Startup Mock with 2017 Draft Picks

Even among owners who do not know the names, the 2017 draft class hype has hit critical mass. Dynasty owners are treating their teams like apocalyptic bomb shelters, hoarding 2017 first round picks as if they were canned food. The most difficult part has been valuing these picks given the presumed premium during trade talks. What I did, along with eleven of DLF’s best and brightest writers, is set up a mock draft that included 2017 draft picks to see where they fit in today’s landscape. The full draft results are here, but I will break down where the 2017 draft slots were selected and what this means for their value.

Among the DLF writers who selected, two of them chose three 2017 draft picks in this ten-round startup mock, Nick Whalen and Bruce Matson. Eight of the twelve writers made at least one selection of a 2017 pick, so not everyone was inclined to choose from the future rookie pool.

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Early 2017 First

1.01 – 13^th overall

1.02 – 21^st overall

1.03 – 24^th overall

1.04 – 29^th overall

I struck first in this startup, taking the 1.01 selection at the 1^st/2^nd turn. Ezekiel Elliot has been going towards the latter part of round one in startups and given the insulation of having a draft pick over a player, this felt right. Keep in mind, Amari Cooper and Todd Gurley were both second round startup picks this time last year, which could mean I reacted to more recent rookie values. For a look to see who I would consider at this pick, check out Ryan McDowell’s 2017 Rookie Draft Preview.

The next three picks went off the board between the late second and mid-third round of the startup draft. This was in the same range as current rookies Laquon Treadwell and Corey Coleman. While I do believe next year’s draft class is strong, you get the benefit of production right away from Treadwell and Coleman. Meanwhile, Jordan Matthews and Randall Cobb were also in this selection area, two players I would easily trade a 2017 first-round pick for, even if I anticipated being a rebuilding team.

Middle 2017 First

 

1.05 – 33^rd Overall

1.06 – 35^th Overall

1.07 – 49^th Overall

1.08 – 64^th Overall

Basically, we had seven picks go in the first four rounds. This is on par with the June 2015 DLF ADP, although 2016 had five rookies drafted in round four or earlier (Sterling Shepard is pick 50, close enough). This startup mock was not much different with Derrick Henry going one pick after the 1.08 selection. That would mean the strength of the 2017 class in the eyes of DLF writers is being offset by the time value associated with waiting a year to use the pick.

This also seems like the right range for these picks given the talent around them. Veteran receivers like Brandon Marshall, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate and Jeremy Maclin went in the range of these picks, all reasonable trade targets for a mid-first-round rookie draft slot.

Late 2017 First

1.09 – 68^th Overall

1.10 – 78^th Overall

1.11 – 83^rd Overall

1.12 – 88^th Overall

The top 12 rookies in June 2016 DLF ADP mock drafts are gone by pick 93 while the 2015 ADP had the top 12 rookies gone by pick 84, so the 2017 picks split the difference in this scenario. Again, while the yearlong wait is different from the ADP comparisons, the strength of the future class appears to counterbalance that suspended production.

Rookies like Michael Thomas (who slipped a little) and Tyler Boyd are in this range of startup picks while veterans like Stefon Diggs, Jamaal Charles, and Doug Baldwin were selected as well. I would say the trade value of these assets are similar, but it would come down to your roster construction to determine which makes more sense for your team.

Early 2017 Second

2.01 – 91^st

2.02 – 92^nd

2.03 – 118^th

In hindsight, the gap between 2.02 and 2.03 feels like either a tier dropoff or the point where DLF writers felt less confident about the 2017 class. Looking at the 2016 DLF ADP, the 15^th rookie is going at pick 125, which is quite similar. However, the 2015 class saw its 15^th rookie chosen at pick 86, a stark contrast considering the previous alignment to this startup. This suggests a potential discount for 2017 second round picks, something we are not getting for earlier draft slots.

C.J. Prosise and Will Fuller went in the 100-110 range, guys I would have grouped in the early to mid-second round in this 2017 crop. Izzy and Nick took Josh Gordon and Martavis Bryant back-to-back right at the end, which would be in line with what I would be willing to pick for their upside.

Conclusion

This is just one startup mock among a group of writers enthusiastic about the 2017 draft class and the phenomenon around the draft pick values today. Unlike the six monthly mock drafts that compose the DLF ADP, individual preferences will show up here more. The intention was to gauge an initial price among dynasty owners. We will revisit this throughout the next year to see if player performance in both the NFL and college will greatly influence their cost.

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