Dynasty League Football


Lockout Logistics: Knowshon Moreno

The NFL lockout has created a situation we haven’t seen in a long time, if ever. With no free agent signings or trades allowed, the NFL Draft forced teams to change their strategies, knowing they weren’t guaranteed to land some of their desired free agents.

The result of all this chaos has had a direct effect on many current NFL players. In this series of articles, we take a look at some players who have had their value and fantasy situation directly affected either positively or negatively due to the lockout.

Today, we take a look at Denver running back Knowshon Moreno.

Moreno was one of the most coveted players in the 2009 NFL Draft and the Broncos shocked everyone when they took him twelfth overall. While the draft position itself wasn’t surprising, not many people expected Denver to be in the market for a new running back.

Based on Moreno’s collegiate stats, could you really blame them?

Moreno proved to be a creative and explosive runner for the Georgia Bulldogs from 2007-2008. For his career, he compiled 2,736 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns on a yards per carry average of 5.5. When you threw in 53 catches for another 655 yards and two touchdowns, it looked as if you found yourself the next dynamic weapon in the NFL.

Unfortunately, it hasn’t quite worked out.

Moreno’s Mile High career can only be described as average thus far. His rookie year produced 947 rushing yards, 213 receiving yards and nine total touchdowns. Now that certainly wasn’t horrible, but his 3.8 yards per carry average was concerning. He fared a little better last year, putting up 779 rushing yards, 372 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in just 13 games, while raising his yards per carry average to a more acceptable 4.3.

So, what does the lockout mean to Moreno?

With new Head Coach John Fox in town, there will be a greater emphasis on the running game and Moreno is by far the most talented back on the Denver roster. I’d go into great detail about the trends we’ve seen with Coach Fox, but don’t need to since Allen Matson, a guest writer of ours broke it down here.

Since the Broncos failed the address the running back position in the draft, they currently have Moreno, Lance Ball, an aging Correll Buckhalter, Jeremiah Johnson and LenDale White at running back – not exactly a group to threaten Moreno for a lot of touches.

With Coach Fox in town, there has been a lot of speculation that his former bellcow, DeAngelo Williams, may end up in Denver, thus zapping the fantasy potential of both running backs. With the lockout continuing into the Summer and possibly into the Fall, that scenario is seeming more and more unlikely, especially with the realistic chance that new rules in place will make Williams a restricted free agent, not an unrestricted free agent. If that happens, the Panthers have expressed a desire to keep him in Carolina to platoon with Jonathan Stewart.

If Moreno can somehow find himself without any true competition in the backfield at the onset of the season, he could be primed for a huge breakout. In fact, most Denver media outlets are reporting the Broncos are in the market simply for a decent backup to Moreno at this point, not a back who would challenge for significant carries. With Moreno’s health issues and inconsistencies over the past two seasons, that would be a huge and unforeseen break for him.

If he takes advantage, he could be an absolute steal in the second round of startup drafts as a back who has just now started to show us some of his dynamic ability and big-time fantasy potential.

He should be a target of dynasty owners this offseason if you believe in both his ability and the Broncos inability to add another serious competitor to spilt carries with him.

Moreno is a high risk acquisition, but you could be rewarded greatly if you can get him below market value this offseason.

Ken Kelly
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Team Canada
11 years ago

So am I in a lose-lose position here? I drafted Jstew and Moreno back to back in the 2nd and 3rd round. I really want Dwills to leave but not to Denver…

Bills Fan
Reply to  Team Canada
11 years ago

I feel your pain.. I have both JStew and Moreno in a 4 year old Dynasty league. Both have “Potential”, but both have been fantasy “Disappointments” up till now (compared to their cost). Say what you want about what either should/could do, up till now, either even as a #2 feels like a gamble and pray week to week. And I would love nothing more than to see DWill go somewhere that isnt Denver.

The worst part for me is that because of this, neither has the trade value equal to their cost/potential.

Hopefully you are Strong in other areas and can weather the storm until one or both fulfill.

John Fox will have a good running game in Denver even if Moreno is splitting time making him a decent #2/3RB at worst.. even if he brings in DWill.

To be completely honest, JStew is of bigger concern to me if DWill stays.
1. CAR loses that die hard Run First mindset in Fox,
2. They Suck. (come on.. as of right now, they do)
3. They NOW have a new Franchise QB who is going to cut into the goal line TDs, which was where JStew compensated for splitting time. And believe me, they will use him that way to help keep the fans behind him and the pick.. ala Tebow stealing goal line carries for and not much else at the end of the season.. Wait.. Tebow plays in Denver, and might end up the starter…..

Never mind,.. Yeah, we both look to be in lose-lose situations if those are our main RBs. If someone really believed in either enough to pay for them, I would definitely entertain trades.. Even where I’m taking a modest hit.

Team Canada
Reply to  Bills Fan
11 years ago

well I have cj2k as my RB1 but these guys are my RB2 and Flex guys. I think the mobile QBs actually open up lanes for the RBs. CJ2K had a monster year with young starting and McCoy did pretty well with Vick. I hope Newton and Tebow could have similar effects but now I`m just dreaming. I`m also dreaming about Dwills going to Miami…

11 years ago

I have a standing offer on the table of Ryan Mathews for Moreno…and I am waiting for the Deangelo shoe to drop before ultimately deciding what to do. I like Moreno’s upside slightly better than Mathews but not if Deangelo is a Bronco.

Also…I have picks 1.2 & 1.3 in my league’s rookie/free agent draft. Early rumors are that Green will go #1 so I am debating which 2 of the Jones/Ingram/Thomas trio I will pick. I have good depth at WR but RB is not a strength. Thoughts?

Johnny Five
Reply to  Ken Kelly
11 years ago

I think you have to keep Moreno. Mathews was a dissapointment last year and Ken is right about Tolbert. Moreno should be fine even if they bring in another quality RB. John Fox likes to run the ball so having another running back is better for Moreno since it will keep him healthy all year. Moreno most likely isn’t a top 5 RB, but he is in the top 15-20, I cant say that about Mathews.

11 years ago

I am counting heavily on Knowshon to deliver for me in 2011. He has shown dynamic ability, but has the old injury bug to get rid of if he plans on ever reaching his full potential. I am a Knowshon believer, but at the same time I hold my breath every time he runs, thinking his hammy might explode.

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