$250 FFPC Dynasty Start-up Draft

Jeff Haverlack

Editor’s Note:  Welcome to our coverage of the FFPC’s high-stakes dynasty format. The FFPC games are unlike any other in the industry due to their reputation and visibility in the space.  From their first introduction in 2010, they only continue to gain in popularity.

The second installment of our 2016 FFPC draft coverage for 2016!

DLF and the FFPC are partners once again in 2016 and we’re covering live drafts to be used as another source of reference for your own drafts. The thought here is that the “high stakes” element brings with it a high degree of fantasy coaching experience and performance.  These coaches are putting serious money on the line with the hope of greater payouts at the end of the rainbow and you can bet most put a lot of work and research into each selection.  With this particular FFPC dynasty league requiring a $250 entry fee, there’s little room for mistakes.

This review is for a $250 12-team start-up draft.  Standard scoring Point Per Reception (PPR) format with the exception that tight ends receive 1.5 PPR.  Passing touchdowns are worth the standard four points while rushing and receiving touchdowns bring six points each.  Starting rosters are as follows:  1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF/ST.  One note about the FFPC Dynasty format:  Each team has 20 total roster spots with one each given to kickers and Defense.  At the end of each year, teams must drop four players to reach a total of 16 total players.  This makes for a relatively shallow roster with emphasis on productive players.

You can see all of the rules at MYFFPC.com.

If you’re ready to step up to the most serious dynasty competition on the planet, we highly suggest you check out the FFPC Dynasty Games!

For this review, I’ll be listing ten rounds of selections with a brief summary following each round.  In addition, I’m going to switch it up just a bit from my last review and provide my input as to which picks I believe represent the best value and biggest reach.

For reference, you can find our first installment, a $1,250 draft right here.

Let’s dive in!

Round One

1.01  Odell Beckham, WR NYG
1.02  Antonio Brown, WR PIT
1.03  Julio Jones, WR ATL
1.04  Todd Gurley, RB STL
1.05  DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
1.06  Amari Cooper, WR OAK
1.07  Mike Evans, WR TB
1.08  Allen Robinson, WR JAX
1.09  Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
1.10  Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
1.11  A.J. Green, WR CIN
1.12  Rob Gronkowski, TE NE

Summary

As it turns out, 11 players are selected in the first round when compared to my first review.  It’s really no surprise unless you believe Dez Bryant deserves to be a first round candidate.  Coming off his injury and with Tony Romo as his quarterback, I doubt that will be a common occurrence.  As it stands, only Keenan Allen falls out of the first round, replaced by Le’Veon Bell, as it should be.

Best Value:  Rob Gronkowski.  It’s hard to find real value in a first round filled with star caliber players but in this format, with 1.5 PPR given to tight ends, Gronk can steal the show.  He’s a solid pick and he’s only 27.  He’ll provide a huge advantage every week.

Biggest Reach:  None.  If you held a gun to my head I’d say Mike Evans.  I just don’t trust him.  Can’t really put my finger on it nor do I pan the selection, I just wouldn’t take him in the first round.  Just too many other known quantities out there.

Round Two

2.01  Dez Bryant, WR DAL
2.02  Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
2.03  Keenan Allen, WR SDC
2.04  DeVante Parker, WR MIA
2.05  Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
2.06  David Johnson, RB ARI
2.07  Lamar Miller, RB MIA
2.08  Donte Moncrief, WR IND
2.09  Brandin Cooks, WR NO
2.10  Kevin White, WR CHI
2.11  Corey Coleman, WR CLE
2.12  Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN

Summary

This is like one of those movies that starts really slowly with a family boarding an aircraft headed on vacation and three minutes later, it blows up in mid-air.  Okay, it’s probably not that bad but at the same time, the end of this round threw me for a loop.  In some ways I really like it except for the fact that it violates one of my steadfast tenets – don’t overpay unless there’s a reason.  That’s not to say that these coaches don’t have their favorite players and are taking a shot here as I do support that but, at the same time, you have to know when these players will come off the board.  Both Coleman and and Green-Beckham should be on the board up to two rounds from now but the key here is being that they’re at the end of the round in a serpentine draft, the won’t make it back to either drafter.  Points to be pondered when drafting …

Best Value:  David Johnson.  I like the Johnson selection at 2.06.  It would appear that he will be one of my worst misses in fantasy after I believed James Starks was a noted comparison and superior talent while looking much the same on tape.  I’m still not completely sold on Johnson and want to see a full year of productivity but what I saw at the end of 2015 was hard to ignore.

Biggest Reach: Dorial Green-Beckham.  That’s what I call a booger-nose pick right there.  I do so appreciate a coach stepping up to follow his heart.  I don’t agree with the selection as DGB could be had in the fourth round in all likelihood but if you as a coach love a player to that degree, over-draft him.  For myself, I won’t do it unless the value is at least close and I can’t justify this selection.

