The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On June 20, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

I recently made the following trade: I give Antonio Brown, and I get Kevin White and two 2017 first round picks. I project the firsts to be one late and one early. Was I crazy to do this? I believe my reasoning is solid, as I think White is a generational talent and this is the last chance to get him relatively cheaply. I love AB, but surely the logic should be to trade him at his highest value? He has 3-4 years of absolute stud performance left but once he starts declining, you lose value. Also, the fact that I can essentially have up to five receivers makes me want to horde upside players. – Wesley in South Africa

Well I don’t know you, and I’m also not that kind of doctor, so it would be exceedingly tough for me to dole out a firm diagnosis on your cumulative mental state! With that said, I have to say I’m not a fan of the deal at all. What can I say? It’s just my conservative nature.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m a Kevin White owner myself, and firmly believe he has some serious dynasty upside. He may even have “generational talent,” as you described, but due to his rookie year injury we have yet to see it translate on the NFL gridiron. We have, however, seen exactly that from Steelers receiver Antonio Brown.

After a negligible rookie season, Brown topped 1,100 yards as a sophomore, and has topped 1,500 yards (okay, 1,499 to be precise) each of the past three years. During that time, his average weekly stat line stands at a mind boggling 7.8/105/0.65, or 22.2 PPR points. Given his only 27 (28 in July) years of age, it’s not unreasonable to posit he could keep up this pace for the next three-five years.

Amazingly, White is only about four years younger than Brown, despite not yet notching his first professional reception. Given Brown’s prowess, coupled with White’s nonexistent NFL stature, I don’t think it’s crazy to hypothesize that by the time Brown slows down, White could already be facing a PPR point differential of 600+ PPR points. That’s basically two elite seasons worth of production, or more. The first round picks could help supplement that gap, but there remain no guarantees that a.) the picks will be as high as you hope, or b.) you’ll make the correct choices.

All told, I’m not sure there is such a thing as a “sell high” window for the man who is arguably the best dynasty league asset. The upside of White and the picks is nice, but if I’m moving a piece like Brown, it needs to start with a guy like Keenan Allen or TY Hilton, and go from there. You might make out in the long run, but a lot of things will need to come together for that to happen – I still prefer the bird in the hand.

I’ve been a bottom dweller for the first few years, but I have pulled off some big trades over the past year to make a big push to making some money. We are a 12 team/10 man keeper league with 15 man rosters. I have nine keepers and don’t have any picks until the third round, but have two picks there, plus a fourth and two fifths. I’m on the fence with what to do with the picks. Do I bank on my current keepers to carry me through, and maybe go for a few DEEP keeper potential, or do I try and round out with some vets? I’d like to know your thoughts. – Jon in IN

For all intents and purposes, I think you need to treat this like a redraft league. You have nine great keepers already who can help you achieve your goal of a championship, and I think you should do whatever it takes to nab some guys who will actually score points in order to further your chances. After all, isn’t winning always the goal?

Perhaps more importantly though, you’re playing in an extremely shallow league, with only 15-man rosters. You simply don’t have the luxury of upside. You need guys who are going to give you reliable production, such that if a starter gets injured you hopefully won’t lose too much on a weekly basis, even if the player is a “dreaded” veteran. If you can get a younger guy to accomplish that goal, more power to you, but there’s just no sense in clogging your roster with guys who can’t help you right now.

I feel I currently have a solid, contending team but with my past couple finishes I’m thinking it might be time for a rebuild. It’s a contract league with no salary cap, and I just received an offer for David Johnson. In return I would get the second and fourth overall picks in this year’s draft, and I could probably get both Laquon Treadwell and Corey Coleman. Being that the only veterans I have signed for this year are Brandon Marshall and Jamaal Charles, do you think it’s a good idea to pull the trigger and go into full blown rebuild mode, make the trade and ride the season out with what I have or decline the trade and roll with the roster I currently have? – Mike in NY

I would make the deal regardless of the makeup of your team. Cardinals running back David Johnson was very good as a rookie, certainly surpassing my expectations (#TeamEllington4Life). He even finished as a PPR RB1 despite not seizing the starting job until about midway through the season, when his fellow Johnson got hurt. He was also great down the stretch, likely solidifying championships for many teams when running back production was at a premium.

