Dynasty Debate: Dion Lewis

Nick Whalen

The Case For Dion Lewis (Steve Wyremski)

There’s a clear distinction in opinions regarding Dion Lewis – either you hate his dynasty value or think he’s an ideal running back target. Considering what Lewis did when healthy last season (RB14 prior to injury), I align with the latter group and believe recency bias is clouding the judgment of many. Those down on Lewis often label him ‘injury-prone’ or point to his decline in touches with the increase in the usage of LeGarrette Blount. These concerns are valid, but with the current running back landscape, today’s pass-heavy game, the impact of an abdominal injury towards the end of Lewis’s season and his production even after losing touches to Blount, Lewis is undervalued and a worthy target a May ADP of RB17.

Injury-Prone

The injury-prone label is impossible to refute given Lewis’s history. He’s perceived to be made of glass, but we’ve seen other players carry the ‘injury-prone’ label and produce successful fantasy seasons – see Arian Foster, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, James Stewart, etc. We’ve also seen others carry the label earlier in their careers, only to shed it – see Fred Taylor, Robert Smith, Andre Johnson, etc.

It’s possible recurring injuries cripple Lewis’s career and I understand passing on him for this reason if you’re risk averse, but there are enough success stories with individuals who shed the label or put together meaningful seasons despite spurts of injuries, that it’s too early to bury a PPR diamond.

Impact of Decline in Touches

In the first two games of 2015, as the Patriots’ primary back, Lewis accounted for 80% of the team’s snaps. That changed in week three with Blount picking up a majority of carries and he averaged roughly half of the team’s snaps. The impact on Lewis’s touches is clear:

Scenario Snap % Touches / G
Season 59% 12
W/ Blount 50% 11
W/ Blount (pre-injury*) 55% 11
W/O Blount 81% 16

 

*Excludes Washington game. Left in 3rd quarter with knee injury

 

Lewis’ touches were undoubtedly impacted by Blount, but given his high production on a per touch basis, it may not matter. Like any player, a split will cap Lewis’ ceiling since he’s unlikely to produce at the elite level of his first two weeks of 2015 as a lead back, but the decline in touches may not matter as much as some believe. There’s also the question as to whether the 55% snap count is representative since he struggled with an abdominal injury that lingered. It may be more like 60% to 65%.

Nonetheless, Blount’s impact on Lewis’s fantasy production is even more evident:

Scenario FPPG  Ranking* FPPG Ranking FP/Touch
Season 14.0 RB6 RB14 1.0
W/ Blount 12.5 RB10 RB20 0.9
W/ Blount (pre-injury) 12.7 RB10 RB19 0.8
W/O Blount 17.9 RB2 RB5 1.1

 

*Extrapolated over 16 game season

FPPG = Fantasy points per game

So this mean’s Lewis’s value should be about the RB20 range? Oof. #tooexpensive. Argument over. Nick wins.

Not quite.

There are a few things at play here. I view the above as the range of expectation for Lewis prospectively – a floor of RB20 and a ceiling of RB5. A wide range, but most importantly, these results need to be taken in context considering the abdominal injury Lewis wrestled with leading up to his week six game against the Colts, which then caused him to miss week seven against the Jets and appeared to linger.

Impact of Abdominal Injury

Coming into the Patriots’ week six game against the Colts, Lewis was questionable with an abdominal injury. In that game, his role was limited due to the injury, but at the time, ESPN Boston also speculated the injury inhibited his play. The assessment appears accurate re-watching his touches.

With this game and his week nine exit from Washington, his single digit dud PPR performances for the 2015 season are explained. It’s a very small sample size (three games), but considering Lewis’ games with Blount and excluding the two injury impacted games, Lewis averaged roughly 15 FPPG which would have put him in the RB10 range. Considering what Danny Woodhead and Darren Sproles have produced in a similar role, this is not unreasonable, especially when you consider his ability to produce on the ground with a yard per carry average over four in 2015.

Having geeked out on quantitative considerations, there are also a number of qualitative factors working in his favor:

Passing Game Evolution & Scheme Fit

It’s no secret. The NFL is a passing league. The Sproles and Woodhead types are increasingly fantasy relevant. Backs such as Lewis and Theo Riddick are valuable dynasty assets. The Patriots historically leveraged this talent with Kevin Faulk and Shane Vereen, but Lewis is more elusive and versatile. So, while the Bill Belichick trust and related loyalty to Lewis is questioned by some, Lewis is arguably a better fit in this offense than Faulk was since Lewis adds the passing game dynamic, but can be effective on the ground as exhibited early on in 2015.

Gronk-effect

Gronkowski demands attention. A ton of it. This will continue to occupy safeties and linebackers leaving the underneath scarcely populated with defenders and plenty of open space for Lewis to leverage his best skill – elusiveness.

Adding Edelman to the mix dragging other defenders underneath will often leave Lewis one on one with a safety, corner or linebacker. This should yield Lewis a wide receiver’s share of targets in the five to ten range depending on the week much like it did when healthy throughout 2015 (he was on pace for roughly 120 in 2015). An annual projection around 100 targets is a very reasonable expectation. To put that in context, that’s on the Woodhead and Sproles-level who, with that target level, both produced top-five running back finishes in the last five years.

