Baltimore Ravens: An Underrated Wide Receiver Landing Spot

Tom Burroughs

The Baltimore Ravens are considered one of the worst landing spots for a wide receiver to be drafted into this week. There may be merit in this assertion, but it is worthwhile taking a closer examination to determine if it holds up.

The concerns are the volume and efficiency of the Ravens passing offense.

The team was third last in pass percentage and 26th in yards per attempt (6.7) in 2018. The coaching staff revamped the offense when Lamar Jackson took over in week 11 to create a scheme predicated on the run. Jackson averaged only 24 passing attempts and nearly 20 rushing attempts per game. He rarely attacked vertically, only having 13 attempts beyond 20 yards (completing five of them). His rushing totals are great for his personal fantasy value and will lead to him being ranked in the top 15 among 2019 quarterbacks. But averaging less than 175 passing yards is not a promising sign for a rookie receiver.

So why might this not be a terrible spot?

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2018 Ravens Wide Receiver Target Leaders

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First and foremost is opportunity. Baltimore targeted wide receivers 318 times in 2018. 197 of these targets went to the top two receivers in Michael Crabtree and John Brown, both of whom departed in free agency this summer. This leaves Willie Snead as the team’s only receiver remaining with more than 25 targets from last season. Snead plays a defined role with 71.7% of his snaps coming out of the slot. He is not built or capable of being an X receiver or primary target in an offense. Even if his targets increase by 50%, there are still 175 targets available for an incoming receiver.

One consideration is the Ravens’ use of tight ends in the passing game and that the receiver targets could just be diverted to this position. There is a deep tight end group with Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, Nick Boyle, and Maxx Williams. While there may be an uptick in tight end targets, the team has been remarkably consistent with the role of this position the past four seasons. Target percentage has ranged from 20.2% to 24.1% in that time span.

Ravens Targets By Position Group

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The percentage of targets going to running backs was lower in 2018 than in previous seasons. This is not surprising given the use of Alex Collins and Gus Edwards as primary backs. Neither of these players excelled in receiving game and combined for 23 total targets. The addition of Mark Ingram will lead to more versatility at the position and a possible return to previous years target percentage.

All this being said, there will most likely be a minimum of 150 targets up for grabs among receivers outside of Snead. While there is some optimism for players such as Jordan Lasley and Jaleel Scott, it is hard to imagine these players will overtake a rookie selected in the first two rounds for snaps. Baltimore was near the bottom of the league in 1-1 personnel usage (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) with Jackson under center (54% of plays). This is consistent with John Harbaugh’s scheme from previous seasons and more frequent use of two tight end sets, so we can expect this to continue. If so, this severely limits the snap and target opportunities of the third and fourth receiver on the team. My takeaway is that a highly drafted rookie and Snead will have the lions share of snaps and thus the most opportunity to capitalize on the available targets.

Notably, the team did not make any additions in free agency for a receiver to fill this void. This makes the team a near lock to select a receiver in the first two rounds of the upcoming draft.

So what about Jackson as a passer?

I think it is fair to say the jury is still out. He was not asked to do much in his seven starts and was primarily used as a rusher and game manager to allow for their elite defense to limit opponents. His deep passing was nonexistent and intermediate throws were mediocre, but he was consistent with league average on short passes. The hope is that the off-season leads to further development and integration of new passing concepts. It is unrealistic to think the coaching staff will rely on Jackson to rush 20+ times per game and remain upright by end of the season.

Lamar Jackson QB average heat map

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*Images courtesy of ffstatistics.com. Color indicates the frequency of passing to a region of the field. Numeric is completion percentage on these attempts

It is important to qualify that the type of receiver drafted will significantly impact whether this is a quality landing spot. I will not be touting a speedster who is brought in to take the top off defenses as a player who will find fantasy success on this team. They had this in 2018 with Brown. He was a reliable asset with Joe Flacco under center and was on pace to be in the top five for air yards.

John Brown 2018 game splits with Flacco and Jackson

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As shown in his game splits, Brown became unstartable when Jackson took over. As mentioned above, I do believe the team will attack downfield more in 2019 and hopefully Jackson improves in his ability to do so. But one would be hard-pressed to imagine this will occur enough to support fantasy success for this type of receiver. Players such as Marquise Brown and Parris Campbell are slated to be drafted high this week, but they are not the profile of player I would target as a member of the Ravens. Even DK Metcalf would be a concern given the question marks about his route tree and ability to do more outside of using his speed to win downfield.

On the other hand, a possession style receiver who excels in short and intermediate routes and can win on contested catches may find success. N’Keal Harry would be a week one starter and would clear 100 targets easily in this offense. Hakeem Butler’s size, athleticism, and catch radius would give Jackson a forgiving target on the outside as he develops his accuracy. Even Kelvin Harmon could step into a substantial target share and may be an asset underneath despite concerns about his athleticism and ability to separate.

A comparison that keeps coming to mind for this situation is Kelvin Benjamin being drafted in the first round by Carolina in 2014. The Panthers had just moved on from Steve Smith and not had a pass catcher top 815 yards or six TDs the previous season. The team was built around a rushing quarterback and running back tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. It is fair to say there was minimal excitement for Benjamin. But the pass catcher void was real and Benjamin ended the season with 145 targets for over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns.

All this adds up to the Ravens not being the death knell wide receiver landing spot that is projected. The need for an immediate impact from a drafted receiver can lead to early opportunity and thus fantasy success. Take the discount that will come with this feared situation and capitalize on an early contributor for your roster.

Data courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, www.sharpfootballstats.com, ffstatistics.com footballoutsiders.com and playerprofiler.com.

Thank you for reading. You can follow me @FF_TomB. I am always happy to answer questions and chat all things fantasy. Stay up to date on all your dynasty needs at Dynastyleaguefootball.com

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