2 - 2 - 1 = 3?
Posted: 9/5/09
In most formats, a majority of fantasy coaches believe that production
RBs largely rule the roost when it comes to building a competitive team.
Given that nearly all serious leagues have at least ten teams, it doesn’t take long for the well to run dry when the RB2 run begins. Even in most PPR leagues, RBs still have the ability to post significant FP totals if they are three down backs and, possibly, even if they aren’t every down backs but heavily involved in the passing game (see Reggie Bush).
In recent years, a growing trend has taken center stage as it relates to this coveted position, the dreaded RBBC (Running Back By Committee). Eclipsed only by IRS, RBBC is the second most feared and stress-inducing letter combination in the free world … at least in the fantasy football world.
Once mighty fantasy teams have seen reduced fantasy point totals at the hands of such RB tandems as Barber/Jones, Jacobs/Ward, Peterson/Taylor, Williams/Stewart, McAllister(Thomas)/Bush, Johnson/White, Jones-Drew/Taylor, Fargas/McFadden, Maroney/Faulk, Brown/Williams or even Lynch/Jackson … to name most, but not all. Note also that despite the dreaded RBBC, such names as Adrian Peterson, Deangelo Williams, Chris Johnson and Reggie Bush still have the potential to put up monster numbers, even if not as a three down back. The RBBC does not eliminate production and, in some cases, could even increase production because backs are more rested than they would otherwise be. And this is entirely the reason that select NFL coaches have migrated to this strategy … to rely on the strengths of the respective backs in key situations and ensure that those backs are rested for the opportunity when it arises.
For fantasy coaches, despite the numbers that may or may not be present, only headaches result. Do you avoid the RBBC at all costs? Do you over-draft by not only selecting the primary RB, but then drafting the hand-cuff prematurely so as to ensure you get both? Do you focus on only one of the two and pray for an injury? All of these strategies have their own merits. Rather than break down the obvious, I will leave it to each of you to determine within which category you fall and whether your strategy is a successful one. Here’s a hint however: Glance at your W-L record and adjust as needed.
Fast forward now to the present. In the last two years, especially that of 2008-09, a new, uglier, RBBC has emerged … the 2-2-1. In this system, the coach relies on three separate backs to carry the load of the running game. Typically, these 3 positions are: 1) Between the tackles RB 2) Receiving RB and 3) Tough yardage RB. Worse yet, it would seem that in most cases, the coaching staff prefers to have RBs that are able to, not only, specialize in their primary skill but also be somewhat adept in the other two areas as needed. Note that I did not label the third skill as “short” yardage, but instead as “tough” yardage. This is to expand on the pure goal line or short yardage need that most teams have. Often, this “tough” yardage back will be used on first or second down simply to grind out tough yards and shorten the distance to move the chains.
Thus far, now less than a week before kick-off of the 2009 season, multiple teams clearly have a three back rotation, some of which have already adopted the 2-2-1 methodology. Whether 2-2-1, or another recipe, the result to the fantasy coach is the same … a headache in most cases. Those teams with a clear 3+ back rotation are:
- Tampa Bay
- New England
- Baltimore
- NY Giants -
Those teams teetering on the edge of having a 3+ back rotation are:
- Dallas
- Green Bay
- Carolina
- Houston
- Oakland
- Pittsburgh
This article is no more than a piece to bring this emerging picture into clearer focus. Especially for you dynasty leaguers, this movement is something that one must keep an eye on and not fail to factor into your team build strategy.
For myself, I dislike having to burn valuable roster spots in order to secure a single position. As the ol’ football adage goes, if you have three, you probably don’t have one. This is not to say that it doesn’t have a place in the NFL because it clearly does. But for the fantasy game, where RB1 and RB2 can be a critical advantage on game day, 1/3 of a position is not a part of my strategy unless I am without other options.
But as the two-back RBBC has caught on in recent years, something tells
me that so, too, will the 2-2-1. Just one more variable in the equation
that the adept fantasy coach must keep in mind on draft and game day.
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