While Marty McFly never had a fantasy football team (though the Flux Capacitors could be a creative team name), we can learn a valuable lesson from the premise behind those movies – you should go back to the future. By this, I mean it’s important to use the future to your advantage. I’ve said many times that fantasy football is a little bit of math and a little bit of science. When looking at your team, there are three ways to use some math and science to get a step ahead. They are as follows:
1.) Avoid the big end of the two or three for one
2.) Use your roster limitations to your advantage
3.) Use generalized draft pick mindsets
Avoid the big end of the two or three for one
This is one of my biggest areas of avoidance. I will rarely sign off a two or three for one trade where I’m getting multiple players in return. Some coaches will attempt to convince you their package of players is equal to or greater than the value you’re giving up. While that may be true on paper, there are two things to consider.
1.) You’re likely not going to play all the players you get in return regularly
2.) This doesn’t take into consideration players you’ll have to drop
In essence, every trade involving players is always a “2 for 2” or “3 for 3” when you consider your roster limitations. It may be great to acquire 3 players, but keep in mind you’ll have to drop two players to make room…at the same time, the other coach gets to ACQUIRE two players off the wire for free, making it a 3 for 3. It’s rare to see the recipient of multiple players make out better in this type of a deal. The only exception would be if you’re getting back bona fide starters and #1 doesn’t apply. Even then, I prefer to get future commodities instead of players. See the next tip to understand why.
Use your roster limitations to your advantage
This is one area I NEVER avoid when building or rebuilding a franchise! In a dynasty league, you have roster limitations. It’s a way of life you have to accept. However, most dynasty leagues don’t have commodity restrictions. If you’re forward thinking enough, you can strategically position yourself for the future well with this strategy. For example, I spend a lot of effort to acquire the 2nd and 3rd round picks in my league as part of bigger trades. These don’t cost me any roster spots at the time of acquisition and I can always parlay them into better or future picks later if I choose not to use them. With no trades, every team would have a full roster and one pick for each round. If you use this wisely, you could have a full roster and massive picks for the future, setting your franchise up with a ton of flexibility. Many will say it poses a problem because you have to cut players when you draft, but if you plan properly, you can move excess players and/or trade those picks out into the future to acquire even more commodities. When used with tip #1, you can actually pull off a trade like this:
#1 in 2010
#1 in 2011
#2 in 2012
Take advantage of the roster limits to add two other prospects off the wire. For you, using the lack of a commodity restriction allows you to add two players to your roster as projects. This creates a trade where you not only get two #1s and a #2, but also two prospects for free. Knowledge of this basic fantasy math is essential for a rebuilding dynasty team.
Use generalized draft pick mindsets
If you’re really good at team analysis, this can be a really good asset. If you’re bad at it, avoid it like the plague. In many leagues, there is a group of coaches who view picks as equal by round. For example, some owners view a first round pick as something around #5, a 2nd round pick as something around #15, etc. If you can uncover these owners, you can really use this to your advantage. For example, if you believe your team will contend, another will not AND you’re confident in your analysis, you can approach another owner with an offer of your first round pick for a solid player and their second round pick. Some owners will look at that as #5 for a player and #15 by using generalized draft pick mindsets. You know better. In fact, you’re expectation is this trade is something like pick #9 or #10 for a significant player asset and pick#11 or #12. This can be an easy way to get real value for perceived value. It can certainly be applied for #2s, #3s, etc.
Use this tip wisely, though. If you’re in a league with some serious parity, I’d avoid it. While the difference in choices for a 10-team league could be as little as 1 (#10 vs. #11), it could be as great as 19 (#1 vs. #20) That’s a huge swing, so you better be confident in your analysis of both squads.. The more teams in your league, the more risk is associated as well.
Math and science can be applied as logical ways to build a team by avoiding the big end of the two or three for one, using your roster limitations to your advantage and using generalized draft pick mindsets. Successful application will ensure you’re the Marty McFly of your league, not the Biff Tannon.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
Latest posts by Ken Kelly (see all)
- The Dynasty Aftermath: Avengers Week - December 5, 2019
- DLF Acquires FFStatistics - December 2, 2019
- The Dynasty Aftermath: Johnny Cash Telling Jokes in a Cornfield - November 26, 2019