2017 NFL Mock Draft Extravaganza: Part Three

Ryan McDowell

So far in this series, I’ve taken a look at eight 2017 NFL mock drafts along with some specific offensive skill position players that should be squarely on the radar of all dynasty owners. In this final edition, I want to hone in on what the experts are projecting teams to do in 2017 when it comes to their first round draft pick. This can tell us a lot not only about that incoming rookie class but current players on said teams as well.

Before I do that, let’s first dive into an overall look at each position based on the mock draft data.

Quarterback

There are a pair of quarterbacks separating themselves from the pack as Deshaun Watson of Clemson was tabbed as the first overall pick in seven of the eight mock drafts. In the one case he fell from the top spot, it was Miami’s Brad Kaaya who unseated him. Kaaya was mentioned in seven of the eight mocks and is the clear favorite to be the QB2 in both the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts.

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Beyond that top pair, there were six other quarterbacks mentioned in at least one mock draft, but none showed up more than twice. Any of these six could be first round picks and there will likely be at least three quarterbacks selected in the first round. The uncertainty with these players leaves their current value in flux. The six are: Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Luke Falk, Mason Rudolph, Chad Kelly and Mitch Leidner.

Running Back

The class of 2014 has become known for its high quality and immense depth at the wide receiver position and the class of 2017 could do the same for running backs. Of course, the general value of running backs in dynasty leagues has been on the decline for some time now, but we’re starting to see a change with back-to-back early picks spent on Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott. There are four running backs currently viewed as elite, first round quality prospects, namely Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb. These four could easily all claim a spot as a first round NFL Draft pick and are near locks to be chosen very early in dynasty rookie drafts.

Across the eight mock drafts, seven included four running backs in their top 32. This would be the first time four backs were first rounders since 2008. Outside of the big four, other running backs who could claim a first round spot, based on the mock drafts, include Royce Freeman and Samaje Perine.

Wide Receiver

It’s no surprise to see a few top wide receivers being mentioned in the first round mock drafts, after all at least three wideouts have been chosen in the first round in every year since 2010. Since Clemson’s Mike Williams was mentioned in all eight mock drafts, he’s clearly viewed as a favorite to help continue that trend in 2017. Juju Smith-Schuster, Malachi Dupre and Corey Davis are all close behind and could help form a strong foursome early in dynasty rookie drafts. Seven of the eight mock drafts do expect the trend to continue, projecting at least three receivers inside the first round. Others who garnered a mention include Conner Kupp, Ricky Seals-Jones and KD Cannon.

Tight End

The class of 2016 is already being viewed as somewhat of a down year for the tight end position, and that was at least partially due to four top prospects opting to stay in school. Those four could make the class of 2017 one of the better tight end groups in recent memory and three of those four were mentioned in at least one of the eight mocks drafts.

Heading the tight end group appears to be the star of the National Championship game, Alabama’s OJ Howard, who were pegged as early as the mid-first round in a pair of mocks. Michigan’s Jake Butt and Virginia Tech’s Bucky Hodges could also get first round consideration. While not mentioned, Ole Miss tight end Evan Engram is another solid prospect who could be a star.

Finally, it’s time to examine what we can expect NFL teams to do in the 2017 NFL Draft, based on these mock drafts. Obviously, these decisions are months away from being finalized, but the expectations of some who closely follow both the NFL and college football can be valuable when making our own player decision in dynasty leagues.

The experts all agree on one thing, the Browns will be in the market for a quarterback as all eight mocks projected Cleveland to choose a signal caller in the first round. In most cases, that player was Watson, as the Browns are routinely projected to own the top overall pick. The expectations are clearly low for new Browns quarterback Robert Griffin III. He would have to reclaim the glory from his rookie year in order to persuade the Browns from option for another position.

Both the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers were projected to take a quarterback in four of the eight mocks, the next highest total. Neither of these should be a surprise. The 49ers are in no man’s land with an ugly competition between Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick. There is a strong chance that Kaepernick might not be around for much longer and we all know Chip Kelly will be desperate to find one of “his guys” to lead the team. The Cardinals are in a completely different situation as they are led by Carson Palmer, who will be 37 years old by the time the 2017 draft rolls around. Even if he has another stellar year for the Cards, they have to consider finding his replacement soon.

