There are only days remaining until the special $14.99 annual subscription rate for our premium content expires. If you’ve been on the fence in regards to signing up, here’s what you’re missing so far:

Sleeper Spotlight: Arizona Cardinals - May 17, 2012

Which Arizona player do we believe represents the greatest “sleeper” value in 2012?

Dynasty Capsule: Arizona Cardinals - May 16, 2012
Our in-depth look at the dynasty value of players on every team, beginning with the Arizona Cardinals.

2012 Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Consensus Top 41-50 - May 13, 2012
We took a look at rookies 41-50 of our consensus top 50.

The NFL Draft: 100 Dynasty Winners and Losers - May 10, 2012
We decided to make a comprehensive list of winners and losers with extended commentary based on the results of the NFL Draft. How does 100 of them sound?

2012 NFL Draft Review: The DLF Writers - April 30, 2012
Sleepers and surprises – the DLF writers answered a myriad of questions in regards to the draft.

Complete 42 Player Rookie IDP Rankings with Commentary - April 30, 2012
An unparalleled in-depth look at this year’s rookie IDPs.

Rookie Draft Cheat Sheet Available NOW! - April 29, 2012
As promised, the initial downloadable version of the rookie draft cheat sheet was made available now for premium subscribers!

Exclusive NFL Draft LIVE Pick-by-Pick Analysis - April 26, 2012
Complete pick-by-pick analysis we provided during the NFL Draft.

Rookie Q&A w/NFL Draft Countdown’s Shane Hallam - April 24, 2012
We sat down with Draft Countdown’s Shane Hallam to gauge this year’s rookies, including a few names you may not recognize.

Complete 42 Round IDP Industry Dynasty Mock Draft with Strategic Analysis - April 23, 2012
A complete breakdown of a 42 round dynasty mock draft with IDP.

Extended Pre-Draft Rookie Q&A with Matt Waldman - April 20, 2012
An extended (4,000 word) interview with Matt Waldman sharing extended insight into this year’s rookie class.

2012 Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings with Extended Commentary - April 20, 2012
An 8,000 word final pre-draft ranking set with exclusive commentary.

2012 Pre-Draft Rookie Tiers - April 19, 2012
Our first look at the tiers for this year’s rookies.

Free Agency Winners - April 19, 2012
We take an exclusive look at this year’s free agency winners.

Third Year Wide Receiver Breakdown - April 19, 2012
We take a look back and a look ahead at the key third year wide receivers from 2011 and 2012.

Free Agency Losers - April 19, 2012
We took a look at some players who were clear losers based on the movement in free agency.

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To learn more about what this will include, just continue reading…

At DLF, we cater to the “die hard,” the “addict,” and the “professional” dynasty league owners. Our loyal followers and forums boast some of the greatest dynasty minds on the planet. Over the years a common theme from many of them has come through loud and clear.

“We want more!”

Last year, we listened and produced the wildly successful Dynasty Essentials Guide, the first ever paid content offered by DLF. This popular publication included all the following:

• Positional Rankings
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You can check out the 2011 Dynasty Essentials Guide for free to see the type of quality content we put into developing the industry’s best dedicated dynasty and keeper publication.

However, that guide as you knew it will not be offered this year as a one-time purchase.  In the end, we felt it was too difficult to keep the information in that guide relevant for more than a few weeks at a time since things change so fast. We wanted to do something even better this season, and for future seasons as well.

This year, we’re excited to announce we’ve truly taken it to the next level. We’re accepting subscriptions for a whole new version of DLF Premium Content. This will include all the information previously included in the Dynasty Essentials Guide on easy to read web pages (rolled out when it becomes most relevant, and easily updated when necessary), and that’s just one very small part of the subscription.  Included in the premium content package will be all the following:

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For those who aren’t interested in signing up, don’t worry! We have and will continue to offer tons of free content, and the existing DLF Forum will remain completely free. If you’re not quite ready to join the elite, the DLF site you’ve come to expect will stay very much the same.  The choice is yours!

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We’re excited to finally be able to fully support the two very different versions of DLF in the way our followers would come to expect. We have a LOT of things in store and look forward to many years of continually improving the single best resource for anyone involved in dynasty and keeper fantasy football leagues.

Thanks for your support!

As you know, I’m a list guy. I make “to do” lists, follow “honey do” lists, and will take time to read a top five or top ten list of almost anything. This series of articles will bring you a top five ranking about a myriad of topics in the world of dynasty fantasy football.

The dynasty value of a player is very dynamic and can be effected by anything from a surprise injury to an offensive lineman to a covered up assault at a night club. With the access to information available to the average fan specifically via Twitter, fantasy owners must be aware of the current value of their players and of the players they hope to acquire. Often, how an owner values a player can be different than how he would rank that player. For example, many owners and experts would rank Tom Brady, Michael Vick or even Peyton Manning in the top five, but during a startup draft or a trade discussions, the true value of players is discovered.

Here are the top 5 most valued quarterbacks in PPR dynasty leagues with 4 points per passing touchdown, according to the most up-to-date information and data. The ages listed are as of September 2012.

1.  ) Aaron Rodgers, QB GB (28.7 years old)

Based on the data I have seen, the Super Bowl MVP is in a tier of his own in dynasty leagues. Rodgers had a slow start to his career sitting behind Brett Favre, but he is more than making up for that now. His combination of talent, age and supporting cast (including Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley) put Rodgers at the top of the quarterback heap. With the record breaking passing numbers put up by many of the top quarterbacks in recent years, the position has seen a large increase in value, in relation to other positions. There was a time you could draft three or four running backs and wide receivers before grabbing that top stud passer in the fourth or fifth round. That time has ended. Top quarterbacks like the ones listed here are being consistently selected as early as the first round of dynasty drafts.

Current Startup ADP (average draft position): 4

Recent Trades:

Team A gave Aaron Rodgers
Team B gave Rookie pick 1.04, Rookie pick 1.07

Team A gave Aaron Rodgers
Team B gave Rookie pick 1.01, Matt Schaub

2.  ) Cam Newton, QB CAR (23.3 years old)

The rookie season enjoyed by Cam Newton came as a shock to almost everyone. Being an SEC fan and follower, I had high hopes for Newton’s professional career at this time one year ago. I distinctly remember watching Newton’s performance (or lack thereof) as a part of Jon Gruden’s Quarterback Camp series on ESPN. Newton had trouble identifying the plays that Auburn ran just weeks before. That was a red flag to me and many others. Fortunately for Cam and Carolina, talent prevailed and Newton thrust himself into the end zone and the first round of dynasty drafts.

Many expect Newton’s fantasy scoring to decrease as he is unlikely to consistently score  as many rushing touchdowns as he did in his initial campaign. While this is likely true, it is also a fair assumption that his passing accuracy will only improve with time, resulting in a greater number of passing yards and scores.

Current Startup ADP: 9

Recent Trades:

Team A gave Cam Newton
Team B gave Tony Romo, Hakeem Nicks

3.  ) Matthew Stafford, QB DET (24.5 years old)

Stafford finally rewarded dynasty owners who had stashed him on their bench during his first two injury riddled seasons, throwing for 41 touchdowns and finishing as the QB5. Like Newton’s rushing ability, Stafford has that something special that sets him apart from all other quarterbacks in the league – wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Stafford’s huge arm and Johnson’s ability to go get nearly any ball result in a dynamic duo that any dynasty (or NFL) owner would love to have.

The injury questions still remain though, and likely will for Stafford’s entire career. Stafford is a borderline first rounder in startup drafts, and has recently been the third quarterback off the board behind Rodgers and Newton. His age is what gives him the nod over the following passers in this list and the majority of dynasty leagues.

Current Startup ADP: 12.5

Recent Trades:

Team A gave Matthew Stafford
Team B gave Rookie pick 1.03, Joe Flacco

Team A gave Matthew Stafford, Rookie pick 3.05
Team B gave Sam Bradford, Rookie pick 1.08, Rookie pick 1.09

4.  ) Drew Brees, QB NO (33.6 years old)

With the Saints organization going through tough times, Brees remains the constant. For eight consecutive seasons, he has finished as a top ten quarterback – four of those seasons as either the QB1 or QB2.

