The DLF Mailbag

Jaron Foster Posted On July 6, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and we may answer them in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions.

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Let’s get to it!

Last year was my first dynasty draft, which I did through MFL (20-man rosters). I ended up with a solid group of wide receivers: Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, John Brown, DeVante Parker, and Josh Gordon. Without having played dynasty before, I don’t know if I should be shopping one of these guys or staying put. I don’t want to waste a guy like Jordy Nelson on my bench for a couple years when I could get trade value now. Regardless of how the rest of my team looks, how should I approach being so stacked at one position? – Jeremy in Los Angeles

Jeremy, that’s a very impressive group of wide receivers for a startup draft. Although I don’t have the rest of your roster available, it is probably safe to assume that acquiring these players was to the detriment of your quarterback, running back and tight end positions. Given that you can only start up to three wide receivers out of your lineup’s six offensive skill positions, it would be to your advantage to identify which players you want to keep as your core and which you would trade for assets at other positions.

Not knowing the rest of this roster or other rosters in the league, my initial inclination would be to shop two or three of these wide receivers. Put feelers out to each team and/or the league as a whole to see what interest you get. Maybe someone is really high on Parker, an owner would give a ton for Julio or you could get great value for Jordy. After doing so, I would then see how my needs match up to the rosters of those who inquired.

Personally, I’d look to deal Nelson (although I’m a big fan, his age is an outlier from the rest of your roster) and Parker (his value has the largest discrepancy between ADP and where I value him). You may prefer to shop Jeffery due to injury concerns or Brown if you don’t think he will ever enter the elite tier of wide receivers.

Regardless of which players you choose to move, do some research on your league and get a sense for what you can get in return. You’re on the right track by looking to trade from extraordinary depth to address other needs.

Owners get to keep nine players every year with no restrictions and have 16-man roster overall. I took over a team that was near the bottom and concentrated on going young. My dilemma is I have numerous players with potential but not enough spots to keep them. I’m picking 1.2 in the draft. Also with only eight owners in the league I feel it’s better to hold on players with potential to be studs. Right now I’m keeping Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks and Keenan Allen. Should I not keep a quarterback or tight end and try to pick them up in the draft? Which five players should I keep out of these remaining players? – TG in Los Angeles

QB Jameis Winston

RB Matt Jones

RB Latavius Murray

WR Donte Moncrief

WR DeVante Parker

WR Tyler Lockett

WR Dorial Green-Beckham

WR Kevin White

WR Josh Gordon

TE Travis Kelce

TG, it has been a while since I played in an 8-team league but I would take the same approach. With so few teams, as well as bench spots per team, only 128 players will be rostered. As there are kickers and team defenses starting as well, and assuming each team only (hopefully) rosters one of each, only 112 skill position players are off the board. Loading up on potential is less risky when there is a such a deep pool of players on the waiver wire and you can easily cut bait.

For comparison’s sake, the 112^th player selected in June ADP is Tevin Coleman, with the likes of Jerick McKinnon, Julius Thomas and a bevy of top-12 quarterbacks going undrafted in this hypothetical situation. Additionally, only 16 rookies are off the board at that point. Clearly a draft in this format would take a different turn, with more quarterbacks, tight ends and rookies in general being selected, but this would only push other talented players down the draft board.

With this goal for upside in mind, I would definitely keep Moncrief, Parker, Lockett and White and would toss Jones and Murray back into the waiver pool. This leaves four options from which you can keep one more player: Winston, Green-Beckham, Gordon and Kelce. Given that you would already be keeping five wide receivers (including Allen) for three starting spots, and the substantial risk involved with the remaining two wide receivers, I’d toss DGB and Gordon back as well.

This leaves Winston or Kelce, both great options at the positions you mention bypassing, as options for your final keeper. Given the depth at the quarterback position, particularly when only eight will be started weekly, makes me lean toward keeping Kelce. His targets increased from 87 in 2014 to 103 in 2015, and though he has been given the “injury-prone” label in the past, has been the TE6 in each of his first two seasons on the field (after missing the 2013 season). With all the uncertainty beyond Gronkowski at tight end, Kelce is a top option to allow you focus on QB and RB early in the draft.

