Over/Under: David Johnson
When I decided to resurrect the Over/Under series, I asked my Twitter followers who they’d be most interested in reading about, Ezekiel Elliot, Todd Gurley or David Johnson. In a landslide vote, Johnson was the clear winner. It seems like he’s become one of the most polarizing dynasty assets of 2016. After a strong final quarter of the 2015 season and strong playoff performances, Johnson has skyrocketed up dynasty rankings and expectations are at an all-time high for the second year runner. For the purposes of this debate, I will set the betting line for David Johnson at:
1,050 yards rushing, 70 receptions for 600 yards and 12 total touchdowns
Reasons to take the “Over”
As a team, the Arizona Cardinals are one of the most balanced and explosive teams in the entire league. It’s no secret coach Bruce Arians likes to run an aggressive downfield passing attack led by quarterback Carson Palmer, and with an extremely talented group of wide receivers in Michael Floyd, John Brown and future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald it’s an impressive show to watch as a football fan. This aerial attack is great for opening running lanes but can also rack up a ton of PPR points very quickly via dump off passes to the running backs.
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In 2015, 60 of the team’s 353 completions (17%) went to the running backs. Of those 60 completions, 36 of them went to Johnson, or 60%. As part of a timeshare with Chris Johnson, David Johnson was able to rush for 581 yards on the ground with eight touchdowns and a 4.6 yards per carry average while adding the aforementioned 36 receptions for 457 yards and four more touchdowns. From week 12 through week 17 when Chris Johnson went down with his broken leg, no running back scored more PPR points than David Johnson’s 123.7, a weekly average of 20.617. His clearly defined role in the passing game is what makes him such an attractive option in fantasy as he shoulders more of the load as a runner. If the team is nursing a lead he should be used as a clock killer. As he proved in the playoff loss to the Carolina Panthers, he can and will be leaned on heavily in the passing game if the team is playing from behind. Not a lot went right for the Cardinals that night, but David Johnson was the best player on the Cardinals in that game, collecting nine passes for 68 yards and rushing the ball 15 times for 60 yards and a score.
More reasons for optimism include the comments made this off-season by Coach Arians when he stated David Johnson “earned the right to be the bell cow”. He went on to praise Chris Johnson in the very next breath but it is David who will have to have the job “taken from him”. Coach Arians has a history of using a two back system but it’s never really been a true 50-50 type split. With David Johnson you’re going to get the passing down back and the clear goal line runner. His weekly floor should be plenty high enough to mitigate a lot of the risk associated with the necessary investment. I’m hesitant to even make this comparison for fear of it being taken out of context, but his fantasy potential is similar to that of Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell. Neither player needs to run for 100 yards in order to be the weekly high scorer among running backs because of how heavily they’re used in the passing game. On any given week they can haul in double digit catches.
Reasons to take the “Under”
For all the reasons to love David Johnson, we have a limited sample size of him as the team’s feature back. Can he handle an increased workload over the course of an entire NFL season? Will teams figure him out? The biggest concern of course is the somewhat unexpected presence of Chris Johnson. As a free agent he was not expected to return to the Cardinals after David Johnson’s breakout end to 2015. It was even reported early last month by one ESPN reporter that he believed Chris Johnson would ultimately remain the team’s starting tailback while he and David form a “dynamic thunder and lightning backfield”.
Prior to Chris’s injury in week 12, David had only touched the ball a total of 40 times on offense while Chris carried it 196 times and adding six receptions. Chris was the clear alpha dog among the team’s running backs. It’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities for Chris to regain his starting role while David stays in the complementary role in 2016. At the end of the day, the Cardinals are on a mission to win a Lombardi trophy, not our fantasy leagues.
My opinion
I’m taking the over. I’m a well documented believer in David Johnson and I love his outlook for 2016 and beyond. I was actually happy to see Chris Johnson re-sign with Arizona because I do not believe Andre Ellington is capable to be anything other than a six to eight touch per game player over the course of the season and I feared the Cardinals would ride David Johnson into the ground by then end of the season. I don’t really care who gets the ceremonial first snap of the game at running back as the “starter”. I want the guy who gets the rock at the stripe and if that guy is the same player who is heavily involved in the passing game, then sign me up! I mean, for the love of God, Danny freaking Woodhead finished 2015 as fantasy’s RB3 in PPR leagues by simply doing those things and Johnson is figuratively and possibly literally, three times the player Woodhead is.
Chris Johnson isn’t even the player I worry about negatively impacting David Johnson the most in 2016, its Drew Stanton. It’s no secret Carson Palmer is the catalyst of the Cardinals offense and if something happens to him they have no backup with the ability to step in and effectively carry the torch for more than a game or two. It would cripple this offense.
In closing, I actually think he’ll easily clear the receiving numbers in the projection but the rushing yards will ultimately come down to the size of Chris Johnson’s role in 2016. Because of the explosiveness of the Cardinal offense, I like his chances to exceed 12 touchdowns this year even though only three running backs (Devonta Freeman, David Johnson and Jeremy Hill) accomplished the feat in 2015.
What do you think? Are you taking the “over” or “under” on David Johnson surpassing 1,050 yards rushing, 70 receptions for 600 yards and 12 total touchdowns in 2016? Let me know in the comments section below.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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