DLF Staff Overvalued players

Eric Olinger Posted On July 11, 2016

Some people don’t realize it but July is one of the most dangerous times for dynasty owners. The NFL takes its final break before training camps and preseason kicks off. We’re just over a month away from the Hall of Fame game and the fantasy juices are starting to flow. That’s why you need to be careful this month, especially on social media sites like Twitter. Every year Twitter either hypes a player to the point you draft him a round or two higher than you should or you get talked into hating a player you have no good reason to. I asked my fellow DLF writers for who they think is currently being overvalued and undervalued in fantasy leagues. These are our overvalued players for you to re-consider.

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Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN

Let me preface this by saying I believe Treadwell is a top three to four dynasty rookie pick but I would not draft him in the first two rounds of a dynasty start-up at his current ADP of 23.50 (20^th overall). Players like TY Hilton, Randall Cobb, Donte Moncrief, Jarvis Landry and Kelvin Benjamin deserve to be selected in front of him in my opinion. I don’t trust Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense to support an elite weekly fantasy stud at the receiver position and that’s what you’re banking on at that price. Eric Olinger

Adrian Peterson, RB MIN

Peterson’s dynasty ADP makes me want to vomit cry. He’s the same age as Matt Forte and Forte has outscored Peterson in PPR points per game over the last four seasons — which includes Peterson’s historic 2012. Forget Peterson in the late 3rd and draft Forte in the late 7th. Brian Malone

David Johnson, RB ARZ

I think people are getting a little too carried away with David Johnson. He’s going in the second round of almost every startup as a top five if not top three running back. Yes, he had a very good three game stretch with 70 carries for 378 yards (5.4 YPC) and three touchdowns, but three games aren’t enough of a track record. He was otherwise very average running the ball with just 3.5 YPC for the rest of the season, including the playoffs. He is great in the passing game, but he is far from a complete running back. He was a better fantasy player than an NFL player, and those guys tend to end up in committee roles in the NFL. Jacob Feldman

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

I am not questioning Elliott’s talent, but his value is getting out of control. In our June staff mocks, he was the ninth overall selection and the second running back off the board, right on Todd Gurley’s heels. Not only is there some risk involved with any rookie — regardless of how highly-rated said rookie is — but because of the inherent risks of the position, it’s such a gamble to take any running back that early in a startup draft. I’d much rather build my team around A.J. Green, Dez Bryant or Sammy Watkins — all players who slot in after Elliott — than any running back, especially a rookie. If I had Elliott, I’d be fine keeping him, but I’d certainly shop him to see what I could get. Austan Kas

David Johnson, RB ARZ

Let me start by saying I love David Johnson. Loved him coming out, loved his landing spot and love his silly looking face. Now, he is overvalued not only because of those right on his tail, namely Lamar Miller, Devonta Freeman, and others, but due to the incoming rookies. Many have lauded the ’17 running back class for seemingly boundless talent but, they are also a very young class and the then 25-year-old Johnson will slip down the ADP based on youth alone. I can guarantee you a year from now he will not be RB4. Selling at the highest point is key here. Adam Tzikas

Allen Robinson, WR JAX

Robinson had an amazing season last year, however he faces a few obstacles in repeating or improving his performance. An improved defense will likely keep games closer, and the addition of Chris Ivory to a backfield that already had TJ Yeldon in the fold shows an added commitment to a run game. With the addition of a healthy Julius Thomas, a newly contracted Allen Hurns, and a reportedly improving Marquis Lee, the target share may take a solid hit to live up to his draft position. Dwayne Brown

Julio Jones, WR ATL

I understand that he is one of the best receivers in football, I am just not getting that he is a top five guy. Last season he lit up the stat book in receptions and when you combine the 104 he had in 2013, you’re looking at 240 catches in 31 games played. It’s not the receiving that has me worried it’s the touchdowns. Matt Ryan just can’t get him the ball in the end zone, and to think he will score more than eight times is foolish at this point. Then throw in the injuries, even though he has played healthy the last two seasons, I just don’t trust it. Injury Predictor has him at 62 percent chance of getting hurt, which is seventh for receivers. On my list, I would take Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins and Kelvin Benjamin, over Julio, then consider players such as Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, and Alshon Jeffery for the longer dynasty road. Mike Valverde

Adrian Peterson, RB MIN

Peterson is currently the RB7 based on June ADP data and moved up 14 spots from May to an average overall ADP of 35.33. This puts him ahead of younger running backs in better offenses like Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin, and Mark Ingram. I can’t imagine ever taking a 31-year-old running back in the late third round who isn’t even heavily involved in the passing game. Peterson is an all-time great but if I want to take a running back in that range of the draft I will just wait a round and take one of those aforementioned younger backs. Matt Price

Dion Lewis, RB NEP

Lewis currently has a dynasty ADP of 57 overall. He turns 26 in September and only has 39 career receptions. He’s been prone to injuries, fumbled twice on only 85 touches and had an 8.8 percent drop rate in 2015. The expectations are high for Lewis based on his 2015 reception pace. However, the Patriots highest reception total average for a running back over the last seven years is only 38. Nick Whalen

Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
All offseason I was certain Devante Parker would top my overrated list and then the Twittersphere changed all of that. Matt Harmon, who I respect a lot, picked Lockett as his “2016 Allen Robinson” and his price tag went from KIA to Tesla. An ADP of 37 (first pick in the fourth round) is a ridiculous price to pay for a second receiver in a low volume offense. Fact of the matter is, too many people are confusing efficiency for volume or at the very best ignoring volume for efficiency. No matter how you flip it, you’re paying a hefty price for a boom or bust candidate on a weekly basis. Izzy Elkaffas

DeVante Parker, WR MIA

I loved his tape, and I love his talent. But the fact is he didn’t do all that much with his chances last year, and people are selling him at a price as if he had a great rookie year. Miami is crowded at the wide receiver position, and Parker is still unproven. I like Parker, just not at his current price. Ryan Finley

Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP

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Eric Olinger

Honorary Contributor at Dynasty League Football

A 12 year old trapped in a man's body, Eric has been playing IDP dynasty leagues for almost 20 years. He enjoys Star Wars, Batman, red meat and an ice cold Diet Coke, sometimes all at once. He hopes to one day own his own Batmobile but his wife is a relentless dream crusher so the odds are slim.