Fantasy players can expect Brees to continue that same excellent play, despite the distractions in New Orleans, but we cannot ignore the fact the Brees will be over 33 by the beginning of the 2013 season and lost his biggest touchdown threat of the past three years in Robert Meachem. I would not be comfortable building my team around Brees with these factors considered.

Current Startup ADP: 13

Recent Trades:

Team A gave Drew Brees
Team B gave Matt Ryan, Rookie pick 1.10, 2013 2nd round rookie pick

Team A gave Drew Brees
Team B gave Sam Bradford, Rookie pick 2.01

5.  ) Tom Brady, QB NE (34.9 years old)

The Patriots leader is also a model of consistency for his fantasy owners. Other than the 2008 season which ended with a week one knee injury, Brady has finished in the top 11 every year since 2002. That includes four seasons as the QB1, QB2 or QB3.

Brady now utilizes his playmaking tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, along with wide receiver Wes Welker. Much like Brees, the Brady show can’t go on forever. If your team is built to win now, Brady is a great player for your team, otherwise, he is not the best option.

Current Startup ADP: 25.7

Recent Trades:

Team A gave Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Danny Ware
Team B gave Jay Cutler, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Rookie picks 2.03, 2.04, 2.09, 2.10, 2013 1st round rookie pick

Just missed: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III,

In next week’s Making a List, I’ll focus on the current value of tight ends.

Follow Ryan McDowell on Twitter @RyanMc23

We’ve all seen the perfect rosters posted on forums that look like they’re from a four team league, but realistically you won’t be able to fill every roster slot with stars. If you can, that’s great, but there was likely either a lot of luck involved or you may want to look for a more competitive league.

What you can do is mine for talent, either in the deeper rounds of your startup draft or by making cheap trades to build the end of your roster. Every roster spot on your dynasty team serves a purpose, whether it’s a prospect you expect to start for you within two years (Greg Little comes to mind) or a solid bye week filler (Malcom Floyd). Understanding this and putting it to good use goes a long way to making you a competitor. Instead of holding Rex Grossman or Brian Robiskie, look for ways to maximize those roster spots. This article is meant to outline a few strategies that can be used to solidify the depth on your roster.

1.) Don’t Overspend on your QB2

Let me say right off the bat these are things I do and aren’t necessarily right or wrong. In a fantasy sense, I’m typically one of the cheapest people in my leagues, and when it comes to QB2, I’m not willing to overpay for a guy I hope will only see the field once a year when my QB1 is on bye.

Sure, because I’m so cheap, I currently have six leagues where I don’t have a QB2, but I have all offseason to find a decent deal to back up my starter. Because of supply and demand, I should be able to find a cheap quarterback by the end of this summer. After all, whoever I acquire him from won’t have any need for him because they probably have 3-4 starting quarterbacks on their roster.

If I was drafting an ideal roster for myself, I would draft an elite quarterback. I’m cheap, so it probably wouldn’t be Aaron Rodgers, but more like someone a few slots below like Matt Stafford. I’d back him up with a cheap QB2 who I like, and have a third developing quarterback waiting in the wings. I’d love for the third quarterback to be a young projected starter such as Christian Ponder or Ryan Tannehill, but if that’s too expensive, I’m fine with someone like Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer.

Here’s an example of a trade I made to acquire what I see as a nice QB2:

Gave: 2013 2^nd, 2013 3^rd
Received: Carson Palmer, QB OAK

Ryan Fitzpatrick and Palmer are a couple of my favorite players as QB2’s. Both may be acquired for a second round pick, but are capable of putting up QB1 numbers. I actually won a championship last year in one league with Fitzpatrick as my starting quarterback, so you never know.

Carson Palmer isn’t going to blow anyone away, but after a full offseason of practice he’ll put up decent numbers and has nice job security, plus he’s often a cheap buy.

While Fitzpatrick has slumped in the second half of the season for two years in a row, it is swept under the rug that he put up QB1 numbers for the first half of those seasons and reportedly played with four cracked ribs that he suffered in Week Eight of 2011. He’s capable of putting up good numbers as long as he is in Chan Gailey’s system and his big contract ensures he’ll stick around in Buffalo.

The advantage of buying a cheap QB2 is that you keep more of your assets (picks and players), but still get the benefit of having decent depth at quarterback. Palmer and Fitzpatrick aren’t exactly sexy players to own, but they provide security behind your starter and are easier to acquire than a more highly regarded quarterback that others may roster as a QB2 such as Jay Cutler.

2.) Emphasize Depth and Upside at WR

I play in mostly deeper leagues so this may not be as true for smaller leagues, but it is much easier to find wide receiver talent either through the end of your start up draft or on the waiver wire. Only one or possibly two running backs per NFL team are usually valuable in fantasy, but it is not out of the ordinary to have three wide receivers on an NFL team who can start for a team depending on injuries and situation.

Unless I am rebuilding, I’m not one to throw running backs at the wall until one hits. I do feel that way about receivers, though. Behind my starters at receiver, I want the following mix of receivers:

1.) Ones who aren’t quite starter quality, but may post a 100-yard game on occasion.

2.) Ones who may offer little long-term upside, but can cover my byes

3.) Ones who may or may not produce, but are in a situation that presents an opportunity in which they may develop into a future starter.

This strategy is most easily accomplished by following it throughout the startup draft. Even if you follow the strategy of going running back early, once you are set with a solid running back stable, turn your attention to drafting a deep set of wide receivers. If you find the right mix of running backs (six or seven running backs should be plenty), you can focus on drafting a well-rounded wide receiver corps.

Here are a few guys I would consider great depth to have when building your wide receivers:

Pierre Garcon, WR WAS

I know he’s drafted fairly early in startups, but there are some people who will sell him for pennies even now. I wouldn’t pay much for him since we’re talking about him as depth, but if you find an owner looking to unload him, pounce.

Titus Young, WR DET

According to PFF’s early dynasty ADP, he is coming in at WR39. Young is in a perfect situation to put up good numbers, and should come on strong after a full offseason. WR39 is a small price to pay for his potential. Young’s ADP may fall even further after the Lions drafted Ryan Broyles, but I don’t expect Broyles to hurt Young’s value.

Brandon LaFell, WR CAR

Carolina drafted a wide receiver in Joe Adams. His value takes a hit, but he still remains a big bodied receiver who has shown nice potential. LaFell can be drafted late or added via trade for a mid-round draft pick and offers much greater upside than players drafted around his ADP.

Malcom Floyd, WR SD

Floyd is one of those veterans I was talking about who can put up a good game from time to time. You can count on him missing a few games, but when your starting wide receiver’s bye week comes around, hopefully he will be there to help you out.

Nate Burleson, WR DET

Burleson represents more veteran depth that can fill in for you if you’re in a bind. The best thing to do would be to pair Young and Burleson together. Young will be a better player to have in the future, but for 2012, Burleson may be the guy who helps get you through the bye weeks. Burleson’s role may be muddied by the Lions’ pick of Ryan Broyles and Young’s continued emergence, but he may still be a nice bye-week filler in 2012. That status is up in the air for now, but if you can get him for cheap he may get you out of a bind.

3.) Push Draft Picks Into the Future

If you’re like me, you never quite know what to do with those mid-second round picks in rookie drafts. It’s usually a toss-up between players there, and that range is a nice place to go get “your guys,” but it’s like throwing darts, even if you have a good feeling about a player. If you’re on the clock and not sure what to do, shop your pick around for a future first.

Don’t get me wrong, you can land a great player in that second round range, but a first round pick will give you a better chance. I landed Cam Newton in one league last year in the mid-second, but I wouldn’t count on that happening very often. If you want to turn those seconds into firsts, look around your league and find a team that doesn’t quite have the promising outlook that I’m sure yours does. One way to find your targets is to find about four teams you expect to have a hard time making the playoffs in the upcoming season. Look at their starting lineups as well as their depth.

