Dynasty Spotlight - Matt Cassel
Posted: 4/5/09
Many things have changed this season. That change brings a requirement
for ongoing situational analysis. When a player moves from one team to
another, or loses many of his former teammates to free agency, their changing
value has to be constantly assessed. For example, Matt Cassel has been
traded from New England to Kansas City. While many owners are attempting
to posture themselves to acquire him via trade or through an initial dynasty
draft, I stand firm on my belief of his value. I believe he’ll be
a bust. Now, that may come as a surprise to some, but let’s take
a look at some factors that could contribute to my theory.
Let’s take a look at Cassel’s magical season statistically.
His ranking against other NFL QBs were as follows:
Completions – 327 (9th)
Attempts – 516 (9th)
Completion Percentage – 63.4% (11th)
Yards – 3,693 (8th)
Yards per attempt – 7.16 (15th)
TDs – 21 (10th)
Interceptions – 11 (14th)
Number of times sacked – 47 (32nd, or last)
There’s no doubting that Cassel had a great year, but there are
a few things that stand out on that list. First, the yards per attempt
against the number of completions show he had much more success with the
short to intermediate passes. Second, the sack total is enormous when
compared to the 21 sacks of Tom Brady the year before. Finally, the fact
that Cassel didn’t rank in the top 8 in any category with the weapons
at his disposal raises a red flag.
Now that Cassel has been shipped to Kansas City, I believe there are four
major factors that will go against his chances of becoming a solid #1
fantasy QB.
The Chiefs Offensive Line
It’s apparent with the sack total from last year that Cassel isn’t
the most gifted athletically. Tyler Thigpen was sacked 26 times in Kansas
City last year on 420 attempts. Thigpen’s yards per attempt last
year was also 6.21, 29th in the league. That’s even lower than Cassel’s
in New England and shows that even though both offenses attempted to get
the ball out of the QB’s hands quickly, both lines failed miserably
at allowing them to do so. The Chiefs offensive line hasn’t improved
dramatically from last year and their running game will be even worse
if Larry Johnson isn’t around. Regardless, Cassel won’t enjoy
any better protection than he received on a good New England team.
Game Situations
Cassel enjoyed playing with the lead a lot in New England. He had talent
around him that put him in a situation to be successful. The Patriots
were only blown out in 3 games last year, making his necessity to make
plays very limited. The Chiefs lost 8 games last year by 10 points or
more. Playing from behind forces a QB to make a lot more plays and that’s
going to prove to be very new (and quite possibly, very difficult) for
Cassel to do.
Surrounding Offensive Talent and System
There’s little doubt that Bill Belichick has installed an incredibly
successful offensive system in New England. It’s also quite comfortable
for a QB when you have talented players like Wes Welker and Randy Moss,
among others. Not to take anything away from Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne
Bowe, but their presence doesn’t hold a candle to that of the Patriots.
In addition, Todd Haley has a lot of work to do to get the Chiefs offense
running his system correctly. Sure, Kurt Warner had massive success in
Arizona with it, but he also had Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. When
your #2 WR is Mark Bradley, those numbers don’t just match up.
The Simple Eye Test
I remember watching the Thursday night game between New England and the
New York Jets where Cassel went 30-51 for 400 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs.
It was no doubt a great performance. However, I raised an eyebrow when
all the columnists the next day started talking and writing about how
Cassel had made himself so much money in the future in that loss. Anyone
who watched that game remembers how many times he misfired on deep passes.
There were at least 3 TD passes he had that were just plain missed. Fact
is, his touch on deep passes is a serious liability. He was able to mask
that a lot last season, but teams had relatively no tape on him. It’s
rare that a QB at the NFL level would have so little material to game
plan against. That won’t happen again.
In conclusion, Matt Cassel has a chance to be a franchise QB. He’ll
be given every opportunity to be successful this year and in the future.
However, I feel that with so many factors against him, his chance at success
is very limited. I could be very wrong on this and Cassel could put in
all the work to fix his own limitations.
However, with so many things out of his control (offensive talent, offensive
line, game situations), the cards are very much stacked against him. I
feel his value as a dynasty player should be viewed as “capable
#2 and spot starter,” not “franchise QB #1.” I see more
Elvis Grbac and Scott Mitchell than Steve Young. Draft and plan accordingly.
[
Discuss This Article in the Dynasty Discussion Forum! ]