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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag!

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

Let’s get to it!

1:)  Would you trade Julio Jones and Jermichael Finley for Jimmy Graham?  Jeff in New Jersey

Short answer: No.

I don’t think there’s much of a difference in value between Julio Jones and Jimmy Graham straight up.  My bet is that the general consensus might even have Julio valued higher – I know I do.

My guess is you know that and your team is probably stacked with talent.  You may even have Julio riding the pine most weeks and you want to get those points that separate Graham and Finley.  I understand the temptation, but RESIST.

If anything, Jimmy Graham is a sell high and Finley a buy low, so you are getting the bad end of both.  I’m having a real hard time accepting that Graham (and Rob Gronkowski) are actually worth the trade values they are getting and the draft positions I’m seeing.  I anticipate a regression in total points for both of them.  In PPR leagues, Graham outscored the next TE (Aaron Hernandez) by almost 90 points and over 3 PPG.  That is pretty much the width of the Grand Canyon.  I’m betting against a repeat, but people are paying like it’s a certainty to occur.

 

2:)  In a non-PPR league, do you think Mike Williams TBB is a good “buy low” or should he just be avoided?Josh from the Honey Badger Habitat

The most common questions I get in the mailbag seem to involve Tampa Bay.  As an owner who was all in on Arrelious Benn and LeGarrette Blount, I understand why.  What a disappointing 2011 for every player on Tampa Bay.  There wasn’t a silver lining to be found anywhere.

I was leery of Tampa Mike coming into 2011 and had him as a sell high.  My concern was he couldn’t repeat his touchdown production and that his scoring was highly touchdown dependent.  In a non-PPR in 2010, he was the WR#13 in scoring, tied for WR#4 in touchdowns but was WR#19 in yards and WR#27 in receptions – this is a recipe for regression.  Side note: I’m looking at you out of the corner of my eye Jordy Nelson.

As to his trade value in your non-PPR, I’ll “buy-low” on anybody including Tampa Mike, but it better be low in this case.  My guess (and what I see in the forums) is that most of his owners are resigned to just holding him rather than selling cheap.  Recent drafts I’ve reviewed have him falling to the seventh round against being taken in the third just a year ago.  Owners have a hard time swallowing that pill and moving him.

I’d buy him, but not above his ADP, which would mean that I’d give the likes of Pierre Garcon, Denarius Moore or his teammate Blount.  I doubt many owners deal him for that, though.
3:)  I’m in a 2QB league with Cam Newton and Andy Dalton as my current QBs.  Was offered the 1.05 and the 1.09 for the 1.03.  What do you think? Jack from Spring Green, WI

I think you win in this trade rather handily.  In your note, you say your team is weak and therefor getting an extra pick will be excellent.  This is a deep draft class and the 1.09 is going to carry a great deal of value in all formats, but it becomes all the more attractive in a 2QB league.

You are giving up an elite pick in the 1.03 for sure.  That owner is going to take one of RGIII, Andrew Luck or Trent Richardson in all likelihood.  If that’s the case, you will end up with either the RB#2 in the draft or Justin Blackmon – not bad at all.  Either one will be a very nice addition to an otherwise weak team that has a solid pair of quarterbacks.

As to the 1.09, the options will be wide open at that point.  There will still be good talent at both running back and wide receiver for you to choose from.  And of course you’ll have the option to consider trade offers to move out of the pick.

What interests me about this question is the possibility of Ryan Tannehill with the 1.09.  The Luck/RGIII hype has overshadowed Tannehill and he’s becoming a dynasty sleeper in my opinion.  Obviously he’s not going in the first round of any 1QB rookie draft, but I’m not so sure in a 2QB league.  Tannehill is a raw prospect because he didn’t start many games at A&M after switching from wide receiver.  I’m betting he goes in the first round of the NFL draft and, if given time to develop, could be a very solid fantasy player in a 2QB format.
4:)  Is CJ2K going to bounce back in 2012 Random Looking Numbers and Letters via Twitter

Short answer: Yes.

First, CJ2K wasn’t as bad as people made him out to be in 2011.  He really doesn’t have far to bounce back from.  He finished 2011 as the RB#9 in PPR leagues ahead of Steven Jackson, Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson.  Of course the problem was the distribution of those points.  Weeks one through eleven accounted for 71% of CJ2K’s games played (oh and the bulk of the fantasy regular season), however, those weeks only accounted for 56% of his 2011 production.  Essentially if you somehow made the playoffs with CJ2K as your RB1, you had a very nice chance of making it to (and then losing) the championship game.