Find your target teams and start out by offering your current year’s second for their next year’s first and a later round pick this year. Even if you end up selecting a team that makes the playoffs, the difference between 2.5 and 1.9 or another late first will usually come out in your favor. Even if you end up only gaining a few spots and have given up a year of production from your second round pick, the chances of that second becoming worth anything of value are much less than hitting on a first round pick, so all is not lost.

Editor’s Note: Chase Wheetley can be found on Twitter @Chase_Wheetley.

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  My salary cap league has a sliding scale for rookie contract amounts.  Each pick is a little cheaper than the last.  In this draft do you feel that paying the premium for the earlier picks is worth it or better to save some money with a later selection? – Nathan in the Great White North

While that’s not an uncommon salary cap rule, it’s hard for me to answer your question without a lot more information.  In general, here are some things I’d consider:

• Regardless of the salary scale, Trent Richardson is worth every penny.
• For salary cap, T.Rich is in a tier by himself.  The next five guys are all fair game for me.  That’s Luck, RGIII, Blackmon, Floyd and Martin.  People will have personal preferences and differing team needs but I like them all more of less the same.  I do have Martin as the first among equals however.  So, if you want to game the system and trade down in this range to save some money, be my guest.  Just don’t trade below 1.06.
• After the top six, your guess is as good as mine.  I haven’t seen any consensus in this range and players go 1.07 in one draft and 2.02 in another.  That tells me you can absolutely trade down for value here as well.  The one exception is David Wilson.  He seems to have carved out a bit of his own tier right after the elite guys.  Although not always, he seems to go 1.07 fairly frequently.

My word of caution would be not to be penny wise and pound-foolish.  If there’s a guy you like or even just have a gut feeling about, take him.  A couple of spare cap dollars never won a salary cap league championship.

2.)  I’m in the third year of my dynasty league; I got frustrated and blew up my roster.  All I have left is Bradford, Welker and Gresham (we roster 23).  But I have the 1.01 through 1.05, the 1.07, 1.08, the 1.11, 1.12 and the 2.01.  Also, I have an offer on Welker for Dez.  What would you do? – Jason in Indy 

You sure did blow it up! The good news is you have a slew of picks in a very juicy rookie draft.  Let’s make the most of them.

I’d use all of the top five in this situation.  My picks would be Richardson, Martin, Luck, Floyd and Blackmon.  Please don’t fall victim to the RG3 temptation.  The only circumstance where I have RG3 close to Luck is in salary cap.  You aren’t going to contend in 2012 anyway, so take the long-term promise of Luck.

I’d try to move out of all the rest of the picks for young veterans.  My guess is that people in your league will be chomping at the bit to participate in the draft and that works in your favor.  I’d target guys such as CJ Spiller, Jonathan Stewart, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, and Brandon Marshall.  None of these guys carries the super elite prices of an AJ Green or Jimmy Graham, but they will be safe components of your team as it matures.

If you can’t move out of one of the later firsts, I’d consider taking Coby Fleener.  I’m struggling to figure out any reason that this guy won’t be successful in the NFL.  I don’t feel that he has elite talent, but I have his floor as about the TE8 in 2013 and beyond.  He’d be nice to pair up with Gresham.

As to the Welker for Dez deal, yes I’d take it.  I have Welker and Dez back to back in my rankings and given your unique situation age is a huge factor.

3.)  Matt Schaub is my QB.  I’ve been offered the 1.02 for Fitz/1.12.  Is it worth it given I’ll be able to pick Luck?  – Jeff in Louisville, KY

No!  If anyone should be adding picks to the deal it’s the guy giving you the 1.02.  Larry Fitzgerald is a borderline first round selection in start-up drafts.  I don’t care how badly you need a quarterback – this isn’t the way to get it.

Anyone that you take at 1.02 (be it Luck or RG3 or even Richardon) needs to prove that they are fit to carry Fitz’s pads.  You would be trading away one of the elite players in fantasy (and the NFL) for an unproven rookie.  I don’t care how good these guys look, rookies bust.  While I don’t think any of those three will, you shouldn’t have to pay like this for the honor of taking on that risk.

Separately, you have good reason to be concerned about Schaub.  He worries me too.  Those middle foot injuries are notoriously hard to shake.  I’d wait until the 1.12 is OTC and see what sort of deal you can cut for a mid-level QB like Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers or Tony Romo.  Play the committee game with these guys for a bit.  You should be able to get one of them cheaper than what you’ve been offered and they probably out perform Luck in 2012 anyway.

4.)  I dealt the 1.01 rookie selection for Dez Bryant and a 2013 first that will be middle of the pack.  How’d I do?  – Kevin in Colorado

Any other year this would be a slam-dunk in your favor, but with Trent Richardson on the board it’s murky.  I have no doubt that Richardson’s ADP in start-ups will be at least a round higher than Dez Bryant’s.  The question then becomes whether you feel the 2013 first makes up that gap.  It wouldn’t for me.

First, Dez isn’t a legitimate WR1 in either fantasy or the NFL.  He’s a high end WR2 and an every week starter, but he’s not elite.  Dez is not in my top 15.  I’ll take guys like Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin over Dez.  I know that I’m in the minority on this however.

Second, any capable RB1 is worth far more than a low end WR1.  If Richardson struggles, I see his floor, in terms of value, as being similar to Ryan Mathews.  Richardson is the only game in town in Cleveland and he will get every chance to succeed.  Debate his skills if you want, but the opportunity is supreme.  And of course not that many people are debating his skills anyway.

Finally, except in extremely rare cases, I don’t buy in to trying to predict where future picks will fall.  You say it’s “middle of the pack,” but that doesn’t factor in for me.  Right now a 2013 first is a 2013 first.  Those are being traded in my league right now for 2012 seconds as people want to get back in to the draft.  Not enough for me to give up a shot at an elite RB who I also believe has a high floor.

5.)  I have the 1.05 rookie selection and I’m not sold on Blackmon.  I like Martin but I doubt he drops to me.  Should I trade out of the pick in favor of a couple of 2013 selections?  – Adam in Minnesota

I think that would be a mistake unless you are getting at least two 2013 first round selections.  And even then I’m not sure.

You shouldn’t trade out of the pick at all.  If you don’t have pressing needs (which you must not if you are contemplating a picks only trade), I’d take BPA in this draft.  The top six selections in the 2012 draft (Luck/RG3, Richardson/Martin and Blackmon/Floyd) would all rate as top three picks in most rookie drafts.  If you were outside of the top six, I’d be okay with punting until 2013.  Team needs change and you may not get a chance to get an elite level prospect like this by trading.

If I can’t dissuade you from trading out of the pick, at least trade for a proven veteran.  Someone in your league will want the 1.05 I promise.  Wait until it is OTC and then put it on the block.  You may be pleasantly surprised by the level of offer you receive.

The 2012 class is strong, but got hurt a bit by the results of the NFL draft.  That doesn’t change the quality of the talent.  Remember Megatron went to the Lions, AJ Green to the Bengals with a rookie quarterback, and Fitzgerald to the Cards when they absolutely stunk.  Don’t count Blackmon or Floyd out because of their situations.  You’re selling them short.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

We live in a hyper-connected world in which people stream their weddings to the Internet, share their location constantly via their mobile phones and, ultimately, can bring total strangers together from all around the world, for many years at a time, to play fantasy football. With the flick of my finger I can send a message to someone on the other side of the planet. Today is a great time to be alive!

While we have this capability, we don’t always use it, or even foster it, in many leagues. Communication and interaction between owners is paramount in any successful dynasty league. The more engaged owners are, the more vibrant and enduring a league will be. Owners are able to develop relationships and can better understand what makes everyone “tick.”