Round Three

ffpc-300x2503.01  Cam Newton, QB CAR
3.02  Josh Doctson, WR WAS
3.03  Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
3.04  Andrew Luck, QB IND
3.05  T.Y. Hilton, WR IND
3.06  Jarvis Landry, WR MIA
3.07  Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN
3.08  Jordy Nelson, WR GB
3.09  Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
3.10  Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
3.11  Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
3.12  Jordan Reed, TE WAS

Summary

The third round looks very similar to the same round from my last review.  Two quarterbacks, both Luck and Newton, are off the board.  Jordan Matthews is selected at 3.09 again so his value is established if you have your eyes on him for your draft.  The selections are VERY similar here so it’s safe to assume that you can take these values to the bank as they should be representative.  What I’m also seeing is that this year’s rookies continue to come off earlier than I expected.  Both Coleman and Doctson off a full round or more than I was anticipating.  Note that this does not make me question their value as much as it does get me excited that younger, and more proven, players who will be pushed down.

Best Value: Kelvin Benjamin.  I really like the selection of Benjamin at 3.10.  In the previous draft, he went at 3.07 which I still believed was a solid value.  At his size, age and with his quarterback, despite the injury, I love his value here.  I won’t go as far as to say it’s a stellar value but I think he could well outproduce this selection in 2016 and beyond.

Biggest Reach: Josh Doctson.  3.02 is just too early for me to select Doctson, even given how much I like him.  Doctson and Laquon Treadwell are neck and neck on my board for top rookie receiver from the ’16 class and Doctson is my gut feel for WR1.  That said, he’s still a completely unproven rookie and there are too many names that will grace the next two rounds following this selection to risk this early of a selection.  As good as I think he can be, he’s not elite enough in my book for this selection.

Round Four

4.01  Randall Cobb, WR GB
4.02  Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
4.03  Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN
4.04  Sterling Shepard, WR NYG
4.05  Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
4.06  Michael Floyd, WR ARI
4.07  Thomas Rawls, RB SEA
4.08  Travis Kelce, TE KC
4.09  Zach Ertz, TE PHI
4.10  Coby Fleener, TE NO
4.11  Eddie Lacy, RB GB
4.12  Brandon Marshall, WR NYJ

Summary

A lot of good value in this round and the rookies continue to come off the board earlier than I expect.  This draft is also slowly starting to take on its own personality when comparing it to the last FFPC draft reviewed.  Kelce and Ertz again went back to back so there value is well set.  Peterson, Lacy, Shepard and Floyd also are round four selections again.

Best Value:  I applaud the Brandon Marshall selection at 4.12.  At 32 years old, he’s still got another 2-3 years of productive fantasy life ahead of him and he could be a vital piece to a team looking to win it all now.  But Randall Cobb with the first pick in this round gets the nod.  He’s young, Nelson is returning and his poor season last year, which I don’t believe is indicative of his play, will likely be proven to be an anomaly.  This is a classic buy low opportunity off a poor season and I love the value if I can get him in the fourth round.  For reference, in the first draft reviewed, Cobb was selected at 2.12.

Biggest Reach:  Shepard at 4.04 is a huge reach, any way you stack it.  I do understand building young but in the fourth round with so many great receivers and players still on the board, you can’t afford to take a risk like that. Unless the coach also happens to be his mother, this is a relatively significant over-draft in my mind.

Round Five

5.01  Greg Olsen, TE CAR
5.02  Jeremy Maclin, WR KC
5.03  Mark Ingram, RB NO
5.04  Julian Edelman, WR NE
5.05  Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
5.06  Russell Wilson, QB SEA
5.07  Golden Tate, WR DET
5.08  Doug Baldwin, WR SEA
5.09  Carlos Hyde, RB SF
5.10  Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN
5.11  Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
5.12  Doug Martin, RB TB

Summary

Solid round of value here and  the quarterbacks are finally starting to leave the board.  While I’m not a fan of leading out with a quarterback in the first six rounds, if you get a slinger like Rodgers that falls and you have a good core from your first picks, this is not a bad play.  I’d still wait on the quarterback, but it’s hard to argue to much with Rodgers in the 5th.

Best Value:  The aforementioned Rodgers is my selection here for all reasons I already mentioned.  With four players serving as the foundation, knowing who your starting quarterback will be for the next seven years is a comforting factor.  I also like the selection of Doug Martin at 5.12.  Martin was a favorite pick of mine last year as his value plummeted after a poor year prior and he responded with a fantastic season.  Still young, Martin as your RB2 gives you solid RB1 upside each week.

