumulate draft picks that have a LOT of risk to them. I’d rather get a known commodity than a 50%+ chance of getting a complete bust. Each year is different and this year’s group looks pretty good through the top 4.

If you can secure a QB position for 12+ years with the addition of Luck or Griffin, then this year it makes sense to over pay a bit without giving up a lot of your future. I think this year’s top two QBs are that good.

After that, you’re roster needs to be rounded out with a bit less mystery, but it doesn’t look horrible. You need a QB1 and a high upside RB2 to go with Stewart and Ridley.

Reply to  RP
10 years ago

Yes sir, that is a low-ball offer IMO. Your gonna have to step up your offer if you want to land on of those picks.

Joe
10 years ago

I have 1.01 in my 32 team dynasty league.

If all my trades pan out my roster will be as follows:
———- = Empty spot on my roster
We have a multitude of options on how we line up offensively…im probably going to go with 1 rb, 2 wr’s, and 2 te’s
QB
—————————
John Skelton
Ryan Mallet
RB
Beanie Wells
Ben Tate
Larod Stephens-Howlings
John Clay
WR
Dez Bryant
Randall Cobb
Ramses Barden
Chastin West
Krish Durham
—————————
TE
Jermichael Finley
Ed Dickson
DJ Williams
K
Alex Henery
DT
Broderick Bunkley
Christian Ballard
—————————
DE
Lawrence Jackson
Wallace Gilberry
Brandon Graham
Dexter Davis
LB
Curtis Lofton
Kavell Connor
Jason Worilds
Obrien Schofield
Mark Herzlich
Quan Sturdivant
—————————–
CB
Captain Munnerlyn
Chris Cook
Sam Shields
Davon House
—————————–
S
Kam Chancellor
Taylor Mays
—————————–
—————————–

I feel like my team is young enough where I can be patient but good enough where I could win a ton of games now. I view Luck as the better player over the long haul but am terrified they wont add the correct players around him due to Grigson never being a GM before. Maybe I am buying too heavily into the hype machine surrounding RG3, but wouldn’t he be the safer bet?

Josh G
Reply to  Joe
10 years ago

I think RG3 will likely have earlier success than Luck which will send thousands and/or millions of people who drafted Luck into a mental frenzy, but if just about every scout and blogger is predicting greatness along the level of Elway and Manning, I think if you are patient (and with a 32 team league, you likely need to be!), then you would be best served by taking the true safer bet in Luck.

/run-on

bigred
10 years ago

I have tom brady and mike vick.I have pick# (1:03). I have rb’s chris johnson, lewis magahee, reggie bush, jahvid best. if t-rich is gone,do i still take a qb at #3 overall? do i take blackmon if he’s there at 3? i have roddy white,marcus colston,mike wallace,nelson jordy, greg little. will listen to all for good advice.

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  bigred
10 years ago

I have Tom Brady myself in one of my main leagues, along with Flacco and Dalton and I’d take either QB that fell to me if I was at all comfortable with my WR corps.

Josh G
Reply to  bigred
10 years ago

Even though both Vick and Brady are aging, I’d simply take whatever falls into your lap of RG3, Luck or TRich.
The jury is out on just about all of your RBs (CJ bounces back? Best should retire if he is smart, Bush is injury prone and now has no WRS or QB there, and McGahee is a RB3 at best)…seems simple to me..not to mention your WR corps is solid..maybe you can pick up someone like Kendall Wright later in the draft?

Jeff Haverlack
10 years ago

Maybe. But I couldn’t do it at 1.01. Mobile QBs built upon speed such as RGIII just haven’t panned out THAT well at the NFL level. The big hitters and speed on defense can often mitigate the speed of the quarterback and make him pay. RGIII is a different cat as he looks to have all the tangible qualities to make for a good QB first with speed second … that could be a very dangerous combination.

But Luck is a prototypical quarterback that most would fall over themselves to get. He’s the best I’ve ever seen coming out but I was too young to watch Elway. Luck is more developed than Manning and has much better mobility.

I share your fear of what could be and it may be a 50/50 proposition as to who is better or if they are both great. But if I had to make the pick, I’d take Luck and then sacrifice a goat to the fantasy gods that IND can do it again. If a coach decides to take Griffin, I wouldn’t argue that … I can see the allure for sure.