With communication being so important and the vast number of tools available to dynasty leagues, it’s downright criminal, and extremely lazy, if league commissioners aren’t working to connect the owners in their leagues!  If you are one of those commissioners I’m talking about, get on the ball and get your league connected with the following resources:

Twitter (www.twitter.com)

If not for Twitter, many of those involved with DLF wouldn’t even know one another. Twitter allows for connection with a vast number of fantasy football experts, as well as current and potentially future league mates. Individual messages are limited to 140 characters, but this is rarely very limiting. The ability to create lists of users allows for a great way to organize those you follow into logical collections.

Many fantasy football trades are conducted over this service as well. Countless desktop and mobile clients exist for this service, so you aren’t tied to any one location or client. Additionally, Twitter, due to its huge popularity, has a massive amount of third party supporting sites that allow you to do things easier, faster or differently than twitter.com does.  While you’re there give all the DLF staff a follow at the names listed in the footer of this page. We encourage you to chat with us any time you’d like.

Facebook (www.facebook.com)

I’d be remiss without adding the single largest social network on this list. While not designed specifically for close communication between small groups, it is the single most likely website where you’ll find all of your leaguemates. Personally, I’m opposed to the site, but I do acknowledge its usefulness.

One interesting feature a league could try out is the timeline feature. This feature could track wins and losses, important trades and league championships. There’s not much to say here that hasn’t been said a million times about this site. If you don’t know more than I could write about Facebook then you’ve been living under a rock or in a nuclear bunker for the past three to five years.

Google+ (plus.google.com)

If Facebook is a shotgun, then Google+ is a sniper rifle. One takes a broad approach to connecting users, the other is laser focused in its attempt to do the same. Google+ has a much smaller user base, but works on fostering group interaction – perfect for a small group of people like a dynasty fantasy football league. The circle concept Google has developed keeps interactions between the group private and only viewable by those associated with the group.

Google Documents (docs.google.com)

This collection of applications by Google is meant to compete with the Microsoft Office suite of products. The usefulness here for a dynasty fantasy football league is that the documents produced or edited by group members are viewable and editable to everyone else in that group. We here at DLF use this suite of products to help run the site you’re reading this article on. This suite of products is perfect for keeping league rules on, tracking salaries and contract years and any calculation spreadsheets developed by or associated with a dynasty league. If it’s good enough for your friends at DLF then why not give it a try!

Voxer (www.voxer.com)

Here is where we start to get to the more niche applications. While not widely known, Voxer is perfect for bringing a dynasty fantasy football league closer together. Voxer allows push to talk communication between two or more users. In Voxer you can have a conversation between your opponent for the week or send a voice message out to the league as a whole. It’s a great way to stay in touch during the off-season, send out trade offers or trash talk during the season. I actually require all owners in the league that I am commissioner of to install the application on their smartphones. Voxer is an amazing tool to bring everyone in a dynasty league closer together and should be an essential companion to your league website.

WhatsApp Messenger (www.whatsapp.com)

Similar in nature to Voxer, this application allows for sending pictures, video or voice messages to groups. If your entire dynasty fantasy football league is on this application, you can essentially have a mobile chat room in which everyone is notified of updates to the on-going chat. This application is what I prefer for chat rooms within a league, but I prefer Voxer for the push to talk features. The downside on WhatsApp Messenger is it is not free, while only .99 cents; you’re bound to hear some gripes if you require league members to buy a paid application.

Voice Broadcast (www.ifbyphone.com)

This application is designed to be used for marketing purposes, but I find this helps with the sanity of being a commissioner. By downloading and signing up for the free account on the website, you can send short burst voice messages that ring the phones of those you select. An excellent use for this is to send reminders out to your league on Thursdays that a game will be played that night and to set their lineups, notify league members of the start of a draft or to notify the league of any important issues, polls, dates or deadlines. I would urge any commissioner who uses this application to use it sparingly as overuse will annoy or anger league members if you use it for every small thing about the league. It is very useful, however, for important information that requires immediate attention.

With very little effort and some desire to keep a dynasty league whole and interacting, a savvy commissioner can transform their league from a desperate group of individuals into a close-knit group of friends with little to no turnover for long periods of time.

A league that binds itself together can expect games and seasons which are much more fun and rewarding for all those involved. Using just a couple of the applications I’ve outlined will make a huge difference in how you interact with all of your league members and will transform your fantasy football season from a few months a year to a multi-year, around the calendar experience.

Have fun out there!

This is Part IV in a series examining a full-scale mock dynasty league draft hosted by your gracious hosts here at DLF.  Part I examining Rounds 1 and 2, which details the participants and scoring, can be found here and Part II examining Rounds 3 and 4 can be found here.  Part III examining the first eight rounds of certain teams can be found here. You can see the whole draft report here and the team rosters here as well.

Now that the 2012 NFL Draft is in the books, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at where the rookie picks were selected in the DLF Mock which took place approximately two months before the NFL Draft to see where the picks were taken in relation to where the players that might be considered with those picks are likely to go in startup drafts.  Of course, this will obviously be affected by an individual’s own rookie rankings.  For purposes of this article, I’ll use mine, which I break up into tiers (I know it has 13 players, but I’m not limiting my last tier).  This year, my first round picks are tentatively in five tiers.  I’ll stay within my tiers when my pick comes up, but will pick among the players in the tier based on team need and ability to take risks, i.e. Griffin vs. Luck.

Tier 1

1          Trent Richardson, RB CLE

Tier 2

2.         Doug Martin, RB TB
3.         Robert Griffin III, QB WAS
4.         Andrew Luck, QB IND

Tier 3

5.         Michael Floyd, WR ARI
6.         Justin Blackmon, WR JAX
7.         Kendall Wright, WR TEN 

Tier 4

8.         Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
9.         Stephen Hill, WR NYJ

Tier 5

10.       David Wilson, RB NYG
11.       Ronnie Hillman, RB DEN
12.       Rueben Randle, WR NYG
13.       Isaiah Pead, RB STL

Tier 1: Rookie Pick 1.01

I think that getting this pick at 2.09 represented a pretty good value.  I would expect Trent Richardson to go off the board no later than the early second at this point.  In fact, in one dynasty startup draft I’m currently involved in, he went at pick 1.03, before LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice.  While that is extreme, you are going to see his draft position fluctuate between the mid-first and early second.  With the Browns declaring him as a three-down back, and those kind of players in short supply, he is going to carry extremely high value in terms of both potential touches and potential production.

Tier 2: Rookie Picks 1.02, 1.03 and 1.04

While I thought these picks were good values during the draft, in retrospect, I now think these picks actually went just a little bit too high.  I have Doug Martin as the RB17, and Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck as QB6 and QB7 right now.  I think for the most part, you can and will be able to get those players in that range, depending on how your draft falls (the late 4th or 5th).  Of these values, I like the 1.04 the best.

As a side note, if you are doing a startup in a 12 team league (where QB is at less of a premium than in 14 or 16 team leagues), you are really going to have to pay attention to what your leaguemates think about the importance of the quarterback position.  If you are in a draft where Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Matt Stafford all go in the first, you may have to make a play for Griffin or Luck earlier than you otherwise would.  If only Rodgers goes in the first and Cam and Stafford make it into the second, you should be safe waiting until at least the fifth round to make your move.

Martin just ended up in the perfect situation.  When a running back who draws comparisons to Ray Rice ends up going to a RB-needy team coached by ex-Rutgers Head Coach Greg Schiano, you can’t really ask for more.  I expect Martin to start the season as the third down back with some work on early downs.  By the end of the season, I would not be surprised if he has relegated LeGarrette Blount to short-yardage duties.

Tier 3: Rookie Picks 1.05, 1.06 and 1.07

I dropped Blackmon into Tier 3 based on his lack of top-end speed that will likely prevent him from entering WR1 territory.  When I perceive a player’s ceiling as high-end WR2 territory, I can’t put him in my top two tiers – his situation caused me to push him down below Michael Floyd.

