Do the Math!

Math. I hate it. I really do. I used to sit in my High School and College classes and think, “When am I ever going to use this?” My teachers used to feed me a line about it being useful if I was ever going to be an astronaut or a carpenter. They had never seen me attempt to build a box or fly, however. Ironically, I have found a use for math in my adult life. Math can be used as an incredibly valuable research and planning tool for fantasy football. This article shows you one way it can be used to diminish personal opinions and create a clear, strategic trading advantage.

At this point in the year, you should be evaluating your team and determining if you have a realistic chance at contending for this year’s Dynasty League Championship. This is the most important decision you may have all season, and it’s only summer. Take a good look at your team, the competition, and your schedule. Clearly define your goal for the year. If you can’t win, you’re rebuilding. I hate to tell you this, but you HAVE to or you will be stuck in the land of 8-8 for all eternity. Trust me, I’ve seen it happen.

Once that choice is made, you have to decide who to acquire or who to look to unload now or in the not too distant future (your league’s trading deadline). There are essentially three groups of players in a dynasty league:

1.) Players who have much more value THIS year than they do in the future

2.) Players whose value is essentially flat, in relation to dynasty value vs. re-draft league value

3.) Players who have much more value IN THE FUTURE than they do this upcoming season

So, I certainly had some good guesses as to who fit in each category, however, I wanted to back up my hypothesis. So, I used my friends known as the Slide Rule and the Calculator to come up with an unbiased formula. I took the “Dynasty Rankings” that I have compiled from a mix of fantasy football experts and sites across the globe, and compared them to the “Re-Draft” or “Yearly” rankings from the same people and sites. From that, it was very clear to define who does, in reality fit within each group. Here are some highlights, along with some advice on what to do with these players.

THE ONE YEAR WONDERS

These players have a significantly higher value this upcoming season in relation to their dynasty status. I’ll note just how much different in parentheses for each. This means one of two things, depending on what type of team you have.

Dynasty Contenders – Target these players via trade. You likely won’t have to give up nearly as much value for similar players of the same ability. Getting these players can ensure you maximize your team’s ability this season in your effort to win or repeat. There is one BIG caveat, though. You can’t, under any circumstances, trade what you consider to be core players or draft choices to acquire them. If you do, you’re simply looking at winning one single championship and not building towards a true dynasty.

Non-Dynasty Contenders – You must rid yourself of players like these if you’re not a contending team. While the value you can get for them may not be seen for a few years, these players have a chance of simply retiring off your roster or having little to no value with you getting nothing in return. That’s a really bad habit to get into, especially if you’re a non-contender. By shipping these players away, you can get some significant future value, while likely improving your draft status for next year.

Here’s the prime list (players with a redraft value at least 10 spots higher than their dynasty value), listed in order:

Edgerrin James RB ARI (-35)

It should be no surprise that Edge tops the list. He’s a great player to have in your lineup if you’re a contender, but a horrible anchor to you if you’re not. His value for next year is that of a 3rd rounder (#27), while his dynasty value is #62. He should have one or two more years of production, before being replaced by a younger RB. Personally, I do not think that player is Tim Hightower.

Joey Galloway WR TBB (-29)

Here’s another productive player you could get for a relatively low cost. He’s still a #1 WR on his team and has had three consecutive 1,000 yard seasons and 23 TDs the past three years. Old greybeard can still help your team if you’re a contender, and MUST be moved if you’re not.

Kevin Curtis WR PHI (-26)

Curtis had a very productive year in Philly last year, with career highs of 1,110 and 6 TDs. However, it’s pretty obvious that was by default since McNabb and Co. really didn’t have a true #1 WR. I expected that to change this year, but it hasn’t to date. Curtis is ranked in the 70s on the redraft board, but is outside the top 100 in dynasty lists.