The other teams mentioned were projected to select a quarterback in only one or two of the mocks. Those teams were Dallas, Kansas City, New Orleans, Miami, Chicago, Pittsburgh. It would be a bit surprising for both the Dolphins and Steelers to grab a quarterback in the first round given their current starters, but the other teams mentioned here could all use an upgrade, or may need to replace an aging starter soon.

The teams projected to add a running back in the first round really surprised me and made me question how I value some current NFL players. Two teams were given a running back in four of the eight mock drafts, the Saints and Lions. For the Saints, current starter Mark Ingram has performed well when healthy and still has three years remaining on his contract. I’ve considered Ingram a fair safe running back option, but half of the draft experts seemingly replacing him got my attention. The Lions essentially have a solid group of backups, but no proven starter. Ameer Abdullah could change that this season, but it does make sense the team could look for a bigger back to pair with the former Nebraska playmaker.

Three teams showed up with a new running back in three of the eight mocks and they are the Patriots, Browns and Raiders. Each have reasonable options entering the 2016 season, but none seem to be locks for long-term dynasty value. In New England, the Patriots will roll out some combination of Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount and other flavors of the week, ultimately leading to fantasy frustration. The Browns seem to have a solid duo or Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson, but Crowell has been somewhat disappointing and Johnson might not be viewed as an every down runner. Finally, many expected the Raiders to draft a replacement for Latavius Murray, but instead they added late rounder DeAndre Washington. Adding a potential superstar running back to that up and coming young offense could be a difference maker.

Other teams mentioned once or twice as potential running back drafters were the 49ers, Jaguars, Bills, Redskins, Steelers, Colts, Vikings, Giants, Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals and Packers. Only the Steelers would be a surprise as the other teams on this list lack a solid running back starter or are currently sending out a runner nearing the end of his respective career. Green Bay is rumored to be ready to move on from Eddie Lacy unless he can turn things around.

It’s a different situation when it comes to wide receivers. The addition of a first round quality wide receiver is usually not bad news for a star wideout, in fact, it can be good news. Drafting a player such as Smith-Schuster or Williams could be a blow to the dynasty value of a team’s second or third receiver though.

With the Titans set at quarterback and running back following the past two drafts, the mock drafters now expect them to focus on wide receiver in the first round of the 2017 draft as five of the eight mock drafters chose a wideout for Tennessee. With two picks in the first round thanks to their move down this year, the experts have a good chance to be correct. The Titans have a lot of options at receiver and second year man Dorial Green-Beckham is the current favorite of most dynasty owners. The arrival of a top rookie could put the fork in the value of Kendall Wright and it wouldn’t help Rishard Matthews either.

The second team expected to opt for a wide receiver in next year’s draft is another team building a young offense, Tampa Bay. The Bucs are set at quarterback, running back and their WR1 spot, but this could easily be Vincent Jackson’s final season with the team and there’s not much behind Mike Evans. Tampa was projected to select a wide receiver in half of the eight mock drafts.

No other team was given a wideout in the first round more than twice. The other teams mentioned included the Falcons, Packers, Patriots, Cowboys, Bengals, 49ers, Ravens, Raiders, Chiefs, Bears and Cardinals. I’d be surprised to see Green Bay, New England or Arizona go with a wideout, but it’s very conceivable for the other teams.

With only three tight ends projected as potential first rounders, there is not as much data to consider. A pair of teams were twice predicted to select a tight end and one of those (Houston) is no surprise, while the other (New England) was a shock. The Texans have been lacking an impact tight end since Owen Daniels left town and the arrival of four solid prospects could give them the opportunity to add one. In New England, it is clear they like to use two tight ends, but the addition of Martellus Bennett this off-season could cover that need. Id be very surprised if the Pats use a first round pick on a tight end. The other teams expected to consider a tight end were the Vikings, Packers, Titans and Broncos.

This will conclude the 2017 NFL Mock Draft Extravaganza, where I looked at eight mock drafts, some key players expected to be first round picks, a position breakdown and what NFL teams might do in next year’s draft.

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ryan mcdowell