Cleveland Browns and the Fake Tell: Are We All Being Played?

The Cleveland Browns have been on quite the trading spree as of late. Within a 24 hour period, the team acquired Tyrod Taylor for the 3.01, Jarvis Landry for the 4.23 and a 2019 seventh round pick, and defensive back Damarious Randall in exchange for DeShone Kizer and the swapping of Cleveland and Green Bay’s 2018 fourth and fifth-round picks. Then, the next day they traded defensive tackle Danny Shelton and a 2018 fifth-round pick to the Patriots for a 2019 third round pick.

Speculation abounds that the Browns are setting themselves up to draft NFL Draft sensation, Saquon Barkley, with the first overall pick. The logic goes as follows. If Cleveland gets a starting quarterback and a top wide receiver to throw to, then their need to draft a quarterback with one of their top picks no longer makes sense. Initially on the surface that logic makes complete sense.

However, I subscribe to a different view. One from a perspective that everything isn’t quite as simple as it appears on the surface. One where the Browns might be trying to leverage the one thing they have, the public’s belief that they are a perpetually lost franchise, against everyone. Sound interesting? Let’s dive in. Even if I’m wrong, this could be a great “what if” story for years to come!

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Cleveland has long been known as a franchise in turmoil. I could write an entire article – hell, an entire series – about the steps and missteps that brought them to this reputation. Suffice to say, for now, the perception is real and deserved. The franchise has started 28 quarterbacks since 1999, a statistic that is chilling as it is sad. Over that span, the Browns have amassed 88 wins. At first glance, that seems impressive, but that too fades when you realize they lost 251 times over that same period. They’ve been dubbed the lovable losers, Clowns, and Frowns. One fan went so far as, via his obituary, to request that six Browns players serve as pallbearers at his funeral, so they could “let him down one last time.”

So why, given a long history of failure, do I believe it is now the public being played?

It comes down to viewing football in a similar way to another game, poker. In poker, there is ever only one winner per hand, much like a football season. Also, like football, players can strategize in such a way to gain an advantage many hands in advance. Some players pride themselves on being able to predict the actions of other players based on small “tells”. Tells are changes in how a player acts or reacts to a situation. These tells are often subconscious in nature and players work very hard to remove tells from their game so as not to tip off their opponents about their intents.

Teams can have tells too. Some teams might run the ball 100% of the time in a specific formation if they are leading in the fourth quarter for instance. Those tells can be present both on the field and off the field, as well. If a team has a lot of money to spend and a hole at a position, then it seems very likely that they will sign one or more of the top free agents to address that hole. Like most poker players, teams don’t like to telegraph their moves in advance. This is why you will see players often released in “corresponding moves” after a big signing. This is where my theory begins to take root.

One of the sneakiest ways to throw an opponent off your scent in poker is to establish what is referred to as a “fake tell”. By faking a tell, a player, or team, hopes to create the impression that others involved in the game believe they can predict an action that player, or team, will undertake only to ultimately react in an entirely different way, taking those who thought they had the player, or team, figured out, entirely by surprise. To put it another way, the player, or team, creating a fake tell do so in order to trick others into thinking they are going to do one thing, when in fact they have the intention of doing something completely different.

So what do the Browns have to do with fake tells?

Well, it is my theory that the Browns understand the common conception that teams are built by putting certain pieces in place before others. First, you start with solidifying your offense line, which they’ve had varying degrees of success doing, and it is still an on-going process. Then you add weapons around a quarterback for him to throw to. After that, you add a franchise quarterback. Finally, given the limited productive window of the position, you add an elite running back to the mix.

The moves the Browns have made recently appear to be checking off boxes. First, they went out and added a top receiving option to an already potent receiving corps that includes Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman. They followed that move up in rapid fashion by obtaining a young, but experienced quarterback to get the ball to their rejuvenated receiving corps. All that is left now is the final piece towards being competitive, an elite running back.

Here is the genius of the plan Cleveland is laying out. It is my belief that the Browns don’t feel they are actually at this step just yet. Remember earlier when I said that Cleveland has had 28 starting quarterbacks since 1999? This is a team fully aware of the issues they have had at the position in years past. Their trading partner, the Bills, weren’t fully sold on the belief that Taylor was their long-term answer at quarterback either. They even went so far as to bench him last season due to doubts they had. Why would the Browns now suddenly believe he will be their answer? The simple answer is, they don’t believe it either.

Cleveland likely views Taylor three different ways, first, he will be a good player for a future quarterback to learn from. Second, he can step in and act as a serviceable option while the next quarterback learns or has setbacks. Finally, they view Taylor as a value enhancer. This one requires some explanation. By obtaining Taylor, the Browns hope to signal that they are ready to draft a running back – the top running back – in the upcoming draft. Other teams that have become enamored with Barkley now must scramble to put together an offer to obtain the first overall pick so that they can draft him instead.

This is top-grade draft maneuvering. I believe the Browns knew the market for the top overall pick was soft. No one felt that Cleveland would be drafting Barkley only a week ago and teams that wanted to obtain him were seeking out trade discussions with teams following the Browns, such as the Giants and Colts. In order to bolster the value of the top overall pick, the Browns sacrificed the 3.01. However, that one move by itself would be too transparent. Cleveland wanted to stack moves together to create confusion and the appearance that they were addressing immediate needs in short order.

Now, a case could be made that the Browns are poised to be, at the very least, competitive next season before even drafting a single player. They appear to have many more options available to them than even a week ago. Teams now have to question if the Browns feel they are within striking distance of their division leaders. However, I believe the Browns know they don’t have the infrastructure in place to get everything out of Barkley needed to make both him and the team successful. Drafting Barkley would be viewed by many as squandering both an opportunity to add value to the team and, possibly, one of the best running back prospects in recent years.

Ultimately, I believe Cleveland will trade out of the pick and will accumulate even more draft capital in this, and future years. They will then draft the top quarterback on their board with the fourth overall pick, a quarterback who will learn behind Taylor and will end up taking over one of the best receiving corps in the league, at least on paper. The Browns will then draft one of the top running backs with one of their following picks. I expect they will also stock up heavily on offensive line prospects throughout the draft and will be able to continue their rebuild with high level picks for the foreseeable future.

The Browns are poised to pull off one of the greatest reveals in modern draft history if they can get a team to bite on their fake tell. Right now, they are probably fielding a fair share of questions about the availability of the first overall pick. If they are able to successfully move their pick, then expect this master class in deception to be examined by NFL general managers for years to come.

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