Biggest Reach:  I’m not a fan of the Jay Ajayi selection this soon.  In the previously reviewed draft, he was selected in the seventh round.  Now with Arian Foster in Miami, Ajayi’s value takes a significant hit and he’s still carrying a reported bone on bone condition in his knee which could limit long term potential.  For the most part, however, all these picks do make some sense and represent solid selections.

Round Six

6.01  Jamaal Charles, RB KC
6.02  Matt Jones, RB WAS
6.03  John Brown, WR ARI
6.04  LeSean McCoy, RB BUF
6.05  Dion Lewis, RB NE
6.06  Derrick Henry, RB TEN
6.07  Delanie Walker, TE TEN
6.08  Eric Ebron, TE DET
6.09  Allen Hurns, WR JAX
6.10  C.J. Anderson, RB DEN
6.11  Melvin Gordon, RB SD
6.12  Julius Thomas, TE JAX

Summary

These coaches have turned in a very solid round and it’s hard to poke holes in any of these selections.  This round is defined by upside players coming off questionable seasons.  From top to bottom, you can’t find a single player without a significant question mark.  Hurns at 6.09 is likely the most stable value here as he represents solid receiver upside in a new higher-octane offense.  Beyond Hurns we see players returning from injury, about to engage in a significant camp battle, a rookie or a player coming off a downright disappointing season.

Best Value:   Charles at 6.01 is a fine ‘get’ this late.  Yes, he’s coming back from injury but his frame, injury timing and situation provides a lot of upside for ’16.  As long as you’re building to win immediately, Charles is a solid addition.

Biggest Reach:  None.  Solid value up and down this round.

Round Seven

7.01  Matt Forte, RB NYJ
7.02  Jameis Winston, QB TB
7.03  Devin Funchess, WR CAR
7.04  Ladarius Green, TE PIT
7.05  Duke Johnson, RB CLE
7.06  C.J. Prosise, RB SEA
7.07  Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
7.08  Gary Barnidge, TE CLE
7.09  Stegon Diggs, WR MIN
7.10  Kenneth Dixon, RB BAL
7.11  Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
7.12 Giovani Bernard

Summary

Starting to see some bold reaches in this round as coaches are either targeting their favorite players or are taking stabs at long term upside players.  I think it’s two rounds early from some of these plays but I never begrudge a coach from getting favorite players or sleeper selections in the draft, even if having to over-draft them.  But you have to be smart and understand when other assets can be added before adding that coveted players.  It can be a very fine balance to maintain.

Best Value:  None.  Most are good picks with no significant value selection present.  We have reaches but the coaches continue to do a good job at finding value and making solid selections.

Biggest Reach:  C.J. Prosise.  A coach is swinging for the fence on this selection.  All indications out of Seattle are that the coaching staff sees Prosise primarily as an upside third down back and also consider him raw as a runner, which he is.  A converted receiver, Prosise only has a year as a full-time runner but does have the size for three down work if he develops.  That said, I’m not sure he’s better than fourth on the depth chart behind Rawls, Christine Michael and rookie Alex Collins for an early down role.

Round Eight

ffpc-300x2508.01  DeMarco Murray, RB TEN
8.02  Michael Thomas, WR NO
8.03  Marvin Jones, WR DET
8.04  T.J. Yeldon, RB JAX
8.05  Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
8.06  Latavius Murray, RB OAK
8.07  Jeremy Langford, RB CHI
8.08  Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE TB
8.09  Eric Decker, WR NYJ
8.10  Ameer Abdullah, RB DET
8.11  Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT
8.12  Tevin Coleman, RB ATL

Summary

The story round.  I call it that because many of the players I’m seeing go off in ninth rounds have a lot of interesting stories attached.  These stories can significantly lower a player’s value but also provide, at the same time, tremendous opportunity for a coach willing to flip the risk-reward coin.  These rounds now are where the long term success of your team is determined.  Most can draft through eight rounds without doing a lot of homework but if you wish to succeed, long term, these next rounds now are why you put in the extra work.  Let’s see who found the gems.

Best Value:  DeMarco Murray.  There are a couple of solid values here but none better than Murray here.  What a difference a year makes.  Coming from Dallas two years ago, Murray was an easy first round selection running behind that vaunted Dallas offensive line.  Fast forward to Philly and it was a catastrophic marriage that has tanked his value.  Now in Tennessee, Murray has a new lease on fantasy life and should put together a much better season.  Questions continue to dog him as to whether he can run behind another line with any level of success, especially with rookie Derrick Henry behind him.  The coaching staff is said to view him as a true workhorse so carries shouldn’t be an issue.  I make a lot of my fantasy prospects by drafting out of favor players like Doug Martin in 2015.  My choice for 2016 is DeMarco Murray.