I am in the 2nd year of a rebuild, and have managed to hit on some trades/picks. My current starting lineup would’ve been Luck, Martin, Gordon/Abdullah, Cooper, Matthews, Moncrief, White/Treadwell, ASJ; and I have some fairly good young upside guys rounding out my bench (25 man rosters). My feeling is that my team is about a year away from being a real contender as there are a couple teams that are loaded. As a result I have been trying to move Martin all season as he doesn’t really fit with my current business model. I was recently sent the following trade offer and I snap accepted it. Just looking for a little outside perspective. I gave up Matthews and Clive Walford, and got Conley, McKinnon, 2017 1st, 2017 2nd (assumption is pick 9-12 of their respective rounds). – Bryan in Macomb

Bryan, as is the case with many completed trades, which side “wins” depends on a combination of scoring format, starting lineups and roster situation. In your scenario, a bump is given to running backs as just as many running backs are required to start as wide receivers. Even with the two flex spots, running back is an area of need.

The additional variable in this trade is that the majority of these assets are difficult to project as only Matthews has much of a track record (which itself is relatively short). With 152 receptions, 1,869 yards and 16 touchdowns in his first two seasons, Matthews was the WR25 as a rookie and WR16 last year. There has been a lot of negativity surrounding him this offseason, but I would buy at his current price as a mid-3^rd round startup pick.

Beyond Matthews, there isn’t much proven production in this deal. I like all three of the other players involved, though Conley and McKinnon are both buried with great measurables and potential. I don’t expect either to be a reliable starter in the near future given that McKinnon won’t be a three-down back and the low upside of Conley’s offense, but both are home-run hitters who could serve as solid flex plays. The likely late 2017 1^st and 2017 2^nd are nice pieces but fall well short of Matthews’ value. I personally don’t think the Conley/McKinnon combo over Walford makes up the difference, but it’s not unfair and others are higher on those players than I am.

The deal makes sense for you, though I might consider flipping McKinnon to the Peterson owner as he’s a player that’s more valuable to me as a handcuff than stashing at the end of my bench. Additionally, I would see how my leaguemates value the 2017 pick (as you consider it a late first) to see if you can turn that into a solid young player.

After seven different trades, I’m now ready to draft. (I have 1.7 in a 3 rookie rounder.) I was just wondering how you think I did. I sent Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Jones, Jordan Matthews, one 2016 first, three 2016 seconds, one 2016 third, and a 2017 second and third. In return I got Alex Smith, Willie Snead, and four 2017 firsts. I also believe that 2 of those firsts can be top 3 picks at worst. They are from perennial basement dwellers, and both teams still won’t be that good, even with good drafts this year. – Brian in MA

Brian, despite my perspective that the value of 2017 first-round picks is currently far too inflated, this is a fantastic net profit for you. See the above question for my perspective on Matthews, but even given my appreciation for his value I would far prefer the return to what you gave up.

Garoppolo is a complete unknown and it is slightly concerning that the Patriots spent an early pick on Jacoby Brissett, though with a soon-to-be 39 year old starting quarterback it makes sense to have additional depth. Jones should be the starter in Washington this season but I fully expect the team to spend an early pick on one of the top running backs in the 2017 draft class.

For the return on the trade, Smith is depth but at least you know what you’ll get from him as your backup quarterback while Snead should be a solid WR3 or flex option. It is unclear how early the 2016 first-round pick will be, but I would take four 2017 firsts (including two top-3 picks) over Matthews plus a random 2016 first and miscellaneous later round picks.

This also gives you the flexibility to turn your bevy of picks into an early 2016 first, should you target one of the top wide receivers (or Zeke if the price is reasonable). Dropping from JMatt to Snead is absolutely worth the difference in draft picks you received, and as the value of those picks increases throughout the season your trade options will increase as well.

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Jaron Foster

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

A data analyst by profession, Jaron has been writing for DLF since 2012. Native New Englanders, Jaron and his wife are introducing their son (2010) and daughter (2014) to the Patriots. You can regularly find him on Twitter and in the DLF Forum at odd hours.