Current RB Landscape

After the top three running backs, there is very little certainty with current situation and the ability to confidently project a top 10 to 15 finish over the next few years. There are a handful of others who appear to have a stronger hold on their job and future production than others, but at the RB9 or RB10 range, the question marks surface and they’re often strong. With uncertainty about RBBC status, age, role or talent level, I see no reason not to target Lewis in this range based on the above factors. He carries an injury flag, but many of the others in this range have their own concerns. At least we can project with conviction that Lewis will be a PPR fixture and own a solid PPR ceiling considering his utilization and the 2015 centric role he played in the Patriots’ offense prior to the 2015 injury.

To take this a step further, if the incoming 2017 rookie running back class pans out as well as many believe, Lewis has carved a role for himself that is safe as he adds a dimension to the offense that few can.  The same can’t be said about many of the backs currently drafted and ranked in the running back double digits.

Conclusion

While Lewis’ injury history and Blount’s snap share represent potential obstacles to elite production, Lewis has too many factors working in his favor to not possess the potential for strong RB2 or low RB1 over the next few seasons. With comparable valued backs possessing other question marks, give me the boom in Lewis with the bet and hope he’s able to stay healthy over situational, age and talent risks.

 

The Case Against Dion Lewis (Nick Whalen)

I glance at the DLF ADP data every month to see how the public values certain prospects, and compare it to my own rankings. This month, one player jumped out at me as overrated. When I look at his profile, he’s been valued between 40 and 73 since last October. Perhaps it just jumped out at me this month as he’s 56th in June ADP. But to quote Squints from Sandlot, “I can’t take this no more!” I care too much about your dynasty teams than to see them not succeed due to this player. Dion Lewis is overrated.

He was a fifth round pick by the Eagles in 2011. The hit rate for fifth round picks is low. Why did many teams pass on him four or five times? I don’t think his athletic profile shows a quality prospect. Lewis ran a 4.62 40 yard dash, 34.5 vertical, 9’4” broad jump at 5’8” 195 lbs. His closest comparison in those areas is Kelvin Taylor, except he’s 5’10” 207 lbs. Lewis is quicker than fast and tested out with a 4.18 short shuttle and 6.9 3 cone. Wendell Smallwood and Shad Thorton are his closest comparisons in those areas. If Taylor and Smallwood were mixed together, it would make a prospect I wouldn’t be excited about.

Lewis also fell in the draft due to injury concerns, which have followed him in his NFL career. In college, he missed time due to a shoulder injury. A fractured fibula with ligament damage ended his 2013 season. He missed one game due to an abdominal injury in 2015 before a torn ACL ended his season. Can his small frame withstand the NFL punishment or was it bad luck? For a player to have multiple major injuries on only 124 career NFL touches, it’s a concern for me.

Being on four NFL teams in five years is a red flag as well. He was drafted by the Eagles in 2011. Traded to Cleveland in 2013 and was released prior to the 2014 season. Then the Colts signed and released him within eight days in 2014. He had workouts for the Giants and Patriots, but no contract. The Patriots signed him three and a half months later to a future/reserve contract. How many players have bounced around to three teams and finally figured it out with their fourth?

Many have brought up the contract extension the Patriots gave Lewis during the season last year as a vote of confidence. I can see their point to an extent. It’s a two year contract worth up to 2.6 million with only 600k guaranteed. For a comparison, Ronnie Hillman signed a one year deal to stay in Denver for 2 million with only 500k guaranteed. Are you confident in Hillman due to the investment Denver made?

The situation in New England is often referenced because it has historically featured a pass-catching back. However, when I crunched the numbers, I believe Dion Lewis truthers may be disappointed. Here are the highest reception totals each season by a New England running back:

Year Name Receptions Targets Rec. Yards
2009 Kevin Faulk 37 53 301
2010 Danny Woodhead 34 44 379
2011 Danny Woodhead 18 31 157
2012 Danny Woodhead 40 55 446
2013 Shane Vereen 47 69 427
2014 Shane Vereen 52 77 447
2015 James White 40 54 410
2015 Dion Lewis 36 50 388

The average reception total over the seven years is 38.

If Lewis has 38 receptions in 2016, will he meet your expectations? I’d venture to guess no.

Is Lewis a transcendent talent? I would find it hard to believe he’s a better pass catcher than Danny Woodhead.

Despite his positive production in 2015, Lewis had two fumbles on 85 touches and four drops on 40 catchable targets. The fumbles could get a running back benched, but the 8% drop rate is also not good. Woodhead’s was 3.8%, Shane Vereen 3.7%, James White 5.6%, Matt Forte 3.5%, David Johnson 5.3%, and Duke Johnson 2.7%. Even Adrian Peterson had a drop rate of 2.8% and he’s not known for his hands.

Lewis’ touches were decreasing as the season went on as well: 19, 13, 13, 14, 7, 11, 8. I can understand dismissing the last game due to injury. However, 14.75 touches over the initial four games versus nine over the last two.

Continuing with the production discussion, Lewis has only managed 39 career NFL Receptions. Jacquizz Rodgers was in the same draft class and didn’t live up to the hype. Yet, he still managed 156 career receptions. Even Mikel Leshoure had 34 career receptions. I find it difficult to invest capital in a player with very little production at the age of 26 in September.

Lets recap Dion Lewis. He was a fifth round NFL Draft pick in 2011 with a low athletic profile. He’s played for four NFL teams, accumulating only 124 career NFL touches and shown a history of major injuries. The Patriots invested very little money into him and his touches were decreasing as the season progressed. He showed a high drop rate and fumbles with those touches. The Patriots historically average 38 receptions to the best receiving back; yet Lewis has 39 career NFL receptions and turns 26 in September. But people are going to invest a fifth round startup pick in him? It makes me want to scream! I can’t emphasize enough how risky it is to invest due to a six game sample size.

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