Go with YOUR gut and a decision that you can sleep with.

Joe
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
10 years ago

Thats the problem………no matter what I am going to have sleepless nights. Lol.

But, thanks for the input. I am leaning Luck. I just wish Indy could put some pieces around him to alleviate my fears.

Josh G
Reply to  Joe
10 years ago

No one would fault you for taking Luck if he doesnt pan out.

But he will…….:)

StevieMo
10 years ago

I’ve watched every Stanford game the last 3 years because of Andrew Luck. The guy is Peyton Manning with wheels. As good as I think Griffin is, no way in hell you pass on Luck. He is going to be an all-time great, whereas Griffin has a CHANCE to be great.

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  StevieMo
10 years ago

“Peyton Manning with wheels” – That essentially covers it with me and what I believe as well. I also like his release more than Manning when he came out. He’s solid as solid gets.

Joe
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
10 years ago

What about all the talk you hear about him being too flighty in the pocket?

Rp
Reply to  Joe
10 years ago

Havent heard or seen much flighty qualities…

At least not from quality critics…

Something that would scare me though since he had 2 1st rounders in his off line

Josh G
Reply to  Rp
10 years ago

Because no O-line in the NFL has 1st or 2nd rounders there….

/sarcasm

StevieMo
Reply to  Joe
10 years ago

He has great pocket awareness and feel, and moves easily to the open area. He can roll out and throw on the run, or take off and go for 20 yards. He moves around in the pocket like Brady but has more arrows in his quiver if things break down.

I’ve also seen him run defenders over several times and he hit a USC defender like Ray Lewis after throwing an interception in 2010. I’d like to have a conversation with anyone who watched Luck play for 3 years (I did) and considers him “flighty.” The dude’s a beast.

DLF_Jeff
Reply to  Joe
10 years ago

I’m okay with him sliding and moving out of the pocket as long as he’s doing so with his eyes downfield. And I’m okay too if he eventually tucks it in and goes. I have no issues with Luck relating to how he slides or rolls out of the pocket. You can see him looking downfield and analyzing all the way through his progressions and as things break down beyond his progressions.

Krcil
10 years ago

How come no one is talking about how RG3 is going to be considerably more injury prone than luck or even any other top tier talent in the draft?

I agree that he is a special talent and maybe could compete with Luck, but he has just played his first full year since High School I think.

Any one else see the parallels with Vick (minus the mental side). Sure RG3 is a few inches taller and 10-20 lbs heavier, but he still has that smaller frame when compared to “traditional” QB’s. Anyone else agree with me?

DLF_Jeff
Reply to  Krcil
10 years ago

Absolutely! That’s the downside of the mobility factor and it plays into Luck being above RGIII. But if he can stay healthy, the dynamic is enough to make for a very productive QB. It’s certainly a big “if” but many will be willing to take the risk.

FAF
Reply to  Krcil
10 years ago

Yes I fully agree… unlike Cam Newton, RGIII looks wiry to me. I have a burning feeling that he is going to get hurt early and often (my guess would be the knees).

RP
10 years ago

so lets get this straight —

Luck = best qb since Manning or possibly Elway.

YET

he is being talked about regularly as good as RG3 YET no one ways RG3 is one of the best qbs in past decade let alone 3 decades.

Which is it?

DLF_Jeff
Reply to  RP
10 years ago

It could very well be both. But RGIII isn’t of the same mold as Luck. Luck is much more polished as a prototypical QB and the evaluation is much easier to do with Mannings and Elways of the world from the past. With RGIII, it’s a different mold and there hasn’t been a QB of that mold that really compares on that level. RGIII with only Luck’s level of mobility, which is still fair, isn’t on the same plane in my mind. Luck is just too polished in that regard.

But RGIII in fantasy could easily exceed Luck depending on the variables in their respective drafted situations. It’s RGIII’s mobility that really inserts a more interesting valuation metric into the matter.

Schaubs
10 years ago

I have 1.01 in PPR keeper with Rivers, Green, White, Wayne, Mendy, Pettigrew. Keep 6. Obv I need a RB… or is there any argument for taking Luck instead?
QB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, TE, K, D.