Eli Manning QB NYG (-23)

What!?! He just won the Super Bowl!?! Well, he’s being vastly overrated by a lot of teams and sites out there. He has 77 TDs and 64 INTs over the past five seasons. Compare that to his brother Peyton who has 168 TDs and 53 INTs and you see the difference. While Manning is a really good QB2, he shouldn’t be kept to build your team around. As a contender, he’d be a super #2 to cover for an injury or bye week…and to keep from someone else.

Thomas Jones RB NYJ (-22)

Jones had a redraft ranking of a solid #41, but a dynasty ranking of a less than stellar #63. Jones should have at least one year of production left behind an improved offensive line. Yes, he was a big disappointment with just 1 TD last year, but I doubt Jesse Chatman takes much away from him. He should have one more 300 carry season before the wheels fall off.

Jamal Lewis RB CLE (-21)

Here’s a pretty significant player to think about. His yearly value is that of #20, meaning the second best player a new team in a yearly league would have. However, his dynasty value is all the way down at #41. He certainly had a renaissance year last year, but be cautious with him if you’re not in contention. By the team your team is ready to contend, he may be in the retirement home. On the other hand, here’s a guy to be had for a contender. If the price is right, he could pay serious dividends.

Earnest Graham RB TBB (-21)

If you plucked Graham off the wire last year, congratulations. He probably gave you a very nice return on your waiver wire investment. However, he’s not the 22-year stud you may think. Graham turns 29 in January and may not have the long-term value you may think, especially in a Gruden-led system where there really isn’t too much loyalty. The difference between #34 and #55 is significant. I don’t expect Cadillac out of the garage anytime soon and Pittman is gone, so he certainly should have every chance to succeed this season…it’s just unclear beyond that.

Terrell Owens (-20)

Here’s the single highest rated player in yearly league (#17) to have a difference of 20 slots or more regarding his dynasty ranking. Owens will turn 35 in December and don’t let the new contract fool you. If he acts up or starts to decline (see: Terry Glenn), the Cowboys won’t hesitate cutting ties with him. However, he certainly looks to have one or two more good seasons left in him. If you can turn a guy with a big upside into TO (or vice versa), I advise you to do it.

It’s interesting to note that not all the rankings are simply revolving around age. Many of these are best on expert opinions of long-term development or changing situations as well. Here are some more players on the list:

David Garrard (-22)
Dallas Clark (-22)
Tony Gonzalez (-18)
Donovan McNabb (-18)
Vince Young (-18)
Ahman Green (-17)
Fred Taylor (-16)
Selvin Young (-15)
Todd Heap (-15)
Ladell Betts (-14)
Torry Holt (-13)
Willie Parker (-13)
Aaron Rodgers (-13)
Jeremy Shockey (-12)
Vernon Davis (-11)
Alge Crumpler (-10)

It was also interesting to note that Ryan Grant (-9) barely missed the list.

WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET

These players have a relatively flat value when you compare their upcoming season in relation to their dynasty status. They have the best chance of being stable over a lengthy period. If you want to create a safe team, these are guys to get. Just remember, there’s a relatively low risk of short-term diminishment (barring injury), but the same low chance of significant improvement.

Dynasty Contenders and Non-Contenders – It’s going to be a difficult task to attempt to convince other teams that these players have either diminishing or rising values. This list is pretty self explanatory, so here it is:

LaDainian Tomlinson (-2)
Tom Brady (-2)
Steve Smith (-2)
TJ Houshmandzadeh (-2)
Drew Brees (-2)
Chris Cooley (-2)
Larry Johnson (-1)
Matt Hasselbeck (-1)
Ben Roethlisberger (EVEN)
Derek Anderson (EVEN) ...just note he was ranked at #84 on each list. Don’t overvalue him too much.
Adrian Peterson (+1)
Joseph Addai (+1)
Roddy White (+1)
Steven Jackson (+2)
Reggie Wayne (+2)
Braylon Edwards (+2)
Chad Johnson (+2)
Tony Romo (+2)
Roy Williams (+2)
Chester Taylor (+2)

THE DIAPER DANDIES

These players have a significantly higher value in relation to their dynasty status compared to this upcoming season. I’ll note just how much different in parentheses for each. This also means one of two things, depending on what type of team you have.