Biggest Reach:  I’d like to say Michael Thomas but the rookie intrigues me in that offense with Brees at the helm.  Instead, put me down for Seferian-Jenkins.  The tight end is in the dog house and seems to be poised for an exit sooner rather than later.  I’m not even sure that ASJ can beat out Cameron Brate for the starting job.  I would have waited another round or two before selecting him and think other tight ends represent better value.

Round Nine

9.01  Blake Bortles, QB JAX
9.02  Jimmy Graham, TE SEA
9.03 Devontae Booker, RB DEN
9.04  Ryan Mathews, RB PHI
9.05  Michael Crabtree, WR OAK
9.06  Torrey Smith, WR SF
9.07  Danny Woodhead, RB SD
9.08  Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
9.09  Charles Sims, RB TB
9.10 Tavon Austin, WR STL
9.11  Dwayne Allen, TE IND
9.12  Derek Carr, QB OAK

Summary

As the entry point for those later rounds, I expect to see the next set of quarterbacks off the board along with more of the rookies.  Most teams will now have a very solid foundation built and will be willing to take more risk as they add youngsters with upside.  There are still solid value-based players on the board and I always recommend taking young production over lower -tiered zero-experience rookies if you can find it.  A young player entering his third year is a much better bet than the 20% chance of a rookie selected in the second round or beyond in fantasy.  Always shade to production when possible.

Best Value:  Blake Bortles.  I’ll admit that I do have a soft spot for Bortles but I also happen to believe that he’s got a great future in the NFL.  Perfect blend of size, mobility and arm strength.  Better yet, he has a young set of offensive weapons around him and now with Chris Ivory in the mix, a run game that should bring more smash-mouth football to Jacksonville.  This should pay dividends for Robinson, Hurns and Thomas.

Biggest Reach:  Torrey Smith.  At this round, it’s hard to find a bad reach and Smith doesn’t truly represent that but he’s on the fringe.  San Francisco is a dumpster fire at this point with a lot of kindling left to burn.  Smith was terrible in ’15 and prospects appear worse this year.  Anything could happen and Smith is only three years removed from having a career season, but he won’t grace my list at nearly any price.

Round Ten

10.01  Hunter Henry, TE SD
10.02  Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
10.03  Tyler Boyd, WR CIN
10.04  Willie Snead, WR NO
10.05  Drew Brees, QB NO
10.06  Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
10.07  Martavis Bryant, WR PIT
10.08 Josh Gordon, WR CLE
10.09  DeAndre Washington, RB OAK
10.10  Paul Perkins, RB NYG
10.11  Austin Hooper, TE ATL
10.12  Theo Riddick, RB DET

Summary

Some great value in this round and coaches are doing their homework.  I can almost feel the excitement as coaches near being “on the clock” seeing names like Josh Gordon, Drew Brees and Jonathan Stewart still on the board. These players  have all fallen for a reason but have the upside to take a mediocre team into the playoffs if they can overcome their deficits.  Good rookie picks, solid veteran selections and long term risk-reward plays through this entire round makes for a lot of intrigue.

Best Value:  I’d like to say Josh Gordon coming back from suspension but I have to go with the veteran Drew Brees.  I’d be ecstatic to be selecting Brees this late and I have little explanation as to why he lasted this long. Thinking that I might just be over-representing his value I return to the previously reviewed draft and find that he was taken in round six.  I just have a a feeling that after Brees was selected, more than one coach exclaimed “Doh!” not realizing he was still on the board.

Biggest Reach:  Martavis Bryant.  Tough choice but Bryant, while he has a ton of talent, is out of football for the year after another failed drug test and is said to be doing well in rehab on his way back to full health.  But he has a long road ahead of him, will be a year removed from football activities and won’t return to his same spot on the depth chart.  In the tenth round with other good names still on the board, I would have waited another two to three rounds before reaching for him.

Remaining Rounds

rounds

Wrap-up

I hope this recap has been beneficial.  Use it to gauge player value prior to your draft and, especially, toward determining how you want to build your team, where you should draft your first quarterback and what tight end possibilities remain if you wait a few rounds.  We have two more draft reviews of this format in the next few weeks so if you have an upcoming draft, you’ll be able to use multiple draft reviews toward determining the likelihood that players will come off the board at a given time.  Even if your draft is just around the corner, these drafts can be an invaluable tool for suggesting player selection and value.

One last time, most coaches will like their first three  or four selections.  Your draft and long term team strength will be determined in the following eight or so rounds.  So do your homework, look at many drafts with a keen eye on your draft slot and don’t get outworked.

If you have any questions, please comment below or follow me on Twitter:  @DLF_Jeff

Find out more about these exciting high stakes dynasty leagues on FFPCC.com!

jeff haverlack