Weekly Twitter Observations

Kevin OBrien

In this series of Twitter Observations, we will focus on some of the interesting tweets you may have missed. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis. Let’s review some of the best tweets I’ve captured this week.

Brady Henderson, Editor, Seahawks reporter at 710  ESPN Seattle

When reading through the off-season notes for how well teams are performing, phrases like “taking his craft to the next level” always stand out to me. Over the many decades of being an NFL fan, the best players always seem to be the ones who never stop trying to improve. So when I hear Doug Baldwin saying that Tyler Lockett is continuously improving his game, I’m taking note. The question with Seattle’s passing offense is whether or not it has the volume to produce good wide receiver performances, and especially when Lockett is not going to be the primary target.

In the last eight games of 2015, Russell Wilson was the QB21 in pass attempts, while Baldwin was the WR3 in fantasy with 191 points. Lockett was the WR27 with 104 points. While many look at Baldwin’s touchdowns as elevating him greatly, Baldwin was WR8 in yards, and WR12 in receptions. Lockett was WR35 in receptions and WR44 in yards. Both Baldwin and Lockett have shown to be extremely efficient receivers – they both have a 78% catch rate and that is important for them if the pass volume stays below league average.

With that said, as with every dynasty player, cost of acquiring the player is part of the equation. Lockett on talent and efficiency would signal a buy; however, at an ADP of 48 (WR33) in DLF’s June mocks, this is right around where I value Lockett as I have him ranked as my WR31. I would put Lockett as a buy, at current cost, but wouldn’t reach much more than his current ADP.

Kevin Acee, San Diego Union-Tribune columnist, http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/staff/kevin-acee/

Kevin Acee has been covering the Chargers practices this off-season and notes that outside of Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates, there hasn’t been much cohesiveness between Philip Rivers and the rest of the receivers. Kevin’s take on this is that for the Charger’s sake, Rivers needs more than just two options in the passing game. My takeaway is that Allen should be able to maintain his incredible target pace he had in 2015, into 2016.

Over the eight games Allen played in, he saw 86 targets, for a full season pace of 172 which would have been fourth most in the league. The reports of the other receivers struggling in practice make me more and more comfortable about Allen continuing to secure a high percentage of the Chargers targets. In June DLF mocks, Allen is the WR11 and I have him ranked as my WR5. I have been buying him anywhere I can.

Adam Levitan, DraftKings analyst. Co-host of The Daily Fantasy Football Edge pod Fantasy Labs writer.

In week 12 of 2015, Rishard Matthews was injured and did not play again rest of the season. Devante Parker stepped right in from that time and got the majority of the snaps left behind. Parker’s totals in that span were 22 receptions on 42 targets for a 52.4% catch rate for 445 yards and three touchdowns. While Parker’s production was good for 84 points in PPR, and WR21, he was still behind Jarvis Landry’s 105 points, as the WR11. Matthews over his ten games had a 13.4 point per game average compared to Parker’s 14.0 point per game average. So while Parker stepped in, I wouldn’t exactly say he stepped up.

In addition to looking at Parker’s production, I looked at his per game numbers. Something stood out in his high 20.2 yards per reception – his “long” gain made up a significant part of his production. The following are his percentage of yards from his longest reception starting from week 12 on: 41.3%, 60.3%, 87.5%, 40.2%, 52.7%, and 43.4%. In five of the six games, he recorded a reception of 33 yards or longer. This is both good, and bad. This is good because Miami has been looking for that deep threat that Landry is not. This is bad because Parker’s usage might be best used similar to that of a Vincent Jackson with few receptions and the one big splash play to pad his numbers.

The consistency in these players is attractive for using in your flex spot, but less so as your core WR group. According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Parker’s seasonal ADP is WR31, which in my opinion seems reasonable as the WR31 off the board. In June DLF Mocks, Parker is the WR21 with an early third startup ADP. While his seasonal ADP is okay, his dynasty ADP is on the aggressive side. I personally have Parker as a ‘buy’ because I want to capture him for what he will do, not what he has done. However, as we’ve looked through his six games of 2015, I can understand why some might be skeptical.

My last Twitter Observation I usually reserve for a fantasy news or informational tweet. This week, I would like to use this section to share this tweet and post by @14teamMocker who is a frequent contributor to our fantasy community, however took a brief break from fantasy to deliver a powerful piece taking on an issue in reality.

With so much information on Twitter, there are so many great minds contributing great discussion, articles, and bits of data, truly a hot bed of fantasy goodness. I will be doing my best to capture the highlights of the week and mining it out in one place for you.

kevin obrien