2020 Dynasty Capsule: New England Patriots
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
The Patriots had an early exit in 2019, getting beaten by the Tennessee Titans in the wild card round of the playoffs. Just about every position on the offense has question marks, thus leaving the coveted younger players on the roster a risky proposition for dynasty purposes.
Quarterback
Tom Brady (ADP: 231.50, QB29)
Age: 42
Brady’s contract is a little complicated. While he is technically signed through 2021, if a new deal is not reached by the end of the 2019 league year (March 18th, 2020) the contract voids and he becomes a free agent (data courtesy of Over the Cap).
Brady has also been rumored to have sold his house last year. All signs point to him being done in Foxborough. We will know more on or before March 18th. Regardless of whether he signs back in New England or resurfaces elsewhere, it is safe to say his days of being fantasy-relevant are done save for superflex leagues. For what it is worth, the former Wolverine still finished as a QB1 in 2019 (QB11). Despite his 15th QB1 finish in 20 seasons, the ADP has dropped steadily, mainly due to age concerns.
Jarrett Stidham (ADP: 235.33, QB38)
Age: 23
In 2019, Stidham was drafted in the fourth round (#133 overall) out of Auburn. The Patriots felt comfortable enough with the rookie to cut Brian Hoyer before the season began on August 31st. Stidham showed well enough in the preseason to lock up the backup job for 2019.
Cody Kessler is the only other signal-caller on the roster and is not a threat to the rookie’s long-term prospects under Bill Belichick. The former Tiger is worth a dart throw in the off chance that Brady retires or signs elsewhere. However, you would have to think a veteran will be signed as a stop-gap option for 2020.
Cody Kessler (ADP: N/A)
Age: 26
The journeyman quarterback is under contract for 2020 but can be cut before June 1st and cost the Patriots zero dollars in dead cap money or salary. The USC alum can be safely left comfortably on the waiver wire.
Running Back
Sony Michel (ADP: 105.17, RB28)
Age: 25
The over-hyped second-year back from Georgia failed to finish as an RB2 yet again in 2019. Michel finished as the RB28 in PPR formats. This followed up a rookie campaign that saw him end up in the RB34 spot.
The backfield is just too crowded, and he simply is not involved enough in the passing game to be useful unless a touchdown gets scored on the ground. My guess is he lost owners more games than he won them in his first 16 game season (Michel missed three games in 2018). Despite playing in three more games, only 12.5 more points were scored than the prior season. A look at a tool soon to be available for DLF premium subscribers shows just how bad it was on a point per opportunity (.54 PPO) basis this past season.
It is hard to be too optimistic about the former Bulldog and his 3.7 YPC averaged in 2019. Even if Brady retires or moves on, it is hard to imagine Belichick running the ball more than they did in 2020. The Patriots were tenth in the league in rushing attempts, checking in at 27.6 attempts per game (data courtesy of Team Rankings).
James White (ADP: 114.33, RB31)
Age: 28
It is interesting that the versatile back is being drafted after Michel despite averaging almost four points per game more than his backfield mate. Age may be a factor, but White will still only be 28 entering the 2020 NFL season.
The former Wisconsin Badger managed an RB2 finish in 2019, checking in at RB24. People seem to be forgetting the RB7 finish in 2018. That is back to back RB1/RB2 seasons. Not too shabby for the RB29 in ADP. This looks like a good place to find value for your RB2 or flex spot.
If you owned the multifaceted back last season, you were likely only burnt one time. White was a model of consistency, scoring in double-digit points in all but three of 16 games (one game was 9.6). This is exactly the type of player you can count on week in and week out to not cost you a victory. The blowup potential is also there as evidenced by the 37.7 PPR points put up in week 13 against the Houston Texans.
Damien Harris (ADP: 160, RB45)
Age: 23
He is a bit of an enigma. The draft capital alone invested in Harris in 2019 (third round, 87th overall) would seem to indicate he should have received more than four carries all season. Even more mysterious is the fact that there were only two games that the former Alabama star was active. Did he fumble in every practice to find himself in Belichick’s doghouse?
It is hard to put a true value on the dynasty worth here. It is certainly possible that White or Rex Burkhead leave as they have no guaranteed money left on their contracts. If that is the case, then the needle certainly would point up and make it much more palatable to take a shot on Harris late in drafts. Monitor the situation this off-season.