Dynasty Contenders – These could be pawns for you to move. Non-contending teams typically look for these types of players when they are in rebuilding mode. Sending these players away can ensure you maximize your team’s ability this season in your effort to win or repeat. There is the same BIG caveat, though. You can’t, under any circumstances, trade what you consider to be future core players or draft choices to acquire them. If you do, you’re simply looking at winning one single championship and not building towards a true dynasty.

Non-Dynasty Contenders – These are players you want if you’re not a contending team. These players typically aren’t helping the contenders and you could create a “win-win” situation by sending away a veteran (like one on our ONE YEAR WONDERS list) in exchange for some youth. While the value of these players may not be seen for a few years, you eliminate the chance of veterans simply retiring off your roster or having little to no value with you getting nothing in return. By acquiring players like these, you can get some significant future value, while likely improving your draft status for next year.

For the sake of stating the obvious, I’m going to leave the rookies off this least. Certainly players like Mendenhall, McFadden, Rice, etc. have a higher dynasty ceiling than a yearly rating. Here’s the prime list of non-rookies (veteran players with a dynasty value at least 10 spots higher than their yearly or redraft value), listed in order:

Sidney Rice WR MIN (+32)

He has uber-stud potential, it just may not be this upcoming year. He’s as significant to a buyer or seller as Edgerrin James is given his difference of +32. Now, that doesn’t mean that’s a trade comparison, but Rice needs to be looked at by a non-contender as a prime possibility for pickup. It may seem strange, but the dynasty rankings of those two (James #61, Rice #73) may be closer than you think. Rice probably won’t help a contender, but he could be a great trade piece one way or another.

Anthony Gonzalez WR IND (+26)

It looks like Marvin Harrison may have put his legal troubles behind him, but his knees are still a major question mark. Gonzalez would be a great target for a non-contender and great bait for a contender. He may help a little sooner than later, but his potential would demand a pretty good package. He’s a great stash for later on.

Calvin Johnson WR DET (+22)

To many, he was a disappointment. However, how many WRs other than Randy Moss put up monster numbers their first year. Add to that the back injury and the Lions stinkability and he didn’t produce as many thought he would. His potential is really unmatched, though. With Roy Williams still in the fold next year, his prospects are not that great. Take Williams away in 2009 and he could be a really good #1 WR weapon by his third season. He’s not going to really help a contender now, but he’s another great asset for a non-contender.

Bernard Berrian WR MIN (+20)

Notice a theme here? Nobody has too much faith in Tavaris Jackson, but a studly offensive line and RB will make every defense think of Minny WRs as second in order of importance. That bodes well for the future.

Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG (+16)

Bradshaw was the best RB the Giants had during their playoff run, but Jacobs looks to be getting that extension soon. Thing is, how long will Jacobs stay healthy? As long as Bradshaw keeps his nose clean, he has a chance for a nice career.

It’s interesting to note that not all these rankings are simply revolving around age either. Many of these players have major long-term potential based on changing situations or talent. Some is also based on sub-normal production last year, leading to undervalue this year by many coaches. Here are some more players on the list:

Chris Chambers (+22)
Jerious Norwood (+15)
Nate Burleson (+13)
Carson Palmer (+9)
Maurice Jones-Drew (+9)
Ronnie Brown (+9)
Anquan Boldin (+9)
Justin Fargas (+9)
Antonio Gates (+9)
Santonio Holmes (+8)
Marshawn Lynch (+7)

In closing, I hate math. I really do. However, doing research like this helps me in making sound decisions based on the long-term health of my team. If you look at your team and can’t clearly defined yourself as a contender or non-contender, you’re probably not doing a good enough job of creating a strategy. Pick a direction, then use math as your unbiased weapon.



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