I like Floyd and he’s got a great guy to learn from in Larry Fitzgerald.  If he can learn to be more fluid in his route running, he will have a good shot to go down as the best receiver in this draft.  I don’t have any of the receivers in this draft on my Top 20 dynasty receiver list, which is why they are relegated to the third tier.  This makes Rookie Pick 1.05 a decent value in the early sixth round. On the other hand, 1.06 and 1.07 were extremely good values at the 8/9 turn when receivers like Mario Manningham, Laurent Robinson and Leonard Hankerson were at or around the top of the available receiver list.

This is true with respect to Kendall Wright as well.  I think he’ll go much higher than 9.01 in startup drafts.  He arguably landed in the best situation of these three receivers, and should be an important cog in what is looking like a high octane Tennessee offense.

Tier 4:  Rookie Picks 1.08 and 1.09

I’ve seen people comment both ways on Alshon Jeffery, but I really like his landing spot.  With Brandon Marshall in town, he’s not going to be asked to carry the load and should see mostly single coverage.  Whatever his negatives are, no one can deny he can locate and go get the ball, and Jay Cutler has the strong arm and gunslinger mentality to throw it up to him.  Admittedly, he is a risky, low floor player, which is why I have him in Tier 4, but he has huge upside.

Stephen Hill would be higher if he had landed in a better situation.  He’s in a run-heavy offense that doesn’t get the ball downfield that often, and it’s not likely he’s found a good mentor in Santonio Holmes.  He is extremely raw, and I don’t believe that the Jets are a good team for his development.

Again, these picks represented great value in the late ninth round.  I doubt these two players will still be around in this area in startup drafts going forward.

Tier 5: Rookie Picks 1.10, 1.11 and 1.12

The value of these picks were also tremendous.  I highly doubt any of these players make it into the tenth round of many, if any startup drafts.

I know I have David Wilson lower than most, but I don’t see the upside with him as much as others.  He is going to be in an undeniable timeshare for the foreseeable future, and I don’t really see the Giants transitioning from using multiple backs anytime soon.  If he corrects his fumbling issues, he will have RB2 upside, but I’m not sure he will ever get the workload necessary to elevate him to RB1 status.  This, coupled with the generally shorter shelf life of running backs compared to wide receivers, relegates Wilson to the top of Tier 5.

Ronnie Hilliman, however, is raw, but has the ability to mature and turn into a three-down back.  He is in a great scenario where he can play behind Willis McGahee this year and learn from both Willis and Peyton Manning.  He has a great chance to turn into a solid RB1 in the near future.

Reuben Randle is more of a developmental pick.  He’ll have an opportunity to take it slow behind Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, but the effect of playing behind those two will limit the available targets.  He has a good skill set and can go up and get a ball, but needs to work on his route running.  I feel like his upside for the foreseeable future is capped as a WR3, regardless of how wide open the Giants offense has become.

Isaiah Pead is someone I moved up into Tier 5 based on his situation.  He has a real chance to be the heir apparent to Steven Jackson, and has the talent to at least develop into the third-down back in St. Louis.

Final Impressions:

I think the main point to be derived is that if you are in a startup draft that occurs before the NFL Draft and allows you to draft rookie picks, there is great value in drafting the rookie picks that fall towards the end of the first round.  Essentially, you are getting the benefit of reduced value based on uncertainty.  Once we have some more post-draft dynasty startup ADP information, it will certainly be interesting to see where the ADP of these players (or whoever your top rookies are) falls compared to these early pre-draft results.

Please feel free to hit me up on Twitter or below with any questions or comments.  Follow me on Twitter.

“Yuuuupppp!!”

In this, the first article of the series, we’ll examine Storage Wars. This show revolves around several cast members viewing abandoned storage lockers without being able to enter them and interact with the contents inside. They then bid against each other in an effort to win the mysterious contents of the locker.

If there is a more perfect analogy to dynasty auctions drafts than this, I can’t think of it. In these drafts, owners bid against each other on players they’ve gotten a good look at in the past, but aren’t completely sure what they are getting into if they’re the winning bid. Just like the show, you’ve got basically four kinds of bidders:

1.) Very aggressive bidders

2.) The antagonists

3.) The value player bidders

4.) Conservative bidders

How these bidders interact with each other on the show can provide us with a great tool for identifying what type of bidders we’re bidding against in our dynasty auction drafts, as well as successful tactics for dealing with each of these types of individuals.

Let’s start with the first kind of bidder – the very aggressive bidder. On Storage Wars, the cast member who fits this mold is named David Hester. Hester is basically the villain of the show. Very cocky and verbose, he tries to bulldoze the other bidders with his bankroll. Hester constantly tries to make shows of power and intimidate other bidders by quickly driving up the price of units he is interested in. If you’ve ever been in a dynasty auction you know the type – this is the owner who bids up studs to levels that don’t make logical sense to anyone other than themselves. These bidders tend to anger those around them by doing this with one or two select players at every position. Usually by the end of the first or second session, these owners are completely tapped out on cap space and aren’t a factor until the very last rounds when they compile the rest of their team.

While a team using this strategy has one or two studs at every position, the rest of their team is below average as they employ an “all or nothing” approach to their team. These teams are generally top-heavy and very susceptible to injuries that could end their season. That’s not to say the players themselves are injury prone, but if one or more of these players do fall to an injury, the aggressive bidder’s team has no possible way to recover.

In order to counter the very aggressive bidder, you must be willing to sacrifice any hope of getting some stud players. Adjust your game plan to focus on value opportunities for other studs or above average players. Chime in every once in a while to keep the price moving upwards if possible. The sooner this bidder is out of the running, the sooner you can get down to business. You will have allies in this endeavor, especially the next bidder we’ll examine.

The second kind of bidder you always see in dynasty leagues that is represented as a cast member on Storage Wars is the antagonist. This bidder on Storage Wars who fits the bill is Jarrod Schulz and he has an ongoing feud with Hester. Jarrod’s goal on the show seems to be keeping Hester from winning any auctions. If that fails, he wants to make sure Hester has to pay a substantial amount in order to win.

In every auction, there exists at least one antagonist – a bidder who isn’t particularly interested in some of the top players, but is bound and determined to make sure the very aggressive bidder has to pay through the nose in order to obtain the player in question. The antagonist views himself as standing up for the league or the “small guy” against a bidder who thinks the rules don’t apply to him. The strategy is sound, but is usually overdone. When overdone, the antagonist can have their strategy blow up in their face when everyone else realizes what’s happening and leaves the antagonist holding the proverbial bag when they stop bidding.

The antagonist will likely end up with several good to elite players in spite of themselves, but these are rarely the players the antagonist was targeting prior to the draft and they will inevitably be forced to try to “wheel and deal” after the auction. These bidders are usually the second highest class of spenders in a draft and need to be identified very early. If identified early enough, you can usually counter and neutralize them by acting interested in a player and bidding aggressively. The antagonist will usually pick up on this and dance with you for a while. It’s a dangerous dance, but work the price up to a value that is slightly above fair market price and abruptly stop bidding. Essentially you antagonize the antagonist. Provided you’re able to do this one or two times, you should be able to effectively remove the antagonist from future bids. When this bidder is taken out of the equation, the next type of bidder starts his run.

With “tweedle-dee” and “tweedle-dum” out of the way, the next bidder who steps up to the plate is the value bidder. This bidder usually misses out on the top of the line studs, but jumps in early enough to snag some borderline studs and above average players. This results in a roster of mostly “good” players.

In Storage Wars, this bidder is named Darrell Sheets and he has the nickname of “The Gambler.” I’m not entirely sure where that nickname comes from because the two bidders we’ve talked about prior to this one take more and larger risks. However, this bidder will likely put together a good team that will likely do well enough to make the playoffs due to the strength the bidder collects, coupled with the depth he or she has compiled.