Josh G
Reply to  Schaubs
10 years ago

Couldnt keep another RB and drop Pettigrew and/or Mendy?

RP
Reply to  Josh G
10 years ago

You should either commit to rebuilding or going for broke ultimately. Luck is rebuild TRich is your guy to compete this year.

In my case I have a QB/RB/WR/TE flex so a 2nd QB is super valuable. You have a half of a Running back in Mendy and Green I presume is AJ but if its Shonn youre in trouble! TRich is your guy either way for me if its Shonn.

DLF_Jeff
Reply to  Schaubs
10 years ago

I think Pettigrew and Wayne are both candidates for release in this format if you have another RB to keep instead. Mendy likely isn’t going to be over effective until the last few games at best in my mind. I expect him to be PUP’d and miss at least the first half.

Either way though, I’d lean heavily toward TRich in your situation. Rivers is sliding a bit in value and with Gates aging quickly and Vjax gone, I don’t expect a monster 2012. But he’s young enough and effective enough to keep you in games. Trich will start immediately for you and has a chance to be very good for a long time.

Schaubs
10 years ago

Yes, it’s AJ Green I was referring to sorry.

The only other players I have that I could keep are:
Pierre Thomas
Ryan Williams
Delone Carter
Montario Hardesty
Vincent Brown
Austin Collie

I can opt to keep a rookie as a 7th player and give up a third round pick. I have two 3rds so it seems reasonable to keep Ryan Williams and see what happens. The kid is, well, a kid still.

So based on the players above, who would be your top 7 (use Green or Williams or Brown in rookie spot if needed) or do I just go with 6 and keep the 39th pick overall. Lots of decisions, lots of time but I though you guys would be the best place to start!

I still think Wayne can be a good WR3 for me and having a young TE is not so bad either. It allows me to focus my draft and not have to worry so much about filling roster spots right away.

I am open to all suggestions and strategies. Thanks

DLF_Jeff
Reply to  Schaubs
10 years ago

Actually, I’m fine with your original list and I think I would keep Ryan Williams. Don’t like the injury but he’s still young.

And we’re definitely the place to start … and finish. Get registered on the boards and put your question out there too. You’ll get a lot of help/responses.

10 years ago

I am in a first year 12 team dynasty ppr leaque. We did our draft back in febuary and with my first 3 picks I obtained brees, graham, and welker. For the rest of the draft i picked a rookie draft pick abbout every 3rd pick or so. I have picks 1.2, 1.5, 1.8 1.12, 2.1,2.2
I like my players I did get. My RB’s are Leshoure, and Michael Bush. Took chances there, then I have a few wr2/ wr3 guys..So I have a solid core, elite QB and TE ..So what to do at 1.2 ..I know #1 is going with richardson..I’m think RG3..then runners with 5, and 8..then rattle off 3 wr’s with 12,13, 15 ..looks like rookies like Sanu, Wright, Toon will be there …any suggestions?

DLF_Jeff
Reply to  Sully
10 years ago

What will happen at 1.03 and 1.04? I’d consider taking Blackmon at 1.02 if this is a PPR league and then using 1.05 to take either Luck/Griffin if one of them fall. Or, if you feel you do need a RB, take Luck/Griffin as you said at 1.02 and then roll back with either Wilson or Miller at RB since one would be available (Blackmon would go in one of the two following picks). I’d still lean toward Luck over Griffin III.

Too soon to tell for the 2nd round of fantasy WRs. Wait until after the draft or find receivers in the NFL now that you can possibly get for those 2nd rounders. Look for a team that has a lot of WRs that may be looking to thin them out.

Joe
10 years ago

Jeff,

I really enjoyed the article, I have an interesting situation brewing in my league. Through a series of trades, I now inherit the 1st and 2nd picks in a dynasty keeper league. My QB is Tony Romo, which I obviously know isn’t the long (and maybe short) term solution. I am torn between taking Luck and RG3 back to back, assuming one of them hits it big or taking Richardson (RB is a area of need- started BJGE and Johnathan Stewart) and one of the QB’s listed above. Of course I could pass on these QB’s entirely and take Richardson and Blackmon.

As you can see, I have a good yet frustrating problem to have, any advice?

