Denver Broncos Backfield: Dual Opportunity

The Denver backfield ended up being one of the storylines of the 2018 season.

John Elway and the front office decided to part ways with CJ Anderson following his 1,000-yard campaign in 2017. While Devontae Booker remained on the roster, they spent a third round pick on Oregon prospect, Royce Freeman, who entered the preseason as the presumptive starter. The team also added a little known, undrafted prospect, Phillip Lindsay.

At 5’7” and 184 lbs, Lindsay was considered a depth piece and more of a risk to Booker’s pass-catching role than Freeman’s early down work. Rookie ADP for Freeman was seventh, per MyFantasyLeague.com, whereas Lindsay was outside the top 100.

LINDSAY AND FREEMAN PPR WEEKLY FANTASY PERFORMANCE

Freeman came out of the gates strong, rewarding owners with nearly 20 points in week one. As shown above, however, he failed to eclipse Lindsay’s point totals during any other game during the season when both played (except week three when Lindsay was ejected in the first quarter).

Beyond just fantasy points, Lindsay outperformed his counterpart across every statistical category. Freeman was essentially unstartable and his ADP has dropped accordingly. Lindsay was highly efficient, ranking seventh in true yards per carry (discounts runs beyond ten yards), 17th in yards per touch, and 12th in breakaway runs (15+ yards).

He was notably 31st in yards created, a metric of yards generated beyond what is blocked. While this is lower than ideal, it remains impressive for a back weighing less than 190 lbs.

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DENVER BRONCOS 2018 RUNNING BACK STATS

Freeman seems to have been another story. He averaged just four yards per attempt and did not add much to the passing game with a meager 5.1 yards per reception. There was a stark contrast in his efficiency between shotgun and under center.

He averaged 4.4 yards per carry while under center but only 1.7 in shotgun. A limitation was that he rushed into stacked boxes 24.6% of the time and went against seven or more defenders 22nd most in the league.

So what has changed for 2019?

Enter Rich Scangarello, the new Broncos offensive coordinator. This is one of the most intriguing, under-the-radar hires of the off-season. Scangarello — someone I had never heard of despite being a San Francisco 49ers fan — is coming from the 49ers and Shanahan’s system where he was most recently the quarterbacks coach.

Scangarello has spoken highly of Shanahan’s system and has a history of play calling (albeit limited) with use of a zone rushing scheme, run-play option, pre-snap jet sweep motions, and vertical route calling. He has also used similar personnel as Shanahan, with frequent use of 21 (two running backs, one tight end, two wide receivers) sets. Read more about his coaching history here.

This suggests a potentially substantial shift in the play design of the Broncos offense. The four coaches who have used 21 personnel the most in recent years are Kyle Shanahan (Atlanta Falcons and 49ers), Sean Payton (New Orleans Saints), Bill Belichick (New England Patriots), and Matt Nagy (Chicago Bears).

Each of these coaches have schemes that create dual backfield fantasy options. The Saints and Patriots have consistently produced two top 24 running back fantasy options year after year. Nagy found a use for both Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard. And Shanahan is most known for tag-teaming Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in 2016.

COACH 21 PERSONNEL FREQUENCY

*21= two running backs, one tight end, two wide receivers

So why is this the case?

It boils down to opportunity. Volume is the number one predictor of fantasy success for running backs. When coaches use 21 personnel, it increases snap counts and touch opportunity for more running backs. When this is paired with a creative offensive scheme — including the run-pass option, pre-snap motion, and stretching the defensive horizontally — it lightens the defensive front and creates a more efficient rushing attack.

This all adds up to make the Broncos 2019 backfield one of the most fascinating in the league. Lindsay and Freeman have the potential to be a well-balanced tandem in a scheme with heavy 21 usage if implemented by Scangarello. Denver finished with the sixth best offensive line in 2018 and was seventh in power rushing per footballoutsiders.com. They ranked 21st in rushing attempts (393) and yet managed to finish 11th in yards (1,907).

Question marks remain at quarterback with Joe Flacco as the presumptive starter, which may continue to limit the upside of the offense. The counterpoint to this is that the 49ers were bad in 2018, but Shanahan and Scangarello coaxed competence from a third-string quarterback (Nick Mullens) and created fantasy assets of multiple running backs (Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, and Jeffery Wilson Jr.).

FANTASY IMPLICATIONS

Lindsay’s ADP is currently 58th and Freeman’s is 94th overall. I believe Lindsay is priced properly and worth acquiring given the likelihood his role and usage remains similar to 2018 at around 220 touches. He may also see an increase in receptions given the tendency for this scheme to utilize running backs in that role.

Freeman may be a bargain given the disappointment of this past season. Some recent trades (per the Dynasty League Football Trade Finder) include:

• Freeman for Donte Moncrief and a 2020 second round pick
• Freeman for 2019 pick 2.01
• Freeman for Tyrell Williams
• Freeman for Hunter Henry

Besides the Henry trade, I would be willing to pay these prices for Freeman heading into 2019. He has the potential to be integrated more into the offense and garner a significant increase in touches. He also serves as a valuable handcuff if Lindsay were to be injured, which would lead to Freeman stepping into a workhorse role.

Data courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, www.sharpfootballstats.com, footballoutsiders.com and playerprofiler.com.

Thank you for reading. You can follow me @FF_TomB. I am always happy to answer questions and chat all things Fantasy. Stay up to date on all your dynasty needs at Dynastyleaguefootball.com

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