This bidder tries very hard not to overspend on any one player and will usually drop out of an auction on specific players if pushed hard enough, just as Darrell goes home empty handed on a regular basis. The depth this bidder compiles will usually produce at least one gem, just as this bidder on Storage Wars always seems to find at least one big ticket item hidden away from view. In order to counter this type of bidder, you must bid hard for any specific player you are attempting to get in order to push this bidder out of the running early. Identify mid-level players you have no interest in and gently bid these players up en masse to slowly chip away at this bidder’s cap space. Be very careful not to bid too aggressively or this bidder is liable to remove themselves from contention on those players.

This, of course, leaves the last bidder who rounds out our merry group, the conservative bidder. This bidder tends to clean up the scraps near the end and rarely ends up with a top ten player in the draft. They are content to allow the auction to proceed around them without much engaging. On Storage Wars, this bidder is cast member Barry Weiss.

Despite his flashy outer appearance and jovial personality, Barry usually picks up the lower-end lockers and bows out of the bidding early and often. He is content to take in the atmosphere, but doesn’t dig down deep and fight tooth and nail for any locker he sees. Barry, more often than not, like his conservative counterparts in dynasty auction drafts, dwells near the bottom in terms of profit – he generally takes a loss or barely breaks even. Every once in a while he’ll luck out and pull a rabbit out of his hat with a big find. However, these are few and far between and sometimes only appear valuable until closer inspection, much like the one week wonders the conservative dynasty auction bidders uncover every once in a while.

The conservative bidder usually competes at the end of the draft with the very aggressive bidder who is suffering from a depleted salary cap. There isn’t much you can do, or even need to do, in order to counter a conservative bidder. The good thing about these bidders is they do the work for you by their timid manner and generally just get out of the way.

Every episode of Storage Wars is entertaining and gives you a great insight into how to maneuver your dynasty fantasy draft. You’ll definitely find yourself cheering for one character more regularly than you do others – usually it’s this bidder’s style you most closely resemble. Once you’ve singled out your counterpart in the show, try to make mental notes about how this cast member both succeeds and fails at what they do. Also observe how they interact with the other cast members for tips on how you too can do the same. Please ignore the prices the bidders themselves place on items as they are usually overinflated. Instead, listen to what the experts they visit value those items at – this will be your key indicator of success and failure.

Personally, I find myself split between the antagonist (Jarrod) and the value bidder (Darrell). I hate it when bidders try to bulldoze the league and have no problem bidding those people up in order to remove them from the rest of the auction I care about. However, I try to keep my emotions in check and back off every once in a while in order to assess what values I can find while everyone else is focused elsewhere.

It’s always great to see a very aggressive bidder sitting silent after they realize they severely overpaid for their team. I know some people find the tactic of bidding others up “cheap” or “dishonest,” but I feel it is a very essential part of the auction format and serves as a counterweight to those who have no regard for (or are reckless with) their salary cap space and who drive player prices up league-wide.  If you don’t care about your salary cap space, then why should I? Sure, I may get burned now and then, but I can recover from that, can you?

Look for my new article in this series as I show you how the show Pawn Stars can teach us a little about trade negotiations.

If I told you Brent Celek was a top five dynasty tight end, would you think I’m nuts? Given that his average draft position is the 14^th tight end, that he’s selected around the 11^th round in current start-ups, and many rank him lower than 10^th, I bet you would.

I assure you, I’m not nuts and I have the analysis to back it up.

2009-2011 Summary

Let’s start with a quick flashback and recap of Celek’s past three years, so we’re all grounded in his performance.

Back in 2009, Brent Celek and Donovan McNabb built a connection that resulted in a breakout season for the young tight end where he finished with nearly 1,000 yards receiving and was the 4^th best tight end in standard PPR leagues.

Enter Mike Vick in 2010 and Celek struggled. He finished the year with half of 2009’s production and ranked 18^th among fantasy tight ends.

Push forward to 2011 with Vick at it again and Celek improved, finishing with 700 yards as the 11^th ranked fantasy tight end.

Overall, his 2011 season was fairly average, which would seemingly destroy my top five proclamation and I can officially be declared nuts. On its face it’s average, but delve into the details of his 2011 weekly performance and he actually returned to his 2009-self – that’s exactly why Celek is deserving of a top five dynasty tight end ranking and why he’s being drastically undervalued. Some owners are snake bitten from 2010 and others recall that year, but don’t see a great 2011 season glancing at his 2011 statistical performance, but there are many positive signs pointing to a top ranking.

2011 Performance Breakdown

It’s time to get into the details. The following depicts how Celek stacked up against the tight end field in 2011 in both total points and points per game from a fantasy perspective:

In both instances, you can see that Celek held firm in his top 12 ranking. That’s probably why his average draft position approximates the 11^th tight end and he’s ranked around that same spot by most outlets.

Keep the above rankings in mind – they’ll be important when considering where to rank him going forward as discussed at the end of this section below.

While he hovered around the 11^th tight end overall, if we look at a weekly breakdown of his 2011 performance, it’s clear that something happened right before the Eagle’s week seven bye:

1)      The extrapolated 2011 numbers would rank Celek as the 3^rd best tight end in 2011.

2)      The extrapolated 2011 points per game is 14.2, which would rank Celek just behind Aaron Hernandez as the 4^th best tight end.

3)      If you aren’t comfortable extrapolating his TDs and you keep them flat at 5, he would still rank as the 3^rd best TE in 2011 without them.

4)      His 2011 extrapolated numbers are eerily similar to his 2009 numbers.

Based on the above, there’s merit to ranking him as a top five dynasty tight end. However, many are still skeptical. The most common concern is that we don’t know why 2010 occurred and that it won’t be repeated again.

What Happened in 2010?

I decided to dig into 2010 a bit more to try and determine why the drop-off in performance occurred and to assess if it’s likely to occur again. Before looking at the statistics, my hypothesis was that Celek’s 2010 struggles were a result of three things:

a)      Vick’s inaccuracy  / Celek and Vick were not in sync in 2010

b)      Celek was used more as a blocker in 2010

c)      Celek was not used in short and intermediate routes in 2010

Vick’s inaccuracies / Celek and Vick Not In Sync

Since Celek does most of his damage over the middle (70% of his targets), I decided to take a look at his performance in that area since it would be most representative. Looking at his statistics in ten yard increments and comparing each of the three seasons, there’s a sizeable difference in his catch percentage over 10 yards in 2010. Here are the numbers that were pulled:

If we were able to split the above information for the final 11 games of the season, I believe we’d see an increase in Celek’s catch percentage over the middle and also in the ten yards plus range as compared to the above. Based on the weekly breakdown of Celek’s performance earlier, the tight end / quarterback chemistry appears to have stuck beginning in week six through week 17, which bodes well for Celek going forward. I’d expect an increase in the above 2011 numbers going in 2012, as a result.

While this is positive information, it’s not the biggest contributor to the 2010 decline. There’s a stronger catalyst detailed below.

Celek used as a blocker more in 2010

I won’t post the tables of statistics here because they’re lengthy, but I found no substantial difference between the 2009/2011 blocking rate and 2010. There was a slight spike of approximately 3% in 2010, but that’s not likely to have a meaningful impact. I was wrong on this one based on the information I have.

Celek not used in short/intermediate routes

This is where I really found the driver.

When looking at the 2009 catch breakdown, it was clear that Celek made a living in the short-intermediate areas and racked up a ton of yards after the catch. There’s also a quote from Andy Reid from the 2010 offseason where he discusses that they need to get Celek back involved in the short and intermediate passing game.

Sure enough, when you look at the statistical breakdown from the past three seasons, Celek’s 2010 targets, catches and yards decreased significantly under 20 yards and under ten yards from scrimmage. In 2011, his targets, catches, and yards spiked back up close to the 2009 level. Take a look:

There’s a similar pattern less than 20 yards from scrimmage:

If we were able to bifurcate weeks one through five and the remainder of the season and extrapolate week six forward for a full season, I’d venture to guess that they’d be even better and closer to his 2009 numbers.

The bottom line is that in 2010, Celek wasn’t used in the short and intermediate area of the field where he excelled in 2009. That was rectified in 2011 and it showed in his final numbers and, thus, there’s no need to be concerned with a Celek decline going forward.

