Summer Sleeper: AFC East IDPs
So far this summer, the focus on sleepers here at DLF has been on the offensive side of the ball. Steve Wyremski and I are going to be rolling out IDP summer sleepers across the conferences over the next few weeks.
As always, these sleepers will be of varying levels – some of the stash variety and others who could breakout in 2014.
As we’ve highlighted previously, scheme changes, coaching changes, and position changes can significantly alter IDP value and present arbitrage opportunities for owners. Based on those items and training camp thus far, here are some AFC East sleepers:
BUFFALO
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Preston Brown, LB
When the Bills selected Preston Brown in the third round of this year’s NFL Draft, they didn’t plan on him seeing the field much this year. Obviously, that all changed when IDP stud Kiko Alonso went down for the year. Now the team’s MIKE linebacker of the future finds himself, at worst, looking at a sub-package role on passing downs. He’s currently listed as the primary backup to both starters Brandon Spikes and Nigel Bradham. If either were to go down for any extended period of time, Brown would most likely step in and keep the job. Spikes is playing on a one-year deal and would have to play out of this world to be back in Buffalo next season. If the team’s defensive unit, now led by Jim Schwartz, struggles to stop the run early in the season, they could look to turn to the young tackling machine from Louisville. Early reports from OTAs stated he had already caught the coaches’ eyes. He’s currently a stash with upside for 2014 production, but has legitimate LB2 upside next year.
MIAMI
Koa Misi, LB
Misi is a different kind of sleeper. He’s a familiar name entering his fifth NFL season but he makes the list because he is making a transition from the fantasy un-friendly strong side to the very fantasy friendly middle linebacker spot. Prior to this year he has never had more than 50 solo tackles or 65 total on the season but the Dolphins are turning to him after 2013 free agents, Dannell Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler, failed miserably to improve the defense. Through training camp he has stayed on the field in sub-packages and if the transition continues to go smoothly he’ll set a new career high in tackles by week nine. Misi has a very real opportunity to sneak into the back half of LB1 territory this season. People drafting on name recognition and last year’s stats will easily pass on Misi, but you shouldn’t.
NEW ENGLAND
Jamie Collins, LB
One of IDP’s worst kept secrets is Jamie Collins, the second year player of the New England Patriots. Collins had a fairly quiet rookie season as he worked his way in and out of the lineup. But this all changed during the playoffs, especially against the Indianpolis Colts. Collins caught the eye of everyone with his six tackles, one sack and an interception of Andrew Luck. He was everywhere and showcased his versatility on a national stage. The one trait desired by Coach Bill Belichick above all else is versatility. The more ways to stay a player can stay on the field the better, especially for a defense which thrives on disguise and misdirection. Entering this season, Collins is inked into the starting weak side linebacker spot and an every down role. He’ll be moved all over the formation and asked to rush the passer as well as drop into coverage. He’s the perfect mix of high floor and high ceiling. He’ll get enough tackles to avoid the stinker weeks but his playmaking ability gives him the chance to be the position’s top scorer any given week. If you can get him as your LB3 you should be very pleased.
NEW YORK JETS
Dimitri Patterson, CB
Don’t think I’m praising Patterson’s talent by selecting him as a 2014 sleeper. On most teams he wouldn’t be any more than a nickel corner, but the Jets are paper thin at the cornerback position and Patterson, unfortunately, is the only sure thing they currently have. Dee Milliner is nursing a high ankle sprain and will probably miss week one. Kyle Wilson was slated for nickel duties but will be forced into action and the Jets have moved Antonio Allen to corner, who was slated to start at strong safety. Patterson is going to see a ton of targets from opposing teams unless he proves he can hold his own. He won’t. What he’ll see is an abundance of tackle opportunities from the cornerback position. Milliner led the team’s corners with 56 total tackles. Patterson is only a sleeper in deep leagues requiring two starting cornerbacks. He’s a mid-level CB2 who costs nothing.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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