Reply to  Joe
10 years ago

Joe, I happen to find myself in exactly the same situation. My team has the 1.01 and 1.02 picks (as well as 1.05 & 1.07). I am in full rebuild mode, with needs at every position. It’s a 10 team, PPR IDP league. And unless something dramatic happens, I will be selecting the two most sure-fire picks in the draft, Luck and TRich.

Nothing is ever guaranteed, one or both of them could fail, but they are both as reliable picks as you can find in a draft.

When you are making selections at the very beginning of the draft, you need to make sure you get value out of those picks. Grab the safest high value players you can get. This year, they are Luck and Richardson.

I believe RG3 will be very good. I would love to have him on my team. His upside in fantasy may even be higher than Luck’s. But I firmly believe Luck is the safer pick, and therefore should be one of your two picks.

Unless you are in a 2 QB league, you are probably better off taking the next most sure thing in TRich. Blackmon is a consideration, but I personally would not take him ahead of either TRich or RG3.

Good luck in the draft, it’s a great position to be in.

DLF_Jeff
Reply to  Joe
10 years ago

I echo what Ken says above me. He’s in that same situation and we have discussed it ourselves. His advice is sound and I’d be doing the same.

SMW
10 years ago

Looking for some other peoples opinions on a QB issue I have right now and figured you guys were the way to go. I’m in a dynasty league where we can only keep 1 starting QB and at the moment I have Vick as a RFA. I also have the #1 pick in my draft so I could get RGIII or Luck for 5 years or resign Vick for 3 and go a different route (trade or keep the pick). Thoughts?

Matt
10 years ago

Change the rules in the league.

SMW
10 years ago

lol 32 team league. Its an unfortunate but necessary rule considering how things had happenned in the past.

Matt
Reply to  SMW
10 years ago

I didn’t realize it is 32 team league, that is cool. Take T Rich.

FAF
10 years ago

I’m in a 10-team dynasty league with first draft pick. My QB stable is Cam Newton, Matt Flynn & Tim Tebow. I plan on trading/dropping Tebow and picked up Flynn on waivers at the end of last season (before he lit Detroit up!) expecting him to go to Seattle and win the starting job. Flynn is such a wildcard that to ensure absolute future stability I feel the need to take another high-end rookie QB with my pick.

I was so high on Griffin being a throwing/running QB with the likes of Newton but the more I watch RG3 tape, the more I get this burning feeling that he is going to get hurt early and often. History says that only one of these guys will have a successful and lengthy career and I’m leaning more and more towards Luck being the guy that does.

My current 2012 starting roster:

QB – Cam Newton
RB1 – Roy Helu
RB2 – Issac Redman
WR1 – Dwayne Bowe
WR2 – Robert Meachem
TE – Rob Gronkowski
K – Neil Rackers

RB ALTS – Daniel Thomas, Jacquizz Rodgers, Jahvid Best, Donald Brown, Kendall Hunter
WR ALTS – Damian Williams, Golden Tate, Jon Baldwin
TE ALT – Kyle Rudolf

FAF
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
10 years ago

I definitely need help at the RB position because pretty much all of my backs are #2’s or injury-prone. I’ve decided I would consider TRich if he went to the Bucs. If to the Browns, I would not consider him as there are other backs that I could land in the second round who may have better situations (Martin, Wilson, Polk, Ballard & Turbin are on my list).

Due to the nature of this draft and 2013 projected lineup, I think my best move is to take another QB that will set my team up at the position for years to come.

This is only my second season in a 5-year running league (I was one of two expansion teams) so I’m pretty happy with my team even with scrapping for scraps last season. Thanks for the feedback.

Stubby
9 years ago

Im in a 12 team dynasty (year 5) and attempting to re-build but trying to stay competitive, make the playoffs.

Through grinding it out in the offseason i’ve managed to aquire
1.02 1.04 and 1.07 in this years draft.

I’m sure the first pick is going to be T-pain, which leaves me in the huge QB delema of Luck vs RGIII. My starter for the last 5 years has been Phillip Rivers and i’m pretty sold on picking up Luck (made my decision after seeing his pre season game!).

My question is..should i pick up Doug Martin with the #4th overall pick? I need a solid RB#2 but RBs from the SEC make me wary

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