Conclusion

It’s simple… Celek deserves to be considered as a top five dynasty tight end and he isn’t currently.

If you’re concerned about being burned like many were in 2010, don’t be. The above shows that there was a clear transition period from Donovan McNabb to Michael Vick that resulted in underutilization of Celek in the short and intermediate passing game, as well as chemistry issues arising between Vick and Celek. Both issues appear to be resolved and Celek is back to his 2009 top five tight end form.

Still think I’m nuts?

Follow Steve on twitter.

21.  LaMichael James, RB SF

There’s no questioning the dynamic that James brings with him to the San Francisco.  I expected him to run a quicker forty (4.45), but all one has to do is put on any Oregon game tape and speed is the first thing that will jump out.  James has plenty of that, in addition to phenomenal lateral agility, acceleration and determination.  At 5’8″ and 194 lbs., the other thing that James possesses is a relatively maxed out frame that hasn’t been able to withstand constant punishment.  Heading into the NFL, injury concerns loom large and potential owners must balance certain risk vs. questionable reward.

The 49ers, leveraging their stingy defense, have further loaded the offense with playmakers, both young and old.  Already possessing Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, Kyle Williams and Frank Gore, they farmed the draft for further speed in the form of first round receiver A.J. Jenkins, followed by James in the second round.  It’s obvious that second year coach Jim Harbaugh is ready to pull out all the stops in creating a fast paced and lightning quick offense.  Where James fits at this point is anyone’s guess, but you have to believe they’ll work him around to get him the ball in space via bubble screens, swings and quick slants.  In the right system, and through reduced contact, James could pay big dividends in a PPR format.  Or, he could simply be another bench player that flirts with production, but never achieves starter status in fantasy.

22.  Marvin Jones, WR CIN

A DLF forum favorite, Jones lands in an intriguing situation and, as a fifth round selection, could overtake third round selection, Mohamed Sanu, in camp for the right to start across from second year pro A.J. Green.  Coach Marvin Lewis put together a nice draft for the Bengals, who are now clearly on the rise.  Gone is the uber-athletic Jerome Simpson (MIN), and taking his spot is almost certain to be one of those newly drafted rookies.  Jordan Shipley is returning from injury, but is in line to see more work from the slot while second year quarterback Andy Dalton hopes to build on a relatively successful rookie campaign.  It should be noted the Bengals had an easy schedule in 2011 and will be challenged to a greater degree in 2012.

As for Jones, he brings his good size and better than advertised speed to Cincinnati and could be in a dead heat race for a starting role.  He wasn’t a scoring machine at Cal, but had questionable quarterback play.  He’s got reliable hands, is tough enough to go across the middle and is physical at the line of scrimmage.  He’s got a chance to be productive in year one and makes for a true second or third round sleeper.

23.  Ryan Broyles, WR DET

There’s a lot to like with Broyles.

While his drafted situation may not be high on the list of positives, there will exist plenty of opportunity when the time comes for Broyles to see the field.  For anyone who saw Broyles’ season come to an end in the championship game, it’s impossible not to root for him.  Over the previous years, he’s established himself as a leader, plays with extreme heart and, on the field, has a game fitting a player many inches taller than his actual size (almost 5’11″).

Broyles is a natural slot receiver and is nearly as fearless in a blocking role as he is going across the middle.  He’s got good phone booth agility and runs crisp routes, excelling out of breaks and creating separation.  Straight line speed won’t surprise many, but he’s quick enough to make cushioned defenders pay and agile enough to get deep on occasion.  He could slip into the third round of fantasy drafts and his status will likely be determined by those that already know of him. He’s also a candidate to start 2012 on the PUP list as he continues to recover from ACL surgery.  Making field time more challenging will be the current receiver group of Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Titus Young.  Expect a selection in the 19-24 selection range.

24.  Nick Toon, WR NO

Fourth round selection Nick Toon is a relatively average receiver across the board, but is said to remind the the Saints of a younger Marques Colston.  Colston has re-signed in the Big Easy, but gone is Robert Meachem, leaving an important starting job open and available to any receiver ready to step up.  Catching passes from Drew Brees is good for any rookie’s career and dynasty coaches are undoubtedly watching the situation closely.

Toon isn’t likely to garner much attention until your draft’s third round, but his drafted situation bears watching.  If the Saints brass truly believe that Toon is Colston reincarnate, he’ll be on the field early and often and could see material targets.  Brees is known to spray it around, but he also understands the need to get the rookies involved towards establishing confidence and chemistry.

We don’t expect Toon to put up notable fantasy numbers in 2012, but his situation necessitates an addition in later rounds.

25.  Bernard Pierce, RB BAL

Pierce is an intriguing specimen that fell to a less-than-ideal situation with his selection by the Baltimore Ravens.  Highly coveted running back Ray Rice is as tough as they come and snaps for Pierce will likely be few and far between.  However, should the injury bug bite, he also has the size and ability to be a productive back behind an offensive line that is more than capable.  At  just over 6′ tall and 218 lbs., Pierce is built to take a hit, but does have enough speed to get to the sidelines.  He’s not the receiver that Rice is, nor is he as capable in pass protection, but he is willing and should pick up the nuances of this phase of the game without much difficulty.

Pierce is yet another back who won’t surprise you in any one area, but is capable in all of them.  Given his size and speed (4.49) combination, he’ll be an easy handcuff target for existing Rice owners, so be sure to know where they’re stacked in your draft if you covet him.

26.  Robert Turbin, RB SEA

Turbin was on the rise early heading into the draft, but the relatively one dimensional runner really never picked up enough steam to be over drafted come draft day.  Still, Turbin lands in as good a situation as he could have hoped for.  The ink on Marshawn Lynch’s contract isn’t yet dry and plenty of questions surround Beast Mode’s ability to play through his contract at a high level now that he’s been “paid.”  Turbin isn’t a dynamic back that’s going to take over a game.  He’s a bit stiff as a runner, but should exist well in a zone-blocking scheme which favors his one cut and go style.

Lynch owners would be wise to play the handcuff with a selection of Turbin in the third round of rookie drafts.

27.  Greg Childs, WR MIN

Childs fell further than expected on draft day and winds up in a favorable situation in Minnesota.  With a realistic shot to see the field in 2012, he makes for a sneaky third round rookie draft selection.  He has good enough size and bulk and does a nice job of tracking and catching in stride, letting few balls reach his frame.  I’d like to see slightly bigger hands (9 5/8″), but they have not shown to be a problem.  Not an ultra exciting selection here, but he does have upside.

28.  Cyrus Gray, RB KC

Good size, good leg drive and sufficient hands make Cyrus Gray a capable backup to Jamaal Charles in Kansas City.  Gray runs with more power than would be expected for a back of his size and he’s quicker (4.47) than I gave him credit for.

In the end, he is buried behind both Charles and Peyton Hillis, but neither will appear on any posters for durability.  Gray’s pass blocking will be a significant liability in the NFL, but he’ll have plenty of time to work on it while waiting for an opportunity to produce.

Some believe that Gray is highly undervalued and has a similar skill set to the aforementioned Charles or Demarco Murray.  He will likely find his way into the fourth round of rookie drafts.

29.  Ryan Lindley, RB ARI

Ron Jaworski believes that Lindley could be a starter in four years – that’s high praise for a rookie who has as more holes in his game than he has strengths.  Yet one only needs to see the ball leap from his hand to understand the arm that Lindley possesses.  There’s no question that he has the strongest arm in the 2012 draft class and he shows it on nearly every pass.  He doesn’t have the ability, seemingly, to dial back his arm strength and throw with touch.  However, he has the size and arm to hold down the pocket.  If he’s allowed to develop without being rushed into service, I agree with Jaworski in that he has a chance.  Arizona is a great landing spot for him.

