The creators of this site are obviously very involved in their own Dynasty Leagues. The 2008 Rookie and Free Agent Draft was just recently completed for one of those leagues. usual, there were many trades, trade discussions and disagreements over values of players and picks. As I sifted through the past five drafts for this league, I began to ponder something. What is a first round draft pick in a rookie draft really worth? So, I did a little research. This article reflects my case study.
To give you some background on the league, it has the following lineup requirements:
QB
RB
WR
TE
O Flex (RB, WR, TE)
O Flex (RB, WR, TE)
O Flex (RB, WR, TE)
D Flex (LB, DE, DB)
D Flex (LB, DE, DB)
D Flex (LB, DE, DB)
K
The league recently changed this and eliminated one of the “O Flex” positions to require starting at least 2 WRs. Scoring for offensive players is as follows:
TD (Pass, Receiving, or Rush) = 6 pts
10 Yards Rushing = 1 pt
10 Yards Receiving= 1 pt
There are other scoring items as well, but you get the picture. Here is the draft history of round one for that league:
2004
1. Kellen Winslow
2. Eli Manning
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Roy Williams
5. Kevin Jones
6. Steven Jackson
7. Julius Jones
8. Tatum Bell
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Reggie Williams
2005
1. Ronnie Brown
2. Carnell Williams
3. Cedric Benson
4. Braylon Edwards
5. Troy Williamson
6. Mike Williams
7. JJ Arrington
8. Mark Clayton
9. Matt Jones
10. Alex Smith
2006
1. Reggie Bush
2. Laurence Maroney
3. DeAngelo Williams
4. LenDale White
5. Joseph Addai
6. Matt Leinart
7. Vince Young
8. Vernon Davis
9. Chad Jackson
10. Jay Cutler
2007
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Marshawn Lynch
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Brandon Jackson
5. JaMarcus Russell
6. Michael Bush
7. Chris Henry (TEN)
8. Brady Quinn
9. Kenny Irons
10. Tony Hunt
2008
1. Darren McFadden
2. Jonathan Stewart
3. Rashard Mendenhall
4. Felix Jones
5. Matt Forte
6. Chris Johnson
7. Kevin Smith
8. Matt Ryan
9. Devin Thomas
10. Ray Rice
I took all those selections and cross-referenced them against keeper rankings from popular Web sites across the country. What I found was quite surprising.
Overall Average Keeper Status of a player taken in the top 10 of our drafts (2004-2008): 81.34
To give you an idea of what that looks like, here are some of the players commonly ranked in that area…
Felix Jones
Jay Cutler
Selvin Young
Eli Manning
Sidney Rice
Bernard Berrian
Javon Walker
Justin Fargas
Santana Moss
Donovan McNabb
Ahmad Bradshaw
Basically, that’s what we’ve been getting in quality on average in the first round of our Dynasty League draft. There are certainly always exceptions on the high and low end, but I expected this to be much higher, so I researched further.
Overall Average Keeper Status of a player taken in the top 5 of our drafts: 53.36
To give you an idea of what THAT looks like, here are some players commonly found in that area…
Lee Evans
Earnest Graham
Greg Jennings
Kevin Smith
Ben Roethlisberger
Kellen Winslow Jr.
Matt Forte
Willie Parker
Wes Welker
LenDale White
DeAngelo Williams
I fully expected an average top 5 selection to yield at least a top 40 keeper on average, especially when you factor in some very high keepers in the likes of Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, etc.
Overall Average Keeper Status of a player taken in the bottom 5 of our drafts: 105.36
These are guys in the range of Chris Cooley, Reggie Brown, Derrick Mason, etc. I certainly expected more from this group of first round selections. This number was actually quite astonishing to me. There have easily been as many busts as quality players taken in this area.
Here’s a breakdown by year:
2004 #1 Draft Picks
Average Dynasty Ranking among the entire group: 63.9
Selections 1-5 (Winslow, Manning, Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, K Jones)
Average Dynasty Ranking among the group: 57.4
Selections 6-10 (S Jackson, J Jones, T Bell, Roethlisberger, Reg Williams)
Average Dynasty Ranking among the group: 76.2
2005 #1 Draft Picks
Average Dynasty Ranking among the entire group: 107.6
Selections 1-5 (R Brown, C Williams, Benson, B Edwards, T Williamson)
Average Dynasty Ranking among the group: 77.2
Selections 6-10 (M Williams, Arrington, Ma Clayton, M Jones, A Smith)
Average Dynasty Ranking among the group: 140
2006 #1 Draft Picks
Average Dynasty Ranking among the entire group: 70.6
Selections 1-5 (Bush, Maroney, D Williams, White, Addai)
Average Dynasty Ranking among the group: 32
Selections 6-10 (Leinart, Young, V Davis, C Jackson, Cutler)
Average Dynasty Ranking among the group: 91.6
2007 #1 Draft Picks
Average Dynasty Ranking among the entire group: 95.4
Selections 1-5 (Peterson, Lynch, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Jackson, JaMarcus Russell)
Average Dynasty Ranking among the group: 58.8
Selections 6-10 (M Bush, C Henry, Quinn, Irons, Hunt)
Average Dynasty Ranking among the group: 126.7
2008 #1 Draft Picks
Average Dynasty Ranking among the entire group: 69.2
Selections 1-5 (McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, F Jones, Forte)
Average Dynasty Ranking among the group: 41.4
Selections 6-10 (K Smith, Ryan, D Thomas, Rice, Charles)
Average Dynasty Ranking among the group: 92.3
So, all in all, I was quite surprised to see the numbers I did. After five years of draft history from some very knowledgeable coaches, I feel it’s a worthy and accurate sample size. While your league’s draft history is certainly much different than this one’s, I highly recommend you do some research like this to maximize the value of the selections you have or are looking to acquire. Doing so will give you an accurate read on the “true” value of those selections. The truth is, for every Adrian Peterson or Steven Jackson, there’s a Mike Williams or Cedric Benson. This league has seen many second rounders or undrafted players (Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, Marques Colston) blossom for coaches who took a stab outside the first round. Fact of the matter is, there typically not worth as much as one would think.
If your research yields similar results to mine, I’d be jumping at moving a pick from #3 to #7 for any player in the top 30-40
keepers.
Ken Kelly
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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tanglewood
June 19, 2014 at 7:51 am
This is very helpful!
You guys should update it!!!!!!