Rookies on the Decline
As our last rookie draft exercise has shown, the 2011 class is anything but deep and ultra-talented. It’s not that there’s not sure-to-be impact players within this year’s draft, it’s that the first tier of players is relatively shallow and there lacks any good definition between the following tiers. In fact, when looking beyond pick five, it’s safe to say that the next ten picks are completely up in the air and open to interpretation. Making matters worse, in the past two days rookies clearly in the top twelve have taken a significant hit in terms of value.
Ryan Williams, RB ARI
Ryan Williams left the game on a cart after a nasty knee injury Friday night. Let me first be very clear in that, as I write this, there has been no clear indication or update as to the extent of Williams’ injury. Following the game Cardinal’s coach Ken Whisenhut suggested that Williams is likely to be diagnosed with a ruptured patellar tendon, an injury that would cost him his first year and potentially threaten his career or his effectiveness going forward. With youth on his side Williams can recover from this injury, but as has been shown in previous cases (i.e. Cadillac Williams), it’s not often that the same runner returns following an injury of this nature. Note that Williams had been anything but injury free in college. If the injury is as expected, it’s a devastating blow to this year’s most dynamic running back and we wish him well on his recovery.
Fantasy wise, Williams has been picked at 1.04 or 1.05 in most rookie drafts, following Mark Ingram, A.J. Green and Julio Jones and on par with Miami’s Daniel Thomas. Following the injury, he’ll still go at 1.05 in many drafts but could slip further based on team need.
For the Cardinals, LaRod Stephens-Howling now moves up on the depth chart and Beanie Wells gets a significant upgrade in fantasy value. Those with an open roster spot and a gambler’s mentality may want to consider Alphonso Smith, who will likely now see touches.
Jonathan Baldwin, WR KC
Coming out of Pittsburgh, the talented Baldwin was said to be a diva and a head case, but not so much that it greatly affected his drafted value. I specifically removed Baldwin from the top fifteen of my draft board due to my concerns of an “entitlement” aspect to his personality. It’s a delicate balance when valuing receivers in this way because many of the great NFL receivers do have some of these qualities. But coming out of college, I initially downgrade the values of rookies that display this trait; the entitlement trait so early in a career rarely pays fantasy dividends.
In camp, Baldwin has been anything but spectacular or even impressive. The big receiver has been consistently jammed at the line and thrown off his routes early and often which has called into question his physicality and toughness, obviously frustrating Baldwin. This came to a head on Friday when it was reported that Baldwin and NFL veteran running back Thomas Jones were in engaged in a locker room altercation that left Baldwin with a wrist injury that was first considered season threatening. The injury has since been upgraded to a fracture that would sideline Baldwin for at least the remainder of the preseason and perhaps longer. Beyond that, one has to wonder if there has been greater injury to Baldwin’s ego such that he may never emerge as the playmaker that many hoped he would become. It’s far too early, obviously, to foretell such things but the question lingers nonetheless.
For the Chiefs, the absence of Baldwin as a potential target across from Dwayne Bowe leaves them relying on veterans Jerheme Urban and Steve Breaston for production. Neither are likely to draw significant attention from Bowe and neither project to anything other than a WR4 in fantasy.
Mikel Leshoure, RB DET
As we have already covered the Leshoure injury, not much more need be said about the situation. The talented bruising runner he is, an Achilles’ tendon injury is a major blow to Leshoure, who now takes a major drop into the second round of rookie drafts. As pointed out in our article on his injury, a recent study shows that one third of NFL players suffering this type of injury never return from it and for those that do, fifty percent don’t return with same strength or power. Much like Williams, Leshoure has youth on his side and many years ahead of him if he can recover, but physiology would seem to be stacked against him. We wish him luck on his recovery as well.
Shane Vereen, RB NE
What a difference a few weeks makes. Vereen had been an oft-selected rookie in the top ten of drafts early on but has since begun to slide as news continues to emerge that he’s been unable to recover from a hamstring injury and could be on the roster bubble, a somewhat shocking development for the second round selection. In preseason games, Stevan Ridley continues to turn heads with his production, making Vereen an afterthought. In all likelihood, the roster consideration is just talk at this point as Vereen hasn’t yet had the opportunity to showcase his dynamic style and it would be unlike the Patriots to cut bait on a highly drafted rookie so quickly.
Until further notice, Vereen is well deserving of the valuation slide of recent weeks and Ridley is, arguably, the better addition. As is so often the case for New England running backs, it’s a position fraught with mystery such that many fantasy coaches just prefer to ignore the situation altogether. For BenJarvus Green-Ellis, however, the lack of any real competition likely secures enough carries to again make him a respectable RB3 in fantasy.
Wrap-up
Every year, coaches drool at the possibilities and trade known fantasy production for the rights to select a coveted rookie. And every year, a majority of rookies fail to ever emerge and develop into fantasy producers. This year has been a particularly tough year outside of the top three and recent years have been just as suspect. Obviously, a year or two in no way defines a career but it certainly calls into question the reality of perceived vs. actual value of rookie draft picks in fantasy. With non-competitive fantasy teams often times relying on productive and exciting rookies to bolster weekly scores, recent years have shown just how tenuous a position that is.
For 2011, at least the big three are thus far playing up to their expectations.
….are you knocking on wood? You should be.
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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