Second, the Titans are loaded with cap money.  They can pretty much buy whoever they want in free agency.  My guess is that Mike Munchak, a HoF Guard, was pretty disappointed about the play of the O-Line and will look to improve it going into 2012.  Separately, I’ve seen some rookie mock drafts that have David DeCastro falling to the Titans at 1.20.  That may be wishful thinking, but the Titans could get lucky. DeCastro is a solid, safe pick and probably a regular Pro Bowler (if that still exists in the future).

Third, Kenny Britt’s coming back.  It can only help CJ2K to have Britt threatening defenses with his tremendous playmaking ability.

Fourth, in 2011, CJ2K had his lightest workload since his rookie year.  That too can only be good.  He comes in fresh, without contract distractions and has said that he intends to lead the league in rushing.  Of course I suspect most elite running backs who just got paid $30 million guaranteed would say that.  However, for his owners it’s a whole heck of a lot better than what he was saying at this time a year ago.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as tstafford.

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C Russell
10 years ago

He would get the 1.05, not the 1.04, so he is looking at the next best after TRich, Luck, Black Mon and RG3. None will fall to him unless another has their eye on drafting need at RB/WR.

Trade still seems good but not that much of a slam dunk.

tstafford
Reply to  C Russell
10 years ago

Good catch. I meant to say Blackmon/Floyd. You’re on top of it!

tstafford
Reply to  C Russell
10 years ago

But you must admit, having either Blackmon or the RB#2 fall to him at the 1.05 isn’t that bad. Of course Floyd is a nice option too if he really wants to go WR.

Eric
Reply to  tstafford
10 years ago

likely that a rb will land well and get into the mix, could push RGIII back to 1.05

Chris R
10 years ago

Absolutely! I think the top 9 players should all be very good (if not elite as 1-3)

Fife
10 years ago

Hey all – I need some draft opinions and I am in a rebuilding process
16 team league – 40 man rosters, IDP, PPR

Notables QB – Dalton, RB – Mendenhall, Blount, WR-Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson, Defense-solid at all positions

I have the 1.3 and 1.12. Richardson and Luck figure to be gone before us. Do you trade down for multiple picks, take RG3 or Blackmon or stretch for a RB at 1.3?

Interested on your thoughts….

Reply to  Fife
10 years ago

I think its hard to pass up a franchise qb, with RG3 being a duel threat. I won my division with just the legs of Tebow as my QB. And this draft is very deep with WR.

Cyrus
Reply to  Jeff G.
10 years ago

I am curious about Blackmon v. RGIII myself.

I have Brady, but nobody else. At WR, I have more depth, but Andre and Colston are older.

My only other draft pick is 2.04.

10 years ago

Hello,
I have pick 1.4 & 1.5 in a 12 team PPR. TRich, Blackmon, & Luck will be gone. I have good depth. But this is what I have, and want to know who to draft. And thoughts on Lamar Miller, is next great The U RB?
QB – Sanchez, Flynn
RB – Foster, Lynch, Spiller
WR – Marshall, Britt, S. Johnson, Crabtree, Wayne
TE – Pettigrew, Celek

Josh G
Reply to  Jeff G.
10 years ago

Sanchez maybe is a fine bye-week filler/QB2..and who knows what Flynn will be like. In your position, I’d likely snag RG3, and then Lamar Miller/Doug Wilson etc at 1.5 unless you prefer Floyd or Wright..etc

10 years ago

Is the consensus on this site that dynasty teams should draft Luck over RGIII? Mike Shannahan offence sure looks like it tailor made for RGIII? Opinions?

Stevec
10 years ago

Who holds more long term value DMC or cj2k? I have DMC now but thinking of trading for cj2k, due to inj history. Am I over reacting to his inj or should i move DMC for cj2k

Ken W.
10 years ago

It depends on whether you think CJ1K still has a few years left. I do, so I would go for the sure thing. DMC is crazy talented, but can never stay on the field. Any thoughts on these two offers?
12 team dynasty, standard ppr with 1 te, 2rb, 3wr and flex of either rb/wr/te-
team 1-Schaub, Matt HOU QB;Hardesty, Montario CLE RB;Green, A.J. CIN WR;Olsen, Greg CAR TE; Year 2013 Round 2 Draft Pick from team 1
Team 2- Freeman, Josh TBB QB;Smith, Torrey BAL WR;Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR;Davis, Vernon SFO TE; Year 2012 Draft Pick 1.11

Ended up doing that deal, although parting with AJ stung quite a bit. Now I am getting what I think is ridiculous offers for Vern.

team 1- offers Palmer, Carson OAK QB;Miller, Heath PIT TE; Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from team 7;Year 2013 Round 2 Draft Pick from team 2
team 2- for Freeman, Josh TBB QB;Davis, Vernon SFO TE

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