30.  Juron Criner, WR OAK

Criner has the size, athleticism and enormous (10 1/2″) hands to be a difference maker at the next level. Except for the slower than expected forty (4.68), Criner would have been drafted much, much higher.  He does carry an injury concern and tends to get lazy on occasion, but he has the physicality and catch radius to surprise  if given a chance.  Criner is as raw as they come, but falls to an intriguing receiver situation in Oakland.  Keep track of him and snag him in the middle of the fourth round if given the opportunity.  We love his upside but remember that the NFL is littered with receivers with the same “upside.”

31.  Chris Polk, RB PHI

What a draft for Mr. Polk.

I can’t imagine sitting in front of the TV for three days waiting to hear your name called only to have the draft end with no ring of the phone.  In all likelihood, however, Polk’s phone was blowing up as they entered the sixth round.  Word has it that a combination of a shoulder injury combined with a “degenerative hip condition” caused Polk’s steep value slide.  Tell that to him though and he’ll be the first to deny that he has any hip condition. Furthermore, a letter from Dr. James Andrews clears Polk for football activities outside of minimal scarring in the affected shoulder. In the end, he ends up in a decent situation and isn’t far from the field.  He has youth on his side and he’s as NFL ready as any of this year’s rookies.

32. Russell Wilson, QB SEA

If not for being three inches less than the accepted minimum height for prototypical quarterbacks in the NFL, Wilson would have been a top ten pick.  He has elite athleticism, mobility and leadership and is truly impressive under center.  At Wisconsin, he was said to have the sixth biggest line in football, including the NFL.  I wouldn’t count out Wilson and in Seattle, his upside is even greater.  Take a chance on the diminutive signal caller as there’s something about him that screams “rare talent.”

33.  Brock Osweiler, QB DEN

Outside of being creepy, he’s tall, has a good enough arm and will be mentored by none other than Peyton Manning.  Who knows when he’ll see the field or whether he’ll be ready when he does, but he’s worth a shot in the late third or early fourth round of your rookie draft.

34.  Ladarius Green, TE SD

He’s a raw talent, but very athletic and in the mold of what the Chargers like at the position.  Antonio Gates is no sure bet to stay healthy and even if he does, look for Green to see the field.  He’s a great handcuff for owners of Gates.

35.  Tommy Streeter, WR BAL

A receiver who stands at 6’5″, weights 219 lbs. and runs a 4.40 forty?  Yes, please!

Streeter only had a single year at Miami and enters the NFL as a raw talent needing significant refining in all phases of his game. Much like Stephen Hill, he’s a specimen who has natural size and hands to dominate should he develop.  He’s extremely young, has sloppy footwork and is a bit clumsy in and and out of his breaks, but I like him as a deep sleeper in this year’s class.  One surprising negative was his relatively disappointing vertical jump of 33″ at the combine.  He’ll need years of development, but I’m not betting against him just yet.

36.  Chris Givens, WR STL

We’re not really sure what to make of Givens in St. Louis.  He’s not overly physical, but is fluid, quick and has the speed to make secondaries pay.  He’s a raw talent and has small hands, but he’ll see the field early for the Rams.  Beat writers expect both Givens and fellow rookie Brian Quick to be starting in week one.

37.  Devon Wylie, WR KC

At every turn while watching the NFL Combine, I found myself saying “who is that?” And nearly every time, it was Devon Wylie.  His situation isn’t great, but he’s as good a Wes Welker clone as I’ve seen.  This doesn’t mean that he IS the next ultra productive slot receiver, but he’s got the suddenness, explosion and hands to be great if used properly.  I would have liked to have seen him in Washington with RGIII.

38.  Dan Herron, RB CIN

Herron has both BJGE and Bernard Scott in front of him.  That’s all you really need to know to take a shot.  Fast?  No.  Dynamic?  No.  A good downhill runner with decent vision and power?  Yes.  Just what the Bengals like.

39.  Nick Foles, QB PHI

Foles was in the midst of a consistent valuation slide leading up to the draft.  During the combine I was disappointed to see a different player than I saw on  tape.  However, in that thought is the truth of the situation.  The tape is far more important than the combine or, as Mike Mayock would say, the underwear olympics.

Foles is a complete mystery.  He’ll be groomed behind Michael Vick and seemingly has enough arm and football IQ to get an eventual shot.

What he does with it is anyone’s guess and, as such, he’ll be drafted near the bottom of your rookie draft. If you’re in need of a developmental quarterback prospect, you could do worse.

40.  DeVier Posey, WR HOU

Somebody eventually has to be worthy to start across Andre Johnson, right?   The one that eventually does will be a valuable asset.  Next up, DeVier Posey!

For those of you in IDP leagues, here is a subject that’s very important to you that often isn’t covered on your normal fantasy sites. With offseason trades and drafts, a lot can change from one season to another and there are always sleepers to uncover over the summer to take advantage of during the fall. Here is my list of sleepers that you can look to for fantasy points during the 2012 season. This list probably isn’t comprehensive; I’ve tried to pick out a few players at each position that had no value or very little value last year, but due to offseason moves have shown to have the potential to score big points in 2012.

Kelvin Sheppard, MLB BUF

Here’s a guy who played well last year as a rookie, but played inside backer in a 3-4 defensive scheme.  During the offseason, Dave Wannstedt became the defensive Coordinator and Buffalo is moving to a 4-3 defensive scheme. The team has announced that Sheppard will be the starting middle linebacker this year. If that holds true, Sheppard will be the benefactor of a defense geared toward getting him tackles – that’s all I really need to know to identify him as a sleeper for 2012

Brooks Reed, OLB HOU

Mario Williams left Houston this offseason, paving the way for Brooks Reed to become starting outside linebacker in his place. Brooks was a rookie last year and played very well when Williams was injured. That being said, he didn’t make a ton of tackles, but showed a penchant for getting to the quarterback.  With a year under his belt and a lock to be a starter, he should have a great chance to breakout and increase his tackle totals with a chance for double digit sacks.

Robert Quinn, DE STL

Quinn was also a rookie last year and saw time in spot duty behind the starters at defensive end in St. Louis. This year he has the opportunity to take over the starting role and shoot for double digit sacks. Quinn was considered the top defensive end last year and has a lot of athleticism – he showed that during the second half of the year, getting to the quarterback five times. It’s quite possible to double that sack volume in 2012 with the possibility of moving into the top 20 defensive ends in terms of fantasy scoring for 2012.

DeMeco Ryans, MLB PHI

Many people probably don’t see Ryan’s as a sleeper, but I do. Ryans is a quintessential 4-3 MLB, small and speedy with the potential for lots of tackles.  Unfortunately, Ryans was in the wrong scheme last year and he was hurt most of the year coming back from an Achilles injury and also facing elbow problems. Fortunately for the savvy fantasy owner, all of those problems have washed away this offseason. Ryans was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles where he will be the starting MLB. He also has had plenty of time to heal the injuries that caused him mobility and strength problems last year. Look for him to get back to the top of the linebacker scoring in 2012.  He does come with some injury risk, but his upside is now much clearer. If healthy, he can be a quality LB2.

Darian Stewart, DB STL

Here is another St. Louis defender who is young and showed a lot of potential last year. Stewart is a rangy safety who played on a defense that was on the field long time.  He was a rookie last year, but showed the ability to come up with enough big plays (three sacks, two forced fumbles, one INT) to go along with 66 tackles and 17 assists, showing he could be very fantasy relevant.  This year he could vault into the top 20 with a year under his belt, the full time job his and by playing on an up-and-coming team that will play a lot of defense next year.

Sam Acho, OLB ARI

Acho was a rookie last year from Texas.  He is one of the most intelligent people in the NFL. He’s strong, rangy and took over the starting job in the middle of last year when Joey Porter showed he had nothing left in the tank. With the full time job now his, he has tremendous upside and should finish in the top 30 without much of a problem.  If he can increase his sacks to double digits, he could finish in the top 20.

So, now that the draft has come and gone, who are some of your IDP sleepers this year?

Ken Clein can be found on twitter @DynastyFootball.  Ken also blogs at dynastyfootballfan.com.  Be sure to catch him there as well.