Rex Burkhead (ADP: 238.67, RB72)
Age: 29
The value vulture just will not go away. The former Cornhusker seems to stay healthy enough just to be an annoyance to any of the main running backs who maybe the flavor of the year that season. Lo and behold, Burkhead is under contract again for 2020 at the age of 30.
At this point, his value should be limited to just an end of the roster stash or a handcuff if you happen to draft Michel. The former Bengal would hold some serious value if any of the two main backs miss significant time next season.
Brandon Bolden (ADP: 235.83)
Age: 30
Nothing to see here. Bolden is an exceptional special teams asset who will occasionally get opportunities on offense but should be left sitting on the wire barring multiple injuries to the backfield in 2020.
Wide Receiver
N’Keal Harry (ADP: 80.50, WR34)
Age: 22
The early returns are certainly interesting. This feels like a steep price to pay for a player with so many question marks. Who will be throwing him the ball? Can he learn to separate from man coverage in the NFL? The hope is he can live up to his market share metric score from Arizona State that would indicate he is a star in the making.
Harry was right there with some of the biggest names at the position in terms of their share of receiving yards in their respective offense schemes in college. Market share has been a good indicator for success at the next level for some time. Let us hope in holds true in this case.
Julian Edelman (ADP: 128.17, WR46)
Age: 33
Despite finishing as the WR9 in 2019, Edelman is not seeing much love in the ADP data. Age, injury, and quarterback questions must be the culprits. The shoulder injury suffered late in the season really seemed to hamper the slippery wideout.
Over the final three games, the usually-reliable fantasy asset averaged just 6.9 points per game. The fact that it happened in the fantasy playoffs also likely left a sour taste in many owners’ mouths. There certainly is value to be had here, like James White’s ADP. If Brady returns, there is no reason to think the former quarterback cannot put up another WR1 or WR2 performance. That is a solid return at the current price.
Jakobi Meyers (ADP: 235.67, WR88)
Age: 23
The preseason darling from 2019 is an interesting dynasty prospect. While all the focus lies squarely on Harry, Meyers certainly made a case for himself to be more involved in the Patriot offense going forward. Phillip Dorsett (more on him later) is a free agent for 2020 and there are no indications he will be back, thus opening the door for more snaps for the converted quarterback.
While preseason stats often do not often mean much, it is hard to ignore the fact that the North Carolina State grad led the NFL in receiving yardage in 2019. His snap count dwindled the final three games of the season but did get as high as 77.1% in week 12 against the Dallas Cowboys. There is no coincidence that a season-high nine targets came in that game as well. It would be advised to at least consider Meyers as a back end of the roster flier and he certainly has a shot to make some noise.
Mohamed Sanu (ADP: 233.17, WR75)
Age: 30
Entering his age-30 season, Sanu is on the payroll of Robert Kraft for one more season. He made some noise in his second game as a Patriot with 14 targets against the Baltimore Ravens.
That was the one and only worthwhile game of the season. From that point on, the veteran receiver never scored more than 6.5 PPR points in a game. This came despite seeing upwards of eight targets multiple times the second half of the season. There is not much dynasty appeal here.
Phillip Dorsett (ADP: 237.67, WR92)
Age: 27
Any sliver of value the soon to be free agent had was tied with being a member of what was considered a good offense in New England is likely gone. Dorsett can be avoided in all formats.
Quincy Adeboyejo (ADP: N/A)
Age: 24
The Mississippi grad bounced around his first two seasons in the league. The UDFA does not belong on fantasy rosters, yet.
Tight End
Matt LaCosse (ADP: 237.33)
Age: 27
The fact that a tight end with 13 catches for 131 yards and one touchdown is atop the depth chart for the Patriots tells you all you need to know about the dire state of affairs at the position. They will clearly be addressing the position in the draft or via free agency. Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry are both free agents. Look elsewhere unless Belichick makes a splash signing.
Ryan Izzo (ADP: N/A)
Age: 24
Another tight end with just over 100 yards on the season, Izzo went for six catches and 114 yards while adding a touchdown. As mentioned above, this is a position that will be addressed by the front office. Take a wait-and-see approach.
Ben Watson (ADP: 239.67)
Age: 39
The journeyman tight end called it a career on January 5th. Congrats to him on a great career.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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