As always though, there remain red flags. First and foremost, a mind-boggling 34% of his PPR points came from touchdowns, of which he had 12 on just 161 touches. Don’t get me wrong, he was efficient on the ground (4.6 YPC) and through the air (12.7 YPR) as well, but that’s a massive chunk that might wind up as unrepeatable. As to his receptions, the only other qualifying running backs to even approach his YPR average were Charles Sims (11.0 YPR) and Dion Lewis (10.8 YPR) – I don’t mean for this to sound like a red flag, but it certainly begs the question as to how much natural regression is in store.

The Cardinals also re-signed Chris Johnson, and still have Andre Ellington as well, and local beat writers have speculated that those two could combine for 40% of the workload. That’s certainly no deathknell for potential production, but it does mean that a sizable chunk of David Johnson’s workload could be gone. Moreover, if the Arizona offense as a whole regresses, or they stop playing with a lead most of the time, the game script could conceivably flip into one that’s less favorable.

So if you have the chance to grab two first round picks in this year’s draft, both of whom could and should be the leading target getters on their respective teams, I’d do it. It will aid you in a rebuilding process, and likely also increase the total value of your team moving forward. It’ll also buy you an extra year of contract space, which remains at a premium when it comes to talented rookies. I could see why you would want to stand pat, but that’s just too sweet an offer to pass up.

I’m asking more so you talk me out of my rookie fever. As of now based on my picks and DLF’s ADP data I am in a good position to get eight rookies that I am pretty high on in my upcoming rookie draft. I have more of a developmental mindset when it comes to rookies, but am I crazy for wanting to keep eight rookies on a 35 man roster with IDPs? – Chris Farley in A Van Down by the River

First and foremost Mr. Foley, I apologize for your current living conditions – you must be tired of it by now, eh?

Alright I won’t quit my day job. Anyways…

I see nothing wrong with your strategy. If you’re looking to rebuild and have adopted a developmental mindset, using 23% of your roster space on rookies is perfectly fine. Given that your league involves IDPs as well, the pool of players you can select effectively doubles.

With that said, the only word of caution I’d provide is this – don’t get too caught up in your rookie hysteria. Using the picks you have now is great, and acquiring even more is more than acceptable provided you’re able to get good deals on them. But there’s no sense in selling off your veterans for 50 cents on the dollar solely in the search of the ageist Holy Grail. Again, if the deals make sense you should do them, but if you’re only getting something like a second round pick for Brandon Marshall, you shouldn’t go overboard.

Can I win with a team of Cam Newton, Todd Gurley, Eddie Lacy, Dion Lewis, Theo Riddick, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman and Tyler Eifert? Also, I’m hurting for another tight end. Do I use Riddick as a piece to gain an above average starter there to supplement Eifert’s injury woes? – Mike in MI

I don’t see any reason why you can’t take that collection of talent into battle every Sunday and emerge victorious the majority of the time. You have players who could threaten to be the top positional options at every position, as well as great depth at both running back and wide receiver. I can understand your fears about Tyler Eifert’s injuries, but I’m not one who views him as “injury prone” – the fact is he’s had an assortment of hard tissue maladies, none of which carry with them any sort of enhanced likelihood that he’ll get hurt again. To me, he’s just been more unlucky than anything when it comes to his health.

I also doubt Theo Riddick alone will get you overly far in your search for tight end depth. Though he’s quite useful in a PPR setting, the fact is the masses just don’t value him as such. What you’ll likely need to do is pair him with one of your ascending sophomore receivers in DeVante Parker or Breshad Perriman in order to climb the positional ladder there. With the former, it might get you close to the gold standard that is Rob Gronkowski, and the latter could nab you someone like Travis Kelce (this is not a guarantee, but more a ballpark estimate). At the end of the day though I’d rather see you aim for a cheaper fallback option like Delanie Walker or Antonio Gates, and wait for Eifert to return. This will keep your depth intact, while also giving you peace of mind behind your oft-injured Bengal.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.