The “Oh No” Draft

Nick Whalen

I decided to do a dynasty startup draft earlier this year with the intention of doing things in a way many owners wouldn’t. The purpose was for a learning exercise (this draft was in January so it’s more about overall strategy versus current ADP). It could cost me (after all the league has a $100 buy in). But we learn more in life through new experiences and mistakes, and I thought I would share mine.

League Background

$100 buy in

12 team dynasty league

Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE

PPR Scoring

The “Oh No” strategy, as I’ll phrase it, was focused on value, youth, and calculated gambles. From the beginning, my team was not going to be filled with top end studs. This is due to me trading out of the top two rounds. Why? I prefer my team to have very good depth. This allows me to overcome injuries, suspensions and stretches of poor play. People don’t normally do this, so we’ll call this the first “oh no” moment.

Trades

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I moved the 1.03, 8.10, 9.03 for 2.04, 4.04, 5.09. Why? I didn’t want to take a 28 year old receiver, or reach for one with only one year of elite production (like Allen Robinson).

I traded away 2.04, 2.10, 10.10, 11.03, 12.10 for 3.07, 4.06, 5.07, 6.06, 9.07. Le’Veon Bell was sitting there at 2.04, but I decided to double down again for more picks. This gave me 11 of the top 75 selections and the ability to take some chances.

Changing Strategy?

Many of the young wide receivers I had planned on taking were flying off the board earlier than I expected, which forced me to change up my strategy mid-draft. I acquired all of these picks and was getting anxious. Did I make a bad decision? I decided to focus on overall value to build my team.

Draft Picks

Pick 3.03: Andrew Luck QB IND

This was the next “oh no” – my very first pick in the draft by selecting quarterback Andrew Luck. I can hear readers groaning “but you should wait on quarterback!” Exactly, but that wouldn’t make this an “oh no” strategy. When looking at the goal of my team, Luck fits it. He’s proven to be a very good player and he’s young. He gives me stability at quarterback for years and a difference maker.

Pick 3.07: Donte Moncrief WR IND

This was seen as a reach by many at the time. I like his athletic ability, stacking him with Luck, and he’s young.

Pick 4.04: Rookie pick 1.03

My target of Kevin White didn’t make it to this pick, so I had to change direction. I’m very in tune with the talent available in rookie classes due to the devy report I write and watching film. The top two rookie picks went 2.02 and 3.01. This was too good of a value to pass up.

Pick 4.06: Lamar Miller RB FA

Here I am four picks into a draft with a quarterback, an unproven receiver, a rookie pick and now I go running back. I know (trust me I was thinking the same thing), but believe in your process and soak up value. I knew Miller was becoming an unrestricted free agent and he couldn’t land in a worse situation than Miami, or so I hoped.

Pick 4.10: Josh Gordon WR CLE

I’m a big Gordon advocate and thought he was worth the gamble at this price (don’t forget this was January). He’s a 25 year old with #1 overall upside. At pick 46, sign me up. After all, I traded down so I could take gambles like this.

Pick 5.03: John Brown WR ARI

I didn’t really like many of the players available, so I decided to provide some stability at receiver. Brown has two seasons of solid production and he’s still 26. Considering what was left at receiver, I had to take him.

Pick 5.07: Doug Martin RB TB

This was a pure value pick for me at this point. I didn’t need to take a second back this soon, but Martin is a proven asset and in a secure situation.

Pick 5.09: Rookie pick 1.05

I wanted to grab Tyler Lockett here, but I got greedy taking Martin first. I calculated four good players in this draft class with a few maybes depending on landing spots. This was me hoping a landing spot pushes up value.

Pick 6.06: Allen Hurns WR JAC

Did Allen Hurns call everyone’s mother a bad name? I don’t understand why he’s still available at pick 66 overall. He’s young, proven over multiple years and has a quarterback capable of supporting two wideouts.

Pick 6.10: Adrian Peterson RB MIN

Mark Ingram went one pick ahead here, but I’ll settle for Peterson. This is the 70th pick of the draft and I don’t think he should still be on the board.

Pick 7.03: Calvin Johnson WR DET

This was when the retirement was still in limbo. However, I figured it was worth the gamble and didn’t love anyone who was left.

Eleven picks in leaves me with 1 QB, 3 RBs, 5 WRs, and two high draft picks. I feel very confident with the makeup of my team, but now I need to fill it out. Drafting a few quality tight ends and a backup quarterback are top priorities. I’m not concerned about getting more depth at receiver because I’ll likely take two of them with the draft picks I’ve already obtained. The problem with filling out the rest of the roster is I only have two picks in the next 90.

Pick 9.07: Eric Ebron TE DET

The tight end run began and I was still able to grab a young talented player. However, I need to get some depth in case Ebron doesn’t fulfill expectations in 2016, because right now I have a win now team.

Pick 13.03: Matt Stafford QB DET

I felt good about filling both needs with my next two picks, but didn’t expect to take three Lions in a row. Stafford provides a young, quality backup to Luck for a long time.

Pick 14.10: Clive Walford TE OAK

Pick 19.03: Zach Miller TE CHI

Pick 22.10: Jason Witten TE DAL

Wanted some quality depth behind Ebron. Walford was a start, but Miller and Witten provide a very high floor for anything that could happen in 2016.

Pick 16.10: Arizona Defense

Pick 17.03: Denver Defense

(This was a semi “oh no” – taking defenses earlier.) I took the second and third defenses here because I think my team is in position to win in 2016. I also am hoping to create a run on defenses.

Pick 15.03: Alfred Morris RB FA

Pick 18.10: Tre Mason RB STL

Pick 20.10: Mike Davis RB SF

Pick 21.03: Zach Zenner RB DET

I took some young players with a chance, and a proven vet who is a free agent.

Pick 23.03: Mohamed Sanu WR FA

I figured I’d throw a lotto ticket out because he’s a free agent.

Pick 24.10: Chandler Catanzaro K ARI

A kicker on an offense that scores often? Why not?

After the draft was completed, I started looking to trade for players I wanted to acquire . When the Lamar Miller to Dallas rumors started is when I decided to shop him. It was a calculated gamble, but I was fine as long as the return fit into the long term goal of my team. I traded Miller away for Kevin White.

Rookie Draft

1.03: Laquon Treadwell WR MIN

Corey Coleman went 1.02, which gave me the opportunity to get Treadwell. Thought very hard about Josh Doctson and probably should have taken him.

1.05: Michael Thomas WR NO

I attempted to trade down, but didn’t have any solid offers. I know Shepard is the darling pick, but I wanted Thomas in that offense.

Overall Team

QB: Luck, Stafford

RB: Martin, AP, Mason, Alf, Zenner, Davis

WR: Moncrief, White, Treadwell, Brown, Hurns, Gordon, Thomas, Calvin, Sanu, Patterson (waivers)

TE: Ebron, Walford, Miller, Witten

K: Catanzaro

D: Cardinals, Broncos

Looking back on this team almost six months later paints a different story. I gambled and lost with Calvin. The Josh Gordon experiment took a bad turn and may have also been a wasted pick. However, gambling on soon to be free agents paid dividends with Lamar Miller and Sanu (would’ve been a home run if Dallas didn’t draft Ezekiel Elliott because I got Alfred Morris). Overall, I really like the core group of young players on this team. Combined with a few veterans, I believe I have a very good shot at winning some money in 2016. I wanted to give you an inside look at a different draft strategy that may be outside the box, but effective.

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nick whalen
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