2009 Rookie Draft - In Progress...
With the 2009 NFL draft in the books, that means that our primary Dynasty
league, consisting of 10 highly competitive coaches, formally begins.
Our league consists of 10 teams, 30 roster positions w/IDP and no PPR.
Thus, RBs tend to be a bit higher ranked than WRs. As soon as the first
pick in the NFL draft is taken, the coach with the first pick in our league
is free to choose at any point. We have no "clock" until much
later, but our draft has never lasted more than a few weeks from the first
pick in the NFL draft and the official clock has never been started.
As picks are made, I will post them here for all to see ... with team
names omitted to protect the innocent and the guilty. Note that this our
actual draft, this is not a mock nor a prediction.
Round 1
1.01 Knowshon Moreno RB DEN
1.02 Michael Crabtree WR SF
1.03 Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB ARI
1.04 Donald Brown, RB IND
1.05 Lesean McCoy RB PHI
1.06 Shonn Green RB NYJ
1.07 Mark Sanchez QB NYJ
1.08 Glenn Coffee RB SF
1.09 Hakeem Nicks WR NYG
1.10 Matt Stafford QB DET
In my estimation, this year's draft was as "in the books" through
the first 8 picks before it even began. However, as is usually the case,
a coach has to throw a wrench into the works (1.08). At the top of the
draft, there are no real surprises. Moreno is a consensus first pick and
this pick was heavily shopped. I, personally, wouldn't/couldn't give up
enough for the first pick because I am not a fan of Moreno situation in
Denver. Too much McDaniel influence coming from a the Patriot where they
use many roles and believe in limiting touches of their RBs in order to
maximize their ability within those roles. BUT ... Moreno is the best
RB that McDaniels has had to this point and could be an every down back.
Picks 1.02 through 1.07 are as expected. Crabtree could have gone anywhere
in the top 3 and the coahc the grabbed him pairs him with Calvin Johnson,
a nice tandem. Lets talk about 1.08. This, to most of us, was a real head-scratcher
but the coach that picks up Coffee at 1.08 is building for the future,
already has Jonathan Stewart and Matt Forte' and is trying to strike gold
by taking Gore's potential handcuff. Gore is not overly durable and Coffee
could get a chance. One ESPN analyst that I "chatted" with says
Coffee was his favorite day 2 RB prospect and loves his game. For the
rest of us, we think it was too much of a reach. If it pays off however,
he's a genius. The trade was acquired from yours truly in a larger deal
involving Chris Johnson and other picks/players.
At 1.09, Hakeem Nicks coming off the board was a bit of a surprise as
well, but that is the area where surprises normally start occurring. For
your data fix, here are a few interesting numbers. In our past league
drafts for WRs taken in the first 4 picks, the "hit rate" of
those selected WRs is 100% (producing an every week starter). When expanding
that a bit further ... for those WRs selected at pick 1.05 - 2.05 in our
fantasy draft, the hit rate was 6.66%. Surprisingly, the hit rate on 2.06
- 3.05 is almost 27%. In our drafts, the bigger names largely go before
the lesser names in better positions, showing that this strategy is an
error in judgment.
Round 2
2.01 Brian Robiskie WR CLE
2.02 Jerem y Maclin WR PHI
2.03 James Davis RB CLE
2.04 Gartrell Johnson RB SD
2.05 Andre Brown RB NYG
2.06 Percy Harvin WR MIN
2.07 Darius Heyward-Bey WR OAK
2.08 James Laurinaitis LB STL
2.09 Rey Maualuga LB CIN
2.10 Mohamed Massaquoi WR CLE
Surprises again beginning at 2.04 with Gartrell Johnson off the board.
The coach taking Johnson owns L.T. and is trying to get lucky. Johnson
isn't in the top 20 of any rankings that I have seen by scouts but does
have decent RB size at just over 5'10" and 219 lbs. However, he is
anything but fleet of foot, running a 4.75 in the 40. Andre Brown is a
nice player who fell further than expected but is a bit of a reach at
2.05. All that said, the same coach owned picks 2.03 through 2.05 and
needs RB depth badly. James Davis at 2.03 is a good risk/reward play but
CLE is certain to grab a 1st or 2nd round RB in 2010.
2.06 gets the value of the draft in my opinion, at least as far as talent
goes. Percy Harvin may live in Percy's World but he has talent that cannot
be ignored. Before trading away 1.08 myself, I would have chosen Harvin
over Stafford and this from someone who has had issues with his fantasy
players' character flaws. Laurinaitis at 2.08 is a relatively safe pick
but LBs out of the draft are a gamble, but I like the selection. Massaquoi
at 2.10 is a bit of a surprise but he's in a great situation and is a
great character individual.
Round 3
3.01 Josh Freeman QB TB
3.02 Kenny Britt WR TEN
3.03 Patrick Turner WR MIA
3.04 Pat White QB MIA
3.05 Brandon Pettigrew TE DET
3.06 Lawrence Timmons LB PIT
3.07 Juaquin Iglesias WR CHI
3.08 Aaron Curry LB SEA
3.09 Kerry Collins QB TEN
3.10 Brandon Tate WR NE
A little bit of a surprise that Freeman lasted to 3.01, especially after
Flacco's success last year, but QBs in our league tend to fall just a
bit. Britt at 3.02 is a big surprise but the TEN offense doesn't get a
lot of respect. I like Britt as much as Nicks and he will have every opportunity.
The first FA goes off the board at 3.06 with the choice of TImmons. With
Foote departing, Timmons will be a three down inside LB and could very
well be a very big producer. Iglesias at 3.07 is a nice pick with the
WR situation in CHI up in the air. Igleasias has a chance to earn the
#3 position outright and with only Bennett really to worry about he is
one to keep an eye on. Aaron Curry falling to 3.08 is a surprise as well
but currently filling a SLB, the talented LB won't get as many opportunities.
Round 4
4.01 Danny Ware RB NYG
4.02 Javon Ringer RB TEN
4.03 Kevin Burnett LB SD
4.04 Rashad Jennings RB JAX
4.05 Austin Collie WR IND
4.06 Justin Durant LB JAX
4.07 Ramses Barden WR NYG
4.08 Nate Washington WR TEN
4.09 Tavares Gooden LB BAL
One team passed leaving only nine selections in the round. No real surprises
other than perhaps Jennings falling to 4.04. He's older but talented.
The LB pick of Durant at 4.06 is a nice play now that Durant takes over
the Mike in JAX.
[ Discuss This Article in the NFL Draft & Prospects Forum! ]