Future Watch
Posted: 2/21/08
Future Watch: 2008 – RBs
The declarations are in and the 2008 class of RBs promises to be one of the deepest we’ve seen in many years. From a fantasy perspective, there are some intriguing prospects you should be watching as we get through the NFL Scouting combine and personal workouts prior to the NFL Draft. Here’s an updated look at the prospects and where their stock is currently:
1. Darren McFadden, Arkansas
Height: 6’2” Weight: 205
He’s a lock to be the first RB taken in rookie only drafts this Summer. His combination of speed, size and versatility have many scouts believing he’s the most talented player in the draft, not just the most talented RB. Adrian Peterson fell a little last year and RBs typically slide, but McFadden should be taken in the first 7 or 8 selections at worst. Possible landing spots for him would be Atlanta, Oakland, New York (Jets), or New England. Jerry Jones certainly loves him, but the thought of trading Marion Barber and two #1s to get him can’t be too palatable, even for Jones.
Outlook: Should be the #1 pick in rookie drafts
2. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon
Height: 5’11” Weight: 233
Stewart stays at #2 on our list, but Mendenhall is closing in. You could consider Stewart and Mendhall #2 and #2A and much will depend on where they land. Stewart has the size to be a workhorse back for a team, but hasn’t proven he can handle a load in a traditional offense as of yet. There’s no doubt that he has the talent to be taken in the first round, though. Look for him to go in the middle-to-late first round to a team like Arizona, Houston, or Seattle.
Outlook: A top-3 selection
3. Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
Height: 5’11 Weight: 225
Mendenhall’s stock rose throughout the college football season and many see him being taken as the 2nd RB overall behind McFadden. He was 6th in the nation with 1,681 yards this year and averaged 6.4 ypc, that’s 0.8 more than McFadden. However, the trouble with Mendenhall is going to be his body of work. He had never carried the ball more than 78 times before his Junior season and we just don’t know how durable he can be. There’s no doubting his talent, though. Seeing him run away from the USC secondary with future NFL players like Taylor Mays shows you something. He should go in the first round to a team like Arizona, Pittsburgh, Seattle, or Houston. He probably could have benefited from another year in school, but it could be your gain.
Outlook: A top-3 selection
4. Felix Jones, Arkansas
Height: 6’0” Weight: 203
Now the rankings get really interesting. After the “big three,” it’s a mish-mash of talented runners with question marks. Our list starts with Jones. He had 1,162 yards on just 133 carries. That’s incredible! How much did he benefit from sharing with McFadden? How many carries can he really handle? How will his speed translate to the NFL? Is he tough enough? See, lots of questions, but lots of talent. Jones should go in the late first or early second round of the draft.
Outlook: A first round selection
5. Jamaal Charles, Texas
Height: 6’1” Weight: 205
We have questions about his true height, but those should be answered soon enough. Charles took advantage of a huge Holiday Bowl (161 yards and 2 TDs) and declared early. His 1,619 yards and 6.3 yards per carry are impressive. What’s more impressive is that he did against good competition. Charles is the one back who probably would have benefited the most by returning to school. Another season of dominance could have vaulted him to the top of a RB class with OSU’s Chris “Beannie” Wells. As it stands, he should be taken in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Outlook: A late first round selection
6. Chris Johnson, East Carolina
Height: 5’11” Weight: 200
This kid is going to blow people away with his speed, as he will likely run a sub 4.3 at the combine. That’s not the issue with him. His level of competition is going to be. Playing at ECU isn’t going to be confused with playing at OU, Texas, or USC. He has proven to be consistent, but many will question if he can be more than a “lightning” type of back in a two-back system.
Outlook: A late first round to early second round selection
7. Ray Rice, Rutgers
Height: 5’9” Weight: 205
His height is going to be an issue, but many compare him with Maurice Jones-Drew. I think Rice is going to be the ultimate boom or bust RB in this year’s class. He has shown to be a true workhorse at the collegiate level and has the heart of a lion. Unfortunately, he has the size of a shroo. He has said to have been working very hard at impressing at the combine and he has as much to gain as anyone. Stay tuned.
Outlook: A late first round to early second round selection
8. Mike Hart, Michigan
Height: 5’9” Weight: 202
It’s hard to imagine this ranking at the beginning of the season. However, two things are abundantly clear with Hart. First, he has durability issues. Second, he has a ton of mileage already. You can’t help but wonder if his career will be relatively short after as much wear as he has had over the past few years.
Outlook: A second round selection
9. Kevin Smith, Central Florida
Height: 6’1 Weight: 213
Good speed. Good balance. Played big in big games. Had a high ypc. Almost took out Barry Sanders’ record. If Rice is the ultimate boom or bust, Smith is a close second.
Outlook: A second round selection
10. Steve Slaton, West Virginia
Height: 5’10” Weight: 196
We have a lot of questions about many of the RBs, but Slaton’s is a death sentence. Is he tough enough? That’s a truly awful place to be for Slaton in the eyes of NFL and fantasy GMs. He’ll likely be drafted in the middle of the draft to a team looking for a good 3rd down back. Could he ever be more? It’s hard to tell. The good thing for Slaton is that he couldn’t have really done anything else to help himself by staying in school. He is what he is.
Outlook: A second round selection
Other Notables
Matt Forte, Tulane
Height: 6’1” Weight: 225
Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech
Height: 6’1” Weight: 205
Justin Forsett, Cal
Height: 5’8 Weight: 196
Chauncey Washington, USC
Height: 5’11 Weight: 215
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